By Aaron Ng’ambi
In more than five hundred strikes, the US-Israeli military forces jointly dropped missiles on Iran targeting many prominent leaders, institutions and ordinary civilians.
Most importantly, just hours after those attacks, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a press briefing in which he said that "all significant signs showed that the strikes had led to the assassination of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran.
This announcement was followed by a post on Truth Social from the US president himself, confirming the news. And almost immediately, and within 24 hours of the attack, the Iranian state media confirmed the development.
This was shocking news to many, and thousands upon thousands took to the streets across the country in mourning a man they held in high esteem as a spiritual and political leader.
Needless to say, from the very beginning, the United States and Israel have demonstrated that this war has nothing to do with the Iranian nuclear program, which was the initial excuse, or perhaps the lie that Trump attempted to use to tell the world why America was going to war with Iran.
Trump publicly declared that "Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon," forgetting that he is the same person who told the world last year in June that the US had obliterated all the nuclear facilities during the so-called Operation Midnight Thunder when Trump bombed Iran.
Thus, to come around now and claim that America is going to war with Iran for its nuclear program is nothing but insulting to the intelligence of the people. It is no wonder that this war has an approval rating of 78% of the people in the US against the war.
In fact, this is why the administration in Washington DC has changed the narrative and is now talking more of “regime change” than Iran’s nuclear program. But obviously, at this point, public opinion concerning this war is of no consequence because the American war hawks and political elite are not really about serving the Americans, but serving the Israelis.
This disapproval of the war is likely to skyrocket, especially now that Trump has flip-flopped many times on the reasons for attacking another independent and sovereign state. He is now more obsessed than ever before with this idea of “regime change” in Iran.
Evidently, this is going to cost the US so much that by the time the war is over, Trump's presidency will crumble with it, because “regime change” cannot be effected by the US on Iran without boots on the ground and without massive escalation.
There is no doubt that difficult days lie ahead for the global order as we know it since the end of World War II. Clearly, the United States has set a very dangerous precedent in terms of not abiding by international law, the rules-based order and respect for international institutions such as the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, etc.
The kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela is a classic example of such unwarranted actions from the United States. And much worse, the illegal and unprovoked war against Iran by Trump, without seeking Congress's approval and without going to the UN Security Council.
Therefore, only three possible assumptions make sense as to why Trump even considered going to war with Iran. Number one, this war is absolutely a war of choice, instigated by hubris from the US, because of the so-called successful operation in Venezuela. Hence, after what happened in Caracas, as the US military descended on Maduro and captured him, Trump was both shocked in disbelief and also impressed by the might of the American military.
This excited the US president to think that he could just do a quick operation in Iran with limited strikes. Unfortunately, this cannot be further from the truth, and at best, a worse miscalculation that will potentially haunt the Trump presidency long after he leaves office.
The second reason why Trump may have chosen to go against Iran now is simply due to the Epstein file. Just a few days before the Department of Justice was again about to put out more information on the Epstein files, the US president desperately needed a distraction from what could potentially be catastrophic new revelations.
He stepped forward and declared war on Iran during the weekend, and the following week on Tuesday, the DOJ released more information on Epstein, and no one if talking about the said new revelations or how Trump is in the files with new revelations of rape by a named woman who actually made these claims many years ago and reported to the authorities then, but to no avail.
Any serious analysis on this subject cannot rule out the impact and influence of whatever is contained in the Epstein files on the impulsive decisions coming out of the White House. This is why, independent and alternative media in the US are referring to this war as Operation Epstein Fury, as opposed to the official name given by the Trump administration – Operation Epic Fury.
And lastly, the other obvious reason why the US government has decided to strike Iran is because of the Israeli regime, the Christian Zionists in America, the Israeli lobby in Washington DC and the Zionist donors who gave millions of dollars to Trump’s campaign.
These different groups that have exerted enormous pressure on Trump all share the same religious ideology of Armageddon, which is a war to be fought between the forces of good and evil during the end times. This war is supposedly meant to bring about the second coming of the messiah.
As for Netanyahu, who has tried for many years to drag the US into a war with Iran, his interest is nothing more than breaking up Iran into a failed state like Syria, so that it does not pose an imminent threat to the so-called Greater Israel project. Sadly, there are some Christian Zionists who believe that Trump is such a man, anointed by Jesus to start a war that will bring about the end times.
Regrettably, this is the kind of rubbish that some military commanders in the US are feeding their units to sell this war to them. Over 200 military service men and women launched complaints to a religious watchdog against this kind of misplaced biblical rhetoric.
Even though the United States likes to boast that its military is the greatest on earth, such a statement is not exactly accurate, because the American military is the most expensive and advanced, but not necessarily the greatest. In fact, technological superiority can be a liability in a war such as this one; it is too expensive, and you cannot afford to lose it.
Therefore, you become risk averse meanwhile the other side has nothing to lose. Just a few days ago, at the start of this war, both Israel and the US fired 11 interceptors at a single Iranian missile, spending roughly about $11 million to $33 million to try and shoot down a missile worth $100,000, and failed to succeed. By this example, it is very clear that if this war goes on for weeks, months or even years, it will be the Americans and the Israelis who will pay a huge price.
Actually, the US president will do well to find a ramp off, or an excuse to stop the bombings and end this war of aggression now, before it is too late or before he is sucked into this war too deeply.
Some of the fundamental questions that we need to answer in trying to make sense of this situation are whether the US and Israel stand a chance to win against Iran, or will Iran prevail? And after all is said and done, how will this end?
In order to address such fundamental questions, we have to look at this war from a purely strategic point of view. The United States will desperately have to win this war, but the question is, how does "winning this war" look like for the Trump regime? Is it “regime change” in Trehan or render Iran as a failed state with a US puppet installed at the helm of whatever replaces the Islamic Republic?
Honestly, it is difficult to quantify or define what would constitute a win for the United States and Israel in this war, because the objectives of this war are so vague, unclear and constantly changing. In order to win a war such as this, the military objectives should have been well thought through and communicated from the get-go. Unfortunately, this is not the case with the Trump administration.
Iran does not need to "win" this war by any means - all they have to do is just survive it. The notion that war is about guns and missiles, and overwhelming force, is absolutely misplaced. Not long ago, the US Secretary of War publicly bragged about how the US air force will soon take over the Iranian airspace and “control everything.”
He thinks that by taking over the airspace in Iran, this would amount to some sort of victory. Clearly, Secretary Hegseth has a lot to learn about war – and Vietnam would be a good starting point.
The military doctrine of shock and awe and controlling the country’s airspace is not what wins wars; it’s the people’s will and determination. The United States controlled the airspace of North Vietnam for as long as the war lasted, but the peasant rice farmers of North Vietnam defeated the Americans and forced them to flee after 30 years of fighting for their homeland.
Surely, Iran will put everything into this war and will ensure that it sees it to the end, which is the most likely outcome, because most factors in this war favor Iran in the long term. It's unthinkable to imagine that the US can fight a war of attrition in Iran with only precision strikes; that is not possible at all.
And to make matters worse, the Trump administration has now shifted its talking points and seems to be so focused on this idea of “regime change.” Undoubtedly, the US president and his team have learned nothing from history, because if they did, then they would know that no “regime change” wars have ever been or can be achieved by air power without boots on the ground.
This simply means that, if Trump is really committed to a “regime change” operation in Iran, then he will have to send troops to occupy Tehran, physically eliminate the government in place and then install a regime that plays ball with the United States.
In all practical purposes, this is far-fetched and seemingly a pipe dream, especially since the new Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, has taken over. He is the son of the assassinated Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and knows the job well.
The war of attrition will be very costly to the US Treasury and to human life. Right now, in the early days of the war, it is projected that the US is spending roughly about $1 billion a day; this is not sustainable in the long run. Another disadvantage for America fighting a war of attrition for “regime change” is simply the fact that Iran's fortress landscape of mountains will be nothing but a death trap for US troops if they invade Iran.
They will have no supply for basic necessities, which soldiers need desperately for war, and they will have to rely on air supply, which would make them vulnerable to the locals who know and understand Iran’s terrain. This is why Iran’s foreign affairs minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that if the Americans decide to put troops on the ground in Iran, we are waiting and we will be ready for them.
So, the United States and Israel will do well to quickly realize that Iran cannot be easily fragmented into regional factions as they did with Libya, Syria and Iraq. And it is not even possible to bomb Iran into submission. Thus, the talk of unconditional surrender by Trump is just a sheer waste of time.
These people will fight this war to the bitter end, even if it means sacrificing everything for the cause. So, before things get too complicated, the US should withdraw from this war of choice and give peace a chance. Or else, it will continue to get hit by the determined Iranians.
Aaron Ng'ambi is a Zambia-based political analyst and columnist.
