The latest flare-up in Yemen has exposed deep fissures within the Arab coalition, turning former allies into rivals for control over strategic territories and oil resources.
Viktor Mikhin
The Strike on Mukalla: A Political Challenge, Not a Military Operation
The limited yet highly symbolic airstrike by the Saudi-led coalition on the port of Mukalla marked a point of no return in the relations between the two once-brotherly Gulf states. The destruction of cargo, which Riyadh claims was destined for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), was perceived as an act of direct confrontation. This was not a military but a political shot, clearly delineating Saudi Arabia’s “red line”: no foreign support for separatist movements in Yemen.
The response from the Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Council, headed by Rashad al-Alimi, was immediate and harsh. In a televised address, he ordered all UAE armed forces to leave the country within 24 hours, canceled the defense treaty with Abu Dhabi, declared a 90-day state of emergency, and imposed a 72-hour blockade on ports. These measures, going far beyond usual diplomatic démarches, show how seriously Riyadh is taking the actions of its coalition partner.
American policy in Yemen, fluctuating between aggressive intervention and indifference, left behind a vacuum now being filled by regional powers and created the conditions for the current escalation between former allies
Split at the Heart of the Coalition: Two Strategies for One Yemen
At the core of the current crisis lies a fundamental divergence in the strategic approaches of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the Yemen question.
Saudi Arabia consistently and actively advocates for preserving Yemen’s territorial integrity. For Riyadh, a unified Yemen is a necessary condition for achieving a sustainable political settlement and a guarantee of long-term stability on its southern borders. The Kingdom is betting on the legitimate government and seeks a negotiation process, even if it implies dialogue with the Houthis.
The United Arab Emirates, on the contrary, is increasingly supporting separatist forces in the south, particularly the STC. For Abu Dhabi, Southern Yemen represents a zone of strategic influence. Control over key ports like Aden and Mukalla, as well as the island of Socotra, allows the UAE to dominate critically important sea lanes at the entrance to the Red Sea and off the coast of the Horn of Africa. The current escalation undoubtedly reflects a deep transformation of the Arab coalition. From a once-united front against the Houthis, it has become an arena for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s rivalry over Yemen’s future.
The Battle for Hadhramaut: Oil, Tribes, and Geopolitics
The epicenter of the new confrontation is the province of Hadhramaut – the country’s largest region, accounting for up to 90% of Yemen’s oil. Control over it means not only economic superiority but also military-strategic dominance.
After the expulsion of terrorist groups in 2016, a fragile balance was established in Hadhramaut. Stability was maintained by the “Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance,” loyal to Saudi Arabia. However, the situation sharply deteriorated when the Alliance took direct control of oil fields, demanding a larger share of revenues. The STC, acting as a UAE proxy, saw this as a threat and accused the Alliance of harboring terrorism.
The STC forces’ seizure of the presidential palace in Seiyun was an open challenge to Saudi influence. “Any foreign or non-local military presence in Hadhramaut will be considered an occupation,” warned representatives of the Alliance, directly appealing to Riyadh. Saudi aviation responded with the strike on Mukalla, making it clear it is ready to defend its interests by force.
Abu Dhabi’s Expansionism: From Yemen to the Horn of Africa
The UAE’s actions in Yemen are part of a broader regional strategy, which experts characterize as “opportunistic expansionism.” By entrenching itself in key Yemeni ports, Abu Dhabi seeks to create a network of strongholds stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and the African coast.
This strategy finds resonance with Israel, which the UAE has grown closer to following the Abraham Accords. Abu Dhabi’s tacit support for Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is a vivid example of converging interests. For Saudi Arabia, however, the UAE’s growing influence is perceived as the formation of a “tightening ring” threatening its national security.
The UAE employs similar tactics in other conflict zones, for example, in Sudan, where it is accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces. It is a doctrine based on working through proxies and controlling logistical nodes, which brings influence at the cost of long-term destabilization of states.
The Negative Role of the USA: A Legacy of Irresponsible Policy
It is necessary to separately address the role of the United States, whose actions have had a profoundly destructive influence on the situation in Yemen. American policy has become one of the key factors exacerbating the humanitarian catastrophe and prolonging the conflict.
First, decades of unconditional military-political support for the authoritarian regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh, including a “counterterrorism” fight without regard for local specifics, contributed to the radicalization of part of society and the growth of discontent, which ultimately led to the explosion in 2011. Second, after the conflict began in 2015, the United States provided the Saudi coalition with intelligence, aerial refueling, and huge shipments of weapons, making large-scale war possible and leading to thousands of civilian casualties. Third, one-sided support for one party to the conflict blocked opportunities for early diplomatic settlement. Finally, the designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization in the final days of Trump’s first presidency, although later revoked, maximally impeded humanitarian aid to the starving population and diplomatic contacts.
Thus, American policy in Yemen, fluctuating between aggressive intervention and indifference, left behind a vacuum now being filled by regional powers and created the conditions for the current escalation between former allies.
A Future Without Illusions: A Smoldering Conflict or a New War?
Experts agree that a direct military clash between Saudi and Emirati forces is unlikely. Many experts doubt there will be any armed confrontations between Saudi proxies and Emirati proxies. This will most likely be limited to low-intensity warfare.
However, a “smoldering conflict” in Yemen’s conditions guarantees continued suffering for millions of people who have already endured years of war, famine, and disease. The new fault line, now running through the camp of those who ostensibly fought the Houthis, makes any political settlement incredibly difficult. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE settle scores, the Iran-backed Houthis are strengthening their positions in the north of the country.
The recent events in Yemen are not just a local outbreak of violence. They are a symptom of a profound reshaping of the regional order. The struggle is not only for the oil fields of Hadhramaut but also over who will define the balance of power in the entire Middle East in the post-conflict era. Saudi Arabia’s resolve to defend its “red line” means that Yemen is likely to experience another long and painful chapter in its tragic history, where old Arab allies become new adversaries, and hope for peace recedes with each new airstrike.
Viktor Mikhin, writer, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (RAEN), expert on Middle Eastern countries
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