The ambiguous future of European Union

By Hanif Ghafari

TEHRAN - Economic, security, social and political crises in Europe continue. On the other hand, the next four months will be the European Parliamentary elections: elections that are expected to be successful in those nationalist and extremist groups.

 Under these circumstances, the "future of the European Union" has no clear prospect! Many analysts and experts in the field of international relations are cautious about the political existence of the European Union and the Eurozone.

Meanwhile, the political situation of European leaders is not clear. What is happening today in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom reflects this fact. Although French President Emmanuel Macron has withdrawn from the fuel tax laws, the "Yellow Vests" continue to follow their demands of the Elysees Palace, taking out to the streets of Paris and other cities. Indeed, what is happening in Europe? Is "the collapse of United Europe" still an "abstract idea"? Or has it become an "objective reality" under the influence of past years' events in Europe? In this regard, there are some points that should be taken into consideration: 

1-As emphasized at the beginning of this note, The European Union is now under a critical pressure! The constant political, social and security crises have raised the vulnerability of this block. On the other hand, European leaders have clearly lost control over issues such as "Brexit" and "European economic crisis". It shouldn't be forgotten that ten years of austerity policies and a reduction in the general budgets of the Eurozone member states had bad results for the European citizens, and the signs of the economic crisis can be still seen throughout Europe.

2-Many European leaders feel incapable of solving existing crises. It should be noted that EU leaders like Merkel and Macron do not have a common understanding of what is going on in this series! On the other hand, if the nationalist and anti-European parties achieve absolute or relative victory in the 2019 European Parliamentary elections, the situation in the European Union and the eurozone will become harder.

Eu is faced with a serious problem called the growth of nationalism and Right extremism. These anti-immigration movements, which, after the failure of European governments to resolve the economic crisis as well as the imminent crisis of immigration in 2015, have gained a lot of supporters, are planning to conquer the European Parliament and government, and then put an end to the "United Europe" and its symbols such as "the Euro currency" and "Schengen Agreement.

At the moment, EU leaders are worried about the outcome of this year's parliamentary elections.

 In the 2014 parliamentary elections, more than 100 nationalist and far-right extremists managed to find the way to the European Parliament. This time, nationalists may win even more seats in the European Parliament. In this case, the social and political power of nationalist and anti-immigration movements in Europe will be increased. Consequently, the existence of United Europe's foundation will be directly targeted. This is a threat that has already shadowed Brussels (the headquarters of the European Union).
Finally, the fate of the European Union and the Eurozone are tied to the European Parliamentary elections. Will these elections mean the revival of the European Union or the beginning of its collapse? The answer to this question will be determined in the near future.

France' unrestful days with Macron

By Mohammad Ghaderi 

TEHRAN - French President Emmanuel Macron is going through hard times! On the one hand, Macron's popularity with the French citizens has drastically fallen during recent months, and the continuation of public protests in different cities of France, has created a difficult situation for the young French president.

 Under such circumstances, many analysts of the French affairs believe that Macron is not going to have a better fate than Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, and if he's not removed from power before 2022, he doesn't have a chance to win in the next presidential election. Anyway, the "yellow vests" have severely disturbed the French president's dreams.
 It should not be forgotten that in 2017, Macron came to power with the slogan of economic development in France and the economic and political leadership of the European Union. However, the French president has failed to become a strong leader in Europe. Today he's considered a defeated figure in the French economy and politics.

 The polls conducted in France indicate that Macron's popularity has fallen by %25 over the last months! Today, the French president is striving to resist the opposition groups in his country which are basically against his policies. These opponents are mostly members of the nationalist movement of France, along with conservative and socialist activists!

The fact is that in 2021, Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, will step down from power. Many analysts believe Merkel's successor won't be able to influence the European equations the way she could, at least not in the near future. On the other hand, regarding the Brexit, British authorities can't play an important role as the leader of the United Europe.

 Under such circumstances, the French see themselves as undisputed leaders of Europe (after 2021). Therefore, Macron's political and social opponents are determined not to let him regain power in the next elections. Moreover, in 2017, French citizens practically turned their back on their country's two traditional parties, namely, socialists and conservatives.

 Under such circumstances, Marin Le Pen and French nationalists are hopeful about the next year European Parliament elections. They hope that by winning these elections, they can take an important step in defeating Macron in France' next presidential elections. It is not unreasonable that some analysts consider far-right extremists behind the recent protests in this country.

Undoubtedly, recent protests in France will not be the last round of protests against the administration of Emmanuel Macron. These protests will continue until 2022 (The time for France next presidential elections). Without a doubt, the French protests and the political fate of Emmanuel Macron will also affect the equations of the united Europe, making this block and the Eurozone even more vulnerable. In such a situation, it's not exactly clear that what would be the European leaders' final decision and policy towards France' ongoing protests.

 It should be noted that France protests occurred just at a time when Europe was more vulnerable than any time before, due to the London's exit from the EU. This has motivated the opposition groups inside the European countries for departing the European Union and the Eurozone, which consequently resulted in the intensification of nationalism through the Green Continent, an issue that has raised deep concerns among European officials.