Washington's ambitions to control the Western Hemisphere are escalating. Canadians should not underestimate what this means for their future.
The Cradle
“We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not,” Trump recently declared. “Because if we don’t, Russia or China will take over Greenland, and we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor.”
Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, has become the site of intense geopolitical rivalry. As the Arctic ice melts and shipping lanes open, its strategic importance has skyrocketed.
In addition to Trump’s bold claim that the US will “run” Venezuela after abducting its president, Nicolas Maduro, his crude approach to Greenland marks a shift toward overt land grabs as a form of American hegemony preservation. And if Washington is serious about claiming Greenland, what stops it from eyeing the even larger, better-connected, and more resource-rich Canada?
Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex the country. Just as the fear is that Greenland will cozy up with competing superpowers, so too does the Trump administration worry about Ottawa’s pursuit of other partners.
Considered America’s closest ally, Canada is the second-largest country and has the fourth-largest oil reserves in the world. With the end of America’s global dominance, the US wants full control over the Western Hemisphere.
Following two centuries of assassinations, coups, and military intervention throughout the Americas, the US has now turned to outright conquest. In an uncertain world, being an ally is not enough. For the paranoid empire, only annexation can guarantee security.
Brotherly bond and rivalry
The Canada–US relationship is like that of two brothers who share the same genealogy, get along, but sometimes fight. Both countries began as British colonies and split after the American Revolution. War broke out again in 1812 when America’s genocidal expansion into Indigenous land was halted by British Canada’s support for Tecumseh's confederacy, in a conflict which saw the White House burned down.
Though the war ended in a stalemate, US paranoia about its northern neighbor persisted. Until 1939, Washington maintained “War Plan Red,” a military strategy for invading Canada. The plan may have been shelved, but the instincts behind it never died.
Cooperation during the Cold War masked enduring strategic rifts. Ottawa joined NATO and helped militarize the Arctic, but refused to host nuclear weapons or support the US war in Vietnam. Even at the height of the Cold War, Canada kept cordial ties with Cuba. Former Canadian prime minister Pierre Trudeau and Fidel Castro were personal friends.
With the end of the Cold War, free market capitalism reigned supreme. In 1994, Canada joined the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) with Mexico and the US, greatly undermining its economic sovereignty.
Canada participated with the US in the 1991 Gulf War, the 1992–1993 Somalia conflict, the 1990s ‘Yugoslavia’ conflict, and the 2001 Afghanistan War. But not everything was perfect. Under pressure from the anti-war movement, Canada refused to join in the 2003 Iraq war.
Disputes also emerged over Arctic waterways, with Canada claiming it as its sovereign territory, while the US argued it was international waters. In 2005, an American submarine passed through the Canadian Arctic unannounced, violating the 1988 Arctic Cooperation Agreement.
With the War in Iraq and the Great Recession, American global dominance declined. The share of Canada’s trade done with the US went from 75 percent in 2000 to 62 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, trade with China, Canada’s second-largest trading partner, grew from one percent to eight percent over the same period. Although nearly all of Canada’s oil is exported to the US, a recent pipeline expansion to the west coast has seen oil exports to China skyrocket.
Resource hunger and geopolitical paranoia
Amid Ottawa's partial divergence on foreign policy and growing economic relationship with Beijing, Trump has threatened to annex Canada. Many call it a bluff to get a better trade deal. But with the brazen attack on Venezuela and plans being drafted to seize Greenland, it is a serious possibility.
In 2014, Diane Francis, editor-at-large of the National Post, argued before the Canada Institute on the need for a merger with the US. According to Francis, this is necessary to counter rising superpowers like China and Russia and to advance resource development.
Canada, after all, is the second-largest producer of uranium, the fourth-largest producer of diamonds, the fourth-largest producer of gold, the fourth-largest producer of oil, and has the fourth-largest oil reserves.
It also dominates lesser-known minerals, including being the number one producer of potash (used as fertilizer) and the fourth-largest producer of indium (used in computer and phone screens and solar cells).
These resources are both essential and highly profitable to the US. Canada is the number one supplier of oil, gas, and uranium to the US. Even if Washington were to transition to green energy, Canada has many important resources, such as lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, and cobalt – minerals that are also critical to military technology.
It is these resources that have already motivated the Trump administration to invade Venezuela and try to annex Greenland. As former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau observed, “They’re very aware of our resources, of what we have, and they very much want to be able to benefit from those. But Mr. Trump has it in mind that one of the easiest ways of doing that is absorbing our country.”
Oil is especially critical for controlling, since its trade in US dollars props up the currency’s value. Undermining this is China’s goal of doing all oil trade using the renminbi – hence, the major threat growing China–Canada relations pose to America.
Canada is also critical for national security, especially in the Arctic. During the Cold War, the main concern was alerting about a Soviet attack. As the Arctic warms, shorter shipping routes are opening for trade from East Asia to Europe and the East Coast, and from Europe to the West Coast. Controlling these routes is essential for the US to protect its own trade and counter Russia (which controls the greatest area of the Arctic Circle) and China, whose presence is growing.
Toward the 51st State
As the second-largest country in the world, Canada would be extremely difficult to annex. Trump has three options: economic pressure, divide-and-conquer, and military force.
The first, economic pressure, is already being imposed through tariffs. Initially set at 25 percent, they were then raised to 35 percent and 50 percent on steel and aluminum. While nearly all countries were subject to this, Canada was significantly affected, given its high reliance on trade with the US.
In the second quarter of 2025, Canada’s economy contracted, and unemployment in September 2025 reached 7.1 percent, the highest since the pandemic. Rather than a trade negotiation tactic, some believe it is a deliberate act of economic sabotage, meant to weaken Canada so that it could be enticed to join the US. But this failed. Only 10 to 22 percent of Canadians are open to considering joining the States. While Canada gave in to some of Trump’s demands, such as increased border militarization, anti-American sentiment has increased.
For the first time ever, more Canadians see the US as an enemy or potential threat than China. Travel, essential for fostering relations between the countries, plummeted, with Canadians taking 33 percent fewer road trips to America in 2025 compared to 2024.
Most concerning for America was the Canadian government’s response to seek alternative trade partners. In September 2025, the Canada–Mexico Action Plan was launched to deepen trade between the two countries. Surprisingly, Canada also reached out to both China and India, both of which it had rocky relations with in recent years.
Canada–India relations soured in 2023 when the latter was accused of assassinating a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil. But in November 2025, the two countries agreed to launch a trade deal, which Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says could double trade.
Ottawa’s relations with Beijing deteriorated after the extradition of business executive Meng Wanzhou to the US and China’s arrest of a Canadian spy in 2018, but have warmed amid shared animosity against Washington.
At the time of writing, Carney is set to be the first Canadian prime minister to visit China in eight years, in the hopes of diversifying trade. Any more economic attacks from Trump against Canada risk further diversifying trade away from the US.
Divide and conquer, or unify the north?
The second option is fragmentation. Canada has separatist movements in Quebec (the second most populated province, where one quarter of the population lives) and Alberta, which produces 84 percent of Canada’s oil.
Trump could support Quebec independence, but this is unlikely given the province’s left-leaning politics. Alberta, with its oil and conservative politics, would be the prime target. Its separatist movement is new, stemming from frustration with 11 years of liberal prime ministers. The province is set to have a referendum this year or next.
Most Canadians still view Alberta separatism as unlikely to succeed, but engagement is high, and the movement is far from fringe. Over half of Albertans are closely following talk of a referendum – signaling that secessionist sentiment is more mainstream than many outside the province assume.
One poll found only 18 percent of Albertans support independence, but others have found as high as 45 percent, with most polls showing support hovering around one-third. Referendums also usually boost excitement around separation. Like Alberta, support for Scottish independence was between a quarter and a third of the population, but rose in the lead-up to the 2014 referendum, with 45 percent voting in favor.
Alberta separatists have already met with Trump officials in both Washington, D.C., and Mar-a-Lago, and many separatist X accounts were found to be based in the US. With its large media apparatus, America could easily launch an online campaign to sway opinion.
The problem is that Trump's threats to annex the country might have the opposite effect. A recent poll found the share of people who are proud to be Canadian has increased since Trump assumed office. Rather than fragment Canada, the US president might unite the country.
The military scenario
Then there is the most extreme option: military invasion. On paper, it looks plausible. Canada has just over 70,000 active troops and 74 tanks. The US boasts 1.3 million personnel and over 4,600 tanks. Two-thirds of Canada’s population lives within 100 kilometers of the US border – making a swift strike feasible. Occupying this area would effectively end Canadian sovereignty. Canada also relies heavily on US military hardware, which could be digitally sabotaged.
And who would come to the rescue? Canada has no other neighbors, other than Greenland (Denmark), which has only 56,000 people. Although Europe is closely allied with Canada, involving France and the UK could risk escalating tensions with the US. It would also mean Europe redeploying its military assets away from the Russian front. Theoretically, the inclusion of France and the UK could bring with it the risk of nuclear war.
Combined, a hypothetical EU army would have personnel roughly the same size as America’s and a military budget half the size of the US, and would therefore be underequipped. Before arriving in Canada, a European army would have to cross the Atlantic Ocean. And with 38 American bases and more than 100,000 personnel stationed in Europe, the war would be at home too.
Why annexation remains unlikely – for now
Despite the threats, no military buildup is visible. Canada remains a key US ally. A hostile takeover would provoke enormous backlash, possibly on par with the Vietnam War. More critically, it could collapse the US dollar. An invasion of Canada would signal that no country is safe, prompting global sell-offs of US bonds and retaliatory sanctions.
Still, this is not just Trump’s fantasy. It represents a broader shift in US strategy. With global dominance slipping, Washington is focusing on hemispheric consolidation. That means subordinating even its closest allies.
Canadians should be under no illusion. Their country is not immune to empire. As the struggle for the Arctic and global resources intensifies, Canada finds itself on the frontlines – not of friendship, but of conquest.
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