By: Haroon Aziz, South Africa
The Trump administration, of all previous administrations is the most interventionist in business, against which Adam Smith had warned. In the first 100 days Trump issued more than 140 executive orders that affected almost all aspects of life with the objective to increase the circulation of domestic money, including cryptocurrencies.
Introduction
What was the primary purpose of USA military invasion of Venezuela?
1-Dramatic demonstration of inhuman military power; or
2-Oil
Military power
President Trump deceptively uses an ‘easy-going’ style of leadership. But he takes ironclad direction from the Pentagon military leadership in compliance with the National Security Strategy (NSS) of 2025, which says, ‘we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.’
Monroe Doctrine
NSS reincarnates the 203-year-old Monroe Doctrine, which had warned European powers to keep their hands-off the ‘Western Hemisphere’ as its exclusive sphere.
NSS is biased towards the military (with 21 entries) and only eight entries on diplomacy. The military is coupled with reviving USA’s ‘defence industrial base’. It seeks energy dominance in oil, gas, coal, and nuclear. Its foreign policy demonstrates bellicose jingoism.
USA’s ‘state capture doctrine’ versus the UN act of state doctrine
The ‘state capture doctrine’ provided the rationale for the military invasion. The act of state doctrine is UN international law.
The ‘state capture doctrine’ was developed by the World Bank in September 2000 titled – “Seize the State, Seize the Day: State Capture, Corruption, and Influence in Transition”. It was aimed at oligarchs who ‘capture the state’ by trying to curtail their corrupting influence on the public sector. It targeted Russian oligarchs during the transition from the collapsed ‘communist’ to capitalist economies in the 1990s.
President Putin, at the Roundtable of Twenty-one Russian oligarchs in July 2000 in Moscow said, ‘I only want to draw your attention straightaway to the fact that you have yourselves formed this very state, to a large extent through political and quasi-political structures under your control. So perhaps what you should do least of all is blame the mirror.’
USA applied its domestic court judgment in Venezuela
The USA obtained a judgment in its domestic court and applied it militarily beyond its jurisdiction in Venezuela as extra-judicial ‘justification’ for the metaphorical decapitation of an elected State President. This was preceded by media propaganda disputing the legitimacy of his democratic election.
The application violated the sovereignty of Venezuela. The legal judgments of one state cannot be applied in another state. Anarchy is prevented. In the manufactured judgment the logical conclusion of ‘state capture’ is derived from the non-existent drug ‘Cartel of the Suns’. What was vaguely applied to oligarchs is now being applied to President Maduro and the First Lady.
The end of petrodollars
The key to the control of the ‘Western Hemisphere’ is the oil of Venezuela as the alternative to Saudi oil, which was coupled with petrodollars. But the ‘secret’ 50-year petrodollar contract between USA and Saudi Arabia expired in June 2024. It had stipulated that oil exports be priced in US dollars and that the surplus dollars be invested in US Treasury bonds. In return, the USA provided a dependant Saudi Arabia with military weapons, protection, support, and defence. This contract had shaped geopolitics, geo-economics, and international financial structure for fifty years, which are now collapsing. China, Russia, and the Global South are on the rise. The hegemony of the paper dollar is as threatened as USA hegemony.
Against the background of dramatic shifts in international politics and economics, as at 21 October 2025, USA debt stood at $38-trillion while its GDP was $30-trillion – debt exceeded wealth. This is symptom of fundamental imperial decline.
At a deeper unstated level, the invasion was intended to produce a new sustainable source for the transactional capacity and capability of the dollar. Venezuelan oil would ‘hopefully’ give the dollar a basis just as Saudi oil once did.
From decline to attempted incline
The Trump administration, of all previous administrations is the most interventionist in business, against which Adam Smith had warned. In the first 100 days Trump issued more than 140 executive orders that affected almost all aspects of life with the objective to increase the circulation of domestic money, including cryptocurrencies. He pressured investors to revive pipeline projects and incentivized capital movements. In November 2025 Federal Bank regulators relaxed regulations that previously hindered them from assisting the $30-trillion Treasuries market.
Foreign haste
After USA’s failed 1000 coercive measures imposed on Venezuela to induce organic unrest and regime change it hastened ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’ (OAR) on 3 January 2026, which was an upscaled version of its failed ‘Operation Shock and Awe’ in Iraq in 2003.
The new feature of the OAR was the use of the Boeing EA-18G Growler, which is an electronic warfare aircraft that replaced the EA-6B Prowlers used in Iraq. The gun-less Growler jams radar and communication system. It reportedly costs $68-million, with a maximum speed of 1960 km/h or Mach1.6 and a range of 1570 km. It electronically blanked out Caracas, coupled with electricity blackout. It demonstrated heightened military power ‘successfully’.
Operation Absolute Resolve (OAR)
OAR was a targeted small-scale elitist operation of a short duration of about two hours in general and about an hour in the actual capture and abduction of President Maduro and First Lady Flores.
The invasion was led by the Growler with the active support of 150 aircrafts, 15000 standby troops at sea, and 200 special operations commanders. It was preceded by months of preparation, which included the buy-out of Venezuelan traitors for the installation of jamming equipment in advance of the raid.
The Growler neutralized Venezuela’s sophisticated and multi-layered networks, equipped with Russian weapons that integrates all defence capabilities, including entry-level S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems as well as medium-range systems such as Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M systems.
The Growler also outsmarted the Chinese-made sensors and the Chinese JY-27A radar, which was supposed to have detected stealth aircraft at a range of up to 240 km.
The Bolivarian Army of Venezuela was under-equipped electronically to apply the military law of proportionate response. It is a major lesson for the armies of the Global South.
The high costs of small-scale operations
OAR was a high-cost item (unconfirmed $600-million) in the USA’s annual military budget of almost $1-trillion and proved that it was suitable for only a small-scale elitist operation (with no change in government). It is almost certain that countries like China, Russia, and Iran will invent equipment to counter the Growler. Iran as a low-cost drone and missile specialist will keep in mind that the Growler can attack low-flying drones. The line between air-ground littoral battlespace is blurred.
While OAR was ostensibly ‘successful’ in its theatrics it violated international law and exposed the anachronism of the Monroe Doctrine, abduction, and sea piracy as foreign policy instruments.
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
The Institute published a scientific study ‘Rewiring Venezuelan Crude Oil: Impacts, Risks, and Market Constraints’ (12 January 2026).
It identifies the key inflection points and the historical vagaries of Venezuelan oil in the 111-year-period (1914-2025).
It also identifies the gap between political rhetoric and on-the-ground realities. It examines the salient features of Venezuelan oil and the potential impacts of military invasion on oil markets and on non-Western investors, particularly, China, which reportedly has about 600 joint projects in Venezuela (unconfirmed).
Proven oil reserves
The proven reserves are estimated at 300-billion barrels. The core asset is the Orinico Oil Belt with an estimated 281-billion barrels of heavy and extra-heavy crude.
By contrast, Venezuela’s conventional light and medium crude reserves are estimated at 20.3-billion barrels, which provide diluent and blending components for commercialized Orinoco production.
As the conventional reserves are largely matured, they require costly secondary recovery techniques. Renewed exploration has been lying dormant for 25 years. The mature oilfields in western Venezuela need reactivation.
An asymmetry is juxtaposed between its natural endowment and its actual output – down from 1.3-million bpd (2015) to 930000 bpd (2025).
Reality: sour versus sweet crude
Heavy sour crude accounted for about 75% of production in 2025, up from 50% in 2014-2015. The output is predominantly heavy to extra-heavy. It does not meet sweet Brent Blend specifications. It requires diluent for transport and refinery processing with increased costs for higher upgrading and Sulphur treatment.
In 2025 exports averaged about 800000 bpd, of which China purchased 51% and the USA, 130000 bpd. China’s import of Venezuelan oil accounts for only 3% of its total oil import. Chinese banks have lent Venezuela about $50-billion since 2007, which are repaid with oil. The current loan balance is about $10-billion. Chinese companies have investments in not only upstream but also in downstream such as ports, roads and telecoms. China’s main concerns are contract cancellations, debt restructuring, and geopolitical uncertainty.
The Monroe Doctrine treats oil as a strategic geopolitical asset. But USA Big Oil (except Chevron) has politely shown little interest in investing in Venezuela.
State of deterioration
Two decades of underinvestment and sanctions have resulted in deterioration of infrastructure, reduction in production, and frequent shutdowns. This necessitated costly blending by joint ventures with USA, Chinese, and Russian partners.
There are almost no active drilling rigs. There are outdated and poorly maintained pipelines, insufficient storage capacity, corroded tankers, and inadequate port and loading infrastructure. In addition, there are maintenance failures, fires, leaks, and persistent power blackouts as well as disruptions across the entire oil production and export system.
Reality in plain arithmetic
The cost of refining light sweet crudes is about $10-$15 per barrel but for sour heavy and high Sulphur grades, $30-$40 per barrel.
Medium to heavy crude have about 2% Sulphur and its distillate yield from the atmospheric unit is reduced to about 40%. There are higher costs involved in cracking, coking, hydrotreating, and Sulphur recovery. In contrast, light crude yield is about 60%.
(Jerry Toman, former heavy oil refining engineer and economic analyst at Petroleos de Venezuela).
White House Summit
At the White House Summit on Big Oil investment in Venezuela in January 2026 ExxonMobil Chairperson, Mr Darren Woods, in a polite business-like manner said that Venezuela was an ‘uninvestable’ country and that its commercial frameworks and legal system had to be changed for ‘durable investment protections’. He offered evasive promise to investigate the opportunity and echoed the sentiments of Big Oil. A few days later President Trump vengefully vowed to block ExxonMobil from returning to Venezuela.
Will the new USA tactic work?
The CIA Director, Mr John Ratcliffe, met interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriduez on 15 January 2026 in Caracas. He said, ‘Washington looks forward to an improved working relationship’ – accepting the legitimacy of government. He discussed intelligence cooperation, economic stability, and ending Venezuela’s role as a ‘safe haven for America’s adversaries.’ The adversaries being China and Russia.
On 16 January President Trump in Washington argued that dismantling Venezuela’s government and security apparatus would risk chaos and insisted that President Rodriguez offer a ‘controlled, stable, and effective’ transition. ‘Remember Iraq,’ he told reporters.’ The USA had fired everyone and it ended up being ISIS anarchy.
USA’s unilateral decision
The USA has unilaterally decided that it would allow the Venezuelan government to retain political power in order to maintain stability for the USA to take absolute control of the oil industry. It would sell the oil and retain the proceeds in foreign banks outside Venezuela.
It is the antiquated American concessionary system in which the landowner retains ownership of land surface but concedes the mineral wealth including oil to a private company to exploit for its own profit. It is as antiquated as the Monroe Doctrine. It violates national sovereignty.
Bolivarian process: Aluta Continua!
With their permanent mobilization, the ruling party, government, Integral Bolivarian Base Committee, Great Patriotic Pole, Bolivarian Army, PSUV Youth, children, trade unions, teachers, mass-letter-writing campaigners, permanent Chavismo movement, and social movements including the Bolivarian Civil Militia are asserting their sovereignty with deep roots in civil-military unity.
Will the new imperial tactic work?
Conclusion
The answers to the primary purpose of the military invasion point to:
- It did achieve the demonstration of inhuman military power to the world.
It did not achieve a hold on oil because President Trump could not convince Big Oil to risk private investment.
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