Wednesday, May 06, 2026

Ghamidi's Lack of Nuance in Geopolitical Analysis

by Dr. Ammar Ali Jan

Like every scholar, there are many things one can learn from Ghamidi sahib as well. However, his political analyses have absolutely no connection with history or facts. Sitting in the United States, he offers mild criticism of resistance movements in the Middle East, and liberals begin celebrating this so-called “analysis.” Recently, in a podcast with Shehzad Ghias, he went so far as to hold Iran’s foreign and “Islamic” policy responsible for the destruction of the region, even claiming that before the revolution Iran had no conflicts with any country.
This kind of discourse, detached from history and politics, may appear philosophical on the surface, but in reality it is rooted in ignorance and a regressive mindset. Modern Iran had long been dominated by a small elite, against which constitutional uprisings had already begun in the early twentieth century. This struggle reached its peak in 1951, when nationalist and socialist organizations jointly won elections and elected Mohammad Mossadegh as Prime Minister. To liberate a society drowning in poverty and constrained by imperial control, Mossadegh nationalized the oil industry, taking it out of British hands, and declared that its revenues would now be used for the welfare of the people rather than flowing into American and British banks.
Author William Blum, in his book Killing Hope, explains in detail how the CIA orchestrated a coup against Mossadegh’s government, overthrowing it and restoring power to the Shah of Iran. In other words, the first act of aggression did not come from Iran; it came from the United States and Britain, who imposed a brutal dictatorship there. With CIA backing, an organization called SAVAK was established, which systematically tortured pro-democracy activists.
Even in global affairs, the Shah’s Iran was not neutral; rather, it contributed to destruction in the region at the behest of the United States. For example, Iran supported Israeli aggression and occupation of Arab lands and developed close relations with it. It also emerged as one of the closest Asian allies of apartheid South Africa, which had arrested Nelson Mandela in 1962, supplying it with cheap oil used in the oppression of Black people. Alongside this, the Shah’s regime acted as a frontline force in suppressing popular uprisings in Oman, Yemen, and elsewhere in the region. Yet Ghamidi sahib does not consider this foreign policy aggressive, even though it inflicted severe harm on oppressed peoples and strengthened reactionary forces in the region.
After the Iranian Revolution, the foreign policy that emerged differed significantly. Instead of assisting Israel in the destruction of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and other states, Iran supported resistance movements in these countries. In Yemen, rather than participating in what is described as an American-led genocide, it supported resistance. In Iraq, despite deep hostility toward Saddam’s regime, Iran continued to back resistance forces during the American military occupation. Similarly, it supported Nelson Mandela’s party in South Africa as well as its armed wing. It also assisted the anti-imperialist leader Thomas Sankara in Burkina Faso. When Yasser Arafat capitulated to Israel in 1993, Iran became the sole supporter of Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements. This is why Nelson Mandela referred to Khamenei as “my leader.” Likewise, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, and other leftist anti-imperialist leaders viewed Khamenei and Iran as pillars of resistance, as Iran had provided them significant support in difficult times.
It should be remembered that in every instance, aggression originated from the United States and Zionist forces. Even this year, Iran was engaged in negotiations with the United States when these forces suddenly attacked Iran, killing 165 schoolgirls along with Khamenei and members of his family. Ignoring all this history and claiming that Iran is pursuing an aggressive policy is an extremely childish assertion. Were Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon subjected to American bombardment because of their own aggressive policies? Was Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro—who does not even possess a significant military—abducted by the United States due to aggression? Cuba is currently under a severe blockade; was a small island like Cuba truly a threat to American security? Were regime changes in 92 countries justified? Are the 700 American military bases across the Arab world and the globe established for the protection of humanity?
The time has come for people to move beyond assumptions and examine historical and material realities before forming their positions. The cause of Khamenei’s martyrdom was not an aggressive policy, but a defensive one through which Iran sought to protect its own sovereignty and that of other nations. Even today, this posture remains defensive, while Israel—continuing its actions in the region—along with the United States, remains a central force of devastation. Any form of religious or worldly knowledge that teaches one to conceal the oppression of the oppressor and to place the burden of history upon the oppressed is of no value. It is unfortunate that Ghamidi sahib, too, has fallen prey to a pro-imperialist false narrative and now continues to propagate it. However, the public is aware and can no longer be deceived by American propaganda.

“The secret that no one knows about the UAE” 🇦🇪

✍️ Journalist: Jamal Rayan

The truth:

The Jews are behind the creation of the “UAE project.” Wealthy Jews in the West conceived the idea of establishing a Jewish settlement in the Middle East that would serve financial interests and trade activity — without needing to deal with the “mother state,” for political and other reasons.

Since 1971 — the year of its founding — the West ensured the division of the UAE into six, then seven emirates, each with its own ruler, army, police, and security forces, while Abu Dhabi alone occupies more than three-quarters of the total area.

This made it impossible for them to form the nucleus of a unified state.

Even if we accept official statistics that the UAE’s citizens number about 750,000,

what is that compared to the 9 million foreigners living there — from 200 nationalities and 150 ethnic groups?!

Even if every citizen were to become part of the intelligence, security, and military apparatus, they could not defend their country!

What is astonishing about the UAE is that when you enter it, it feels as though you have entered a European or advanced Asian country — with strict order, professionalism, high discipline, elegant streets, and cleanliness —

but it is difficult to find a native citizen.

From the airport to your residence, all dealings are in the hands of foreigners.

There are Arabs from various countries, while the number of flights through its airports — which rival the largest in the world in capacity and services — and the ships in its ports are countless, leaving one astonished!

Is it conceivable that this simple Emirati, in his limited outlook and aspirations, could run such a complex system or machine?!!

The UAE in general, and Abu Dhabi in particular, contain the highest proportion of millionaires in the world — estimated at 75,000 — among whom wealthy Jews form the majority.

This means a secure environment for this massive financial reserve.

Thus, it is not surprising that the one who led Mohammed bin Zayed by the hand toward Israel was the Jewish millionaire Haim Saban.

The UAE is not merely skyscrapers, elegant streets, bustling trade, factories, and workshops —

it is a settlement for conspiracy against the Arab nation.

The important question:

Why does the UAE rank fifth in the world in military spending?

Where is its army?

And what borders is it defending?!

The answer:

All these weapons — both the declared and undeclared deals — are meant for conspiring against countries in the region. There is no Arab or Muslim country in the area without UAE involvement in its economic, political, or security affairs, creating chaos within it. What is happening in Sudan today is not far from this, and what happened in Turkey in 2016 is further proof.

Another question:

Do the Al Nahyan rulers truly possess such intellect to manage all these complex files?

And what interest do the UAE sheikhs have in such deep interference in countries thousands of kilometers away?

Then why do the actual money owners not rule the UAE directly, instead of through these Bedouin figureheads?

This question is answered in the book “The International Jew” by Henry Ford (founder of Ford Motor Company, 1921), who said:

“The Jews prefer to rule the world from behind the scenes.”

Another question:

Why didn’t they choose Israel instead of the UAE as the hub for capital movement — especially since the land of Palestine is fertile, beautiful, and geographically strategic with a coastline?

The answer:

“Israel” is unsuitable for investment — it is a military outpost, constantly under threat, and commercially undesirable in the region; in short, unstable, with a visibly Jewish face in all dealings.

Conclusion:

The UAE has been an Israeli settlement since 1971.

Finally, the largest Masonic lodge in the world is located in the UAE — the central operational point of the global system.

After this report… do you now know what the UAE really is?

#The_UAE_is_a_Zionist_settlement_run_for_the_benefit_of_Israel.


Israelis don't need Visas to enter UAE!

ISRAELIS can get UAE citizenship on application.


UAE. Owned by Zionists 

Administered by Jews,

Managed by Indians

Why has Israel entered direct talks with Lebanon?

 By Batool Subeiti

LONDON - The Islamic resistance of Lebanon emerged to fill a vacuum during a time of absolute Israeli dominance of the country following the 1982 invasion. Its resistance finally led to the liberation of Lebanon.

Successive governments were completely submissive to the Western agenda. Therefore, the Lebanese resistance front became the force in Lebanon that enabled this small country to be the only Arab state capable of establishing an effective deterrence equation against the Israeli occupation entity. This preserved Lebanon’s independence to some extent and kept it from being dominated between 2006 and 2023.

However, during this time, it never confronted internal opposing factions aligned with submissive Arab or Western agendas. Instead, it coexisted with them. It did not impose its agenda. Its presence and strength prevented Israeli intervention in the country.

After Operation Al Aqsa Flood and the open “Ul? al-Ba’s” battle (Arabic for “Battle of the Mighty”), the U.S. and Israeli occupation entity assumed that the resistance movement had been defeated, especially in the period following the supposed ceasefire on November 27, 2024. This assumption came after major losses, including the pager massacre and the killing of the resistance movement's Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and first and second-tier military leadership. The party adhered to a unilateral ceasefire, while the occupation regime did not, and continued its attacks.

At that point, it was assumed that the Lebanese resistance movement had been defeated and that the political consequences of this supposed defeat must follow. The U.S. administration, in cooperation with the Saudi alliance, brought in a President and Prime Minister suited to this phase to comply with American demands, especially since the resistance party had been in a state of dormancy for 15 months, without firing a single shot. The resistance movement went along with the system in approving the President and Prime Minister in their positions.

Then came the opportunity during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, after the blood of Sayed Ali Khamenei unified all, reshuffling the cards. The Lebanese resistance front returned to its core purpose, while the authorities reverted to illusory political effects that do not match reality, pushing toward recognition of the Israeli occupation regime and direct negotiations.

The entity had previously refused direct negotiations with Lebanon. It considered the Lebanese government incapable, as it had failed to dismantle the resistance movement or disarm it, despite U.S. dissatisfaction with Lebanon’s official role and its unsuccessful attempts.

Lebanon issued many decisions, from those of August 5th and September 5th, to criminalize the resistance movement in the south and plans to withdraw weapons, but failed to implement them. This failure was a source of dissatisfaction for both the U.S. and the Israeli occupation entity. Now, suddenly, they have agreed to begin direct negotiations after previously rejecting the idea. Clearly, the main goal is to remove Lebanon from the Iranian-American negotiation table. The aim is not to give Lebanon anything, even symbolically, but to impose what it must do instead of the Israeli occupation entity, namely directly confronting the resistance movement.

The Lidless Eye of Sauron watches us all. Are we helpless?

By Garsha Vazirian

TEHRAN — The name "Palantir" confesses its intent so plainly that it reads less like branding and more like a manual: a candid revelation of the method by which a world is watched.

Taken from the legendarium of Tolkien, the palantíri were seeing stones that allowed powerful beings to observe across vast distances.

In the lore, these stones were ultimately corrupted by a dark lord to deceive the user and consolidate total vision. This metaphor is the beating heart of a company that has moved beyond mere software to become the Lidless Eye of a global surveillance panopticon.

Palantir is not a traditional Silicon Valley firm but rather a digital front for the American and Israeli military?intelligence establishments, functioning as connective tissue between Silicon Valley, the CIA, NSA, Mossad, and the Israeli military.

The Thielverse

The company is directed by a triumvirate of ideological forces that merge venture capital with state secrecy.

Peter Thiel, the founding chairman and ideological architect, is a libertarian-authoritarian deep state actor who has famously argued that freedom and democracy are no longer compatible.

Thiel’s influence extends through the PayPal Mafia into the highest reaches of the American government, including figures such as J.D. Vance, whose political ascent is tethered to a network of new right politicians supported by Thiel.

The ultra-Zionist CEO Alex Karp, the so-called philosopher-king, provides an intellectual veneer of social theory to justify hard power while Joe Lonsdale, the operations fixer, ensures the company remains too big to fail within the state apparatus.

Funded initially by In-Q-Tel, the venture capital arm of the CIA, Palantir has always functioned as a cutout designed to bypass transparency and due process.

A significant portion of its engineering team consists of veterans from Israel’s Unit 8200, creating a seamless revolving door where the same personnel and operational doctrines move between Israel and the American tech giant.

This partnership has transformed the company into a de facto public-private extension of the multinational security state, profiting from chaos and the death of innocent human beings reduced to data points while making aggression cheaper and more opaque.

The kill chain

Palantir’s arsenal is built to compress the kill chain, the time it takes from identifying a target to executing a strike.

Its Gotham platform aggregates hundreds of millions of data points, from biometrics to satellite imagery, to build a rich picture where even innocuous behaviors identify targets for neutralization.

The Maven Smart System (MSS), elevated to a Pentagon program of record in March, represents the backbone of the current war machine.

While the 2003 Iraq invasion required 2,000 personnel for specific targeting workloads, today 20 soldiers using MSS can achieve the same results.

The human cost of this so-called efficiency falls squarely on the shoulders of those who built and deployed it.

The Minab school massacre on February 28, where 168 Iranian students and teachers were killed with multiple American missiles, reportedly after the Maven system misidentified the school as a military site, stands as a devastating reminder of what these errors truly mean for real people.

The assassination of Iranian leaders and scientists also involved a multi-system AI-assisted kill chain where Palantir served as the strategic brain, isolating digital signatures of individuals in residential neighborhoods.

In Gaza, the integration of Palantir data with Israeli softwares such as "Where’s Daddy?" has allowed the tracking of targets until they return to densely populated civilian areas or medical facilities before striking.

This creates frictionless violence, where a human operator merely clicks "Confirm" on a pre-selected target list, stripping away the psychological burden of lethal action.

The techno-fascist creed

In April, the company issued a 22-point manifesto that removed much of the pretense, offering a programmatic guide for elites that recasts war as a data problem and transforms targeting into something that feels like simple analytics.

The document claims Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the military, reframing tech profit as a mandatory imperial service.

It explicitly rejects diplomacy in favor of hard power built on software and suggests that the post-WWII neutering of Germany and Japan was an overcorrection.

Most disturbingly, it establishes a cultural hierarchy, distinguishing between vital cultures and dysfunctional or regressive ones, providing an ideological justification for the targeting of non-Western states as inherently inferior.

This worldview treats civilizational competition as a natural fact to be optimized. By arguing that the future of survival depends on software-enabled hard power, Palantir advocates for the normalization of permanent security mobilization.

Resist the Lidless Eye

To counter a seeing stone, we may have to become invisible or deceptive. But first, we must recognize the nature of the trap.

Akin to Sauron’s Lidless Eye and the all-seeing Eye of Providence, the Palantir feeds on attention. It feeds on our fixation, turning our horrified gaze into fuel for the very machinery that produces genocide.

It wants us frozen, doom-scrolling through atrocity, convinced that resistance is futile. The panopticon is designed to produce learned helplessness. Refusing it is the first step; concrete defenses follow from there.

For targeted states such as Iran, the strategy is data sovereignty: strict localization that keeps all metadata on domestic servers, beyond the reach of Western extraction.

Digital chokepoints that strip identifiers from outgoing traffic blind the mosaic effect. Dataset poisoning, injecting deliberate noise into public information streams, can collapse the predictive accuracy of targeting algorithms from credible to chaotic.

For individuals, the guerrilla defense involves opting out of the machine-readable profile.

Surveillance systems feed on the predictability of digital footprints. Using end-to-end encryption is a baseline, but protecting metadata is more critical.

Anti-pattern behavior, such as rotating devices, irregular movement, and multiple identities, makes pattern-matching prohibitively expensive.

Physical obfuscation with IR-emitting materials confuses the computer vision guiding the drone. But none of this avails if we have already surrendered our minds to the fiction of the all-seeing eye.

Palantir is the Steward of Gondor who stared too long into the stone and became a servant of the shadow. To resist this techno-fascist panopticon, we must reclaim the courage to believe that the stone can be shattered.

Southern Lebanon: From forgotten locality to global influence

 Batool Subeiti

LONDON - It is clear that the main goal of direct negotiations with Israel is to remove Lebanon from the Iranian-American negotiation table. The aim is not to give Lebanon anything, even symbolically, but to impose what it must do where the Israeli occupation entity failed, namely, confronting the resistance directly.

They did not sit with Lebanon to negotiate and give, but to dictate and take. In this phase, Beirut may be pushed to define its political direction toward eliminating the Lebanese resistance movement, especially after the Israeli occupation entity has so far failed to do so. This could mean pressuring the government to carry out this mission, potentially dragging Lebanon into conflict between the army and the resistance movement, or among political factions, and thereby igniting a civil war.

Negotiations were initiated to impose demands while completely ignoring the issue of occupation and Israeli military operations.

Lebanon cannot even raise these issues or demand Israeli withdrawal. At most, it can request a ceasefire, giving the occupation entity the time to impose its conditions. Meanwhile, withdrawal, the return of displaced people, the release of prisoners, and reconstruction are all tied solely to Israeli agendas and capabilities.

The key question is: Can the Israeli occupation regime maintain a stable position inside Lebanon? How many kilometers deep can it occupy to create a depopulated buffer zone?

Security for Israeli forces and settlers becomes the defining factor. However, even with a buffer zone, resistance methods and guerrilla warfare, drones and missiles cannot be stopped, as they can reach hundreds of kilometers. As long as occupation exists, the resistance movement’s capabilities will continue to develop. It can also impose long-term costs through guerrilla warfare. Therefore, military control cannot truly provide the security the entity claims it seeks.

Instead, the goal is to weaken the Lebanese resistance front to the point where it can no longer influence events and to cut off its supply lines, something the entity is pushing hard for in a race against time.

This urgency is driven by international pressure, especially given Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, which reduces pressure on the Lebanese resistance movement. However, achieving results against a strong and prepared resistance army is extremely difficult. Iranian support also contributes to international pressure, prompting countries like Britain, France, Germany, and Italy to call for Lebanon to be included in a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

The global situation now demands stability more than ever due to economic factors affecting all countries. This elevates the issue beyond local and regional levels to global economic impact, something the Israeli occupation entity cannot bear.

Even with U.S. support, it would face a global dilemma, as Iran’s position affects the global economy, including America’s.  Global economic stability and energy supply chains, critical for growth, require de-escalation. The entity, being relatively small, cannot override these major international interests for expansionist aims or settler security.

Southern Lebanon has therefore moved from a neglected local issue to one with major global consequences, greater than the Israeli occupation entity itself. This is why we see repeated European statements calling for Lebanon to be included in ceasefires and for Israel’s wars to be limited. With elections and pressing economic concerns affecting every individual, prices, supply, and purchasing power, the Israeli occupation entity's wars are increasingly seen as harmful to global stability, contributing to inflation and rising costs. This leads to growing international pressure to stop these wars.

As a result, Iran’s allies gain strength and legitimacy on the global stage. This will lead to changes not only in Lebanon, but also in Iraq and Yemen, with eventual recognition of these forces as realities that the West has failed to eliminate, despite massive destruction. In the end, recognition may become the only remaining option.

Quad erosion shows US no longer a reliable strategic partner: analysis

TEHRAN – The Quad, known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is on the verge of collapse as Donald Trump’s return to power has degraded its “geostrategic” significance, says a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California.

Derek Grossman says it is hard to imagine the grouping, which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S., another two and a half years of Trump’s presidency.

Writing an article on the Foreign Policy website titled “The Quad Is on the Brink of Extinction”, Grossman said the erosion of the grouping shows that “Washington is no longer a reliable strategic partner in the international system.”

This is the text of the article:

Last year was supposed to have been India’s turn to host a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit. But 2025 came and went without such a meeting—and now, New Delhi is trying to pick up the pieces by hosting the Quad’s foreign ministers instead, possibly when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India in May. Comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, the Quad is a minilateral coordination group of like-minded powers that seek to counter China and collaborate on various other challenges.

During his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump quietly resurrected the grouping, originally created at Japan’s initiative in 2007, after a nearly decade-long hiatus. Yet since his return to the White House in 2025, Trump has refused to participate, leaving the Quad leaderless and degrading its geostrategic value. This spiral is likely to continue unless or until Trump decides to attend the Quad summit that Australia, as the rotating chair for 2026, may host later this year. If Trump declines again, then the Quad will be relegated to geopolitical insignificance, and it may even spell the end of the grouping entirely.

It wouldn’t be the first time the Quad died. Back in 2008, the grouping collapsed due to some of its members getting cold feet on too aggressively challenging China. Elections had brought new leaders to power with less of a hawkish bend to their China policy. This time around, the primary reason for the Quad’s demise would be more worrisome: Washington is no longer a reliable strategic partner in the international system.

Trump’s decision not to attend India’s 2025 summit appears to have had policy and personal reasons. On the policy side, he demanded that New Delhi agree to a new U.S.-India free trade agreement as a deliverable before his visit. But for whatever reason, the deal was still being negotiated. Additionally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was battling Trump over steep new U.S. tariffs at the time; these levies were later relieved. Trump further harbored deep personal resentments toward Modi after he refused to acknowledge Trump’s role in resolving a four-day war between India and Pakistan in May. Instead, Trump reset ties with Islamabad after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif showed no such reluctance and even called for Trump to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Another Quad member frustrated with Trump is close U.S. security ally Japan. Tokyo seems to have been caught off guard by Trump’s initial imposition of a 24 percent tariff last year. Trump then threatened to increase the tariff rate another percentage point even after trade consultations in May, demonstrating the futility of negotiating with the United States even as a close friend. Only after further negotiations did the two sides agree to 15 percent. The whiplash continued in February, when the U.S. Supreme Court decided that Trump’s tariffs were unconstitutional and he then announced a separate, across-the-board 10 percent tariff.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration originally demanded that Japan spend 3 percent of its GDP on defense. This target was subsequently increased to 3.5 percent to align with a similar NATO figure. At the time, Tokyo spent only about 1.4 percent on defense, meaning that Washington was requesting it to more than double its defense spending almost overnight. The demand was so insulting to Tokyo that then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba felt the need to uncharacteristically and undiplomatically push back hard against Washington. The defense budget, he said last March after 3 percent was floated, “should not be decided based on what other nations tell [Japan] to do.”

Under current Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s security cooperation and alignment with the United States remain intact, but the vibes are concerning and suggest that less, not more, will likely be done between the two countries in the future. Trump recently criticized Tokyo, for example, for not helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of his war against Iran. Japan is also poised to unlock its arms exporting potential, which has remained dormant since World War II. While Japan’s ramping up of weapons production is applauded by Washington, it is actually largely in response to growing Japanese concerns about the U.S. preoccupation with wars in places such as the Middle East. Takaichi clearly believes that Tokyo must do more—and alone, if necessary.

Finally, Australia—as both a Quad member and U.S. treaty ally—also harbors growing concerns about America’s direction. Canberra was kept in the dark about Washington’s decision to counter-blockade Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, for instance. Similar to its interactions with Japan, the Trump administration demanded that Australia spend at least 3.5 percent of its GDP on defense, and though it initially balked, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles announced on April 15 that his country would spend roughly 3 percent by 2033, closer to Trump’s goal but still falling short. When asked about Australia, Trump said, “I’m not happy,” because of its refusal to participate in his Iran war. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hasn’t been happy with Trump of late either, especially with the latter’s threat to eliminate Iran’s civilization, which Albanese considered inappropriate and in ignorance of international law.

Meanwhile, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell has expressed Canberra’s disappointment at Trump’s recent imposition of a 10 percent tariff, even though the United States has a trade surplus with Australia. After the Supreme Court ruling, Farrell called the tariff “unjustified.” Regardless, the damage to bilateral trust has already been done.

Compounding these fractures is Trump’s anticipated visit to China next month, which is likely to send more shockwaves through the Quad. Instead of visiting New Delhi for a Quad summit on his way to or from Beijing, he will skip India in favor of China. For Australia, India, and Japan, the core value of the grouping has always rested on a shared understanding that Washington would serve as the strategic anchor balancing Beijing. A high-profile Trump visit to Beijing—especially if it produces even the perception of a U.S.-China accommodation on trade, Taiwan, or regional security—would raise fears of a U.S.-China condominium that sidelines allied interests.

New Delhi would worry about being cut out of great-power bargaining, Tokyo would fear abandonment amid rising tensions in the East China Sea, and Canberra would see further evidence that Washington prioritizes transactional diplomacy over alliance management and long-term security. Even if no concrete concessions emerge, the optics alone risk reinforcing a narrative already taking hold across the Indo-Pacific: that U.S. commitment is conditional, episodic, and ultimately subordinate to Trump’s personal whims and arrangements, in this case with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

To be sure, the Quad may survive and muddle along—hobbled but not mortally wounded by these strains. But that seems increasingly unlikely given the steady erosion of the U.S. strategic partnerships underpinning the grouping since Trump’s return to power. It is hard to imagine the Quad enduring another two and a half years of this flavor of U.S. foreign policy without losing both credibility and purpose.

If the Quad does falter, it will not simply disappear—it will be quietly replaced. India, Japan, and Australia are already exploring alternative paths to coordinate on security, supply chains, and defense industrial cooperation, both trilaterally and through other minilateral frameworks that do not depend as heavily on Washington’s consistency. These arrangements will be narrower, more transactional, and far less ambitious than the Quad at its peak.

In that sense, the real loss is not just the Quad itself but the broader vision it once represented: a durable, values-based coalition capable of shaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power. If the grouping collapses, it will mark a decisive shift away from that model toward a more fragmented regional order—one in which U.S. allies hedge more openly, coordination becomes episodic, and collective action gives way to strategic self-help. China will undoubtedly benefit—not because it outmaneuvered the Quad but because the United States chose to disengage.

US ability to defend allies, including Japan, falters: analysis

TEHRAN – There is growing concern about the United States’ ability to provide security for its allies in the face of a military standoff.

For example, Japan will release the next phase of its national security strategy later this year, covering 2026 to 2030, Al Jazeera reported on April 24.

The document is expected to incorporate lessons from Ukraine and Iran about drones and supply chain chokepoints, says Kazuto Suzuki, director of the Institute of Geoeconomics, an independent think tank in Tokyo.

Japan has historically fallen under the protection of Washington’s nuclear umbrella, but China’s rapid military expansion has “reduced the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrence,” according to Kei Koga, an expert in East Asian security and the U.S.-Japan alliance, at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

While some of these changes are a response to the rise of neighboring China, they also reflect growing concern in Tokyo about its longtime ally, the U.S., and its ability or willingness to defend its allies, say analysts.

Under U.S. President Donald Trump, many of the longstanding assumptions about the U.S. commitment to defend allies like Japan are changing.

Trump’s shift towards an “America First” policy and combative relationship with longtime allies in Europe has worried Japan. A 2025 survey by Japan’s Asahi Shimbun indicated that 77 percent of respondents doubt the U.S. would protect Japan in a military crisis.

“Everything is focused on the American interest and American defence, so defending other countries is not the priority,” Suzuki told Al Jazeera.

Growing U.S. skepticism in Japan has pushed Tokyo to shore up alliances with other U.S. allies like the Philippines and Australia, while also dimming some of the public criticism about Japan’s military build-up.

“For many years, the opposition assumed that the United States would come and rescue Japan, and therefore we don’t need to have more than self-defence,” Suzuki said. “Increasingly, people are realizing this assumption is too optimistic, and we need to have at least the minimum capability to have deterrence and counterstrike capability.”