Ahmad Za’ran – West Asia Affairs Expert
The selection of Nouri al-Maliki by the Shia Coordination Framework before the parliamentary session to elect the president constitutes a new phase in Iraq’s political sphere.
With the exception of the 2005 election, in all previous electoral periods the selection of a prime minister was marked by significant difficulties, and the process was never concluded within the stipulated legal timeframe. However, in the recent election, despite the presence of influential figures such as Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, whose coalition managed to secure the most seats, and despite some disagreements among political blocs within the Coordination Framework, ultimately, based on agreed-upon mechanisms, Nouri al-Maliki was introduced as prime minister by the largest coalition within parliament, consisting of approximately 180 representatives (the Coordination Framework).
Multiple factors played a role in al-Maliki’s selection, the most important being the prevailing situation in Iraq and the region. The developments, crises, and wars of the past two years in the region have made Iraq’s political and security situation complex and fragile. Under such circumstances, Iraq requires a powerful and experienced prime minister who can keep the country from the dangers of war and crisis.
Challenging Days Ahead for Iraq’s Future Government
Of course, Nouri al-Maliki, whose selection as prime minister was welcomed by some important non-Shia currents such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq, will face numerous challenges on his path ahead. The first and most important challenge for al-Maliki will be balancing Iraq’s relations with Iran and America.
Given America’s campaign of maximum pressure against Iran, America’s unequivocal support and all-around backing for the Zionist regime in the 12-day war, America’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, America’s continuous threats against Iran, and finally, America’s intense effort to distance Iraq from Iran, it seems that Iraq’s future prime minister faces significant difficulties in this domain.
From 2003 until now, the conflict of interests between Iran and America has never been so impactful on Iraq. Just as the American president recently threatened Baghdad over the selection of Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister, America, and of course the Zionist regime, have also never been so openly desirous of distancing Iraq from Iran, nor have they threatened Iraqi officials to this extent to achieve this goal.
America’s Plot to Disarm Resistance Groups in Iraq
The next challenge for Iraq, pursued by America and exerting pressure on the Iraqi government, is the issue of the state’s monopoly on weapons. If Iraq’s future government wants to pursue the issue of weapon restriction or disarmament within the framework of America’s desire and based on the definition Americans provide for paramilitary or terrorist groups, it will certainly come into confrontation with currents that possess political power and social depth. Most of these currents are, of course, also members of the Coordination Framework.
Meanwhile, America is pursuing the removal of resistance groups from the political scene. Therefore, any pressure Washington exerts on Iraq’s future government in this regard will place the prime minister in confrontation with groups that have played a role in bringing the prime minister to power in some form.
America believes it has various tools at its disposal to implement its threats. Given that Iraq’s oil revenues are managed and controlled by America, applying economic pressure by blocking financial and monetary channels is one of the most important and easiest measures Washington thinks it can utilize to achieve its goals in Iraq.
Considering that oil revenues constitute approximately 90% of Iraq’s income, restricting these revenues by America will place Iraq in a very difficult situation. Furthermore, as Trump has implicitly threatened, the Americans possess other tools, such as leveraging political currents aligned with themselves against the prime minister, inflaming the political and social atmosphere by creating street unrest (a situation similar to 2019), and also the tool of terrorism (ISIS), and they may use these tools to even create the conditions for the prime minister’s downfall.
Internal Challenges
Another challenge for Nouri al-Maliki is serious opponents within Shia currents and old enemies. The crisis of government formation in 2021 and 2022 stemmed from the opposition of these currents to including al-Maliki in power, which ultimately led to the bloody events in the Green Zone. Therefore, internal opposition and confrontation with Iraq’s future government led by Nouri al-Maliki could create very difficult conditions for Iraq.
In summary, although al-Maliki is a powerful, experienced, influential individual who enjoys the support of Shia currents and a portion of the Kurds, he faces a difficult path ahead.
If America insists on its policy of distancing Iraq from Iran or placing Iraq in opposition to Iran, and wants to place al-Maliki against Iran or Iraqi resistance groups, the principle of balance and consensus in Iraq will be destroyed, and this country will be exposed to a crisis of political and security instability.
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