Who Stopped Trump from Launching a Military Strike Against Iran?

Dhia Abu Maaraj Al-Daraji

It wasn't Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, or any other country that stopped Donald Trump from launching a military strike against Iran. While some of these countries did request that a war not erupt in the Gulf, fearing it would engulf the entire region, their influence on Trump's decision was negligible. Trump, by his very nature and personality, disregards the opinions of other nations and ignores their warnings when they conflict with his impulsiveness and aggressive rhetoric.

What actually stopped Trump wasn't a political stance or regional mediation, but rather a technological shock. This shock came when Iran demonstrated, practically rather than theoretically, its ability to disrupt communication technologies related to satellite internet and Starlink satellites, thus preventing communication with its agents inside Iran—technology that is a fundamental component of modern American command and control systems. This development unsettled Trump's advisors and plunged them into genuine anxiety, as it raised the possibility of advanced Iranian missile technology that could surpass American deterrent technology, or at least neutralize a significant portion of it. This was a possibility that had not been factored into traditional American calculations.

During what became known as the "Twelve-Day War," Iran had spoken of possessing advanced capabilities that it had not used, not due to incapacity, but because its older missiles had achieved their intended purpose. These missiles were able to penetrate Israeli defenses, strike Al Udeid Air Base, and reach their targets with ease and precision, meaning the message had been delivered without the need to reveal its most crucial cards.

This is precisely where the real fear began within Washington's decision-making circles. The possibility of Iran possessing smart missiles or advanced guidance and jamming systems meant that any war would not be short or clean, but rather costly and dangerous. US bases in the Middle East, Israeli bases, and perhaps even sites in Cyprus and Europe, would all be within the circle of danger. Even more dangerous is the fact that the United States' failure to topple the Iranian regime, coupled with the severe damage inflicted on its bases and those of its allies, without the ability to deter a potential Iranian response, would shatter America's image as a global deterrent. This is precisely what Trump cannot afford, neither politically nor psychologically.

This is why Trump backed down. Not out of respect for allies, nor out of concern for the Gulf, but out of fear of an Iranian technological surprise that could shift the balance of power and undermine the prestige of American deterrence in the eyes of its global adversaries.

Dhia Abu Maaraj Al-Daraji