Sudan's army to make 'important statement' as protesters call for Bashir to go

As analysts fear collapse of law and order army says it will address nation ‘soon’

Thousands of demonstrators rally against Sudan’s president, Omar al-Bashir, in the capital, Khartoum. 

The Sudanese army will make an “important statement soon,” state television and radio announced on Thursday morning, as thousands of protesters camped outside the military headquarters in Khartoum demanding the resignation of President Omar al-Bashir.

“The Sudanese army will issue an important statement soon. Wait for it,” a television anchor said.

State media offered no further details, as the rally outside the army complex entered its sixth day.

The news of an announcement from the army came as analysts warned Sudan could descend into anarchy if its political crisis is not resolved peacefully and rival factions within the security establishment fight for power.

The country, one of Africa’s biggest and most strategically important, has been paralysed by months of protests against the 30-year rule of its autocratic president, Omar al-Bashir.

Since Saturday, thousands of people have camped on a crossroads in the centre of the capital, Khartoum, calling for Bashir to step down.

Attempts by security forces to break up the demonstration have killed at least 22 – including five soldiers, who organisers said were defending the protesters – and injured more than 150.

A Sudanese woman holds a national flag during a demonstration in front of the military headquarters in Khartoum.

The area of the main protest in Khartoum has expanded slightly since the weekend, witnesses said. Makeshift medical facilities and water distribution points have been set up while protesters have organised cleaning patrols to sweep away rubbish. There have also been reports of protests elsewhere in the country of 40 million people, including Port Sudan in the north-east.

“These kinds of anti-government demonstrations are not new, but this time a much wider swath of society is involved … including professional classes who for decades were either driven overseas or co-opted [by the regime],” said Zach Vertin, an analyst at the Brookings Institution thinktank and author of a new book on Sudan and South Sudan.

Jehanne Henry, an expert on Sudan with Human Rights Watch, said the current round of protests had been boosted by “a greater mobilisation across the board”.

Another new factor is the apparent split within the security forces. Some elements within the military appear to be siding with demonstrators against armed militia loyal to Bashir and the feared intelligence services. “This is unprecedented. We are in a new landscape now,” said Vertin.

On Tuesday, demonstrators were seen hoisting soldiers on their shoulders while others joyfully saluted soldiers in armoured vehicles.

“This is an obvious endorsement that is better understood as a co-opting of the protest movement,” said Magdi el-Gizouli, an analyst with the Rift Valley Institute. “The events of April 6 and 7 have rehabilitated the moral standing of the army and affirmed its political weight.”

There have been reports of senior police commanders and militia leaders pledging not to harm the protesters, though it is unclear if these have been officially endorsed.

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Protest leaders have called on the army to help resolve the crisis, possibly by taking temporary control of the government. 

Sudanese soldiers flash the victory sign as they stand among protesters at a demonstration near the military headquarters in Khartoum.

“Sudanese always believe that transition should come through the military. All are mindful of what instability could cause. Any chaos could have a very high cost,” said Saif al Din Abdelrahman, a Sudanese economist and expert, in Nairobi, Kenya.

Analysts point to four possible future scenarios. One is a brutal crackdown by security forces loyal to the president. “There could be very serious violence. Massacres could ensue. In 2013 security forces were mowing down people ruthlessly and 200 died,” said Henry.

But Bashir might equally make concessions in the hope of retaining some power, perhaps accepting a more ceremonial role and pledging not to stand in elections in 2020. This is unlikely to satisfy the protesters, however, and would need backing from within both the military and the ruling National Congress party.

The US, Britain and Norway have all called on the Sudanese authorities to deliver a credible plan for a peaceful transition of power. But a problem here is that Bashir faces charges of genocide and war crimes at the Internationalcriminal court (ICC) and thus the possibility of arrest, trial and a lengthy prison sentence if he travels overseas. “It would have been much easier for a transition if there was no ICC. The indictment leaves few options [for Bashir],” Abdelrahman said.

The nightmare scenario is a collapse in government authority and widespread disorder.

Sudanese protesters run for cover after police fired tear-gas canisters at a demonstration in Khartoum.

Pro-democracy activists detained in recent months have been accused by state security agents of making such chaos more likely through their calls for reform, campaigners say.

'I was raised to love our home': Sudan's singing protester speaks out

 

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But analysts say it is more likely that a collapse of law and order would be prompted by the rivalries between different factions within the security establishment, not the actions of the protesters. Militias, soldiers, police and others loyal to individual commanders and political actors might fight for power on the streets of major cities, while remote areas slip beyond central government’s authority.

The consequences of such chaos for the region as well as for Europe and the Middle East would be grave.

Protest leaders say they are very aware of the examples of Libya, Syria and Somalia but are committed to bringing change.

“The Sudanese people have been resilient in trying again and again and this one may be the final straw for Bashir’s regime. We have reached a tipping point,” said Andy Atta-Asamoah, an analyst with the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa.

Middle Eastern protests challenge debilitating Gulf counterrevolution

by Dr James M Dorsey

Much of the Middle East’s recent turmoil stems from internecine Middle Eastern rivalries spilling onto third country battlefields and Saudi and United Arab Emirates-led efforts to roll back the achievements of the 2011 popular Arab revolts and pre-empt further uprisings.

This week’s successful toppling of ailing Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and months of anti-government demonstrations that have put Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir on the defensivesuggest that the Saudi-UAE effort may be faltering.

So does the record of the past eight years. The counterrevolution’s one success, Egypt, has produced some of the harshest repression in the country’s history.

Saudi and UAE intervention in Yemen has sparked one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, tarnished the image of the two Gulf states, and provided opportunity to Iran to expand its network of regional proxies.

In a twist of irony, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, who justify the Yemen war by pointing to an invitation by the internationally recognized exile government of president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, support the rebel forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya.

Mr. Haftar’s forces are poised to march on Tripoli, the seat of the United Nations-recognized government of Libya, two weeks after the field marshal met with King Salman in Saudi Arabia. The fighting in Libya has turned into a proxy war between Gulf rivals with Qatar supporting the Islamist-dominated Tripoli government.

In Syria, rivals Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, who exasperated the country’s eight-year long devastating civil war by backing rival rebel forces, are back to square one: the man they wanted to remove from office, president Bashar al-Assad, has gained the upper hand with the support of Russia and Iran.

The protests in Algeria and Sudan suggest that the social, economic and political grievances that fuelled the 2011 protests continue to hover just below the surface in a swath of land that stretches from the Atlantic coast of Africa to the Gulf.

Like in 2011, protests in the Middle East are not isolated incidents but the most dramatic part of a more global wave prompted by a loss of public confidence in leaders and political systems that has sparked anti-government demonstrations in countries as far flung as Zimbabwe and Haiti.

The Algerian and Sudanese protests come on the back of a wave of smaller, political and socio- economic protests since 2011 that suggested that the Middle Eastern counterrevolution amounted to putting a lid on a pot that could boil over at any moment. Protests have erupted in recent years in a host of countries, including Iraq, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia.

The protests also suggest the fragility of hopes of Middle Eastern autocrats that China’s model of successfully growing the economy, creating jobs and opportunity, and delivering public goods coupled with increased political control and suppression of rights would prove to be a sustainable model in their own backyard.

The fragility of the model is enhanced by the tendency of autocrats to overreach in ways that either distract from their core goals or pursue objectives like the creation of a ‘new man’ that ultimately have failed in countries like Turkey.

Turkey’s Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power for the better part of two decades. Its success suggests that the effort to create a secular New Turk by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the visionary who carved modern Turkey out of the ruins of the Ottoman empire almost a century ago, has stumbled.

Egyptian general-turned president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have taken control and civilisationalism to new extremes by seeking not only absolute political power but also the ability to shape culture and dictate personal behaviour.

Mr. Al-Sisi recently ordered his officials to dictate the themes and scripts of Egyptian soap operas, a popular regional staple, particularly during the holy month of Ramadan. A military-linked production company has taken charge of some of Egypt’s biggest and most successful shows.

Film directors have been instructed to focus on shows that praise the military and law enforcement and demonize the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that has been brutally targeted by Mr. Al-Sisi as well as the UAE that together with Saudi Arabia backed his 2013 military coup. The coup toppled Mohammed Morsi, a Brother and Egypt’s first and only democratically elected president.

Mr. Xi’s hopes to promote ‘core socialist values’ such as patriotism, harmony and civility amounts to an effort to counter individualism, materialism and hedonism. The campaign involves blurring piercings and jewellery worn by male pop stars during performances on television and the Internet, obliging soccer players to wear long sleeves to cover their tattoos, and ensuring that women conference hosts raise their necklines and rappers restrict their lyrics to promotion of peace and harmony.

Saudi Arabia has argued that journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul six months ago by rogue government operatives who are currently standing trial in a process that lacks transparency and has called into question the kingdom’s version of events.

The overreach suggests that Middle Eastern autocrats are unlikely to respond to the protests in Algeria and Sudan any differently than they did in 2011.

Analyst Giorgio Cafiero predicts that in the wake of Mr. Bouteflika’s resignation, Saudi Arabia is likely to support efforts to maintain control by what Algerians call Le Pouvoir (The Power) or the deep state, a cabal of military and security officials and business tycoons, The same is likely to be true for the UAE.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia and the UAE alongside Egypt continue to back Mr. Al-Bashir although he is on the defensive after months of protests that have rocked the East African state.

Whether Algeria’s ancien regime backed by Gulf states is able to retain power may well be dependent on what conclusions protesters draw from the experience of the 2011 revolts.

Like the protesters than, Algerian demonstrators need to decide whether Mr. Bouteflika’s resignation is a sufficient enough success to justify surrender of their street power and return to a structured political process.

Indications are that the protesters have learnt their lesson.

“Algerians are very realistic. This is a beautiful victory, a tangible first step but they know that more has to be done. They are not satisfied entirely … they want all of them to be gone,” said Algeria scholar Dalia Ghanem.

“Algerians are calling for radical change, a change in leadership. They didn’t want Bouteflika, they don’t want Bouteflika’s family, or Bouteflika’s clan — and they don’t want the old guard to stay in power,” Ms. Ghanem added.

Dr. James M Dorsey is a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, adjunct senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and co-director of the University of Wuerzburg’s Institute of Fan Culture