The budding defense alliance between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye threatens to undo Israel and the UAE's plans to balkanize West Asia.
The Cradle
In response, the UAE swiftly moved on 19 January to formalize a more structured nuclear defense agreement with New Delhi. India cautiously downplayed the development, sensing that the India–UAE defense collaboration would affect the Indian diaspora in Saudi Arabia. India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told the media that the “letter of intent” on defense cooperation did not mean that New Delhi would be involved in a regional conflict.
The India–UAE nuclear pact includes provisions on atomic energy safety and reactor deployment – and appears to have the quiet endorsement of Tel Aviv. Israeli media wasted no time branding it a tripartite Israel–India–UAE alliance. Senior columnist, Shakil Ahmad, who is published regularly in Pakistan’s leading Urdu newspapers, tells The Cradle:
“In fact, Israel wants a rift among West Asian nations so that it could continue with its nefarious designs. India collaborates closely with Israel for this purpose. We should view the recent defense agreement between India and the UAE in this context. The only aim of this understanding is to create ill will among powerful West Asian economies so that there is no resistance against Tel Aviv’s expansionist design.”
Regarding Turkiye joining the Saudi–Pakistan accord, Ahmad observes that Riyadh had sectarian differences with Tehran as opposed to Ankara – with whom it had only political disagreements – but now both sides understood that their mutual rift would serve the purpose of their enemies alone:
“Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye each offer unique contributions to the table. Pakistan can leverage its strategic depth, missile capabilities, and nuclear deterrent, as demonstrated in the four-day war with India.”
The rise of the Riyadh–Ankara–Islamabad axis
A senior official in Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms to The Cradle that Ankara has formally proposed a military alliance with Riyadh and Islamabad.
“It might be a stopgap transient cooperation for limited objectives and scope,” the official says, without elaborating on what these “objectives” are.
Still, both Pakistani and Turkish authorities have signaled that the alliance is moving forward. They say joint operations will soon commence under a framework designed to bring “stability and peace” to West Asia.
According to Ahmad, the new axis unites the three states' core strengths: Pakistan's strategic depth and nuclear deterrence, Saudi Arabia's vast financial resources, and Turkiye's battle-tested conventional military and growing arms industry.
This realignment comes after Hamas's unprecedented Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023 and Israel’s brutal response; regional equations have shifted dramatically. The UAE and Tel Aviv have entrenched themselves within failed or fragmented states, from Libya and Sudan to Egypt and Somalia. Their strategy: exploit state weakness to extend influence and normalize ties with Israel.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have aligned around a different doctrine – one that supports strong, central governments capable of resisting Tel Aviv and its Gulf partners. Strengthening defense ties is central to that plan.
“Saudi Arabia and Turkiye had not been seeing eye-to-eye with each other due to several historical, political, and geostrategic issues, but in the last few years, their mutual differences narrowed down, and they began converging on shared security threats emanating from the US’s unrestricted support for Israeli atrocities and its unwarranted bombing of Iran,” Ahmad explains.
Riyadh's military outreach intensifies
Saudi Arabia is doubling down. Alongside the Pakistan–Turkiye initiative, Riyadh is now pursuing military cooperation with Egypt and Somalia – a direct response to Emirati power plays across Africa and the Red Sea.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to finalize a defense pact with the kingdom. This understanding comes on the heels of Somalia's recent annulment of port and security agreements with the UAE, which it accused of undermining Somali sovereignty.
The fallout has been swift with the withdrawal of the UAE from the Yemeni theater following Saudi airstrikes on UAE-backed proxies and Riyadh’s overt stance against Abu Dhabi's disruptive military presence. The kingdom is especially incensed by Israel's overtures to Somaliland, which it sees as part of a wider plan to destabilize the Horn of Africa.
Mark Kinra, an Indian geopolitical analyst specializing in West Asia, tells The Cradle that Riyadh's pivot has less to do with its friction with the UAE and more with Washington's waning commitment to the region.
“Pakistan has traditionally acted as the main security guarantor for Saudi Arabia, and the present US position in West Asia, along with its indifferent approach, has led both nations to reassess and adjust their defense strategies.”
Kinra adds that the alliance will influence US–Iran tensions; generally, the US will no longer be the exclusive guarantor of security in West Asia. Furthermore, any lethal US intervention in Iran will exacerbate tensions between Iranians and the alliance partners, particularly if they offer any support to the US.
The UAE and India respond
Tel Aviv's partners are watching closely. As news broke of the budding Saudi–Pakistani–Turkish bloc, Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) made a lightning visit to India. Within hours, the two states signed a wide-ranging defense pact – not just military, but also encompassing liquefied natural gas (LNG), trade, space, and atomic energy.
The joint statement made waves in Islamabad. It included a vague condemnation of “cross-border terrorism,” often used by India to vilify Pakistan.
Tel Aviv celebrated the agreement, which has even been framed by some analysts as the formalization of an Israel–India–UAE military axis.
Kinra dismisses the notion that the UAE–India pact rivals the Saudi–Pakistani–Turkish alliance as a strategic partnership rather than a military bloc. But he notes that the nuclear cooperation element is significant, especially given Israel's involvement.
Turkiye eyes strategic depth
For Ankara, this trilateral initiative offers multiple dividends. Turkiye and Pakistan signed a significant defense cooperation pact in March last year, and Turkiye has since accelerated defense localization agreements with Saudi Arabia. A recent deal between Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) and Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar signals deeper military integration.
“Turkiye will undoubtedly reap the benefits of having access to Saudi Arabia's financial resources, which will also provide a boost to the Turkish military sector. Additionally, the influence of Turkiye will continue to grow in both West Asia and South Asia under this arrangement,” Kinra says.
Turkiye sees the alliance as a response to Tel Aviv's unchecked aggression in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon – and Washington's unwillingness to restrain it.
The alignment is not aimed at the UAE but rather reflects a shared urgency among Muslim states to consolidate power amid growing threats.
While it remains to be seen whether the Riyadh–Ankara–Islamabad axis can evolve into a long-term counterweight to Tel Aviv and its western allies, its emergence marks a clear pushback against decades of divide-and-rule tactics.
No comments:
Post a Comment