Thursday, April 30, 2020

Coronavirus is pushing the US and China toward a new cold war

Marco Carnelos
The best chance to overcome a coronavirus-driven economic disaster requires US-China cooperation, but the world’s two leading nations are locked in a zero-sum game
A woman wears a face mask at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in Los Angeles, California on 2 March 2020. (AFP)
The coronavirus pandemic is further hampering the already strained relationship between the US and China, with the pair trading barbs over its origin and spread. 
In January, US Senator Tom Cotton, a long-time China hawk, opened the salvo, hinting that the virus might have been released by a laboratory in Wuhan - an accusation subsequently recirculated by the US government. In China, a foreign ministry spokesperson raised the possibility that the virus might have been brought into the country by the US military.
Beijing’s rooted belief is that 'what the US really wants to do is to weaken China so that it completely loses its strategic competitiveness against the US'
US President Donald Trump has been alternating between praise for China and finger-pointing, calling coronavirus the “Chinese virus” - a label Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tried unsuccessfully to sell to the G7.
Beijing has reacted with an assertive global public relations campaign aimed at improving its standing, delivering medical supplies to many countries affected by the pandemic. This activism has fuelled fears that Beijing may use the pandemic to upend the global order.
Some right-wing US news outlets have even raised the possibility that China may be asked to pay for the damages caused by the pandemic, while UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has warned that relations with China could not go back to business as usual without explanations over how Beijing handled the outbreak. 
This is a dangerous path that should not be pursued. Try to imagine the reactions if, after the 2008 financial crisis, the US was asked to explain and compensate for the global damage its reckless financial system had caused? Or if China asked the same for the decades of Western interventions on its soil?
This month, Trump was criticised for opting to cut funding to the World Health Organization. He again blamed China, and the UN agency, for failing to promptly alert the world about the pandemic. On the same day, the Associated Press (AP) published a report, recirculated by major Western news outlets, with the headline: “China didn’t warn public of likely pandemic for 6 key days.”

A man wearing a face mask rides a bicycle on Wuhan Bridge over the Yangtze river in Wuhan, China's central Hubei province on April 16, 2020.  (AFP)

A man wearing a face mask rides a bicycle on Wuhan Bridge over the Yangtze river in Wuhan, China's central Hubei province on April 16, 2020. (AFP)

There is no question that a comprehensive investigation into the origins and spread of the virus should be conducted, and no quarter given to Chinese authorities, but the AP report borders on insulting our intelligence.
Blaming China for a six-day delay is ludicrous, when major Western governments, having known of the pandemic threat since January, delayed for at least six weeks any measures to prevent contagion, with devastating human and economic consequences. 

Strategic competition

On 14 April, Hu Xijin, the editor of Global Times, which reflects Chinese Communist Party views, published a tough editorial titled: “China-US relations will no longer be the same.” The article defiantly rejected US accusations that it was China that ruined the bilateral relationship. “The US does not accept the possibility of China becoming a parallel and equal force,” the editorial notes.
The only China that the US establishment would be ready to tolerate, it continues, is one that would “stop its high-tech progress” and “focus only on low-end industries, unable to compete with the US and the West in high-end manufacturing”. 
In the last three decades, Beijing has invested in research, development and infrastructure, while Washington has conducted endless wars and engaged in speculative finance
Ultimately, Beijing’s rooted belief is that “what the US really wants to do is to weaken China so that it completely loses its strategic competitiveness against the US”.  
image.gifOn the other side, according to the authoritative analysis by Chas Freeman, the dean of US-China scholars, the US position is as follows: “China aspires to dominate its neighbours and to exclude the United States from the emerging Sino-centric order in its region … [and this] dominance … would give Beijing human and material resources to threaten not just US hegemony but the United States itself. The countries of the region are incapable of balancing and constraining Chinese power and influence, so the United States must do this for them.”
Such views have a wide bipartisan consensus. Freeman adds: “In today’s Washington, these fearful assumptions are no longer open to empirical examination. They are treated as axiomatic.” 
In the words of another eminent scholar, Kishore Mahbubani, “The [US] president has divided America on all his policies, except one: his trade and technological war against China.” Even George Soros has been appreciative of this policy. Thus, do not expect fundamental changes with a Biden presidency; it is reasonable to expect that the two countries may move towards an economic decoupling, if not something worse. 

Threat to global hegemony

Yet, there are significant differences in the attitudes of the US and China towards each other, and the rest of the world, that should not be overlooked.  
Chinese leaders see their relationship with the US as an economic and technological competition and, although Beijing is less powerful militarily, it does not portray the US as an existential threat. On the other hand, the US establishment seems unable to accept any threat to its global hegemony. Whoever comes close to matching its capabilities is considered, by default, an enemy. 
image.gifYet, the two countries’ aspirations seem different. The US still believes itself to be the best-performing society in the world, one that everybody should emulate, embracing the American dream.
China simply aims to rejuvenate its civilisation and the prestige it enjoyed before the humiliation experienced between the 1839 Opium War and its 1949 Communist revolution.  
While the best chance to overcome a coronavirus-driven economic disaster depends a lot on US-China cooperation, the world’s two most important nations are increasingly locked in a zero-sum game. 
While US grievances against China are somewhat understandable, Beijing’s impressive rise was essentially a US self-inflicted wound. In the last three decades, Beijing has invested in research, development and infrastructure, while Washington has conducted endless, costly wars and engaged in speculative finance. 
China contributed to sustaining the global economy after the 2008 crisis. While it is now uncertain as to whether it could or would do this again, is it really smart and necessary to open another row with Beijing now?
Marco Carnelos
Marco Carnelos is a former Italian diplomat. He has been assigned to Somalia, Australia and the United Nations. He has served in the foreign policy staff of three Italian prime ministers between 1995 and 2011. More recently he has been Middle East Peace Process Coordinator Special Envoy for Syria for the Italian government and, until November 2017, ambassador of Italy to Iraq.

Palestine activists win landmark Supreme Court ruling against UK government

By MEE staff
Local pension schemes now able to divest from companies complicit in Israeli occupation, after governmental guidance ruled unlawful
A protester ties the Palestinian flag to a lamppost opposite Downing Street (Reuters)
The Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) won a landmark legal victory against the British government on Wednesday, as the Supreme Court ruled local pension schemes could divest from companies complicit in Israel’s military occupation.
It is seen by pro-Palestinian activists as a major boost in efforts to counter the British government's apparent attempts to criminalise support for the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement.
In court, the PSC was challenging 2016 UK government guidance prohibiting public pension funds from pursuing policies deemed contrary to British foreign or defence policy. That meant funds were unable to divest from or boycott companies that are complicit in Israel's occupation and illegal settlement development in occupied East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Syrian Golan Heights, or the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip.
BDS is a highly sensitive topic for the Israeli government, which has close ties to its British Conservative counterpart.
'This historic victory represents a major win not just for the campaign for Palestinian rights, but for the fundamental principles of democracy, freedom of expression and justice'
- Kamel Hawwash, PSC
The Supreme Court decision additionally grants the right of opting out from investments in the UK's defence industry.
Since 2017, the PSC has been taking on the government in court with the support of the Quakers, the Campaign Against Arms Trade, and War on Want.
It won in the High Court and then lost in the Court of Appeal - this week winning a final verdict at the Supreme Court. The PSC challenged that the 2016 guidance imposed a ban on “ethical pensions divestment”, which is unlawful.
The Supreme Court verdict grants Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) funds the right to decide how and where money will be invested.
The pension scheme is one of the largest in the UK. In March 2019, it served 5.9 million public-sector employees in England and Wales, and had a huge market value of funds, estimated at £287.2bn.
The scheme, in which employees pay monthly up to their retirement, is administered across 99 regional pension funds in the country.

'Historic victory'

Responding to the verdict, chair of Palestine Solidarity Campaign Kamel Hawwash said: “This historic victory represents a major win not just for the campaign for Palestinian rights, but for the fundamental principles of democracy, freedom of expression and justice."
“At a time when Israel is continuing to ramp up its oppression of the Palestinian people and its illegal acts … the government should be acting to uphold international law and defend human rights, not attacking peaceful campaigns which seek to do precisely that,” he added.
PSC’s solicitor, Jamie Potter, said: “LGPS members now have the freedom to pursue their own principles in respect of the role of the arms trade and foreign countries in violations of human rights around the world, when determining how their pension monies are invested.”
In December, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson planned to introduce a new piece of legislation making it illegal for UK public bodies to work with those involved in the BDS campaign.
Johnson has long been a fierce opponent of BDS, telling the BBC in 2015 that he could "not think of anything more foolish" than boycotting Israel. 
The BDS movement responds to Palestinian calls to divest and boycott Israel in an attempt to pressure the state to end its 53-year military occupation and safeguard the rights of Palestinians.
The PSC said in a statement: "For some years, Israel and its allies have been engaged in a battle to delegitimise activism for Palestinian rights... The UK government’s attempts to introduce these regulations must be understood within that context."

Cartoon sparks bitter row over Saudi support for Palestinian cause

By Rayhan Uddin
Cartoonist Mahmoud Abbas tells MEE he was not singling out the kingdom over the global oil crisis, as the furore on social media rumbles on
A Palestinian cartoonist's caricature of the oil crisis was accused of 'mocking the Gulf' (Mahmoud Abbas/Facebook)
A Palestinian cartoonist’s caricature of an Arab man struggling amid the global oil crisis has caused outrage in Saudi Arabia, and led to competing hashtags on social media regarding support for the Palestinian cause. 
Mahmoud Abbas, a cartoonist based in Sweden, depicted an exasperated man being pursued by a tumbling barrel of oil. 
“The purpose of the cartoon is to show the oil crisis and its impact on the Arab world and the Middle East region - as it relies heavily on oil as a primary source of income,” Abbas told Middle East Eye. 
Global crude oil prices crashed to unprecedented lows this week, with US oil reaching negative figures for the first time in history. 
One of the catalysts of the decline was an oil price war between Riyadh and Moscow, which Middle East Eye revealed was launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after a "shouting match" with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 
Despite this, Abbas maintains that his cartoon was not about Saudis. 
“I did not mean Saudi Arabia in particular, especially since it was Saudi Arabia that decided to reduce the price of oil at its own will,” he explained. “I am surprised why only the Saudis launched the attacks against me.”
Several Saudi commentators took to social media to criticise not only Abbas, but Palestinians more widely. 
Journalist Abdullah al-Bander condemned the publication Pal Times for publishing the image, and accused it of being “ungrateful”, in reference to Saudi support for Palestinians. 
Translation: A short story
- Abuse filled with racism
- Fear and apologies because of condemnation and attacks
- Threw out an apology and deleted his account
Being ungrateful for favours makes you the worst creature on the face of the earth
Commentator Sukina Meshekhis accused the cartoon of mocking the Gulf, and hit back by saying that while the price of oil will rise again, the “caricatures will remain in the memories” of those they insulted. 
Translation: A caricature from a Palestinian page makes fun of the decreasing price of oil and of course they are mocking the Gulf. How similar today is to back then, a situation which is not too dissimilar from the 1990s when Kuwait was invaded. The price will go up again and the caricatures will remain in the memories of the countries who they have a grudge against
Abbas criticised those who associated his work with the plight of the wider Palestinian struggle. 
“When I draw caricatures, I am personally responsible for them, and no one else should include my homeland Palestine in the matter,” he said. "They also have to accept freedom of expression."

‘Palestine is not my issue’

Shortly after the cartoon was published, the Arabic hashtag “Palestine is not my issue” (#فلسطين_ليست_قضيتي) trended on Twitter, with many Saudis sharing their discontent with Palestinians in their struggle against Israeli occupation. 
One user posted an alternative cartoon in which Palestinians were shown as being raised and fed on “hatred and treachery”. 
Translation: #PalestineIsNotMyIssue 
Elsewhere, a Saudi writer indicated that Palestine was not her concern due to its policewomen joining Israelis to help maintain peace. The Palestinian Authority and Israel have practised close security coordination in the occupied West Bank since the 1990s.
The top reply to that tweet suggested that Palestinians do not deserve “sympathy or mercy” because they lack conscience and trust. 
Translation: I swear to God Miss, after this video Palestinians do not deserve sympathy or mercy because they have no conscience and cannot be trusted. And our homeland [Saudi] is our case, may God protect it from all evil, misfortune and hatred 
Some social media users brought up historical and geopolitical reasons for not supporting the Palestinian cause.
One cited former Palestinian Liberation Organisation chairman Yasser Arafat supporting Saddam Hussein during the invasion of Kuwait, while another accused Palestinians of “glorifying the Turks who handed them over to the West”.  
Translation: #PalestineIsNotMyIssue Yasser Arafat pleads to the King Fahd to forgive him and look past what happened, after Arafat stood alongside Saddam Hussein in the invasion of Kuwait
Translation: Palestinians are not enough for the Palestinian cause. And they will not free it. They were not men enough throughout their history, just servants to those who defeated them. They wait for people to free them, since the Turks gave their country to the British occupation. At the same time, they glorify the Turks who are the ones that handed them over to the West 
Turki al-Hamad, a Saudi analyst and novelist, suggested that while Vietnamese and Algerian freedom fighters resisted occupation from within their countries, Palestinians looked to others to save them. 
Translation: The Vietnamese resisted from within and sacrificed more than 1.5 million people and won. The Algerians started their uprising from the inside, and gave more than 1 million people until they won. Where have the Palestinians been since 1948? Political parties in every Arab corner, yet they cry “where are the Arabs?” and they want Palestine to be liberated. Strange

‘Palestine is my issue’

Not all Saudis on social media were critical. The hashtag "Palestine is my issue" (#فلسطين_قضيتي) has been used to offer an alternative narrative. 
One Saudi human rights activist said that Palestine was the issue of “everyone who is free”. 
Translation: #PalestineisMyIssue and is the issue of everyone who is free
Others pointed to historical and religious examples of Saudis helping Palestinians. 
Translation: From history - Majhoud bin Ghobash al-Zahrani, the first Saudi and Arab hero to heed the call of Al-Aqsa Mosque and go to Palestine to support the Palestinians in the 1948 war. The beloved Saudi people were and are still the first champion of the question of Palestine, and it will not harm them 
Translation: The Saudi nation is one of the ones that love and are loyal to the Palestinian cause, both in word and deed, because to them it is a matter of religion not just about people
Abbas thanked those who tweeted in support of the Palestinian cause and said it showed “the awareness of many Saudis”. 
The debate prompted by his cartoon even attracted the attention of the official King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre, which stressed that the kingdom had provided humanitarian support to “alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians”. 
Translation: Over the years, Saudi has not wasted time in standing in solidarity with Palestine, through providing aid, humanitarian relief and development in all fields in order to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians
In recent months, the Saudi government has been accused of turning against Palestinians, after it arrested dozens of Hamas supporters and accepted US President Donald Trump's so-called "deal of the century" plan to address the Israel-Palestine conflict.
If implemented, Trump's scheme would result in the annexation of the Jordan Valley and illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, around 30 percent of the territory.