Sunday, June 07, 2026

Desperate Trump “willing” to meet Supreme Leader after Iran’s nuclear threat!

Crescent International

Donald Trump desperate for a deal with Iran before American voters decimate the Republican Party during mid-term Congressional elections in November (Image: ChatGPT)
From threatening to wipe out Iran’s civilization to expressing the desire to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatullah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei if a deal is struck, Donald Trump’s changing positions have astonished even the most seasoned observers.

What led him to arrive at this point and how seriously it can be taken?

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the idea outright, saying expectations should be grounded in reality.

Iran’s Supreme Leader recently hinted that should the US or Israel relaunch an attack, Tehran would consider making a nuclear bomb.

The threat itself was like a nuclear explosion.

Further, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to fire hundreds of missiles at northern occupied Palestine (aka northern Israel) if Israel bombed Beirut.

This led to Trump’s expletive-laden phone call with the indicted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu demanding Israel not attack Beirut.

Iran is not satisfied with merely no bombing of Beirut.

It demands the withdrawal of all Israeli occupation forces from South Lebanon.

The Islamic resistance movement Hizbullah has inflicted significant damage on the zionist war criminals, especially in the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah (Beaufort Castle).

Located in the eastern sector near the Litani River, Lebanese terrain has transformed into a killing field for Israeli soldiers and battalion commanders.

If Islamic Iran is very cautious in dealing with Trump, it has good reason.

The orange orangutan in the White House is a compulsive liar and fraud.

He can renege on a deal once he feels he has achieved his objectives.

After all, he tore up the JCPOA in May 2018, the nuclear deal that was struck after years of discussions in July 2015.

Tehran demands practical steps, not verbal assurances, about the US lifting of sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, and release of some of its illegally frozen assets upfront.

On May 25, an Iranian delegation visited Doha, Qatar to work out the modalities.

The delegation comprised Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati.

The latter’s inclusion in the delegation was significant.

Qatar holds about $24 billion in Iran’s frozen assets.

Tehran demands the release of 50% of those assets upfront before taking any steps.

There is also the Iranian demand for reparations for damage caused as a result of the US-zionist illegal war that was and is backed by the Arabian regimes as well.

Amounts of $300 billion to $1 trillion have been mentioned.

The US wants to call it an “International Investment Fund”.

Again, the Arabian regimes will contribute, while the US would “facilitate” it.

Given Iran’s refusal to hold direct talks with the Americans, indirect talks through Pakistani and Qatari mediators are being held.

While they have hit a snag because of renewed US attacks on Iran around the Strait of Hormuz and zionist attacks on Lebanon, the mediators are trying to keep them alive.

Some contours of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) being discussed have emerged.

These centre around an end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon and Palestine (emphasis added).

Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping excluding Israeli ships but it will charge an environmental fee against any potential pollution due to oil spill.

It avoids the use of the term "charges” for transiting the narrow strait.

Having failed in every one of his war objectives: overthrow of the Islamic government, mass uprising by the people and degrading Iran’s military power to force them to surrender, Trump is desperate for a deal.

Several factors are driving this change.

Most Americans oppose the US war on Iran (61 percent) because it has resulted in higher gas and food prices.

They also oppose the endless handouts to the parasital zionist state as it continues its geocidal policies in Gaza and Lebanon while millions of Americans languish in poverty.

This opposition has spread to Trump’s MAGA base as well as the Republican party.

They are calling for an end to this futile and illegal war that has no defined goals.

This was reflected in a resolution calling for the withdrawal of US troops from Iran passed narrowly in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

Four members of the Republican party backed the resolution presented by the Democrats.

The approaching US mid-term elections in November have had a major impact on the thinking of US lawmakers.

While Trump is not on the ballot, both Republican and Democratic lawmakers fear the wrath of the voters.

It is widely believed that the Republicans will lose control of both houses of Congress that could potentially lead to impeachment proceedings against Trump.

That prospect terrifies the orange orangutan in the White House but he has no workable game plan to extricate himself from this quagmire.

The era of US hegemony in West Asia is over.

Donald TrumpIran's Supreme Leader Ayatullah Seyyed Mojtaba KhameneiIslamic Republic of IranBenjamin NetanyahuSouth LebanonHizbullahGaza being bombed

Why Donald Trump has been unable to end the Gulf War for four months

The US and Israeli aggression against Iran, which began on February 28, has undermined confidence in the American administration, especially given that Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to renounce new wars of aggression.

Mohammed Amer

It has shaken international affairs, led to a serious energy crisis, seriously complicated the economic life of many countries in the Global South, primarily in Asia, and caused serious problems for all countries in the region.

In the American press and in media outlets in the Global South, most commentary suggests that the American Gulf War was a clear failure, “making the region more dangerous and diplomacy more detached from reality.”

In the United States itself, it has caused significant divisions, resulting in political forces within American society. Washington’s actions were condemned not only by the Democratic Party, which opposes the president, but also by some Trump supporters in the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement.

The US military campaign against Iran is often attributed to Israeli pressure, the general logic of containing Tehran, and Donald Trump’s desire to gain control of oil sources in the Middle East.

The House Armed Services Committee proposed including a section entitled “US-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative” in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027

Israel is attempting to undermine the US-Iran agreement

When the US president announced his intention to conclude a deal with Iran and cease military action, Israeli authorities voiced their opposition, strongly encouraging the US to continue the war to overthrow the current Iranian regime. Immediately, supporters of the US Jewish lobby became active, seeking to derail the emerging peace agreement between Washington and Tehran. Their power cannot be underestimated, although, according to the Jerusalem Post on May 29, 2026, 60% of American adults have an unfavorable view of Israel. Many observers believe that Trump’s highly contradictory statements regarding a ceasefire with Iran are largely due to pressure from the pro-Israel lobby, which has repeatedly warned the president against making concessions to Iran in any deal to end the war. It is no coincidence that on May 25 of this year, Trump called on several countries, predominantly Muslim, to join the Abraham Accords—a set of agreements aimed at normalizing relations with Israel. On his “Truth Social” network, Trump stated that Saudi Arabia and Qatar should sign such an agreement first. He also called on Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan to join, despite the fact that Turkey has recognized Israel since 1949, and Egypt and Jordan have peace treaties with Israel signed in 1979 and 1994, respectively. He even mentioned the possibility of Iran joining the Abraham Accords.

Deepening US-Israel Military Cooperation: A New Initiative and Its Implications

The pro-Israel lobby remains influential in the US Congress. Therefore, the House Armed Services Committee proposed including a section entitled “US-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative” in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027.

This legislation aims to significantly strengthen ties between the two countries’ militaries by expanding their collaboration in research, production, and weapons development. If adopted, this provision could mark a turning point in one of the world’s closest military alliances. For Israel, the partnership, which has so far relied heavily on US military assistance, could transform into deeper integration of defense industries. This would essentially grant Israel unprecedented access to US technology and significant influence over US defense priorities.

It is noteworthy that the White House, despite criticism, continues its attempts to “appease” Israel. This is evident, in particular, in the fact that Israel has been allowed to bomb southern Lebanon for several weeks now, ignoring the ceasefire agreement.

The Iranian Campaign as an Instrument of US Domestic Policy

Some political scientists believe that the Iranian campaign has become a tool for the White House to weaken the traditional separation of powers and secure its exclusive right to domestic decision-making. In this context, Donald Trump’s rhetoric, which has repeatedly portrayed Iran as a state that has humiliated the United States for 47 years, takes on particular significance. Historical analogies serve as a compelling rationale for decision-making.

The United States also needs Iran to reaffirm its imperial status. The symbolic backdrop created by examples such as Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada, Gaza, and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America is complemented by the president’s opportunity to demonstrate not just an image but actual results through a war with Iran. This logic could lead to Trump demanding that, after a victory (more imaginary than real), America accept a new norm: the president governs independently, determines the price of victory, can revise the War Powers Act, and presents the economic costs to the public as the price of military operations.

Prospects for an Agreement with Iran

Some observers believe that Washington will likely agree to a ceasefire agreement with Iran, as it lacks the capacity or resources to continue active military operations. The president will try to present this as a personal victory. However, it is possible that the US could resume military operations after some time, especially if an agreement with Iran on joint control of the Strait of Hormuz and, consequently, the sharing of shipping revenues fails.

Mohammed Amer, Syrian publicist, expert on current issues of global and regional politics

Iraq’s Resistance between Maintaining Arms and Handing Them Over: Will the US Project Pan Out?"

Alwaght- While in Lebanon Hezbollah has maintained its weapons of resistance against all of the Israeli and American pressures for disarming, in another part of Axis of Resistance something different is happening and the firm forte of the Iraqi resistance weapons is being penetrated not by foreign attacks by the Trojan Horse of the internal competitions.

After a recent statement by Muqtada al-Sadr about dissolution of the Saraya Al-Salam and handover of its weapons to the government and calling on other resistance groups operating under Public Mobilization Forces (PMF) to follow on their footsteps, in recent days conflicting reactions have been made by these groups.

Three groups, Saraya al-Salam, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kata'ib Imam have officially agreed to hand over their weapons and integrate into state institutions. But six factions linked to the PMF, including Kata'ib Hezbollah Iraq, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat al-Nujaba, Saraya Awliya al-Dam, Ashab al-Kahf, and Kata'ib Karbala, have flatly refused to disarm.

This sharp divide has some political observers and analysts calling it the first sign of a new internal rift within Iraq’s Shiite political sphere, especially among groups that define themselves through the lens of resistance ideology.

Of course, competition for a stronger foothold in the cabinet and parliament is nothing new. But it should be kept in mind that the deep ideological and doctrinal ties binding all these factions to the core tenets of armed resistance remain rock solid. Handing over weapons, for those who do, does not necessarily mean abandoning those goals, or signing on to US’s project for Iraq.

Argument of the resistance leaders

Currently, all of the resistance factions have accepted the principle of restriction of arms to the government, but given the security conditions of Iraq and the regional developments having happened over the past few months, they believe that such a move in the current conditions does not serve the country's security interests and stability.

Resistance leaders have made their reasons for refusing to hand over weapons to the government crystal clear. Abu Mujahid Assaf, security chief of Kata'ib Hezbollah, stated flatly that as long as foreign occupation persists in Iraq's land and skies, his group will not disarm. Assaf vowed that the factions will remain united and keep fighting until the country is fully liberated.

Sheikh Kazem al-Fartousi, spokesman for Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, was just as blunt, saying that resistance groups will never give up their weapons. Selling off military gains for government posts, he charged, amounts to national treason. His remarks come as the US has made clear it will veto any role for resistance factions in Iraq's political arrangements.

Meanwhile, Nazim al-Saedi, head of al-Nujaba's executive council, insisted that any discussion on weapons must be comprehensive, fair, and based on a single standard. Recalling that Iraq's Shiites have always been targets of hostile schemes, he warned: "Today they are targeting the resistance groups. Tomorrow it will be the Popular Mobilization Forces. Then they will go after the army itself, until nothing is left to defend Iraq."

PMF, impenetrable in security and military structure

The stances of the resistance leaders of Iraq show that all of them share the opposition to the American-Israeli project to undermine the PMF.

They are united in their voice that the PMF is an official and legal institution in the Iraqi armed forces operating under the command of prime minister as the commander-in-chief and has become part of the country's defense structure. This military institution has played a big role in the Iraqi security, turning into one of the firm pillars of the Iraqi security by launching tens of operations against terrorism factions, including those of ISIS. The PMF has also had effective role in protecting security of various regions and providing services to the Arbaeen pilligrims.

Countering the American occupation

For all resistance factions, staying committed until the complete end of US military occupation in Iraq is another non-negotible principle. On that front, Nazim al-Saedi traced their refusal to disarm directly back to continued US influence. He stressed that as long as Iraq does not exercise full sovereignty over its own decisions and territory, the resistance’s weapons will remain a deterrent and a guarantee of national security.

The core belief driving the factions is clear: until the US military presence ends entirely, resistance is a legitimate right, and a national and religious duty. So any plan to monopolize weapons, they argue, cannot be allowed to clear the way for eliminating the resistance and bringing the US back to run Iraq under a NATO cover. That concern comes as a senior NATO commander recently raised the possibility of expanding the Western alliance’s mission inside Iraq. Yet the Iraqi government spokesman said Saturday that the foreign coalition’s mission will end in September, and all foreign troops must withdraw.

Iraqi resistance an extension to regional resistance

Using economic pressure including threats to cut off Iraq's access to its oil revenues and imposing financial and banking sanctions, the US maintains constant pressures on the Iraqi government to isolate the resistance factions and finally separate Iraq from its main cradle the Axis of Resistance and Iran for Washington to advance its West Asian plots with wider open hands.

However, resistance factions of Iraq still express commitment to their responsibilities. They firmly cling to their involvement in regional developments, saying that they do not forsake their principles and beliefs for short-term political reservations or benefits including eased foreign pressures or temporary privileges from the US.

In general, the case of disarming the resistance groups is not a simple issue, but directly related to the balance of power in Iraq, the degree of independence of decision-making, and the future of the security structure of the country. As regional tensions and active intervention of foreign actors continue, observers suggest that any decision on the issue should be made within the framework of inclusive dialogue among all political currents and with regard of field realities.

So, as long as American forces are present in Iraq and the Israeli regime is pursuing its expansionist plans in the region, the main aim of the restriction of the arms, namely partition of Iraq and isolation of its resistance factions, will not produce Washington's favorable outcome. 

Beirut of Two Frames: How Can We See the Real Lebanon?

Alwaght- These days, Lebanon more than any other time in recent years is narrated in two different and sometimes contrasting ways. These two narratives have challenged a cohesive understanding of reality of this country, as if it is two various countries.

While Lebanon is grappling with foreign aggression and full-scale war, gaps are deepening between government of Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah and its allies over a set of important issues like defense and negotiations, Hezbollah’s weapons, and relationship with Iran as an ally of Hezbollah and backer of Lebanon in the face of the Israeli hostility. These disputes have long since left the closed-door negotiating tables of politicians and their backroom meetings. Now, no one hesitates to bring them up from official podiums. This situation has raised a pressing question: through which lens, then, can one see the real Lebanon emerging from this duality of narratives?

Dispute between Aoun and Hezbollah over war

No united voice and narrative is emerging from Lebanon about the most basic priority of the country against ground advances of the Israeli regime in large tracts of land and endangering the very territorial integrity of the country.

Despite the 45-day extension of the so-called truce in mid-May according to the UN Security Council's resolution 1701, Israel continues its ground operations inside Lebanon. The occupation army has even gone beyond its stated buffer zone, re-occupying about 800 square kilometers of the Lebanese territory.

Meanwhile, in the middle of ongoing ceasefire talks in Washington between the Lebanese government and Tel Aviv, the Israeli cabinet has doubled down by approving even more aggressive plans. More destructive still is the pattern of behavior by Israeli forces on the battlefield. Reports have documented the deliberate killing of civilians, widespread looting, and the systematic destruction of civilian homes by Israeli army soldiers. By demolishing infrastructure and issuing evacuation orders for large parts of southern areas, Israel has created a massive wave of internal displacement.

But while there are reports that even the US has asked Israel to halt its attacks to advance the negotiations, the stance of President Aoun's government and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has been politically catastrophic.

In his official statements, Aoun voices opposition to foreign aggression and occupation of Lebanon’s lands not as a national priority but within the framework to disarm Hezbollah. He laid out this exact argument to Security Council members back in December 2025, warning that "continued Israeli violations only strengthen Hezbollah's narrative that the resistance's weapons are what protect Lebanon's security and territorial integrity, while simultaneously eroding the Lebanese state's authority.

Since the November 2024 ceasefire, the Aoun-Salam government has essentially been acting as the mouthpiece for the US and Israeli narrative on ceasefire violations, continued occupation, and fresh aggression against Lebanese soil. Even though after the ceasefire, the Israeli army maintained its military presence in five points inside Lebanon in direct violation of the agreements, the Lebanese government issued an end-of-2025 deadline for the army to disarm Hezbollah.

The plan's pro-Israeli nature was so blatant that even Lebanese Army Commander General Rudolf Haykal warned during the Security Council's visit in December 2025 that the Lebanese army would not "act as Israel's representative" by forcing its way into private homes in southern Lebanon.

After that, even as Israel launched attacks and prepared for a ground incursion into Lebanon, the government officially banned Hezbollah's military activities on March 2, effectively rubber-stamping Israel's justification for its aggression.

All this while experts believe Netanyahu's stated goal, which is complete dismantlement of Hezbollah's weapons and permanently removing the threat against Israel's northern regions, reveals the Israeli cabinet's real plan for an open-ended occupation of Lebanese territory. The doctrine behind the Israeli army's bombing and destruction campaign pursues one strategic outcome: mountains of rubble designed to ensure displaced populations never return and to destroy communal life in southern Lebanon for good, all in the name of securing Israel's northern areas.

Now the question is that what is keeping the Lebanese government from shouldering its responsibilities? Especially while it ignores its duty of saving territorial integrity, it focuses all of its efforts on countering Hezbollah as the only force defending the country, lingering the conflict and increasing the country’s costs.

There is no justification accepted by the public opinion since Hezbollah has shown that even with bare hands it can defend Lebanon, as these days it is operating low-cost, basic-tech, fiber-optic drones drones, inflicting heavy damages on the Israeli occupation forces. On the opposite side, the government has shown it no only does not do its national duty, but also it is seeking to put the skids under Hezbollah's resistance agenda. An example of this hostile approach is detention of Hezbollah fighters transferring arms to the fronts and trying them for defending the country. 

But the resistance discourse represents the other side of Lebanon’s current reality. In his latest speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem once again laid out the movement’s unwavering stance against aggression, making it clear that Hezbollah is committed only to a comprehensive ceasefire and the full withdrawal of the Israeli army from Lebanon. 

"We will not accept any separation between the south and other parts of Lebanon, and we grant the enemy no ‘license to kill, ” he said. 

He added: “As long as our villages remain unsafe and subject to bombardment, Israeli settlements will also remain unsafe. And they will witness both our wrath and our resilience.”

Direct talks: Humiliating surrender or the remedy?

Given these developments, there are questions about if the direct negotiations with the Israeli regime are serving national interests.

As said earlier, this government’s top priority is disarming Hezbollah, not defending the country’s territorial integrity against Israeli incursions. So it views the enemy’s aggression not as a threat to Lebanon’s survival and security, but as an opportunity to execute that plan. The Aoun-Salam government’s token condemnation of the Israeli regime’s attacks stems from a fear that any real outcry would actually justify resistance weapons—by proving once again that the army is incapable of defending Lebanese soil. That is why it is willing to come to the negotiating table from a position of weakness and accept a ceasefire that cements the occupier’s hold on Lebanese land while stripping the country’s defenders of their right to resist.

On the opposite side, Hezbollah believes that the true path to ending the war and restoring stability is not negotiation and accepting Tel Aviv’s terms but ensuring the Israeli withdrawal from all occupied Lebanese territories. 

In this connection, Sheikh Qassem said that the recent Washington plan is an outcome of the humiliating talks that are seeking to bring Lebanon to its knees in the face of the so-called "Greater Israel" project. He continued that the main aim of the enemy behind this deal is disarming the resistance forces, which means destroying Lebanon’s power and posing an existential threat to its people. 

Who is Lebanon’s friend? 

Another key issue lies in the dual narrative emerging from Lebanon and crossing its borders: the role of Iran as the main ally of Hezbolla in its fight against Israeli aggression.

Tehran has every incentive to prevent Lebanon from being swallowed by Israel as part of the latter’s strategic goal of balkanizing the region under a so-called “New Middle East.” No powerful country, after all, confines itself strictly to its territorial borders when it comes to protecting its security interests. In the fierce ongoing battle to redraw the region’s new security order, Iran simply cannot afford to be a bystander to Lebanon’s fate.

The Islamic Republic has made the cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon a key condition for any preliminary agreement with Washington. Yet the government of President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam labels Iran as an obstacle to peace and stability in Lebanon.

On the other side, Sheikh Qassem, rejecting these hostile stances from Lebanon’s Western-leaning government, said: “We thank Iran for its support in reclaiming our land and our rights against joint American-Israeli aggression.” He made it clear: “Iran is working to establish a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon alongside halting the aggression against itself.”

What is certain is that a growing number of Lebanese, watching their towns and villages emptied by destruction and looting, do not see their own government as their guarantor. Instead, they see the force that is fighting, and the country backing that fight, as their friend and ally.

Mosaic society: Is Aoun-Salam government representing the Lebanon’s majority?

Now, we should return to the first question: In this duality of narrative, how we should see the real Lebanon? Does the ruling faction hold the parliamentary majority to call it representative of the majority of people of Lebanon? Do the Aoun-Salam positions represent those of all Lebanese officials?

Lebanon’s government structure stems from the country’s mosaic-like society, where posts are allocated by quota to ensure all minorities have a share in power. This arrangement was embedded in the constitution after a 15-year civil war as a mechanism for maintaining stability. As a result, Lebanese governments have always been, by necessity, coalitions of the country’s main political currents.

Yet here’s the paradox: in parliamentary systems, severe crises such as war and foreign aggression usually lead to the formation of broad, maximalist unity cabinets. But in Lebanon, the Israeli regime’s 66-day war in 2024 and the recent conflict have pushed political strife in the opposite direction. One faction, exploiting the country’s exceptional circumstances, is now trying to seize full control of power and eliminate a deep-rooted, major political current.

Actually, the positions voiced by the president, prime minister, and foreign minister represent only narrow segments of society and specific political factions. For example, among Christians, the Free Patriotic Movement, and among Shiites, the Amal Movement, are both deeply rooted forces and allies of Hezbollah. And neither aligns with the president or prime minister’s stances.

So the real Lebanon cannot be confined to the official statements of its president, prime minister, or foreign minister. The current government, which was formed under US pressure and in the shadow of ceasefire agreements, may wear the costume of official power, but it only echoes the voices of limited slices of Lebanon’s mosaic society.

Any observer seeking a broad picture of today's Lebanon should look through the lens of this fragmented, plural, and sometimes paradoxical reality of Lebanon, one in which Hezbollah is still on the front line and the government does nothing but facilitating the enemy’s project. Actually, real Lebanon should be sought in the bombed streets of the south, not in the presidential palace of Beirut. 

How the US-Israel-Iran War Is Redrawing World Politics

The Iran war has reshaped global geopolitics by weakening U.S. credibility and the liberal world order, intensifying regional instability in the Middle East, disrupting energy markets and economies, and accelerating the shift of global power toward emerging alliances led by Russia and China.

Abbas Hashemite

Global Disruption and the Shifting World Order

The US-Israeli attack on Iran emerged as one of the global issues that has completely altered the global dynamics and world order. The implications of this war have been felt around the world. From the energy crisis to unemployment and inflation, this war has affected the world in numerous ways. The US-Israel-Iran war also affected the aggressors in various ways, as well as the broader Middle Eastern region. One of the major impacts of this war is that it significantly altered the global views of US credibility both as an ally and as a negotiator. Moreover, it has pushed the US competitors and rivals closer than ever.

Regional Security Breakdown and the Gulf Response

This war has created a global perception that nuclear capabilities remain the sole guarantee of security against any foreign military or political intervention

Among all of the implications of this war, the most significant one is the Iranian retaliatory attacks on the Gulf nations housing US military bases, especially the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, which also hit the energy and civilian infrastructures in some cases. This Iranian strategy shattered the perception of the US military’s strong capabilities. It also undermined the efficacy of the US security umbrella, coercing these nations to explore alternate options, including Russia, China, Pakistan, and India, to enhance their defenses and ensure their sovereignty. In this quest, some of these nations, like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have enhanced collaboration with Israel. The latter deployed the Iron Dome air defense system and sent several troops to operate it in the UAE. Israel thwarted numerous Iranian drones and missiles through its Iron Dome in the UAE. This development weakened US credibility in the region while strengthening Israel’s regional influence.

Energy Security, Economic Shock, and Gulf Vulnerabilities

The Iranian attacks on these nations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) also forced a recalibration among these countries on energy production, storage alternatives, and transportation methods to protect these resources from further regional conflicts. This war also deepened the historic Arab-Iranian divide among the Muslim community, which will further strengthen the Wahabi-Shia (often misinterpreted as Sunni-Shia) competition in the Middle Eastern states like Bahrain, Pakistan, and Iraq. This rivalry between the two sects and Iran and the Saudi-Gulf will continue to exacerbate, even if the US-Israel-Iran war issue is resolved through negotiations.

Another major implication of this war is that it busted the Dubai dream. Before this war, the UAE was seen as a safe haven for tourism, trade, investment, and entertainment – attracting the global elite and businessmen. The UAE was considered a refugee camp for tax evaders and corrupt politicians. However, the recent Iranian attacks on the UAE severely damaged the global image of the city-state. It would take years to restore the investment environment and global perception of the UAE. This also has negative implications for South Asia’s marginal economies, as the South Asian labor in the UAE has been severely affected by this war.

The Iranian attacks on the UAE and Gulf countries have significantly damaged the energy production and economies of these countries. Qatar produces over 20 percent of global LNG. Its economy is highly reliant on oil and LNG exports. Around 60 percent of Doha’s revenue was generated through petroleum exports. These energy exports made the country the richest in the world per capita, with around $600 billion in its sovereign wealth funds. However, the Iranian attacks on Qatar’s energy facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have damaged its economy and energy exports. The Arab countries could now think of creating storage for their gas and crude oil outside the conflict zone. This war would also force many other countries to build greater energy storage facilities to cope with uncertainties.

Decline of the US-Led Order and the Rise of New Alliances

The United States, through its attack on Iran and trade tariffs on its rivals, has further pushed its adversaries closer. Through his interventionist and unilateralist policies, US President Donald Trump has further solidified the China-Russia alliance, as evidenced by the recent Xi-Putin summit. These policies are increasingly isolating the United States and accelerating its decline as a global hegemon, creating a power vacuum on the global stage that Russia and China are rapidly filling through their inclusive policies. This war has also increased strategic, military, technological, and economic cooperation between Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.

The US and Israeli attack on Iran, amidst ongoing negotiations, has also undermined the global perception of international rules and norms. Moreover, this attack showcases the inefficacy and helplessness of the liberal international institutions. It has strengthened the global perception that the US-led world order is designed to serve Western interests. Through this attack, the United States has weakened the US-led unilateral world order and pushed the Global South towards the Eastern bloc, led by Russia and China. Moreover, this war has created a global perception that nuclear capabilities remain the sole guarantee of security against any foreign military or political intervention.

Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist

Trump’s Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Search for a Middle East Exit Strategy

The US President Donald Trump hints at plans to expand the Abraham Accords as an exit strategy from the Iran war, along with announcing the end of the US naval blockade of Iran. This move could shift regional security to Israel, making the US less responsible.

Abbas Hashemite

A Diplomatic Exit Strategy Disguised as Regional Realignment

President Trump recently indicated that he was now hustling for an exit that Washington and Tel Aviv had imposed on Tehran, by stating that he had asked regional powers, including Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, to join the Abraham Accords during the closing moments of the war. He maintained that he wants to make the truce to end the Iran war more historic through this move, but analysts around the world see this with suspicion. It seems that the United States seeks a face-saving through this move for an exit from the war on Iran’s terms. Trump’s recent announcement to lift the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has further strengthened these speculations.

This move will also increase Israel’s role in regional security while leaving Washington no longer responsible for the security of Middle Eastern oil supplies. However, the United States will also ensure a limited share in the regional security. The move will also mark the transformation of the Abraham Accords from merely a framework centered on recognition of Israel into a broader regional security architecture, capable of substituting for US security guarantees in the Middle East while remaining backed by Washington.

Strategic Contradictions and the Logic of Separation

The recent Iranian attacks on the Gulf States have shown the reality of the US guarantees

However, there are numerous underlying flaws with this proposal, which seem less the product of strategic planning than of President Trump’s recognition that an emerging deal with Iran cannot plausibly be presented as a victory. The central logic will be to disentangle the nuclear issue from negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian nuclear programme is merely a Zionist agenda, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a universal demand, as it led to global oil, energy, aluminum, and urea supply disruption. Thus, separating these two issues for further negotiations implies leaving the Zionist lobby dissatisfied. This raises a critical question: Is President Trump scrabbling to find a way to show Israeli and American Zionists that he has got something for them out of this self-imposed war on Iran?

President Trump’s recent announcement to lift the US blockade of Iran signals a possible deal in the coming days. Moreover, Iran’s upper hand in the conflict and its strong retaliation and uncompromising stance made this war an invincible conflict for the United States. The Trump administration’s whole idea of regime change was dependent on domestic protests and revolution in Iran. However, the US-Israel attacks on Iran reunited the divided populace of the country. For Iranians, this war was more about saving their civilization. Trump’s threat to destroy a whole civilization further cemented the Iranian unity. Another major reason behind this blowback was the US atrocities in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and other regional countries after regime change operations in these states.

Blowback, Geopolitical Costs, and Regional Resistance

This Iranian unity and strong Iranian retaliation to the US-Israeli attacks led to a shameful US defeat in this war. President Trump seemed entangled in this war because he had no plan B in case of failure of his regime change operation. The Trump administration seemed frustrated to get a truce signed between the two sides. However, the Iranian government, despite heavy losses to its economy and key leadership, seemed calm and composed. Moreover, the Iran war also ruptured the United States’ international image and standing, creating a power vacuum that Russia and China eagerly filled. Due to this war, the Russian and Chinese soft power further increased around the globe. All these developments put the US in an uncomfortable position.

It seems that the upcoming deal will be more favorable to Iran, which would obviously dissatisfy the Zionist lobby internationally. The Zionist lobby has an unprecedented influence on the US establishment. It also plays a critical role in securing electoral victories for US politicians. A favorable deal to Iran and separating the nuclear issue from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will have a daunting impact on Trump’s political future. Therefore, President Trump seeks to offer Israel an extended regional security architecture in the Middle East.

Complications for Washington’s Post-War Middle East Vision

However, the key problem with this face-saving maneuver is that it has put several US allies in a difficult position. Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey have already recognized Israel; none of these countries appears willing to get involved in any sort of military or intelligence-sharing cooperation with the Zionist regime of Israel, as previous signatories of the Abraham Accords are. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan also stand firm in their stance that they will not recognize Israel without a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood.

After the recent Gaza genocide and the US-Israeli attack on Iran due to its nuclear programme, the situation has become more complicated for the Muslim nations. No Muslim state is in a position to sign the Abraham Accords under the current circumstances. Moreover, the recent Iranian attacks on the Gulf States have shown the reality of the US guarantees. Therefore, Trump’s attempt to gain face-saving and offer Israel an expanded security role and legitimacy for its war crimes may not succeed under current global circumstances.

Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist

The Gulf Alliance with Washington is a one-sided pact

Just like warmongering Europe, the Gulf petro-monarchies are paying the price for delegating their defense and security to Washington, their enemy disguised as a savior.

Mohamed Lamine KABA

In reality, if the Gulf States do not break structurally with the current logic, the next regional crisis will find them in the same position – alone, exposed, watching American destroyers protect Tel Aviv while their vital interests burn.

A shield that protects the other

There are truths that history always manages to wrest from diplomacy. This is one of them: the military alliance between the United States and the Gulf petro-monarchies was never an alliance. It was an arrangement. A transaction disguised as a strategic partnership. A predatory lease signed by sovereigns eager to believe themselves protected.

One wonders how states sitting on the largest hydrocarbon reserves on the planet, managers of sovereign wealth funds among the most powerful in the world, abdicated their security sovereignty into the hands of a power whose fundamental interests structurally diverged from their own?

In April 2024, when Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel after the latter had launched drones at its consulate in Damascus, Syria – an operation dubbed “True Promise”, followed by the 12-day war of June 2025, then the open confrontation on February 28, 2026 – the American response was swift, total, and without hesitation. Patriot missile systems, destroyers of the Fifth Fleet, and F-35 and F-15 fighter jets were mobilized within hours. But not for Baghdad. Not for Riyadh. Not for Abu Dhabi. For Tel Aviv. This image speaks for itself. It says everything that forty years of diplomatic communiqués had carefully concealed. Washington made its choice. The response has never wavered since 1973.

One hundred billion for nothing

The figures are staggering – and nauseating. Since 1990, the Gulf petro-monarchies have absorbed more than $500 billion worth of American arms. Saudi Arabia alone signed a mega-deal with the Trump administration in May 2017, worth $110 billion – the largest arms sale in American history, which was later increased to $350 billion over ten years. The United Arab Emirates followed suit with orders for F-35s, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and THAAD systems for tens of billions more. Qatar hosts Al- Udeid, the largest American air base in the Middle East – more than 10,000 troops, hundreds of aircraft, and the headquarters of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Bahrain has hosted the Fifth Fleet since 1995. Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia: all territories generously made available to American power.

In May 2025, the Riyadh summit produced staggering trade and investment agreements approaching $2 trillion. Gulf sovereign wealth funds injected nearly $70 billion into US assets that same year. Bilateral trade between the two shores exceeded $120 billion in 2024. The recycling of petrodollars into Treasury bonds has been ongoing since the Kissinger-Fahd agreements of 1974, artificially maintaining Washington’s borrowing rates low, financing its colossal debt, and consolidating the dollar’s global hegemony.

The Gulf paid. Paid again. And paid again. In return? A promise of security. Conditional. Subordinate. Negotiable. From the moment Israeli interests diverged from Arab interests, Washington didn’t hesitate for a millisecond. It chose Tel Aviv. It has always chosen it. It will always choose it.

Israel: the sole priority

In American strategic doctrine, Israel is not just another ally. It is an unsinkable aircraft carrier – an advanced military platform, a regional command post, a permanent operational extension of American power on the doorstep of Eurasia. This reality has been set in stone since October 1973, when Nixon ordered Operation Nickel Grass to save Israel from imminent military defeat at the hands of Egypt and Syria – at the very moment when Arab countries imposed their oil embargo, devastating Western economies.

In January 1991, during the Gulf War, Iraqi Scud missiles rained down on Tel Aviv. The United States immediately deployed Patriot missile batteries in Israel – simultaneously begging the Israelis not to retaliate in order to preserve the Arab coalition. Israel’s security took precedence over everything, even the cohesion of an alliance meant to liberate Kuwait. In March 2003, the invasion of Iraq – demanded by neoconservatives close to Likud, and theorized as early as 1996 in the Clean Break document written for Netanyahu – destroyed the regional balance, delivering Baghdad into the hands of Iranian influence and igniting a Middle East inhabited, subjected to, and financed by the Gulf states.

The American objective, never publicly stated but obsessively pursued from Brzezinski to the Biden doctrine, is crystal clear to anyone willing to read between the lines: to control the Eurasian backbone, to keep Russia under pressure from its southern flank, to contain Iran as a strategic linchpin, to monitor the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, which carry 40% of global maritime trade, and to strangle China from its western flank. American bases in the Gulf are not there to protect the Saudis. They are there to project American power eastward and northward. To encircle. To contain. To dominate.

For forty years, the Gulf monarchies have been generous guests of a foreign military apparatus that uses them as much as it pretends to defend them.

The realization, shattering and belated

It took salvos of missiles, an open war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in 2025-2026, direct American strikes against Iranian military installations, first during the 12-day lightning war in June 2025, and then since February 28, 2026, and the straining of the straits for some Gulf capitals to finally formulate the unthinkable: what if we had chosen the wrong protector from the beginning?

This question was posed directly by Dr. Bishara Bahbah – former mediator between the Trump administration and Hamas – in an interview with Al- Ghad TV in April 2026. His conclusion was scathing: there is no justification for the Gulf states to continue investing in an American military presence incapable of deterring Iran, yet perfectly operational in protecting Israel. Hussein Chokra, a research associate at the American University of Beirut, rigorously theorized this on Al Jazeera on May 3, 2026: the United States will systematically sacrifice Arab interests whenever they clash with those of Tel Aviv. These voices are not marginal. They are symptoms of a brutal intellectual awakening among Arab elites.

The mistakes are structural and accumulated over decades. In August 1990, Riyadh begged Washington to intervene against Saddam Hussein, opening its doors to an American military presence that would never leave. In 2003, the Gulf monarchies tacitly supported – or allowed – the invasion of Iraq, which fractured the regional order and propelled Iran to the status of hegemonic power in the Shiite crescent. In 2011, they supported interventions that ravaged Libya, Syria, and Yemen – conquests of chaos that continue to this day. At each turn, American dependence deepened. With each crisis, Arab sovereignty fractured further.

Instability, a deliberate product

The American military presence in the Gulf has not produced stability. It has produced exactly the opposite: four major wars since 1990, a nuclear-armed Iran despite thirty years of sanctions, a Yemen in ruins after ten years of conflict, a devastated Iraq, a fragmented Syria, and an economically collapsed Lebanon since 2019. If the record of an alliance is measured by the concrete results for its most vulnerable members, this one is damning.

But instability is not a failure of American policy. It is its calculated dividend. A stable, unified Middle East, sovereign over its energy resources and maritime routes, would be an emancipated Middle East – and therefore ungovernable from Washington. The constant turbulence justifies the presence of bases and fuels arms sales – more than $50 billion in 2023 alone, according to the Congressional Research Service – perpetuates security dependency, and neutralizes any desire for Arab unity.

The United Arab Emirates completed this logic of fragmentation by recently announcing its withdrawal from OPEC, undermining the main bargaining power of Arab producers vis-à-vis the United States and the West. Each monarchy cultivates its “special relationship” with Washington, discreetly marginalizing regional solidarity. Divided, they are worth infinitely more to Washington than united. And Washington, since Kissinger, has orchestrated this division with cold and unwavering mastery.

One wonders how states sitting on the largest hydrocarbon reserves on the planet, managers of sovereign wealth funds among the most powerful in the world – the Saudi PIF exceeds $900 billion in 2025, the Emirati ADIA flirts with $1 trillion – abdicated their security sovereignty into the hands of a power whose fundamental interests structurally diverged from their own?

The paradox is that these states financed their own containment by hosting bases whose real operational objectives were aimed at Eurasia, not their own protection. They acquired weapons over which they had no control: neither the software code, nor the munitions supply chains, nor the political conditions of use – as painfully demonstrated by the US embargo on precision bombs destined for Saudi Arabia, briefly imposed by the Biden administration in 2021 at the height of the war in Yemen. They recycled their petrodollars to finance the debt of the country that dominated them.

In short, in May 2026, while the Trump administration is negotiating directly with Iran in Oman over nuclear issues, the Gulf monarchies are neither consulted nor informed in real time. Agreements directly concerning them are concluded behind their backs. This scene – seemingly anecdotal – is in reality the perfect metaphor for forty years of a relationship called an alliance, which is nothing more than a willing vassalage.

The story of this alliance is like that of a tenant who has paid exorbitant rent for forty years only to discover, one morning in crisis, that the lease contained a clause he had never read – or refused to read: the security provided expressly excludes cases where your interests conflict with those of the landlord.

This clause has always existed. It is simply written in the invisible ink of American realpolitik.

Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in the geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University