Saturday, October 10, 2026

“Cult of Death”? Check your calling card, Mr. Rubio

 By Mohammad Sarfi, Editor-in-Chief

TEHRAN — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed Iran in parts of his Wednesday evening speech at the Acropolis in Athens. Taken as a whole, his speech was a selective reading of history; a flimsy version of Samuel Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations." When the argument is flimsy, a theatrical stage must inevitably be built out of historical symbols. The audience is meant to be impressed by the backdrop, not by the force of the reasoning.

The same logic applies to the war. When a war is launched without careful calculation, on the basis of impulsive, gut-feel decisions, a civilizational and historical veneer must later be tailored to justify it. Rubio's colleague, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, has gone even further, seeking to legitimize the same action with religious and evangelical language.

I do not intend here to critique every aspect of Rubio's speech. Other observers have, to some extent, already done so, particularly from a historical perspective. What is striking to me is where Rubio called the Islamic Republic of Iran a "cult of death."

The phrase reminded me of George W. Bush's "axis of evil" after September 11. The pattern is the same: manufacturing a label to evade accountability. Most of the perpetrators of those attacks were Saudi nationals, and no documented link to Iran was ever proven, yet the then-US president chose to point the finger at Iran. Twenty-five years later, the victims' families remain aggrieved by Riyadh's lack of accountability and by the appeasement of the matter by US administrations — Republican and Democratic alike.

Labeling Iran a "cult of death" is, first and foremost, an insult to the intelligence of that speech's audience. One need only review the record of the seven-month war:

Who attacked a school in Minab on the first day of the war? Who targeted Iran's bridges, roads, and civilian infrastructure?

Thousands of civilians were killed in these attacks, some 300 of them schoolchildren alone. The unarmed vessel Dena was also sunk in waters near Sri Lanka, killing more than a hundred sailors. Trump later stated bluntly that we did it for fun.

Nor is this record limited to that. Who threatened, even at the UN General Assembly, the complete annihilation of the Iranian nation and civilization? And who, by supporting Israel's operations in Gaza, became complicit in the killing of more than 20,000 children?

Ten days ago, the US Secretary of War said bluntly at the Marine Corps base in Quantico, Virginia: " Lethality is our calling card." The remark was shocking, but at least it was honest. An army that sets in motion under the slogans of counterterrorism, freedom, and democracy — what has it brought the targeted nations in practice but death and destruction?

So with this record, who truly deserves the label of "cult of death"? Answering that question requires no complex research. It requires only a modicum of courage and a refusal to close one's eyes to reality.

The Trump administration claims that all this killing was carried out to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The bitter irony of our time is that the only country in history to have used the atomic bomb, killing hundreds of thousands, regards itself as the world's nuclear policeman.

When the Israeli regime, even after the genocide in Gaza, calls itself "the most moral army in the world," it is hardly surprising that the US Secretary of State should also call Iran a "cult of death."

The issue here is not the misreading of history. It is the attempt to turn history into a license for war and atrocity. 

Pezeshkian Calls for Regional Integration, Multipolar Cooperation at Turkmenistan Summits

TEHRAN— Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for deeper regional integration, stronger economic and transport connectivity, and closer cooperation among neighboring countries, proposing a new “CIS+1” framework to expand Iran’s engagement with members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Addressing the CIS leaders’ summit in Turkmenistan on Friday, Pezeshkian emphasized that regional security, economic development and political stability are inseparable, arguing that countries must strengthen their collective capabilities rather than allow external pressures and geopolitical rivalries to undermine cooperation.

His remarks came as he attended two major regional gatherings in Turkmenistan: the CIS leaders’ summit and an extraordinary summit of Caspian Sea littoral states focused on environmental challenges. On the sidelines, the Iranian president held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Secretary General Nurlan Yermekbayev, and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov.

Across his speeches and bilateral meetings, Pezeshkian emphasized a common set of priorities: expanding trade and transit links, accelerating joint projects, safeguarding the Caspian Sea, strengthening ties with neighboring countries and advancing a multilateral international order based on dialogue, sovereignty and mutual respect.

 'CIS+1’ framework to strengthen regional connectivity

Pezeshkian described the CIS summit as an opportunity to reinforce existing relationships and open a new chapter in regional cooperation, thanking Turkmenistan for inviting Iran as the gathering’s first special guest.

He proposed establishing a “CIS+1” format to provide a structured framework for cooperation between Iran and CIS member states in trade, energy, transportation, investment, mining, technology, tourism, water management, environmental protection, and scientific and cultural exchanges.

The initiative, he said, could also facilitate joint responses to challenges such as climate change, water scarcity, organized crime, and drug trafficking.

Pezeshkian argued that recent regional and international crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-Israeli military attacks against Iran, had demonstrated the interconnected nature of security and stability.

Countries cannot expect to preserve their own security and pursue economic development while insecurity, economic pressure and instability spread elsewhere in their neighborhood, he said.

The Iranian president also criticized the use of trade, banking, technology, energy and international financial systems as instruments of political pressure, warning that such measures have consequences extending beyond bilateral relations and can undermine regional commerce, investment and economic development.

He maintained that resilience against external shocks and disruptions depends on connecting national capabilities and infrastructure.

“Our shared interests lie not in competition between routes, but in connecting routes,” Pezeshkian said.

Iran positions itself as a regional transit hub

The Iranian president highlighted Iran’s geographical position as a natural link between Central Asia, Eurasia and international markets, particularly through its southern ports on the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

He singled out Chabahar Port as a strategic gateway capable of connecting Central Asian countries with South Asia, Africa and Europe.

Pezeshkian also welcomed the prospect of implementing a Turkmenistan proposal at the United Nations General Assembly for a transport corridor linking Central Asia, South Asia and Europe through the Caspian region, saying Iran’s infrastructure and geographical position could contribute to the initiative.

He called for the North-South and East-West transport corridors to be developed as complementary components of an integrated regional network rather than competing projects.

The president also urged regional countries to expand cooperation in oil, natural gas, electricity and renewable energy, while exploring practical financial arrangements and barter mechanisms to facilitate trade and sustain economic exchanges despite external restrictions.

He said stronger regional connectivity should be accompanied by genuine multilateralism, with countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus and neighboring regions playing a more active role in shaping an emerging multipolar world.

“We want connectivity instead of fragmentation, cooperation instead of exhausting competition, interdependence instead of one-sided dependence, and security based on trust and shared interests instead of threats,” Pezeshkian said.

He stressed that regional diplomacy must go beyond summit declarations and become an effective mechanism for managing crises, preventing conflicts from spreading and translating political commitments into practical cooperation.

Pezeshkian calls for coordinated action to protect Caspian Sea

Addressing the extraordinary summit of Caspian littoral states, Pezeshkian warned that declining water levels, climate change, pollution and damage to natural habitats pose serious threats to the region’s environment, economy and coastal communities.

He said the Caspian Sea’s interconnected ecosystem could not be protected through isolated national efforts, calling for joint scientific research, information-sharing and coordinated environmental policies among its five coastal countries.

The Iranian president identified the Tehran Convention as the principal legally binding regional framework for protecting the Caspian marine environment and urged its signatories to strengthen implementation rather than limit their efforts to monitoring environmental deterioration.

He called for a transition toward 'joint crisis management,' backed by scientific evidence, sustained political commitment and concrete measures.

Pezeshkian welcomed the decision to establish a high-level commission comprising deputy heads of government from the Caspian littoral states and proposed a long-term regional program under the Tehran Convention to address the sea’s falling water levels.

The proposed program, he said, should include coordinated scientific monitoring, marine pollution control, biodiversity protection, restoration of wetlands and natural habitats, adaptation of ports and coastal infrastructure, support for fisheries and local communities, and the provision of adequate funding and technology.

The president also warned against allowing the Caspian to become an arena for geopolitical rivalry or intervention by extra-regional powers, arguing that lasting security depends on respecting the sovereignty and legitimate interests of all littoral states.

He called for the condemnation of attacks on coastal facilities, ports, vessels and other maritime infrastructure, citing the attack on Iran’s Anzali port during the US-Israeli war against Iran and an armed Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel. He warned that such incidents could endanger regional stability and cause environmental damage extending beyond national borders.

Pezeshkian urged the coastal states to choose scientific cooperation and collective action over passively accepting the Caspian’s environmental decline.

“Our choice is cooperation; our choice is science; our choice is protecting the Caspian,” he said, describing preservation of the sea as a shared historical responsibility toward future generations.

Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic partnership

In his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pezeshkian called for accelerating bilateral cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture, transportation, and other economic sectors, as well as strengthening humanitarian and people-to-people ties.

The two presidents reviewed progress in bilateral relations and emphasized the need to expedite the completion of joint projects and implement agreements under their comprehensive strategic cooperation framework.

Pezeshkian described the current period as an important opportunity to deepen ties, expressing satisfaction with the progress achieved and calling for faster implementation of bilateral plans.

He also welcomed Moscow’s opposition to unilateralism and called for greater coordination between Tehran and Moscow in support of multilateral cooperation at the regional and international levels.

Turning to the conflict involving Iran, the Iranian president reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to diplomacy, while criticizing repeated US attacks following negotiations.

“We are in talks, but every time we negotiate with the US, they attack again. However, we will not withdraw from the negotiating table or abandon dialogue,” Pezeshkian said.

He explained that Iran had submitted proposals and that Washington had presented new ones. Tehran was reviewing and revising the proposals, he said, adding that once the revisions were finalized, the parties would meet through existing intermediaries to discuss and consolidate them.

Pezeshkian stressed that Iran’s objective was to end the war while ensuring that the rights of the Iranian nation were respected under international law. He warned, however, that a settlement based on unilateral demands would not be acceptable.

Putin, for his part, welcomed the expansion of relations with Iran and said cooperation between the two countries was growing. He emphasized the need to resolve the regional crisis through diplomatic means, noting that Iran had put forward new proposals aimed at ending the war.

SCO needs to strengthen independence, implement commitments

In a separate meeting with SCO Secretary General Nurlan Yermekbayev, Pezeshkian called on the organization to ensure that its decisions were guided by the collective interests of its members rather than the domestic policies or external pressure of the United States.

He said multilateral organizations such as the SCO and BRICS were established to provide common frameworks for cooperation in finance, trade, economics, security and political affairs.

Allowing Washington’s policies to influence decisions taken by these organizations, he warned, could undermine their unity and effectiveness. He specifically questioned why some SCO decisions concerning Iran continued to be shaped by considerations of the US position.

Pezeshkian urged member states to strengthen independent regional cooperation and pursue dialogue rather than coercion, emphasizing that relations with neighboring countries should not be constrained by the preferences of distant powers.

He also called for greater attention to implementing agreements, arguing that summit declarations would have little value without concrete action.

Yermekbayev agreed on the importance of multilateralism but emphasized that implementing decisions required practical mechanisms and consensus among member states. He proposed compiling a list of outstanding agreements with Iran so they could be pursued through ambassadors and national representatives.

The SCO secretary general also reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to peace, respect for territorial integrity, and the non-use of force. He noted that all countries have the right to peaceful nuclear energy while adhering to nuclear non-proliferation principles.

Tehran seeks stronger ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan

Pezeshkian’s discussions with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan further underscored Iran’s emphasis on strengthening relations with neighboring countries and expanding regional cooperation.

In his meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the Iranian president highlighted the considerable potential for expanding bilateral relations and called for sustained coordination, communication and mutual trust.

He stressed that the two neighboring countries should take advantage of their geographical proximity and existing opportunities to deepen cooperation across a range of sectors. Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s readiness to develop relations with Armenia and expressed hope that bilateral engagement would continue to expand.

In talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the two sides reviewed bilateral relations and explored ways to make fuller use of existing economic and political capacities.

Both presidents emphasized the importance of accelerating the implementation of joint agreements, completing ongoing projects and strengthening cooperation in trade, the economy, transit and regional affairs.

They also called for continued dialogue and constructive consultations between officials to advance shared interests and reinforce good-neighborly relations.

The meetings reflected Tehran’s broader approach of prioritizing engagement with neighboring countries as a means of promoting regional stability, expanding economic opportunities and improving connectivity across the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Pezeshkian also met with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, during which the two presidents stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of previously agreed projects and make better use of existing opportunities to strengthen bilateral ties.

Regional cooperation and issues concerning the Caspian Sea were also discussed. Both sides underscored the importance of closer coordination among Caspian littoral states, protecting the sea’s environment and expanding joint initiatives in pursuit of the shared interests of countries in the region.

From regional dialogue to practical cooperation

Taken together, Pezeshkian’s speeches and meetings in Turkmenistan outlined an agenda centered on regional integration, economic interdependence, environmental responsibility and diplomatic engagement.

His proposed “CIS+1” format would provide an additional mechanism for connecting Iran with Central Asian and Eurasian economies, while expanded cooperation with Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan could help advance shared infrastructure and trade objectives.

At the same time, his calls for protecting the Caspian Sea and strengthening the SCO highlighted Tehran’s argument that regional institutions must translate common interests into practical action and resist the destabilizing effects of geopolitical rivalry.

The broader message from the Iranian president’s participation in the two summits was that geography has already connected the countries of Central Asia, the South Caucasus and the Caspian region. The challenge, he argued, is to turn that geographical reality into a durable framework for shared security, sustainable development and regional prosperity. 

Trump loses Nobel again as jurist behind Gaza genocide findings takes prize

 By staff writer

TEHRAN — Donald Trump has repeatedly shown his desperation to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize, but the Norwegian Nobel Committee handed it to the legal investigator who exposed Israeli genocide in Gaza.

On Friday, October 9, the committee announced that it awarded the 2026 prize to Navanethem “Navi” Pillay, the 85-year-old South African jurist who led the United Nations commission documenting systemic war crimes by Israel against Palestinians.

The decision amounts to a direct rebuke to the American president, who spent months insisting that passing him over would discredit the committee.

Trump repeatedly touted his “diplomatic” record, claiming credit for ending regional conflicts while promoting normalization deals that sidelined Palestinian self-determination and advanced Washington’s regional agenda.

Yet his administration joined Israel in launching a war on Iran on February 28, while nuclear negotiations were underway.

The war has exacted a devastating civilian toll. The Minab school massacre, during which the U.S. killed at least 155 people, most of them children, stands as one of its deadliest episodes.

U.S. strikes also killed at least 21 civilians in Lamerd and killed five people and wounded 67 in a bombing near a wedding celebration in Kuhestak.

The Nobel Committee rejected Trump’s political pressure, choosing instead to honor a veteran anti-apartheid jurist whose work has challenged Israeli impunity and placed Washington’s support for its closest regional ally under renewed scrutiny.

In September 2025, Pillay’s UN commission published a definitive finding concluding that Israeli authorities and military forces had committed four acts of genocide in Gaza under the 1948 Genocide Convention.

The report specifically cited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other high-ranking officials for incitement to genocide and weaponized starvation.

Pillay, a former judge on the International Criminal Court, has spent decades holding powerful states accountable, making her recognition a severe blow to Israeli impunity.

The award also highlights persistent efforts by the United States and Tel Aviv to dismantle international justice.

Washington has heavily sanctioned the International Criminal Court, while Israeli officials reject legal jurisdiction and dismiss evidence of their atrocities as fabrications.

Pillay’s win places those documented crimes back on the international agenda, even as American financial and military support for Israel’s genocidal war machine continues uninterrupted across the region.

Yet the Nobel Peace Prize itself has a controversial and deeply contradictory history. The Oslo committee has repeatedly bestowed its honors on Western warmongers and foreign proxies, from Henry Kissinger during American carpet bombings in Vietnam to Barack Obama during widespread drone warfare and sanctions targeting civilians.

Independent observers have long criticized this pattern, noting how the prize often bestows misplaced laurels on figures with blood on their hands to validate Western hegemony.

Saudi Arabia will never break Yemen’s resistance: Ansarallah leader

 By staff writer

TEHRAN — Speaking on the tenth anniversary of the Saudi airstrike on Sanaa’s Great Hall, Ansarallah leader Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared Thursday that Riyadh’s decade-long war to subjugate Yemen has collapsed into a strategic failure.

The October 2016 massacre, which left roughly 1,000 mourners dead or wounded inside a crowded funeral hall, remains a stark monument to Saudi war crimes carried out with direct American support.

The Ansarallah leader emphasized that every governorate across Yemen has suffered identical atrocities, with civilian homes, markets, and schools systematically targeted in a failed effort to force submission.

Al-Houthi dismantled the Saudi monarchy’s religious posturing, arguing that its claim to guard Islam’s holiest sanctuaries rings hollow.

The sword emblazoned on the Saudi flag has never drawn blood in defense of Muslims, he observed, but has consistently served Zionist and American ambitions to fragment the region and isolate the Resistance Front.

The address coincided with a sharp escalation on the ground.

On Thursday, the Yemeni Armed Forces shot down a Saudi-operated Turkish Bayraktar Akinci drone over Taiz and launched a ballistic missile strike at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, disrupting flight operations and triggering widespread alarms.

Parallel missile strikes hit Saudi troop concentrations at the Qa’wah camp near Ras al-Ara and positions along the Bab al-Mandab approach, inflicting dozens of casualties and detonating enemy ammunition depots.

Addressing regional governments, al-Houthi issued a direct warning to Qatar regarding its renewed political and media alignment with Saudi policies.

He reminded leadership in Doha that its previous involvement in the coalition against Yemen did not prevent Riyadh and Bahrain’s Al Khalifa regime from plotting regime change in Qatar and imposing a suffocating blockade.

Assisting Saudi Arabia now, the Ansarallah leader cautioned, makes Doha complicit in war crimes while exposing it once again to betrayal by its alleged allies.

Al-Houthi affirmed that Yemeni forces hold full operational authority to strike enemy assets across the Red Sea and Arabian Sea from any point in the country.

Rebuffing Western media claims, he placed full blame for maritime instability on Saudi and American militarization around Bab al-Mandab.

Iran’s leader praises police as a 'key pillar of national security'

TEHRAN— Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei has praised the courage, sacrifices and steadfastness of Iran’s police personnel, describing the force as a key pillar of national security and highlighting its role in maintaining public order during the US-Israeli attacks on the country.

In a message marking National Police Week, the Leader, who also serves as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, stressed that security is among God’s greatest blessings and credited police personnel with helping preserve it across Iran, from major urban centers and remote villages to the country’s borders and diverse geographical regions.

He said the force’s demanding responsibilities, often carried out under harsh weather conditions and across challenging terrain, underpin the security necessary for public welfare and social well-being.

Police steadfastness during wartime

Ayatollah Khamenei said the contribution of the police had become increasingly evident in recent years, particularly during the 'Second and Third Imposed Wars.'

He pointed to attacks targeting the police at multiple levels, from senior commanders to frontline personnel, as evidence of the institution’s importance to Iran’s security and social order.

Despite these attacks, he said, police personnel had remained steadfast in carrying out their duties, continuing their work even in streets and vehicles when circumstances prevented them from operating from their usual stations and posts.

The Leader described their persistence as a testament to their commitment to protecting the country and maintaining public security in exceptionally difficult conditions.

He also characterized service in the field of security as a form of jihad in the path of God, saying that the work carried out by police personnel enjoys significant public support.

Public trust and institutional strengthening

The message underscored the importance of strengthening public confidence in the police, noting that its personnel, like members of the Army and Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), emerge from the society they serve.

He added that the hardship and lack of recognition experienced by those who protect public security could, in the religious understanding expressed in his message, increase their reward in the sight of God.

Often, the efforts and sacrifices of those who safeguard security are taken for granted by some people, and it’s precisely this being wronged and unrecognized that amplifies their reward in the sight of God. 

The Leader also called for comprehensive improvements in the capabilities of the security forces, emphasizing the need to strengthen human resources, equipment, and technological infrastructure.

In particular, he highlighted the importance of advancing technology and making purposeful use of artificial intelligence in data analysis to improve the police’s operational capabilities and facilitate the execution of their responsibilities.

Appreciation for police personnel

Concluding his message, Ayatollah Khamenei expressed gratitude to all members of the police force, with particular appreciation for its commander, whom he praised for his dedication, courage and tireless efforts.

He voiced hope that, with the prayers of Imam Mahdi, may God hasten his reappearance, Iran’s police would achieve further success in strengthening the country’s security, power and national dignity.

Friday, October 09, 2026

Saudi Arabia’s war economy is catching up with Vision 2030

The kingdom’s oil lifelines are under fire just as its grandest projects meet the limits of the Saudi treasury.

When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) unveiled Vision 2030 on 25 April 2016, he promised to make Saudi Arabia less dependent on oil. The plan called for the private sector’s share of GDP to rise from 40 to 65 percent, non-oil revenue to climb from roughly 163 billion riyals to 1 trillion, and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to grow from around 600 billion riyals to 7 trillion. Vast projects would carry the kingdom into a new economic era.

The announcement came a year after the Saudi-led war on Yemen began, with MbS serving as defense minister. A decade later, that war remains unresolved and the most ambitious targets of Vision 2030 remain out of reach. 

His subsequent policy of easing regional crises, including rapprochement with Iran and talks over Yemen, has come under renewed strain since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February 2026. Saudi territory’s role in the US campaign, alongside the stalled Yemen road map and Riyadh’s continuing pressure on its southern neighbor, has brought the costs of confrontation back into focus. Riyadh had counted on quiet borders and open sea lanes to underwrite its vast building program. It now has neither assurance.

The megaprojects meet their limits

The strain on Vision 2030 predated the regional war. Rising construction and financing costs, uncertain returns, and foreign investment that has fallen short of expectations forced Riyadh to reconsider the pace and scale of its biggest projects. 

Many were conceived on the assumption that state spending would draw in enough private capital to keep construction moving and eventually produce a return. That capital has proved harder to secure at the necessary scale. 

Work on the Mukaab, the giant cube at the center of Riyadh’s New Murabba development, was halted for a reassessment of its financing and feasibility. NEOM has faced a wider review, including scaled-back plans for The Line and delays to other industrial and tourism projects. 

Sindalah island closed shortly after its 2024 opening, with no clear reopening date. A planned $1.5 billion railway in Tabuk was canceled after substantial spending, prompting a compensation dispute. NEOM has reportedly put the cost of terminating contracts over 2026–2030 at about $16 billion as it realigns its spending.

War tightens the fiscal vise

The war then disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising shipping and insurance costs and complicating Saudi oil exports. In revised figures for the second quarter of 2026, the General Authority for Statistics reported that GDP contracted 4.7 percent year on year as oil activity fell 24.8 percent. Non-oil activity grew just 0.9 percent.

Public finances entered the second half with much less room than Riyadh had planned. The 2026 budget projected revenue of 1.147 trillion riyals against expenditure of 1.313 trillion, leaving an expected deficit of 165 billion riyals. The first-half deficit approached 160 billion riyals, nearly the full-year target.

Higher oil prices could not fully compensate for lower export volumes and the growing cost of getting crude to market. The kingdom’s financing needs rose sharply as it borrowed to cover the deficit and refinance maturing debt. 

Those obligations cannot be deferred as easily as a construction timetable. Spending plans and payment schedules also came under pressure, making the question of which projects receive priority more urgent for a government still committed to its 2030 deadline.

The squeeze has reached businesses. During the first eight months of 2026, 489 Saudi companies reportedly entered bankruptcy or related proceedings, 70 of them in August. Plans to sell stakes in state-owned companies, an important source of funds for new investment, have faced a more difficult market.

The mounting bill for air defense

The war has imposed a further burden on the Saudi budget as Riyadh defends airspace, installations, and infrastructure, fires costly interceptors, and replenishes stockpiles. Those costs continue long after an incoming drone or missile has been destroyed.

Saudi figures cited in regional reporting counted 518 drones and 38 missiles intercepted between 28 February and 22 March. A rough calculation, assuming a Patriot interceptor for every drone and two for every ballistic missile, puts the defensive bill at about $2.2 billion against an estimated $72 million for the incoming weapons. 

That calculation is not an audited Saudi expenditure and cannot establish which systems were actually fired. It does, however, indicate the cost imbalance facing a state heavily reliant on imported air defenses. Repairs, maintenance, and replacement missiles add to the expense.

Riyadh has sought new supplies, reportedly approaching Japan about Patriot missiles and asking South Korean manufacturers Hanwha and LIG Nex1 to accelerate air defense deliveries. Washington has approved a possible $1.96 billion sale including up to 10,000 APKWS guidance units. Saudi Arabia has also sought defensive support from France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt as pressure on its stocks has grown.

Saudi military expenditure reached $83.2 billion in 2025, making it the world’s eighth-largest spender, according to SIPRI. Finance Ministry figures put first-quarter 2026 military spending at around $17.2 billion, up 26 percent on the same period a year earlier.

Yemen returns to the Saudi oil equation

Pressure from Hormuz was already testing the kingdom’s export system when its confrontation with Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned armed forces (YAF) intensified. Riyadh now faces threats along the Red Sea route on which it had relied to bypass the bottleneck in the Gulf.

After Sanaa announced a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping in July, its forces advanced along Yemen’s western coast toward strategic positions near Bab al-Mandab. The number of vessels using the strait reportedly fell from around 50 a day before the blockade to about 32, further narrowing the route for Saudi crude.

Kpler data reportedly show Saudi crude passing through Bab al-Mandab at more than 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in early July, then dropping steeply from mid-month and approaching zero in August. Reported inventories rose from roughly 61 million to 75 million bpd, consistent with crude accumulating faster than available routes could carry it away.

Retaliatory attacks on oil infrastructure compounded the shipping squeeze. The Jazan Refinery and Saudi-linked tankers in the Red Sea came under threat, while the kingdom’s East–West Pipeline, the main route from its Eastern Province to the port of Yanbu, was struck by drones in September. 

Saudi officials attributed the pipeline attack to a resistance faction in Iraq; other reporting has linked attacks on the route to Ansarallah. The disruption halted Yanbu loadings, and Aramco began restarting the line around 22 September after roughly 11 days of interruption.

The costly detour north

With the southern passage constrained, Riyadh also used a northern route through Egypt: crude could travel from Yanbu to Ain Sokhna, cross the SUMED Pipeline, and be loaded again at Sidi Kerir. That kept a path to European buyers open but required additional handling and capacity that the direct passage through Bab al-Mandab did not. 

It offered little relief for cargoes bound for Asia, which faced the much longer voyage around the Cape of Good Hope. Each detour cut into the benefit of higher prices by raising the cost of delivery.

Saudi Arabia tried to limit the damage by redirecting crude toward Europe, adjusting official selling prices, and using ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar, Oman. None of these measures could fully replace the volumes moved along its established routes.

The disruption was visible in August oil flows. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated Saudi crude supply at roughly six million bpd, down 2.3 million from July, while other estimates put output closer to 6.2 million. 

Crude exports fell to around 3.1–3.2 million bpd, their lowest level in more than a decade. These are estimates from different measures of production, supply, and loadings, rather than a single official series.

Higher freight and insurance costs have also weighed on the non-oil economy. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Saudi growth of 1.7 percent for 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, warning that prolonged shipping disruption would further hurt trade and confidence.

The Yemen front has brought the war home to Saudi Arabia’s export corridors and public finances just as Vision 2030’s largest projects are being delayed or scaled back. Riyadh can borrow, reroute cargoes, and reorder its spending, but each measure carries a cost. 

The longer the fighting lasts, the harder it becomes to fund the economic transformation MbS promised while defending the routes on which it still depends.