EU’s strategic miscalculation

By Rasoul Mousavi

Former Iranian ambassador to Finland, Estonia

On Thursday, at the close of a meeting of European Union foreign ministers, Kaja Kallas of Estonia, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, outlined four issues in a brief two-minute interview, which included the designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization” by EU member states, assistance aimed at improving conditions in Syria, support for efforts to establish peace in Gaza, and sanctions against both sides in the Sudan conflict. Kallas said EU foreign ministers had decided, with the aim of pressuring the Iranian government and supporting Iranian civil society, to place the IRGC on the terrorist list of member states.

In response to a journalist’s question asking whether listing the IRGC amounted to EU support for a US military strike on Iran, Kallas said that declaring the force a terrorist organization meant its activities would fall under the criminal laws of member states, adding that the region did not need another war.
Placing the Guards on the EU’s discredited terrorist list is not new and was first raised more than two years ago. At that time, I personally suggested to the late FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian that if Europeans persisted with such rhetoric, Iran might assign responsibility for the security of European embassies in Tehran to the IRGC, so that Europeans would understand how their security in Tehran was ensured

Amir-Abdollahian listened carefully and responded in more measured terms that, if this were to happen, military attachés of European countries would also have to leave Tehran. Following that exchange, European positions receded from view for some time. The issue has now resurfaced, notably at a meeting where Iran was the first agenda item and Syria, with its particular history, the second.
European officials did not even take the trouble to study regional developments over the past three years to understand where the actual centers of terrorism have been and who has acted against it. In her interview, Kallas stated openly that the purpose of listing the IRGC was to exert pressure on the Iranian government, thereby publicly acknowledging the political nature of the foreign ministers’ decision.
She presented no evidence of terrorist activity by the Guards, instead describing the move as a political tool to pressure Tehran and support civil society, while leaving its implementation to the criminal laws of member states.
The EU today finds itself in its weakest political, security and military position. It has lost its moral capital through support for the war crimes of Benjamin Netanyahu, and its economic capital through backing the inconclusive war in Ukraine. Militarily, Europe has never carried real weight without the United States, and its claims of military capability are now openly mocked by Donald Trump himself.
The political nature of Europe’s decision to list the Guards means that, just as the force is being placed on the list by a political decision, it could also be removed by another political decision in the future. However, Europe should recognize that designating the official defense force of a sovereign state sets a dangerous precedent in international law and international relations.
While it must be said with regret that recent US actions under Trump have severely undermined the credibility of international law, Europe, which claims to uphold international rights and values, is engaging in a process whose consequences it does not fully grasp.
In seeking to bridge the transatlantic gap, Europe is widening its divide with Asia and Africa, failing to recognize that it is a neighbor to Asia and Africa through Islamic countries. Preoccupied with the Ukraine crisis to its east, Europe is losing sight of developments to its south.
The IRGC is Iran’s official defense force and, over two centuries of Iranian history, represents the only force to have emerged from deep within Iranian society itself. It is fully self-sufficient and has no dependence on other countries for its military needs. As such, the EU’s declaration will have no impact on the Guards’ operational or combat capabilities, except that it is likely to expose the Union to numerous legal challenges in the near future.
Europe has taken this risk based on a flawed calculation that the current face-off between Iran and the United States will quickly end in Washington’s favor, allowing Europe to cash in on its political alignment by seeking a reward from the United States. What Europe fails to see is that it has made a strategic error, and that regardless of how the current Iran-US confrontation ends, Europe will emerge as the strategic loser.