By Al Mayadeen English Source: Al Mayadeen
Al Mayadeen's "Iran and the World" explores how a prolonged confrontation increasingly favors Iran, citing mounting military, economic, and political pressures on the US, the fallout from the Hormuz crisis, and Tehran's shift toward a more offensive posture.
Speaking during the program The Great Standoff: Iran and the World on Monday night, Johnson argued that Washington faces growing difficulties sustaining its military presence and replenishing advanced weapons, while Marandi said Iran’s ability to endure the consequences of the war is greater because it views itself as defending against an externally imposed aggression.
"Time's on the side of Iran, not the United States", Johnson said, arguing that strains within the US military would become increasingly difficult to sustain the longer the conflict continued.
Johnson pointed in particular to the deteriorating conditions aboard US vessels, including shortages of food and personal hygiene supplies, malfunctioning sanitation systems and serious morale problems among personnel.
He said those difficulties extend beyond the Navy, citing concerns over suicides and morale across different branches of the US military. “The longer this goes on, the more it wears on the personal morale of individual soldiers, sailors, Marines, airmen,” Johnson said.
Johnson mentioned that "One news report indicated that as many as six sailors had tried to jump overboard on the Abraham Lincoln. I had a recently retired US military officer tell me that that was a lie, that the number was probably closer to 30, not just six. And we find that these problems are not confined just to the Navy."
Johnson: US faces weapons, supply-chain constraintsBeyond personnel pressures, Johnson argued that the United States is increasingly constrained by shortages of advanced weapons and its reliance on foreign supply chains. He said China controls critical materials required to manufacture weapons, including Tomahawk and JASSM cruise missiles, PAC-3 interceptors used by Patriot systems and THAAD missiles.
Johnson cited a recent study which he said found that nearly 80% of US weapons systems are exposed to Chinese supply chains, arguing that Washington has made itself dependent on a country it simultaneously identifies as a strategic adversary.
He also pointed to limitations in the US Navy’s ability to resupply forces deployed around Iran, saying the number of fast combat support ships available to sustain aircraft carriers, destroyers and cruisers had declined considerably over the past decade.
Johnson argued that Iranian strikes on warehouses in Bahrain and Oman used to resupply US forces had further compounded those problems. “When Iran destroyed the warehouses in Bahrain and Oman that were used to resupply those ships, that's created a problem,” he said.
“So when you put all that together, time's on the side of Iran, not the United States.”
Marandi: Iranian resilience greater than US ability to sustain warFor his part, Marandi similarly argued that time could increasingly favor Tehran, saying Iran's population has stronger incentives to withstand hardship because the country is facing what he described as an illegal war aimed at undermining the Iranian state. “I think it's quite clear that the Iranians, being the victims of aggression, being on the receiving end of an illegal war, where the Israeli regime and the Trump regime, their stated objectives have been effectively to destroy the country,” he said.
Marandi said Iran had posed no threat to the American population and argued that public opposition inside the United States would grow as the economic consequences of the conflict became more severe. “Iran was no threat to the United States. Iran was not carrying out any act of aggression against the people of the United States,” he said.
He pointed to rising energy costs, warning that higher gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel prices would place additional pressure on an already struggling US economy. “The price of gasoline, the price of diesel, the price of jet fuel, and so on, all of these are going to have these rising prices, will have a very negative impact on the US economy, which is already doing quite poorly,” Marandi said.
Hormuz crisis creating ‘economic tsunami’: JohnsonJohnson also focused on the consequences of developments in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that disruptions there are beginning to produce economic consequences far beyond the region.
He compared the situation to the retreat of the sea before a tsunami, saying the closure of the Strait marked the beginning of what he described as an “economic tsunami” that would eventually hit the global economy. “The minute Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, that was the beginning of, like, the water running away from the ocean,” he said.
Johnson pointed to shortages of diesel and aviation fuel and said governments had so far mitigated some of the impact by drawing from strategic petroleum reserves. However, he argued that those reserves could not be depleted indefinitely. “So the economic realities are going to hit the United States, hit the United States hard,” he said, adding that the consequences would be global rather than confined to the US economy.
He argued that worsening economic pressure would ultimately restrict Washington's ability to carry out further large-scale military operations against Iran.
Iran preparing to ‘go on the offensive’
Marandi, meanwhile, said that Tehran is not prepared to give Washington unlimited time and argued that developments within Iran's national security establishment point toward an increasingly offensive strategy.
He specifically cited Major General Mohsen Rezaei's appointment to a leading role in the Supreme National Security Council.
“I think it's very clear that the appointment of Major General Mohsen Rezaei as the chair of the Supreme National Security Council and the representative of the leader in that council is sending a strong message that Iran is going to go on the offensive,” Marandi said.
Johnson also emphasized Rezaei's significance, describing him as an experienced military and national security figure whose role should be taken seriously by US intelligence agencies.
He praised Rezaei's experience in building the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps into a central component of Iran's national security structure and said his return to a senior position should not be underestimated in Washington.
Marandi said Iran intends to exploit what it sees as growing American vulnerabilities despite acknowledging that a prolonged war would impose difficulties on Tehran as well. “Iran is going to press its advantage,” he said.
“War is war. But Iran is determined to make sure that Trump fails, not only with regards to Iran, but also across the region in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Yemen, and in Iraq.”
Johnson: Washington misreading Iran's economic positionJohnson argued that the Trump administration is also underestimating Iran's ability to resist economic pressure.
He said Washington appears to believe that Iran's economy can be pushed toward collapse through sustained sanctions and wartime pressure, but argued that Tehran is now in a stronger geopolitical position than when the JCPOA was signed.
“At that time, Iran really was isolated relative to the rest of the world. That's not the case today. Today Iran is in strong partnership with both Russia and China,” Johnson said. He also pointed to Iran's commercial links with Pakistan and transportation routes through the Caspian Sea and Eurasia as factors reducing Tehran's isolation.
Johnson further claimed that Russia and China have provided Iran with military equipment and intelligence assistance that has played an important role during the confrontation. He argued that Washington's inability to maintain some of its regional military positions showed that the assumption that sustained pressure would force Tehran to capitulate had failed.
Oman, Hormuz arrangement unlikely to be implemented during warBoth guests also addressed negotiations involving Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Johnson interpreted US President Donald Trump's threats toward Oman as a sign that Tehran and Muscat may be close to reaching an understanding on management of the strategic waterway.
“When I heard that threat issued last night, all I said was this is confirmation that Iran and Oman must be very close to announcing a negotiated settlement regarding how they're going to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz,” Johnson said. He suggested that Oman may also have accepted a proposed fee structure for vessels moving through the Strait.
Marandi said there were effectively no outstanding obstacles between Tehran and Muscat. “There are no obstacles. The two sides are basically in agreement with the way forward,” he said. However, he argued that formally signing an agreement while the war continues would have little practical meaning.
He said the Strait remains largely closed, with only a limited number of vessels allowed through with Iranian permission, including ships belonging to friendly countries and states that did not participate in the war against Iran. “If Iran and Oman sign a piece of paper, it's not going to have any impact,” he said, suggesting that the arrangement could instead be formalized once conditions allow it to be implemented.
Marandi maintained that Iran intends to continue exercising control over the waterway. “Iran has said very clearly that it will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz. It will have oversight over all ships that enter the Persian Gulf or leave the Persian Gulf. And it will charge fees for all ships,” he said.
Marandi challenges Reuters reports citing Iranian officialsDuring the discussion, Marandi also challenged Reuters reports attributed to unnamed senior Iranian officials, claiming that senior officials in Tehran do not speak to the agency. “Senior Iranian officials do not speak to Reuters. Not now, not in the past, and not in the future,” he said.
Marandi stated that information appearing in Iranian media is sometimes subsequently attributed by Reuters to unnamed senior officials.
He cited his experience accompanying Iranian nuclear negotiating teams in Vienna during talks led by Ali Bagheri Kani and Mohammad Javad Zarif, claiming that reports attributed to Iranian officials during those negotiations did not reflect actual conversations with them. “I would be very careful about anything that Reuters says about Iran, but in particular when Reuters quotes senior Iranian officials,” Marandi said.
Marandi rejects Iranian role in northern Iraq attackMarandi also rejected accusations that Iran was responsible for a recent attack in northern Iraq, pointing to Tehran's public denial.
He distinguished between Iranian operations targeting armed groups based in northern Iraq and attacks against Iraqi state institutions. “There's been no history of Iran ever targeting state institutions in northern Iraq or anywhere in Iraq,” he said.
"When Iran strikes, Iran takes responsibility, and Iran has clearly denied responsibility for this".
Marandi argued that the incident instead benefited Washington and the Israeli occupation and urged authorities in northern Iraq not to adopt positions that could advance US or Israeli interests in the region.
