EXCLUSIVE: Saudi Arabia gives 'green light' for talks with Iran

By 

Mustafa Abu Sneineh

, Simon Hooper

Official in Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's office confirms Baghdad has channels with both sides and is seeking to arrange meeting

Adel Abdul Mahdi met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah last week (SPA)

Saudi Arabia has given a green light to Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to arrange a meeting with Iran as a first step towards de-escalating tensions in the region, Middle East Eye can reveal.

Abbas al-Hasnawi, an official in the prime minister's office, told MEE on Tuesday that Abdul Mahdi was mediating between the leaderships in Riyadh and Tehran and had communicated each side's conditions for talks to the other.

Hasnawi was speaking after a spokesperson for the Iranian government said on Monday that Saudi Arabia had sent messages to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani via “the leaders of some countries”.

Hasnawi confirmed to MEE that Abdul Mahdi was acting as an intermediary with the aim of easing tensions since attacks on Saudi oil facilities blamed on Iran earlier this month appeared to have tilted the Gulf rivals closer to open conflict.

'Channels with both sides'

"The Iraqi leadership has channels with both sides. Our Sunni brothers [in the government] liaise with the Saudis and our Shia brothers with the Iranians," he said.

"The Saudis have conditions before the negotiations process starts and the same with Iranians. We have liaised these conditions to each side. It is not an easy task to get together two opposite sides in terms of their ideology, sect and their alliances in the region."

Hasnawi said Abdul Mahdi had called for a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Iran which the Iraqi government would supervise and mediate, with Baghdad as its preferred venue.

"The Saudis have given the green light in this matter, and Mr Abdul Mahdi is working on it," said Hasnawi, adding that Saudi Arabia, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, had "calmed their rhetoric" in recent days.

Abdul Mahdi was last week in Jeddah for talks with the Saudi crown prince.

"If there will be a potential deal in the region that includes Yemen, Syria and Iraq, the Americans have no problem with that," Hasnawi said.

Baghdad 'the best place'

Hasnawi said Abdul Mahdi hoped to host a meeting in Baghdad but a location had yet to be agreed.

"Baghdad is the best place for this meeting, but I can’t confirm it will be. In the beginning, there will be meetings between officials of both countries, and then a deal will be made. Leaders of Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet to sign it."

'Saudi Arabia’s conditions are that Iran minimise its role in Yemen and Syria and stop supporting armed groups such as the Houthis'

- Abbas al-Hasnawi, Iraqi official

Hasnawi said that both sides had set out conditions as a starting point for negotiations.

"Saudi Arabia’s conditions are that Iran minimise its role in Yemen and Syria and stop supporting armed groups such as the Houthis. It also asks the Syrian regime to solve its problems with the Syrian opposition groups, and to write a constitution for Syria with all parties agreeing on it," he said.

The back-channel contacts between Riyadh and Tehran follow this month's devastating attacks on Saudi oil fields, which Saudi Arabia and the US have blamed on Iran.

Iran denies involvement in the attacks, which were initially claimed by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.

However, Iraqi security sources told MEE at the time that the attacks were launched from bases in southern Iraq controlled by Iranian-backed militias.

But leaders in both Saudi Arabia and Iran have indicated in recent days that their countries are open to talks aimed at de-escalating regional tensions.

Political solution preferable

In an interview with the CBS network broadcast on Sunday, Mohammed bin Salman said that “a political and peaceful solution is much better than a military one”, calling on Iran to end its support for the Houthis in Yemen.

He suggested that a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would mean the “total collapse of the global economy”.

On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani told Al Jazeera that Iran welcomed the crown prince’s apparent willingness to talk.

“We welcome Mohammed bin Salman being quoted as saying he wants to resolve issues through talks with Tehran," Larijani was quoted as saying.

Iran’s foreign ministry has also suggested it is open to multilateral talks involving the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s key regional ally.

“We are ready to hold talks with countries, especially the Emirates, in a group or separately and eliminate the misunderstandings,” foreign ministry spokesperson Abbas Mousavi said in a weekly press conference.

'Between the rock and a hard place'

Abdul Mahdi has been working for months to prevent his country becoming a battleground for a proxy war between the US and Iran.

According to Iraqi security sources spoken to by MEE, the US military earlier this year signalled its intention to him to strike an air field held by Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah militia after drone strikes on oil facilities in the Gulf.

Abdul Mahdi was reported by witnesses to the exchange to have told the Americans that he could not stop them striking wherever they wanted, but neither could he prevent retaliatory strikes by Iranian backed militias on US troops and bases in Iraq.

The US strike on Iraqi Hezbollah never took place. Instead, the US allowed Israel to use its drones from SDF bases in northeastern Syria, an Iraqi intelligence source said.

In August, Abdul Mahdi came under huge pressure to publicly accuse Israel of launching drones to attack targets on Iraqi terrritory.

“Our prime minister is between the rock and a hard place,” the intelligence source told MEE.

“He told both the Iranians and the Americans Iraq is exhausted after decades of wars, conflicts and civil war. 

"Dragging it into the centre of the proxy war between Iran on one side and the USA and its regional allies on the other will risk irreparable damage to its stability and unity with huge implications for the whole region."

Speaking to MEE on Tuesday, Hasnawi reiterated those concerns.

"The region can’t withstand another conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is a hazardous region, and it is rich with crude oil, essential to the whole world," he said.

Iran, Iraq forge ahead with collaboration amid US pressure

Hamidreza Azizi

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi visited Tehran April 6-7, his first official visit to the neighboring country since assuming office in October 2018. Accompanied by a large delegation of high-ranking Iraqi officials and representatives of the private sector, Abdul Mahdi came to Tehran at the formal invitation of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

Apart from meeting with Rouhani, the Iraqi leader also met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and attended a joint meeting of the Iranian and Iraqi business sectors at the Iran Chamber of Commerce. The visit came less than a month after Rouhani’s visit to Iraq — the first by the Iranian president since taking office in 2013 — in which the two sides reached a number of important agreements, mostly on economic issues.

The increased frequency of high-level meetings between Iranian and Iraqi officials, as well as Abdul Mahdi's busy schedule while in Tehran, sparked fresh discussion on the growing ties between the two neighbors. In fact, taking into account Abdul Mahdi’s agenda in Iran, as well as the regional and international circumstances surrounding the visit, it could be said that the visit was important from three main aspects.

First and foremost, the visit came amid increased pressure from the United States to limit Iran’s influence in Iraq, giving the visit a symbolic aspect. Although the US administration agreed on March 20 to extend the sanctions waiver for Iraq, so it can import gas and electricity from Iran for a 90-day period, it has been pressuring Baghdad to eliminate its energy dependence on Tehran.

However, Iraq’s parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi said March 30 that his country needs at least three years to become “economically independent.” Until then, Iraq needs to continue importing energy. Furthermore, Abdul Mahdi himself previously emphasized that his country is "not obliged" to abide by US sanctions against Iran. One of the main topics of discussion during both Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad and Abdul Mahdi’s visit to Tehran was how to bypass the sanctions in bilateral economic ties.

Apart from the sanctions, Washington has tried to dissuade Iraqi officials from expanding relations with the Islamic Republic by trying to depict Iran's role in Iraq as negative and destructive. Following Rouhani’s visit to Iraq in March, US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook claimed that Iran wants to turn Iraq into a province. Before Abdul Mahdi’s departure to Tehran, Hook said Iran was responsible for the deaths of more than 600 American troops in Iraq.

Under such circumstances, Abdul Mahdi’s visit and his expressed willingness to develop ties with the Islamic Republic were interpreted by the Iranian media as signs of Baghdad’s indifference toward US positions. For instance, IRIB news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s state broadcaster, wrote that Abdul Mahdi's "visit to Iran has a special message for the United States." Iranian First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri expressed the same view. During his meeting with Abdul Mahdi April 7, he said, “The clear message is that despite the American hostilities, Tehran and Baghdad are determined to comprehensively expand their ties.”

The diplomatic aspect of Abdul Mahdi’s visit was no less important. Two days before his trip, he hosted a high-ranking Saudi delegation, headed by Saudi Trade Minister Majid bin Abdullah al-Qasabi. The Saudi official was not only tasked with reopening the Saudi Consulate in Baghdad after nearly three decades of closure, but also with strengthening economic ties between the two countries, including providing Iraq with $1 billion in loans. The visit, a clear sign of Riyadh’s desire to initiate a rapprochement with Baghdad, was interpreted as being aimed at curbing Iran’s influence in Iraq. 

However, not only did the Saudi charm offensive not affect Abdul Mahdi’s bid for closer relations with the Islamic Republic, it apparently made him eager to play a mediating role between the two rivals. Upon the Iraqi leader’s arrival in Tehran, the media reported that an Iraqi mediation plan was to be presented to Tehran. According to media reports, the plan has been in the works since Abdul Mahdi’s visit to Egypt in March, and it will be discussed with Saudi officials during his visit to Riyadh next month.

Although the two sides have not confirmed those reports, Rouhani’s reference to regional issues in his joint press conference with Abdul Mahdi could indicate that they addressed the issue during their meeting. “The [situation of] the region was one of the issues discussed between the two sides,” Rouhani said, adding that “we have common viewpoints on many regional issues.” As such, it seems Baghdad is trying to build upon its current favorable relations with both Tehran and Riyadh to push them toward a compromise.

The third yet most important aspect of Abdul Mahdi’s visit to Tehran was the economic aspect. Economic issues dominated the visit, with both sides declaring a desire to enhance annual bilateral trade to $20 billion within the next three years. According to Reza Rahmani, the Iranian minister of industry, mines and trade, the two sides are also working on a free trade agreement. Separately, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced that the two sides would start working on the development of two shared oil fields. Media also reported that Iran’s central bank head Abdolnaser Hemmati will soon travel to Baghdad to personally oversee the implementation of financial agreements.

Given the current situation, with the United States determined to pursue a policy of imposing “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic through economic sanctions, Iraq’s approach of not giving in to the pressure, and thereby continuing its economic interactions with Iran, is of great significance to Tehran. Meanwhile, as both Iran and Saudi Arabia redefine their relations with Iraq, giving more weight to the economic aspect, the Iranian-Saudi rivalry could take on a geo-economic characteristic, gradually replacing the traditional geopolitical one. This, in turn, would further decrease the risk of an escalation between the two sides, while making it easier for Baghdad to pursue a balanced foreign policy toward its two powerful neighbors.

Hamidreza Azizi is an assistant professor of regional studies at Shahid Beheshti University and a member of the scientific board at the Iran and Eurasia Studies Institute (IRAS) in Tehran.