By Mohamad Hammoud
Iran’s rapid military modernization is transforming its deterrence strategy, signaling the emergence of a new balance of power in an increasingly fragmented global order.
For decades, Tehran’s defense doctrine emphasized regional deterrence over global projection due to geographic and strategic constraints.
This posture has evolved: in January, Iranian officials and analysts reported a successful test-fire of a ballistic missile with a range of nearly 10,000 kilometers.
Defense Security Asia described Tehran's test as a technological milestone, signaling maturity for a program once reserved for a handful of major powers.
Although Western governments have not publicly released independent confirmation, the broader strategic signal has already begun to reshape security calculations.
Even the credible possibility of such a capability alters deterrence dynamics, reflecting Iran’s response to years of sanctions, military pressure, and persistent threats of force. Within that context, Tehran’s pursuit of extended-range deterrence appears less as a departure from precedent and more as a continuation of adaptation under constraint.
Lessons Drawn from Conflict and the Turn to Modernization
This trajectory did not emerge in a vacuum. Iran’s current trajectory was shaped decisively by the June 2025 conflict with “Israel.” According to The Jerusalem Post, “Israeli” officials claimed extensive success during what they termed “Operation Rising Lion”, highlighting the effectiveness of modern air campaigns against exposed targets. For Iranian planners, the conflict underscored the need to accelerate long-delayed modernization rather than rely on outdated systems.
The response was swift. In the months that followed, Caspian News reported that Iran deployed advanced Russian S-400 air defense systems alongside Chinese HQ-9 interceptors to protect nuclear facilities and strategic infrastructure. Iranian defense officials described the deployment as the establishment of an integrated air-defense shield designed to stabilize deterrence and reduce the likelihood of miscalculation.
Underlying this modernization was an economic recalibration as well. WION reported that energy-for-technology agreements with Russia and China enabled Tehran to bypass conventional procurement bottlenecks, illustrating Iran’s capacity to translate economic leverage into strategic resilience under sustained external pressure.
Air Power and Electronic Resilience
Air defense was not enough; modernization expanded to air power and electronic resilience. United24 reported, citing Russian defense sources, that Moscow began producing 16 Su-35 fighters for Iran, which are expected to greatly strengthen its air defense.
According to military analysts quoted by United24, the Su-35 platforms are designed to operate alongside Russian electronic warfare systems, including Khibiny-M pods intended to disrupt hostile radar and targeting systems.
Together, these capabilities reflect Iran’s adoption of a doctrine of denial, raising the operational cost of any external military action.
Strategic Reach as Stabilizing Deterrence
This logic of deterrence extends beyond the air domain. On January 20, 2026, Iranian media cited Majlis member Mohsen Zanganeh as confirming the test of one of Iran’s most advanced missiles, previously undisclosed.
Defense Security Asia reported that analysts believe the system draws on technologies developed through Iran’s space launch programs, highlighting the dual-use efficiency of indigenous research.
From Tehran’s perspective, extended range is not framed as aggression but as strategic insurance.
The ability to launch from deep within national territory using mobile platforms enhances survivability and reduces incentives for preemptive strikes. In this sense, long-range capability functions less as a tool of expansion and more as a mechanism of stabilization within an increasingly volatile security environment.
Space Cooperation and Strategic Autonomy
That stabilization is reinforced by developments beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Iran’s growing strategic confidence is reinforced by its expanding access to space-based capabilities.
Iran International reported that in December 2025, a Russian Soyuz rocket placed three Iranian satellites into orbit, including the Paya imaging satellite designed for high-resolution observation.
Analysts at the Robert Lansing Institute reported that intelligence-sharing provisions within the Iran–Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership grant Tehran access to advanced satellite data. This development closes a long-standing intelligence gap and enables independent situational awareness—a capability historically reserved for Western powers and their closest allies.
A Rebalanced Security OrderThese developments indicate more than incremental improvement.
The convergence of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian innovation has produced a self-sustaining defense ecosystem. Iran’s doctrine now signals that security arrangements must account for multipolar realities.
The result is recalibration, not recklessness. In an international system where the rules are enforced unevenly and close allies are permitted to expand their military power without consequence, Iran’s actions represent a calculated adjustment rather than an impulsive gamble.
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