For children’s sake, let there be peace in Yemen?

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the United States will start a war on Iran following last Saturday’s attack on two Saudi oil installations in Abqaiq and Khurais. The strikes, seen as the most devastating of a series of recent attacks, sent shockwaves across the world oil markets, as they knocked out more than fifty percent of the world’s top exporter’s crude output or five percent of the global oil supply. 

If the US and the Saudis could afford to start a war with Iran, they could have done it long ago.  If past tense situations were any indication of a behavioural pattern, there is enough reason to believe that this time, too, the developments, however grave they are, will not lead to a war against Iran.

Take for instance the tense situation in June this year. Despite strong predictions that the US would not allow Iran to go unpunished for downing a US spy drone, President Donald Trump chickened out at the last minute and abruptly called off preparations for an attack.  Then there were incidents involving oil tankers in recent months. Two tankers came under attack in the Gulf while one was seized by the Iranians weeks after a British warship seized an Iranian tanker.  Yet these highly inflammable incidents did not lead to a war with Iran.
The fear of the consequences or worries about their impact on the US interests in the region and the likelihood of world oil prices skyrocketing, bringing in its wake a global economic downturn at a time when US President Donald Trump is facing reelection, probably de-escalated the US war drive. 

It should also be recalled that during the US’ standoff with Iran over the Islamic republic’s nuclear power programme, Saudi Arabia and Israel kept prodding the US to launch an attack on Iran. But the US did not attack Iran. President George W Bush and even President Barack Obama would only say that all options were on the table.

In 2001, Iran, together with Iraq and North Korea, was one of the three countries of President Bush’s Axis of Evil.  Iraq was attacked and invaded, but not Iran. 

This is because, in US assessments, Iran is not like Iraq.  Iran has the ability to hit the US and its regional allies where it hurts, although it is only an average military power when compared to the US or even Saudi Arabia which spends US$ 65 billion a year on defence and has signed up to buy US$ 150 billion worth of arms from the US.  Iran has, throughout the decades of US and international sanctions, developed strategic weapons capable of dealing a devastating blow to the enemy. Besides, it has built up a powerful network of regional allies. In Iraq, Iran acts as a patron to Shiite paramilitary groups that joined the government’s war against the Islamic State terror group in 2018.  Numbering around 150,000 militias, these groups are a virtual arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

In Syria, Iran has established a considerable military presence. In Lebanon, it has its proxy army – the Shiite militant group Hizbollah. In Yemen, it is the Houthis who are seen as Iran’s ally. Besides, in several Gulf states, Iran commands the support of the Shiite populations. In Saudi Arabia itself, the Shiites make up 10-15 percent of the population and they see the Sunni monarch as a persecutor and Iran as their likely liberator.

If war breaks out, Iran can mobilise these support bases to its advantage. Through diplomatic channels, Iran, while denying it carried out the attacks on the Saudi oil sites, has conveyed to the US that any military action against it will be met with an immediate response.

The US knows well the capabilities of Iran.  Some 30,000 US troops are stationed in the Gulf region, 5,000 in Iraq and another 14,000 in Afghanistan. They all sit within the striking distance of Iran’s military. 

This is why, even after Saudi Arabia displayed remnants of drones and missiles to back its claim that the attack was “unquestionably sponsored” by Iran, Trump said he was looking for options short of war.

On Wednesday, Trump tweeted he had ordered the US Treasury to “substantially increase sanctions” on Iran.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, meanwhile, rushed to Saudi Arabia where he described the attacks as “an act of war” on the kingdom. 

Meanwhile, some analysts believe that Iran is being blamed because the US defence shield the Saudis have bought and installed had failed to detect and destroy the Houthi drones and missiles. So the arms suppliers to save their skin now say the missile came from the eastern direction indicating Iran or Iranian backed groups in Iraq -- and not from Yemen in the south.

However, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for the attack, which if taken positively sends a powerful peace message that it is time to start talks on ending the war. 
The international community needs to step in to make peace, instead of being a spectator in a bloody war that kills daily scores of children in Yemen, if not by Saudi bombs, but by starvation or diseases such as cholera.  According to a 2018 Save the Children report, an estimated 85,000 children under the age of five had starved to death in the first three years of Yemen’s civil war. 

For children’s sake, let there be peace in Yemen?

But the world community’s indifference is appalling, even after the United Nations has described the situation in Yemen as the worst humanitarian crisis since the Second World War. 

Instead of compelling the parties to the conflict to come to the negotiating table and defuse the worsening crisis, the US, Britain and France sold Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates weapons which were responsible for the deaths of thousands of Yemeni children. A recent UN report warned that these western powers might be complicit in war crimes. 

On Tuesday, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani told the media in Ankara where he met Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin: “The people of Yemen are forced to respond to all the violations and the flood of weapons from the US and Europe toward Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”

The Houthis are willing to talk peace.  They did not start the war. The war, which is into its fourth year, was made in Saudi Arabia, the Saudis did not want to see on their southern border an Iran-friendly Houthi-dominated state.  The war is another human rights violation baggage Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, carries in his person, in addition to the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. 

Saudi Arabia, it is learnt, has requested the Trump administration to facilitate talks with the Houthis.  The Yemen war does not have a popular backing in Saudi Arabia or in the Arab world. Peace offers an opportunity for the Saudi crown prince to re-enter the world stage. For the starving and ailing children’s sake, let there be peace in Yemen. 

Yemen peace talks are destined to fail because of Saudi Arabia and the U.S.

By

 Yousef Mawry

5Pillars

More than 10,000 people have been killed since the war started in 2015.

Any meaningful peace talks in Yemen are destined to fail due to the wider agenda of regional and international powers, namely Saudi Arabia and the United States, writes journalist Yousef Mawry.

The ideal of journalistic objectivity is a mere joke when trying to accurately report about the war in Yemen; an insult to human intelligence and the lives of millions of Yemenis who are suffering in the conflict.

Objective journalism has become the total opposite of what it was intended to be. Most “journalists” who are actively covering the war in Yemen, are merely repeating the opinions of the global elite without taking any moral position to check powers, provide context and perspective and pursue the hard truth.

Not adhering to these core morals and principles when reporting the war in Yemen will result in journalists becoming a mouthpiece for the hegemonic powers and a conduit for deception. This is why the world today remains in a state of dilemma trying to decipher who is right and who is wrong, who is good and who is bad when it comes to the players on the ground in Yemen.

The issue is when reporters are desperately trying to maintain the “objective position” they eventually stop telling the truth in fear of being accused of taking sides and being labeled pro-Houthi or pro-Saudi.

One of the main reasons why the war in Yemen is entering into year five is because of the recycling of misinformation spewed by reporters on the ground and abroad who care more about gaining social media followers then telling the Truth, with a capital T. If your argument is “well no-one really knows what the truth is” then you haven’t done your job as a reporter.

To try and shed some light on the overall conflict, here is my assessment of the balance of power in Yemen and why negotiations will ultimately fail. This is based on my research, analysis, opinion and years of experience reporting in Yemen.

Why peace negotiations in Yemen will fail

Any UN-backed peace deal between Houthis and the government of President Abdrebo Mansour Hadi can and will be used against the Houthi movement to justify military actions against them now or in the future.

The conflict in Yemen is not between the Houthis and the “Yemeni government.” Realistically, there is no Yemeni government. The internationally recognized government led by embattled President Abdrebo Mansour Hadi is nothing more than a Saudi political entity that was put in power to maintain and preserve the interests of Saudi Arabia and the western powers just like the previous government of former ruler Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The Houthi takeover of the Yemeni capital in 2014 was a direct overthrow of the Saudi backed government. Saudi Arabia reacted the same way it would have if a major Saudi city was taken over by a foreign country. There is no new information here. It is common knowledge that President Abdrebo Mansour Hadi is in the pocket of the Saudi royal family. The war started because the Houthi movement removed a Saudi puppet from power not because they overthrew a legitimate Yemeni government. If that was the case, Saudi Arabia wouldn’t have got involved in the first place since it had no horse in the race. There are those who believe that the Houthi takeover of Sana’a is an Iranian takeover which forced Saudi Arabia to get involved militarily, but for now, let’s just stick to what we do know and not dwell in parroting the allegations by Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi-led coalition’s agenda is to eventually get the Houthis to withdraw their forces from Hodeidah, Taiz, and Sana’a so that the coalition forces can then launch a military offensive by land, air and sea to try and pin the Houthis to the north of the country.

The international community recognizes the government of President Mansour Hadi as the legit authority in Yemen. They view the Houthis as an armed rebel movement that took power by force. They also claim the Houthis are an Iranian backed group that takes its orders from Tehran. The United Nations does, however, recognize the Houthis as a political group who have the right to participate in the formation of a new Yemeni government but they should not have their own military that could tip the scale of power.

The fact is, the United Nations and the Western-backed Arab states know very well that true power lies with the group who has the military power. The UN and Saudi Arabia are hell-bent on getting that power transformed to a “friendly government” – one that will maintain Saudi and US interests in Yemen.

The war is heading into its fifth year because the Houthis don’t seem to play by their rules. The Houthis are defying world powers by sticking to their guns and declaring from day one they will not lay their arms down until Saudi Arabia and its allies accept the new reality in Yemen. And that is the reality of an independent Yemeni nation that calls its own shots, make its own deals and trades and doesn’t answer to the US or Saudi Arabia.

You know, kind of like the right of every free nation. But reversing the decades of colonial servitude comes with a hefty price, and the Yemenis seem to be paying for it with their lives as the war continues.

Whoever controls Hodeidah province will have the upper hand in the war

If the Houthis withdraw their forces from Hodeida, it will then be used as another base for coalition forces to advance towards the Yemeni capital and try eliminating the Houthis.

The seaport of Hodediah is the economic lifeline for Yemen. Whoever manages the port controls 90 percent of the country’s food and medical supplies. Its closure could lead to starvation and famine. The “World’s Worst Humanitarian Crisis” in Yemen is a direct result of the imposed blockade on the port by the Royal Family. They did this with the aim of destabilising the economy and starving the people so the Houthis can be blamed for this and eventually lose creditably among the Yemeni population in the north. If the Houthis withdraw their forces from Hodeidah, as stipulated in the new peace agreement, the siege will be lifted. But there is a card being played here. This is an insidious plan by the coalition forces and their allies to 1. Get the Houthis out of Hodeidah, and 2: Alleviate the humanitarian crisis so that when they launch an all-out military operation against the Houthis there will still be a route for humanitarian aid to enter the country. If this happens the coalition forces will have the green light to continue military offensive without having to worry about the international community condemning them for starving millions of Yemenis.

The Houthis will not relinquish control of the Yemeni capital

The Houthis are prepared for war if negotiations fail. With that in mind, should they compromise military power and control over strategic areas if everything seems to be threading towards a fallout in negotiations?  Withdrawing their military forces from Sana’a would be like putting a gun to their head.

The Houthis know that Saudi Arabia and its allies will not hesitate for an instant to remove them from power by force if the opportunity grants itself. No matter what happens during negotiations, the Houthis will not hand over their weapons or withdraw from the Yemeni capital.  In point blank, unless Saudi Arabia is willing to accept losing control of Yemen the war will continue one way or the other.

Iran will support any regime change that is not controlled by Saudi Arabia

Iran supported the revolution against Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2011 and supported the Houthi revolution against President Abdrebo-Mansour Hadi that began in 2014. But this support was political and through media coverage. There is no evidence to prove that Iran has in any way directly supported the Houthis militarily. One frequently hears that Iran is sending weapons and money to the Houthis, but that is physically impossible considering the Saudi-imposed blockade from land, air, and sea. Before the blockade, the coalition government was in power and it would have foiled or seized any armed shipments from Iran to the Houthis.

The only thing Iran could benefit from with a regime change is economic gains. Iran wants to boost its economy and it needs to open trade with countries in the region who don’t take their orders from Saudi Arabia. If a pro-Houthi government is in power you can expect the two countries to trade with one another which could improve the economy for both nations. This would really anger Saudi Arabia.

In the four years of war, the Houthi movement has only gotten stronger and has gained more popularity across the country. Hate them or love them, the new reality in Yemen is the Zaydi group are the most dominant force on the ground and will most likely run the political affairs of the country. They have won the fight on the ground and now the negotiations table is set for a precarious game of chess.

Yousef Mawry is a Yemeni-American journalist who was formerly based in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a. He has nearly 10 years of professional experience and has his own media office where he produces, edits and directs short films and documentaries.

Year Ends But No End In Sight For Sufferings Of Yemeni People

By: Kayhan Int’l 

The year 2018 has come to its end, and tomorrow will be the start of the new Gregorian calendar year, but there is no end in sight for the wars and crises plaguing the world, mainly because of the devilish designs of the US and its clients.

In France the Yellow Jacket Movement continues to rock Paris and other cities, while there is uneasiness in most European countries. 

On the other side of the world, the US seems to be badly trapped in the wave of migration on its southern borders, with the intransigent Donald Trump (grandson of a German migrant), locked in a deadly duel with the Senate to the extent of ‘government shutdown’ because of the rejection of his absurd demand for financing the erection of a long apartheid wall on the frontier with Mexico.

The most catastrophic crisis, however, is the situation of Yemen, a country of 28 million, of whom 22 million are facing famine and starvation, because of the war imposed upon them by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at the behest of the US.

A tentative peace was recently reached in Sweden, following UN mediation between the legal Ansarallah-led government in Sana’a and the militias of the south which are backed by the invaders.

The first step in the peace process calls for demilitarization of the strategic Red Sea port of Hodeidah, a plan to which the Ansarallah have given approval and are already in the process of withdrawing their forces, in order to enable the UN to monitor import-export activities that are vital to the survival of the whole nation of Yemen which is in dire need of urgent food supplies and medicines.

Unfortunately, the Saudi-UAE invaders are yet to fulfill their commitments to the peace process by withdrawing their forces from the vicinity of Hodeidah, stopping military activities, ceasing bombardment of Yemen, and lifting their sea and air blockade of the country, including the opening to international relief aid of the Sana’a airport. 

The result has been continuation of the stalemate with no end to the sufferings of the people of Yemen, while the Saudis and Emiratis, steeped in luxuries and unbothered of the catastrophe facing fellow Arab Muslims in Yemen, use poor mercenaries from as far as Darfur in Africa and Colombia in South America to either die on the battlefields of Yemen or kill the Yemeni people.

It is obvious that the invaders have already lost despite their massive military power. Having failed to reach their sinister goals through war they had schemed to take control of Hodeidah through so-called peace talks, but thanks to the vigilance of the people of Yemen, they have failed yet again.

There was no agreement in Sweden on handing over of Hodeidah to the invaders or their militias of the southern tribesmen. The Ansarallah had only said that the UN will be allowed supervision of activities at the port while the Yemeni armed forces will evacuate the city in order to facilitate such operations.
It means, the moment the Yemeni forces see that the clauses of the peace talks are violated by the southern militias and their Saudi-Emirati overlords, the Ansarallah will not hesitate to rally to the defence of the people of Hodeidah.

Thus, the onus is now on the UN to force the invaders and their proxy militias to respect the peace. If the World Body is really interested in peace, it should not hesitate to declare both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi as aggressors and demand complete end to military operations, in order to allow the people of Yemen to get together to resolve the crisis in a democratic manner, without any outside interference. 

US and the end of Yemen War, Washington’s attempt to save Riyadh’s ruling family

By: Ramin Hossein Abadian

TEHRAN, Nov. 12 (MNA) – Recently, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued his strongest statement yet on the war in Yemen, calling for a cessation of hostilities in Yemen under UN-led negotiations.

James Mattis, US Secretary of Defense in a meeting in Washington also urged all sides involved in the Yemen War to take steps towards peace talks within the next 30 days.
After almost four years of Saudi Arabia led invasion of Yemen, that claimed 30,000 lives of Yemenis, wounded hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, and gave rise to famine and disease, the US has suddenly become concerned and called for peace talks in November in a third country.

Exposure of Khashoggi’s murder and intentional pressure on Saudi Arabia  

The tragic fate of Jamal Khashoggi, a veteran Saudi journalist critical of Al-Saud, broke out a massive wave of international pressure against the Saudi regime, which severely disrupted the image of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia during the past month. Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) and his supporters in the US foreign policy have been in a tough condition ever since.

There is no doubt that, after the murder of Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate Istanbul, and the clear role of MBS in the order of his murder, the cost of support for the Saudi regime and his young prince had gone up for the most beloved American authorities, and the head of them Donald Trump and his son-in-law. The continuous efforts of the Saudi-Zionist lobby in the past year or so to create a modernist, reformist, and moderate figure from MBS have been largely lost with the murder of Khashoggi.

Today, Al-Saud has become a hated regime by public more than ever before. Despite the unwillingness of great powers to call for punishment of the Saudi leaders, the support for the crimes committed by the Saudi-led coalition against Yemen has is getting harder by day.  

It is quite clear to everyone that MBS initiated the ongoing Yemeni on war. Now that all the eyes are on the brutality of the Saudi regime, it is not easy to send weapons to Riyadh, and give them intelligence and logistic support, as well as comprehensive media and political backing, a plan that is to prevent the deterioration of the situation for Riyadh’s rulers.

Coalition failure on the battle field

Since day one of the Yemeni war, plans and predictions of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have failed. After spending tens of billions of dollars of ammunition and killing casualties and losing their own forces and mercenaries, until now, Saudi-led coalition has only been able to gain access to Aden and other small parts of Yemen and failed to reach important Yemeni cities such as Sana'a, Sa’dah, and especially the strategic port of Hudaydah.

A few months of the coalition’s heavy battle to take control of Hudaydah port turned into a long-haul fruitless fight. The port, which accounts for 70% of Yemen’s imports, is very strategic, and the coalition's operation to siege the city and cut off its connection with the rest of the Yemeni soil has gone nowhere.

Obviously, the continuation of this war, apart from the overwhelming costs for Riyadh and its regional allies, is not possible, and while there is no progress on the ground for the Saudis, Americans have the option to end the war to free their Saudi friends and relieve them from the financial  burden and global pressure of the Yemen crisis.

Take away 

It seems that Saudi Arabia has not been able to reach the goals that Washington has drawn for it in the Yemeni war. The Saudis mistakenly believe that the Yemeni crisis has a military solution, while such an idea will not only solve the problem, but adds to it each day and, of course, to the suffering of the oppressed people of Yemen.

The White House decision to put an end to the war, if true, is not about human rights issues in Yemen, but to save al-Saud from the marsh that has been created with the resistance of the Yemenis. Americans now think of peace and reconciliation in Yemen, now that they have failed to bring the Yemeni people to their knees.

Now that Ansarullah still has the upper hand in the Yemen war, they must prepare themselves with the same stance to end the war and resolve the rights of the Yemeni people.