The battle for control of West Asia’s skies has moved from contingency to reality. Tehran and Washington have activated the final pieces of their war architecture, fully weaponizing the airspace.
The Cradle
A deeper observer finds themselves before a scene in which the construction of one of the most complex combat architectures of the modern era is being completed, where the American “air bridge” surging from the west meets the Iranian “air shield,” which has just placed its final piece in the north and center.
1. “The Eagle’s Fangs” and the wager of silent penetration
The most prominent qualitative development is embodied in the arrival of F-15E Strike Eagle fighters equipped with the EPAWSS system (Active and Passive Survivability System).
Technically, this system turns the aircraft into an “electronic ghost” capable of blinding the Russian S-300 systems relied upon by Tehran.
This “electronic scissors” was specifically designed to cut the threads of the air defense network that Iran has recently completed weaving over Karaj and Tabriz, granting US Central Command the ability to carry out a “surgical strike” deep inside, without prior detection.
2. “The final piece”: Sealing the Iranian gaps
On the other side, Tehran recognizes the scale of the threat. Accordingly, its recent moves, in line with aviation navigation notices (NOTAMs), came to draw a geostrategic “blocking wall.”
This was achieved by activating the Tabriz front, which closes the “northern gap” to any infiltration from the Caucasus, while the declaration of “free fire” over Nojeh Air Base in Hamedan turned the base into a protective umbrella for the “offensive response capability.”
This base, which hosts Phantom bombers, is considered Iran’s “offensive lung” and has now been fully secured to launch long-range retaliatory strikes.
3. The struggle of the “lungs”: Kerosene versus radar
In the air, the Americans’ “long breath” appears through KC-135R and KC2 Voyager tanker aircraft, which have been heavily spotted over Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
These “artificial lungs” eliminate the time factor and keep fighters in a state of continuous pounce around the clock.
In contrast, Iran responded by implementing a “hair-trigger” state at the capital’s airports, notably Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini, where strict speed and altitude restrictions were imposed with the aim of clearing the sky of any civilian noise.
This measure allows Iranian radars to focus fully on the “stealth targets” coming from beyond the borders.
With the dawn of Thursday, the eighth of the current month, Tehran did not confine itself to securing its external “walls,” but moved into the phase of “sealing the safe depth,” an operational development indicating the military leadership’s readiness for a relatively long total war scenario (Total War).
Through a series of aviation notices monitored by open military sources, the contours of the “last refuge” began to take shape:
• Mashhad and the eastern depth
By activating defenses over the city of Mashhad and Nasir Air Base, Iran secures what can be described as the “alternative capital” and the center of religious and political gravity.
This closure protects the “government continuity plan” and prevents any attempt to decapitate the leadership should the capital be subjected to blinding strikes, thus providing a “strategic rear” extending to the eastern borders.
• Yazd and Kerman: Missile lungs
The inclusion of central cities such as Yazd and Kerman in the air-closure equation was not a symbolic step.
These areas, which host fortified ballistic missile depots deep within the mountains, represent the “strategic stockpile” that will feed the battle in its advanced stages.
Protecting these fortresses ensures the survival of the response capability, even if forward air bases are neutralized.
• Kish radars: Eyes that never blink
In the far south, reinforcing defenses over Kish Island constitutes a fortification of the “advanced radars” that monitor the pulse of the US Fifth Fleet.
The island has come to function as an advanced “watchtower,” granting Tehran crucial minutes of early warning before any attack launched from nearby regional bases arrives.
• The Caspian Sea: The last supply artery
With the activation of air alerts over the areas of Rasht and Bandar Anzali, Iran lays the final brick in its external supply-security plan.
Bandar Anzali Port — the main headquarters of the Northern Fleet — has been turned into an area of intense military activity, effectively activating a “lifeline” with the Russian ally.
This move anticipates a scenario of complete closure of the Persian Gulf outlets and the Strait of Hormuz, making the Caspian Sea the only safe passage for receiving vital military and technical equipment, away from the eyes of Western fleets.
• The radar dam against the “northern envelopment”
Activating early-warning systems over Babolsar and Gorgan constitutes an announcement of the operation of a comprehensive surveillance network in the northern sector.
This step coincides with intelligence reports pointing to the possibility of using the airspace of northern neighboring states, such as Azerbaijan, as rear attack platforms against deep nuclear and military facilities.
By activating long-range surveillance radars at these points, Iran has closed the gap through which dense air defenses deployed in the south and center could otherwise be bypassed.
• Dasht-e Naz Air Base: The post-last alternative
The military activation of the Sari area represents a highly flexible defensive step.
Dasht-e Naz Air Base forms an alternative command-and-control center, naturally protected behind the Alborz mountain range.
Preparing this site to receive aerial and logistical operations in the event that the capital’s airports are disabled grants the military leadership decisive “operational depth” in wars of attrition.
4. “McFaul” and the “Warthog”: Tightening the siege
While F-15E fighters carry out deep missions, A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft (“the Warthog”) secure ground bases against suicide drones.
To complete the “deterrence pincer,” the guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul has entered the Fifth Fleet’s theater of operations.
Thanks to the advanced Aegis system, McFaul has become a maritime blocking wall watching Hamedan’s missiles and bombers, creating a terrifying balance between land-based firepower and maritime dominance.
Technical depth analysis: The struggle of “spectra” over the strategic triangle
In this confrontation, the conflict is no longer confined to aircraft and missiles, but is evolving into a silent clash between frequencies and algorithms.
While Tehran has tightened its “electronic locks” over the Tabriz refinery and Karaj facilities through the Bavar-373 and S-300PMU2 systems, Washington has entered the equation with a technical “key” known as EPAWSS.
1. Deception engineering versus detection radars
The EPAWSS system, installed on F-15E fighters, operates as a “maestro” managing the electromagnetic spectrum.
It does not rely solely on traditional jamming, but captures Iranian radar waves and retransmits them “distorted” or “delayed” via DRFM technology.
This digital manipulation creates “phantom targets” and electronic mirages on air defense screens in Tabriz, driving ground systems to fire missiles into empty space, depleting their strategic stockpiles while simultaneously exposing their fortified positions.
2. Silent sensing and “illuminated targets”
While Iranian systems in Hamedan rely on “active tracking,” which requires broadcasting strong radar pulses to detect threats, the “fangs” of the US Air Force bet on “passive sensing.”
This mode allows American fighters to “hear the breathing” of Iranian radars and pinpoint their locations with precision, without emitting a single signal that reveals their presence.
According to previous aerial intelligence tracking and exercise assessments, merely activating Nojeh Base’s radars to enter “free fire” mode instantly turns it into an “illuminated target” on the screens of American aircraft, as well as on the systems of the destroyer USS McFaul deployed with the Fifth Fleet.
3. Clash of two logics: Geographic density versus digital sovereignty
Iran’s current wager is based on “density,” meaning the construction of an overlapping radar network within the (Tabriz–Hamedan–Tehran) triangle.
Under this logic, if the American system succeeds in blinding one radar, another takes over tracking the target from a different angle.
In contrast, US Central Command (CENTCOM) bets on the “digital sovereignty” provided by the EPAWSS system, which grants the aircraft comprehensive 360-degree protection, turning the operational sky into an open laboratory for sixth-generation warfare.
Situation assessment: The final distribution of pawns
By analyzing the flight paths of strategic C-17 transport aircraft observed unloading their cargo at Azraq Base in Jordan and Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the outlines of the “centers of gravity” become clear:
• Jordan and Cyprus: forward launch platforms for electronic penetration operations, as well as combat search and rescue (CSAR) missions.
• Hamedan and Tabriz: Iranian deterrence fortresses and the potential launch points for any response intended to be equal in force.
Preliminary conclusion
The synchronization between the arrival of the destroyer McFaul in the theater by sea, the intensification of US aerial refueling flights, and the sealing of Iranian air gaps in Tabriz and Hamedan reinforces a single hypothesis:
the era of maneuvers has ended, and the era of full “combat loading” has begun.
“The limbo of waiting” and scenarios of the final eruption
This technical buildup filling the region’s skies and the edges of its seas indicates that we have moved beyond the stage of “psychological deterrence” and settled into a zone of “rough contact.”
As EPAWSS tunes its frequencies to the radar waves over Tabriz and the destroyer McFaul prepares to translate satellite data into intercept trajectories, the region appears suspended in a temporal “limbo,” awaiting a spark that politics can no longer prevent from igniting.
Across this landscape, two scenarios — and no third — emerge to define the coming hours or days:
• First: The “silent surgical engagement”
In which Washington attempts to test the “locks” Tehran has placed in the “evening file” through limited electronic penetrations measuring the response speed of new radars in Karaj and Hamedan.
This test, however, could quickly slide into open confrontation if Tehran decides that “cleansing the sky” over its capital admits no ambiguity.
• Second: The “sustained balance of terror”
In this scenario, opposing sides realize that the cost of breaching the “final piece” of Iran’s defense system is prohibitive, and that the presence of the Fifth Fleet at full readiness with McFaul renders any offensive gamble a strategic suicide.
Here, the sky will “not sleep” for long weeks, in a war of attrition targeting nerves, batteries, and frequencies.
As West Asia has grown accustomed to awaiting “digital data” from defense ministries in most of its previous wars, the air deployment map — stretching from Akrotiri to Nojeh, and from the Suez Canal to the Strait of Hormuz — confirms that the stage is complete, and that the curtain may rise at any moment on a new regional reality, dragging behind it the blaze of missiles that have come to see one another beyond the horizon.
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