Amidst the emergence of an increasingly volatile and chaotic world order, Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia are vying for a new trilateral alliance.
Taut Bataut
The Role of Global Powers Amidst Chaos
All three nations in this possible trilateral alliance are constrained by divergent interests, which makes their partnerships and alliances unnatural
The increasing militarization of Middle Eastern politics also impacted the Iran-backed proxy groups throughout the region, especially in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Amidst this dynamic geopolitical situation, the role of global powers is contingent on their regional and global interests and ambitions. The United States, as a superpower, has further escalated the crises through its unprecedented military, diplomatic, and financial support to Israel to materialize its regional aspirations rather than striving for peace in the region. On the other hand, China is pursuing a policy of non-intervention and peaceful rise. Thus, its prime focus is on managing its economic ambitions rather than becoming a stakeholder in the volatile and chaotic Middle East. Russia, on its part, is constrained by its conflict with Ukraine, which makes it impossible for the country to play a direct role in establishing peace in the region. This makes the United States the sole country able to shape its security agenda and influence the future prospects of the Middle Eastern region.
Amidst all this security situation in the Middle East, dependence on a sole great power is a risky business. Israel’s attack on Qatar reasserted the fact that the United States is an unreliable ally and that relying on a single global or regional power could prove detrimental. History also shows that higher independence of a state leads to greater autonomy in its foreign affairs. Saudi Arabia’s defense deal with Pakistan, as well as the current discussions on the formulation of a trilateral defense pact among Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, are also a result of regional and global volatility. This trilateral defense agreement and a potential security alliance between the three states seem to be a reaction to the contemporary unpredictability in the era of diminishing international alliance assurance. The KSA seeks to expand its security alliances; Turkey seeks to enhance its role in the Middle Eastern region; and Pakistan wants to increase its diplomatic footprint in the Middle East and diversify its relations with different regional states to achieve its strategic engagement.
The Limits of a Potential Trilateral Alliance
All three nations in this possible trilateral alliance are constrained by divergent interests, which makes their partnerships and alliances unnatural. For the KSA, its prime priority is containing Iran, enhancing the security of its regime in the country, and the successful implementation of its Vision 2030, along with its premier Neom City project. On the other hand, Turkey’s prime focus is on Kurdish militancy, Greece, and the consequential impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s prime concern is containing India. Moreover, Islamabad is also focused on countering terrorist organizations operating from Afghan soil. Hence, all three states have divergent national security priorities.
Due to these divergent interests, this potential trilateral alliance could make little to no change in the Middle Eastern region. This is because of two key reasons: first, the prime reason for the prolonged Middle Eastern volatility is the unwavering US support for Israel. The Middle Eastern conflicts are mostly localized and have never been able to impact international relations. Moreover, no regional power or nation seeks an all-out war with any great power, as is visible by Iran’s quick ceasefire with the United States and Israel after a 12-day war. Iran has also demonstrated its interest in diplomatic engagement with the US to resolve bilateral issues. Therefore, it is impossible for this potential trilateral alliance to positively impact the Middle Eastern security and political landscape.
Secondly, the three countries have different capabilities and expertise to offer to each other. Saudi Arabia can offer the two countries its financial support and can provide them with passage to the strategic locations in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Moreover, Pakistan and Turkey could leverage KSA’s diplomatic influence in the Muslim world. Pakistan can offer its combat-hardened and tested military and an air force that has been proven on the battlefield. Turkey could offer its expertise in the defense industry. However, through these capabilities, this potential trilateral bloc would only be able to establish a soft security framework, not a novel regional power alliance. Therefore, no regional power or bloc could challenge the US or Israel’s policies in the Middle East, rendering this alliance mostly ineffective.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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