Who will Blink First in the Arabian Sea: Onward Christian Soldiers for Israel?

In recent months, tensions between Washington and Tehran have intensified amid a significant U.S. naval buildup in the Middle East, raising fears among analysts and world leaders of a possible military confrontation.

Seth Ferris

The United States has dispatched a second aircraft carrier strike group and multiple warships to the Arabian Sea, as well as approximately 50% of its air force strike power, as part of a purported broader strategy of ramping up the pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs, a move Tehran sees as provocative. The U.S. posture appears aimed at coercing Iran, rather than responding to a direct, imminent US national security threat, and likely acting in the interests of Israel rather than those of the US public.

Iran will not be alone

I hope memories are not so short, that people have already forgotten the plethora of US warships that surrounded Venezuela before Maduro and his wife were kidnapped. Under international law, forcibly taking a sitting head of state from their own country without that state’s consent is considered a violation of sovereignty and can be described legally as abduction or extraterritorial kidnapping, as well as an act of war (please take note Lindsay Graham and other war hawks who think that doing the same thing to Russia would be a good idea).

To put so many ships in one small area, so far from their home ports, is asking for a day or two of shooting sitting ducks on a BIG lake

The US is now doing the same with Iran. It is become only too clear that they WILL be going to war with Iran, not in response to a direct threat but as foot soldiers for Israel. However, I think that this time around the that 4 nations have agreed to a security pact: Iran, Russia, China, and Pakistan – will respond accordingly. Meanwhile, the saber-rattling is intensifying with Pakistan giving the impression, in not so many words, that if Israel nukes Tehran, Pakistan will retaliate by nuking Tel Aviv in response. In short, the US is playing with fire, and Israel, still carrying out genocide in Gaza, is crazy and deluded enough to use nukes.

The firepower is moving into place but where is the staying power, to maintain world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, which is reportedly joining the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea, and not to mention the support ships, logistical chains, and for the US to be able to resupply so many ships during a shooting war is not on the level of being just-in-time, this is particularly the case with the Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) that are used by US Navy warships for storing and launching air defence, anti-shipping and land attack missiles. These VLS launchers cannot be reloaded at sea, requiring specific specialist port facilities, the nearest of which are at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. I really don’t know what the US hopes to, or can, achieve if it becomes a shooting war. At that point no holds will be barred, and it will not end well for the region as a whole, to put it mildly

Signs of a real war to come!

So is Trump, without Congressional approval, ready for a large-scale strike against Iran and is he willing to absorb the response? The Department of War is carrying out a continuous transfer of large military forces in the Middle East. In late February, over a period of 24 hours alone, 50 fighter jets landed in the region, including the latest F-22 Raptors and F-35s, as well as 150 military transport place that will transport weapons and combat material.

There is even talk now of sending a third aircraft carrier, which would mean upwards of 40 percent of the Naval strength of the US will be sitting like ducks on a lake in front of Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-shipping missiles. There are about 35 warships deployed to the region, including destroyers, amphibious assault vehicles and nuclear submarines that carry hundreds of Tomahawk-type missiles. US military units, whose rotations were running out, were extended to work at local bases. In total, the region consists of about 50,000 troops. This is the largest deployment of forces since the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The US administration estimates the probability of a military strike on Iran as above 90%.

Already in reaction to the moves of the US activity, joint naval exercises between Iran and Russia are underway. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Corvette “Stoiki” and Iranian navy carried out maneuvers in the Gulf of Oman “to ensure the safety of civilian ships”. The onset of the naval exercises started on the 19^th of February.

This concentration of forces in the confined waters of the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas has drawn criticism for creating vulnerabilities. Analysts and military observers note that such a dense assembly of high-value targets in a relatively enclosed maritime theater could expose U.S. ships to rapid, coordinated attacks using Iran’s arsenal of anti-ship missiles, drones, and other asymmetric capabilities, such as catamaran hulled fast attack boats, potentially turning naval assets into stationary targets during any initial exchange of fire.

Critics of the policy contend that these maneuvers serve multiple underlying purposes beyond stated objectives related to Iran’s nuclear program and regional stability. Some argue that the actions function as a proxy advancement of Israeli security interests, given the close alignment between the Trump administration and the Israeli government on confronting Tehran. Others suggest the deployments provide a politically expedient diversion amid domestic pressures, including the recent release of extensive files related to Jeffrey Epstein by the Department of Justice, which have intensified scrutiny and controversy surrounding the president and his associates.

Furthermore, allegations persist in certain quarters that the military posture may reflect obligations to key campaign donors (many of whom are Jewish and hold dual US-Israeli citizenship) or personal financial entanglements, framing the Iran crisis as a mechanism to shift public and media attention from ongoing domestic controversies, such as the Epstein scandal.

Backing himself into a corner!

As negotiations remain stalled—with Trump indicating a decision window of approximately 10 to 15 days before potential “bad things” occur—the situation underscores the delicate balance between diplomatic leverage and the risks of unintended escalation in one of the world’s most volatile waterways.

All these actions, related to the showdown, i.e., a big game of chicken with Iran: moves or provocations, however you want to describe the decision of the Trump administration and the Department of War, who can both be best described as proxies of Israel, are both a convenient distraction from the hellfire that is falling on his head over the Epstein files, related legal scandal, and as a way to pay back those who funded his elections campaign, put money into his and his family members personal pockets, and serves as a global warning “not to mess with the USA!”

To put so many ships in one small area, so far from their home ports, is asking for a day or two of shooting sitting ducks on a BIG lake.

Trump prefers easier targets. Greenland. Venezuela. 12-year-old girls, and illegal immigrants, so there is hope that he may blink first. If he doesn’t, out of misplaced ego and pride, or threats of worse information being released by his lord and master, Netanyahu, then the results will be catastrophic.

We are already seeing ominous signs of Chinese support, including clear and detailed photos from Chinese civilian satellites being put on the internet, clearly marking the location of US aircraft, ships, and air defence missile complexes, enabling the Iranians to target these with accuracy.

Trump is banking on the threat of military force, while talking about a “limited strike” to “force regime change”, but the fact is, that airpower cannot win wars by itself, it needs troops on the ground, and Iran is no Iraq, it has a well equipped armed forces, capable of hitting targets as far away as the Balkans in Europe, and more than capable of hitting not only any US base in the region, but also closing the straits of Hormuz, as well as destroying the oil infrastructure of any US ally in the region that even allows its airspace to be used for an attack.

In addition, the Iranians will certainly unleash their full firepower on Israel. As shown in the 12-day war, Israeli air defence was helpless in the later stages against the more advanced Iranian ballistic missiles.

Zion Don, as he has been nicknamed, so keen to boast about his economic achievements (also based on threats and intimidation) may well find that he will go down in history not only as the man who is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in the region, but of the impoverishment of billions around the world.

Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs