As Islamabad locks down borders and Washington enforces isolation, Kabul turns decisively east, anchoring itself in new Eurasian corridors led by Iran, Russia, and China.
The Cradle
The shift coincided with rapidly escalating tensions between Afghanistan and its former ally. After Pakistani airstrikes in mid-October 2025 on Afghan territory – targeting what Islamabad claimed were militant hideouts – Kabul severed trade ties and closed border crossings. The Pakistan–Afghanistan border has remained shut since then.
With the rupture now entrenched, Kabul is reorienting its economic compass toward Iran and aligning its future with the emerging Eurasian trade bloc led by China and Russia.
As Kabul contemplates severing connections with Pakistan, the Iran–Afghanistan Railway Corridor gains strategic urgency, offering an alternative route for both transit trade and essential supplies.
Kabul’s pivot to the east
Afghanistan has inked new rail agreements with neighboring countries to transform itself from a landlocked battleground into a central node for regional commerce. At the heart of this effort is the revival of the 225-kilometer Khaf–Herat Railway, a project bridging Iran's eastern city of Khaf with Herat in western Afghanistan.
A senior official from the Afghan Railway Authority confirms to The Cradle that both countries have agreed in principle to press ahead with the corridor, with work now underway.
The project is part of a broader campaign to reroute regional trade away from Pakistani chokepoints, connecting Iran and Afghanistan to China, Central Asia, and eventually India. The corridor also dovetails with the Five Nations Railway Corridor (FNRC), a Eurasian initiative linking Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.
“This morning, I was somewhat taken aback to see bananas in the Kabul fruit market,” says Afghanistan’s Trade Minister Molvi Sahib Janan. “Upon inquiry, I learned that Iranian bananas had made their way to Afghanistan.” He tells The Cradle that Kabul remains committed to trade with “friendly neighboring countries,” stressing the importance of such ties in light of the border rupture with Pakistan.
Iran, Russia, and China converge
The rail push is also a node in the broader network of multipolar connectivity being built by Iran and its Eurasian allies. Facing continued western sanctions, Russia sees these corridors as economic lifelines and, by providing support, regards the initiatives as essential for establishing new economic corridors to the Global South and circumventing western sanctions. Moscow has endorsed the Khaf–Herat route and incorporated it into its larger Trans–Afghan Railway vision.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk confirmed in late December 2025 that specialists are actively evaluating possible rail routes through Afghanistan. These moves aim to open corridors toward southern markets and ports, bypassing western-controlled sea lanes. Islamabad-based security analyst and President of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, explains to The Cradle:
“The project is an old proposal; it was initially introduced during [former Afghanistani president] Ashraf Ghani's administration. Currently, they have made a definitive commitment to complete it. This proposal also involved the interests of India and Central Asia, as connecting the Eurasian, Chinese, and Indian markets provides a broader strategic outlook.”
He adds that Uzbekistan also shares a vision for connectivity, but due to the threat of militancy in some areas, there is now a shift toward safer routes through Iran to reach India and China.
Earlier this month, Iran’s top railway official Jabbar Ali Zakeri met in Kabul with Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. Both sides agreed to fast-track the corridor, aligning with Tehran’s goal of integrating regional economies from Iran to China.
Rana observes how regional conditions have shaped – and stalled – these projects:
“The geopolitical circumstances in the region have resulted in the stagnation of the Trans–Afghan Railway, Five Nations Railway, and other comparable initiatives. These projects may mutually reinforce each other during periods of significant economic growth, and when a consistent corridor is established, and they generate economic advantages.”
Pakistan’s isolationism backfires
Islamabad, meanwhile, is grappling with the consequences of its own strategic missteps. Since October 2025, it has shut all major crossings with Afghanistan, citing the Taliban's sheltering of anti-Pakistan militants. Border clashes and two Pakistani airstrikes inside Afghan territory, aimed at what Islamabad claimed were militant hideouts, have only deepened the rupture.
Afghanistan’s response has been bold: it has severed most trade ties with Pakistan and instructed its merchants to reroute commerce through Iran, India, and Central Asia.
New Delhi also officially upgraded its diplomatic presence in the country by restoring its technical mission in Kabul to the status of a full embassy. This strategic shift coincided with the deterioration in Pakistan–Afghanistan ties.
Recognizing the enduring economic challenges and mounting pressure from the business community, Pakistan extended an olive branch to Afghanistan last month; however, Kabul declined to accept and instead advised traders to shift their activities away from Pakistan.
Mullah Baradar gave traders three months to finalize outstanding accounts with Pakistan before cutting ties. In doing so, Kabul made it clear that it would no longer tolerate Islamabad’s use of borders as political weapons.
‘Trucks stuck, billions lost’
The economic fallout is staggering. Zia ul Haq Sarhadi, senior vice president of the Pakistan–Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI), tells The Cradle that border closures have cost Pakistan over $4.5 billion. “The shutdown has thrown a wrench in a trade corridor that used to generate billions annually,” he says. Sarhadi adds that:
“Bilateral trade between the two countries is in the ballpark of $2-3 billion annually, with Pakistan sending high-value goods across the border while Afghanistan leans on essential commodities, trading agricultural perishables in return.”
He also says that Pakistan's exports are a mixed bag, including cement, sugar, kinnows, potatoes, medicines, and surgical instruments, and points out that traders in Afghanistan have been in a tight spot – facing the brunt of losing access to crucial markets for dry fruits, grapes, pomegranates, and other perishables.
“The absence of export routes has resulted in a real pickle for farmers in border regions, leading to goods going to waste and immediate income losses. With over 8,000 trucks stuck at the Torkham and Chaman crossings, they’re racking up daily demurrage charges and fuel costs without seeing a dime,” Sarhadi reveals.
Iran’s long game pays off
While Pakistan closes its doors, Iran is flinging its gates open. The Islamic Republic has positioned itself as the region’s logistical linchpin, and the Khaf–Herat Corridor is just one spoke in a growing wheel of connectivity projects. For Tehran, this rail line not only secures access to Afghan markets but cements its role as a bridge between China, Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf.
The project also aligns with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and with Russia’s pivot toward the Global South. These convergences challenge US-led efforts to isolate Iran and the Taliban-led government in Kabul.
Afghanistan’s internal challenges are formidable, including economic woes, a humanitarian crisis, and security concerns. But the strategic realignment underway may offer a lifeline. As western powers attempt to maintain economic and political pressure, regional states aligned with multipolar trade corridors are forging alternatives. If Iran successfully establishes a connection with Afghanistan, it will significantly shift the geoeconomic landscape in the region, positioning Afghanistan as a crucial hub for trade between the Eurasian, Iranian, and Chinese markets.
Kabul bets on multipolarism
In rejecting Pakistan’s overtures last month to reopen trade, the Afghan government made clear that its future lies elsewhere.
In a statement on X, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid outlined the conditions for reopening the Pakistan–Afghanistan border. He said the crossings would remain closed until Pakistan provides “strong guarantees” that they will not be used as tools of political or economic pressure and that the rights of traders and citizens on both sides will be protected.
The PAJCCI, echoing business frustrations, urged Islamabad to resolve the impasse quickly. But Kabul appears unmoved. With trade rerouted and rail corridors redrawn, Afghanistan’s new direction is set – and it no longer runs through Pakistan.
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