Iranian Noose Around Donald Trump’s Neck

Viktor Mikhin

A number of American media outlets have stated that U.S. President Donald Trump’s standing is not as good as it could be at present. The latest opinion polls conducted in the United States show that his approval rating reached its lowest levels, and that he could be beaten by any of the four Democratic presidential candidates during the upcoming election in a year’s time. There is an opinion that analyses and plans for formulating a foreign policy were in many cases inadequate, which has caused greater concern among Republicans about the presidential election next year.

Donald Trump started his presidency with a visit to Saudi Arabia, where he signed contracts worth as much as $100 billion, and made Saudis promise to buy American arms for another $300 billion. Then, however, U.S. President’s policies failed on a number of occasions on the global arena.

Washington’s plans to crush the Russian economy with the aid of sanctions did not bear fruit, and, as a result, the whole world is currently laughing at them. Even Donald Trump himself has fully grasped the failure of such a policy and suggested inviting Russia back into the G7, which would transform this elite summit into a G8.

In addition, nothing worked with regards to China either although Donald Trump initiated a trade and economic war against this nation. Any financial gains apparently made by the United States were cancelled out by China’s increased tariffs on American goods.

And what of the DPRK, a country that the American President threatened to wipe off the face of the Earth? Currently, Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, is suddenly regarded as (based on the statements made by Donald Trump himself) a great leader who one could do business with.

Very little has gone right for Donald Trump with respect to the Islamic Republic of Iran after the United States pointedly and inexplicably withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement on Iran’s nuclear program while at the same time demanding (purely for sport) that Tehran fulfill all the obligations in accordance with this agreement. It is worth reminding our readers that the JCPOA delicately balances interests, obligations and compromises of many nations, which is why it cannot be subdivided into separate sections (for instance, with one binding and another nonbinding part).

Undoubtedly, Donald Trump is a fortunate business man, however, this is clearly not enough to run an enormous nation. The U.S. President did not even express any interest in whether or not sanctions (first imposed against Iran 40 years ago in 1979), which he places great hopes on, had borne any fruit before. At the time the USA first announced sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the world power seized all of Iran’s assets, including bank deposits, gold and other property in the amount of $12 billion.  In 1987, U.S. President Ronald Reagan imposed new sanctions against Iran. However, when they failed to yield desirable results in Washington’s eyes, in 1995, the sanctions were once again expanded to include foreign companies that collaborated with Iran.  After the United States withdrew from the agreement on the nuclear program on 8 May 2018, the unilateral sanctions against Iran yet again tightened.

Aside from unilateral, unlawful and inhumane sanctions the USA imposed against the Islamic Republic of Iran, Washington has pressured other world nations to put an embargo on Iranian exports. This in itself is a clear example of economic terrorism against the people of Iran.

However, despite the harsh sanctions, over this entire period, Iran has achieved a lot of success in all the spheres, including the military one (i.e. by creating its own weapons on par with their American counterparts).

It would be interesting to know how Washington intends to engage with Iran, with its history and diplomatic endeavors spanning thousands of years, and which was a Great Empire at the time when inhabitants of America walked around wearing animal hides. Does Donald Trump really think that all he needs to do is shake his finger at Iran and impose yet another set of barbaric sanctions against this nation for Iranians to simply cave?

It is quite obvious that Donald Trump is trying to use all the means at his disposal to make Tehran breach the non-proliferation treaty, and thereby undermine its collaboration with the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency) in order to then have the motive to intervene by military means (something that is condemned in the strongest of terms by the international community and that will threaten the stability of the entire region). Many career diplomats have pointed out the resilience of their Iranian counterparts, and their strict adherence to international laws that govern the sphere of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Russian diplomats, just as many foreign experts and professionals, believe that Iran’s rational behavior would be duly appreciated by all the other signatories of the agreement.

President of Iran Hassan Rouhani clearly expressed his opinion on the possibility of renewing negotiations with Washington. Having highlighted that Iran’s strategy is grounded in resistance from within and effective diplomacy, Hassan Rouhani stated that Tehran had never aimed to engage in bilateral negotiations with the USA. He said that numerous proposals to this effect had been made, but Iran had thus far rejected them. Hassan Rouhani affirmed that without resistance from within and effective diplomacy Iran’s path would be hard.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran, stated that Iran would “further lower its commitments under the deal” if Europeans failed to protect Iran’s economy from barbaric sanctions imposed on the nation by the United States after the unceremonious withdrawal from the agreement by the Trump administration. After all, in accordance with the JCPOA, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of financial and economic sanctions. The Iranian Minister stated “It is meaningless to continue unilateral commitments to the deal if we don’t enjoy its benefits as promised by the deal’s European parties”. He also ruled out the possibility of renegotiating the JCPOA, and noted that it was perfectly clear for Tehran that it would be impossible to open a Pandora’s box and then close it once again.

With the upcoming presidential election drawing near, Donald Trump really needs to at least achieve some success with regards to Iran. However, it is entirely up to Tehran to act at this point, thanks to Mohammad Javad Zarif’s “iron hand in a velvet glove”. And in the meantime, Iran’s Foreign Affairs Minister continues to give Donald Trump, the leader of the most powerful nation in the world, master classes in diplomacy.

It would be interesting to see what Donald Trump, who appears to have only the threat of force (which, by the way, the USA currently does not have and is unlikely to have in the future) left in his arsenal, does next with regards to Iran. But the election continues to draw near and something needs to be done. And even now, the Iranian noose around Donald Trump’s neck continues to tighten.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

USA – Iran: Gunboat Diplomacy Still Prevails

Again and again, U.S. politicians’ inhuman cries of fear and terror are emanating from the grim shores of the Potomac River. This time around, it was U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and John R. Bolton, the National Security Advisor to the American President, who launched into a “duet”.  The two “great diplomats” informed the rest of the world, in confidence, that they suspected Iran of preparing for an escalation in tensions in the Persian Gulf region.  Due to trepidation, Mike Pompeo said with difficulty “We have continued to see activity that leads us to believe that there’s escalation that may be taking place, and so we’re taking all the appropriate actions, both from a security perspective as well as our ability to make sure the president has a wide range of options in the event that something should actually take place”. In Russia, there is an apt saying “If you appear to be seeing things, make the sign of the cross”.

So what are their supporting arguments? According to some sources at a virtually unknown tabloid, the Axios news portal, Israeli intelligence services informed their U.S. counterparts that Tehran supposedly intended to harm Washington’s interests in the Persian Gulf region. I am sure you are aware that in the current climate, Tel Aviv may share all kinds of information with the rest of the world in order to turn not only the United States but the entire West against Iran. After all, the “powerful” Israeli Prime Minister, “Bibi” Netanyahu, who sees himself if not as God himself, then at least as Secretary-General of the U.N, did not reiterate the following warning in vain “Israel will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons”. However, both the Prime Minister and the United States choose not to talk about the fact that Israel has been in possession of nuclear weaponry and means of transporting it for many years now. This, incidentally, contravenes international laws, and, therefore, threatens peace and stability in the Middle East and nudges the region closer to war.

John Bolton’s remarks about Tehran were aggressive and threatening. In his zeal for war, he coarsely announced that, as a warning to the government of Iran, the United States had sent a naval forces unit, headed by Abraham Lincoln (a rusty aircraft carrier), and a strategic bombing unit to the Middle East. Brian Hook, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran, has completely lost it, just as, back in the day, James Forrestal had, when he purportedly screamed “The Russians are coming. The Russians are coming. They’re right around. I’ve seen Russian soldiers,” as he committed suicide by jumping out of a window. Mr Hook decided to earn his recognition as a “tough and resilient warrior” by peremptorily stating that the United States of America was prepared, if necessary, to use force against Iran in retaliation for a possible attack on U.S. armed forces or their allies in the Middle East. All this U.S. politician needs to do in order to gain as much notoriety as James Forrestal is to shout “Iranians are coming. I have seen them,” and to leap out of the window.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran, made a fairly direct statement in an interview with the TV channel Fox News and said that the National Security Advisor to the U.S. President, John Bolton, as well as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were drawing the United States into a conflict against Iran.  On 22 April, the U.S. presidential administration announced that it would not extend sanction exemptions to countries purchasing oil from Iran. The White House expects that owing to this decision exports of Iranian oil will fall to zero. It is fairly obvious that the Donald Trump administration is striving to deprive Iran of any benefits of staying committed to the nuclear deal by imposing new sanctions on this nation.

All these factors definitively point to the culprit who is causing tensions and threatening the Pentagon in this very important and volatile region of the Persian Gulf, located thousands of kilometers away from the United States. But is this culprit Iran? No, certainly not.

It is the current Donald Trump administration and its bigwigs, who recently, it seems, found out about the existence of gunboat diplomacy and decided to employ it, just as in the past. But those distant times are gone for good. And if we were to point our fingers at the person who has brought the world to the brink of yet another catastrophe and war, the culprit would be the current U.S. President Donald Trump, who, for reasons unknown, a year earlier, withdrew from the nuclear deal and imposed new sanctions on not only Tehran but also on any nations that conduct any business with Iran. However, during an entire year, monitors from the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency), an international organization under the U.S. thumb, conducted thorough inspections of Iran on more than one occasion and did not report any violations.

So why did the American President violate international laws with such impunity and withdraw from the international nuclear deal with Iran unilaterally? The key to this puzzle is fairly simple. Donald Trump decided to show the entire global community that he was the undisputed master of the world and that he could do whatever he deems fit whenever he wanted to.

But have these actions been in the interests of the United States or, at that, of any other nations in the world? Of course not. In an article in Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard University, focused on unprincipled policies followed by the current U.S. President, and predicted that they would fail soon. To date, Americans are already having trouble reaching a consensus on a number of international issues, including ones concerning Iran. According to the professor, Donald Trump’s actions have merely prompted opponents of the United States to unite together and have pushed its allies away.

As numerous factors illustrate, the Trump administration supports a one-sided approach to foreign policy issues. For instance, the U.S. President has threatened to start a trade war with Europe, has suggested withdrawing from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and has made unrealistic and categorical demands on Iran, the DPRK and Venezuela, which have gone unmet so far, contrary to expectations.  As a result of such actions, even weak nations, fearing betrayal, do not wish to be in the sphere of U.S. influence, which makes it difficult for America to find allies and establish international coalitions. At the same time, Washington’s egotistical policies have brought countries such as Russia and China closer together so that they can now oppose the United States.

Incidentally, earlier there were reports that European nations felt distrust towards the USA from a financial perspective. Several NATO allies of the United States made a decision, at the same time, to move their gold from American vaults.  Hence, the fact that the U.S. has lost its ability to influence world affairs may signal a complete fiasco for this nation in the future.

Washington’s poorly thought through but fairly aggressive policies have not yielded any benefits for Washington with respect to Iran. Moreover, on 8 May, the date that marks a one-year anniversary of U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran announced that it would no longer comply with several clauses of this agreement, including the ones concerning stocks of enriched uranium and heavy water. Tehran stated that it did not feel obligated to honor commitments in relation to those clauses. Iran indicated that the measures taken were in response to U.S. violations of the nuclear deal, the imposition by Washington of sanctions against Tehran, and the inability of the remaining parties to the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), i.e. Germany, France, Great Britain, China and Russia, to resolve the issues that have arisen to Iran’s satisfaction. As a result, Iran gave the previously mentioned countries 60 days to try and safeguard Iran’s interests. In turn, it has promised to start honoring the commitments, which it has temporarily reneged on, again within the same period if these nations manage to find a solution to the problems resulting from U.S. actions.

The U.S. presidential elections are also drawing near, and Donald Trump needs only successful feats, first and foremost, in relation to Iran in order to get re-elected. In other words, the American President should make haste and consolidate his position prior to the election in order to win. In turn, the Iranian leadership has noted that Tehran is in no hurry, as its people have lived under pressure from U.S. sanctions for 40 years and will surely be able to survive another 40 years in these conditions. The U.S. administration needs to fully understand that Iran is not a country that will happily surrender to be at the mercy of the victor. Hence, the United States ought to put some thought into developing the right policy to negotiate with Iran.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.