Finding a replacement for Adel Abdul Mahdi

By Ramin Hossein Abadian

Under the Iraqi constitution, the president must ask the grand coalition in the parliament to nominate a new candidate, which usually takes some time.

Although Iraqi political groups have always needed a lot of consultations to make the final decision, it seems even more difficult to agree on a candidate, especially as there is a pressure by the protesters. 

Meanwhile, some figures are calling for the resignation of the heads of the three branches of the government and holding an early election. 

Currently, the Iraqi president is extensively consulting with political groups and parliamentarians to make a final decision. Some conditions have been stated for the new prime minister that makes it even harder for the president to come to a decision. 

The Iraqi politicians believe that in addition to an agreement on a new prime minister or his acceptance by people, the interpretation of the constitution is another problem for electing new prime minister. 

According to Article 76 of the constitution, the president charges the candidate, who is nominated by the grand coalition, with forming a cabinet. If the nominee cannot establish a cabinet within the given time, he must resign or be removed, and the president should appoint another person to form a cabinet in 15 days. But, Iraq’s constitution has not specified whether or not the nominee should be a person from the grand coalition. 

On the other hand, from the Iraqi observers’ point of view, by this mission, the Iraqi parliament has put Barham Salih in charge of making a decision. Now, the president should satisfy protesters and face the anger of those political groups that elected him to the post of president or take the political groups’ side and await the protesters’ rage. 

The constitution has created a dilemma for the Iraqi president, so he has to decide to whether support protesters or the political groups.

Another issue is that there is no interpretation in the constitution to determine how many times the president can nominate a candidate.

If the candidates nominated by the president fail for several times, then what will happen next? This is an issue that should be determined by Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court.

The Parliament's legal committee member Bahar Mahmoud told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that according to Article 81 of the constitution, in case the post of prime minister remains vacant, the president will serve in the position for 15 days. The premiership vacuum happens in cases of dismissal, resignation, permanent disability or illness that prevent performing the prime ministerial duties. In the current situation, any action, which is not under the article, is illegal.

Ali al-Tamimi, an Iraqi legal expert, told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that if the president cannot find a replacement for the prime minister by the end of 15-day period, Adel Abdul Mahdi will remain in power for another 30 days. After this period the president will be in charge of running the country for 30 days. If a new premiership candidate is not found, Iraq will face a constitutional vacuum. The constitution has no solution to the problem because such a situation has not been predicted. 

The constitutional deadline is not observed in many cases, so it is expected that Abdul Mahdi remain in power for the next six months. This matter will create constitutional problems, and the decisions made by the prime minister will not be legally valid.

But it has not yet been determined that who will be the next prime minister of Iraq, especially given that the life of the Iraqi caretaker government is not more than a month under the constitution, and consultations have not yet come to a conclusion. 

Indeed, the process of electing a new prime minister will be very difficult. Earlier, a source close to the Iraqi president announced that he had not yet received a name for the prime minister. 

Meanwhile, Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi urged political groups to nominate a new person.

Abdul Mahdi said that the cabinet had only two choices, either to resign, which is what he did, or to vacate the prime ministerial position, and in that case the president would serve as prime minister for 15 days until a new prime minister was elected.  “Finally,” he said, “We decided to resign after consultations with the Federal Court.” 

Anyway, Salih has no more than 12 days to elect a new prime minister. But given the difficulties, it seems unlikely that the president can carry out this job within remaining time as electing a new prime minister is a time consuming process. 

Intensifying pressure on Abdul Mahdi to resign

By Ramin Hossein Abadian

Domestic and foreign pressure for ousting Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi appear to have increased more than ever.

Iraq’s President Barham Salih has also recently made a statement in this regard, saying, “The prime minister had previously agreed to submit his resignation if the blocs agree on an acceptable replacement in order to adhere to constitutional and legal frameworks”.

Condemning the violence against the protesters, Salih claimed that he will stand beside the Iraqi people.

The prime minister added that he is against quelling the protesters. Addressing the protesters, he said the Iraqi people and security forces are on the same side. Noting that forcible action is not the way to deal with the protestors, Salih said that reforms is the only solution.

There are two-point regarding the remarks by the Iraqi president. The first point is that Abdul Mahdi has only announced his consent for resignation, and considered its dependent on the agreement of political parties about a replacement.  Therefore, as some foreign media have suggested, a resignation of Abdul Mahdi cannot be considered inevitable.

 The second point in Salih’s remarks is that Adul Mahdi is well aware of Iraq’s political situation. He knows that even if he resigns, political parties will not come to an agreement about a replacement, at least in the short run, and this matter will emerge as a serious problem. The prime minister has agreed to “conditional resignation” to prevent Iraq from facing a “power vacuum”.

Currently, it is obvious that domestic and foreign pressure has increased on the Iraqi government to make Abdul Mahdi step down.  Domestic pressure mainly comes from a particular political current that has repeatedly asked for the resignation of the prime minister and hold an early election. In such a situation, Iraqi Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr had earlier announced if Abdul Mahdi did not step down, Iraq would become like Yemen and Syria.

The pressure by political parties and figures such as Muqtada al-Sadr on the prime minister is taking place while the government has taken great steps to carry out reforms, and has also established good cooperation with the parliament. To this end, one of the latest government’s reform plans includes training job seekers, reducing retirement age, cutting taxes for small businesses and industries and removing their income tax.

According to a recent statement issued by the government, it is stated in the new reform package that the Ministry of Energy should train job seekers and provide them with financial aid so that they can get a job in government organizations, or help them to launch small businesses. The government put Civil Servants Pension Organization in charge of developing a plan to reduce retirement age in government jobs and to provide more employment opportunities for the youth.

Last week, Abdul Mahdi released an important message about reforms, stating that the government had emphasized the importance of creating a special anti-corruption court to prosecute the corrupt.

In addition to domestic pressure, the U.S. applied its pressure since the very first days of the protests to force Iraq’s prime minister to resign. Americans have played an important role in Iraq’s uprising through their embassy in Baghdad.

Earlier, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar wrote, “Attempts for political coup are supported by the United States.” The newspaper also said the cost of the coup is $150 million, which Saudi Arabia has pledged to provide, and its implementation is on Iraqi civil society organizations backed by the U.S. embassy in Iraq.

The U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, is also involved in foreign pressure on the prime minister. This matter can be easily understood in the remarks of the ambassador about the recent unrest. For example, Tuller recently said that it “appears inevitable” that Abdul Mahdi would resign.

In addition, about three weeks ago the American newspaper Task and Purpose revealed Tuller’s correspondence with Washington officials about Abdul Mahdi’s resignation.

According to the newspaper, in a classified email sent to U.S. military leaders on Saturday morning, Tueller wrote, “We assess Moqtada al-Sadr is seeking to take advantage of this crisis by giving demonstrators a dramatic response to their anger against the government and strengthening his own hand. Subsequently, former PM Haider al-Abadi also issued a call for early elections. With these drastic developments, the resignation of [Adil Abdul-Mahdi] by as early as today appears inevitable and Iraq's government will enter unchartered [sic] and fraught political territory.”

In view of all these things, it is clear that domestic and foreign pressure is intensifying on the government.

Iraqi PM says Riyadh wants to avoid war with Iran

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has said that he believes Saudi Arabia is looking to de-escalate tensions with Iran.

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera published on Monday, he said that it is in everybody’s interest to prevent further war in the region.

“Nobody possesses the weapons necessary to deal their adversary a fatal blow. Chaos and destruction will hit the region in its entirety,” he said.

“Everybody is open to dialogue,” he said. “Iran says [it is] willing to negotiate if sanctions are lifted; the U.S. [also] asks for dialogue ... neither does Saudi Arabia close the door for dialogue,” Abdul Hadi added.

“There are many countries, and Iraq is one of them, that can offer a solution or a place for a solution to be found.”

His comments came as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes program aired on Sunday that he  preferred a peaceful resolution with Iran, describing it as “much better than the military” option.

In a possible sign of diplomacy, Abdul Mahdi has announced that he would visit Tehran soon, in an effort to reduce tension in the region, according to Iraqi media. 

“Abdul Mahdi, who has arrived from Saudi Arabia wants to invite Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman and the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Baghdad for a meeting,” he was quoted as saying.

Earlier, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan had also said that he was making an effort to mediate between Tehran and Riyadh. He held talks with Saudi Arabia’s leaders in Riyadh, as well as with Rouhani at the United Nations.  

Rouhani warned world leaders on September 25 at the UN General Assembly that “the Persian Gulf region is on the edge of collapse, as a single blunder can fuel a big fire.”

Iraq Inching From Sectarianism to Patriotism: Expert

Alwaght- After the political marathon in Iraq to pick a new president and a prime minister, the country’s politics now witnesses a debate of how the experienced, technocratic Prime Minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi will form his cabinet. When Abdul Mahdi was named for the post, he vowed to put meritocracy first in choosing his ministers, adding that his government will be strong and cross-party including figures from all Iraqi political factions regardless of their ethnicity or religion.

Alwaght has talked to Sayed Mahdi Afqahi, an Iranian West Asia affairs expert, asking him for comments on the new government’s plans, as well as the challenges and obstacles ahead.

When asked about how the new cabinet will look like, Mr Afqahi told the parties in this year’s election talked against sectarian quota system in hope of attracting the maximum votes. This view was held by the Shiite alliances such as Saeroon and Fatah, as well as other blocs.

“With the parties’ shift of vision and expanding their horizons, I believe that Iraq will move, with a gentle slope, from the sectarian approach to a patriotic one to form a national unity government. In fact, the participant parties insisted on driving out the sectarian quota system and highlighted the need for Iraqis unity to beat the problems.”

Mr Afqahi continued that President Barham Salih, Speaker Mohamed al-Halbusi, and PM-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi all strongly believe in this political path and have recently raised the slogans anew. Abdul Mahdi, for example, vowed to form a government where no political party feels marginalized. He, thus, told the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish factions to each name four ministers for each post. This will pave the way for a national unity government, according to him.

“With regard to the pro-inclusion, cross-sectarian rhetoric of the Iraqi politicians, Abdul Mahdi works towards the realization of this aim.”

But Mr Afqahi pointed to the fact that uniting all Iraqis around this anti-sectarianism ideal is a difficult job, adding that to date none of the PMs managed to materialize this ideal. He, however, maintained that Abdul Mahdi enjoys wide-ranging acceptance and support by both the politicians and the clergy. So, he can learn from the previous governments' mistakes and form a technocratic government.

Alwaght also asked the expert about the key challenges the new government will face. He replied that the challenges are both at home and abroad. Domestically, according to him, Abdul Mahdi will face financial and administrative corruption, which is a hugely heavy case.

“If he forms the best cabinet but declines to seriously fight bribery and the labyrinthine network of banking and financial mafia– the heavy cases which remained unsolved by the previous PM Haider al-Abadi–, he will certainly fail to proceed with his programs.”

Essentially, the parties strongly insisted that corruption needs to be uprooted. Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr, Saeroon's leader, has set an ultimatum for the new government to effectively fight corruption, warning that if it fails to meet the demand, he will sink the government. Fatah bloc, led by Hadi al-Amiri, also placed its main emphasis on the anti-corruption fight which has so far marred many development programs.

“Another internal issue,” Mr Afqahi told Alwaght, “is the reconstruction of Iraq. We can now say that Iraq is a ruined country. Three largest and most strategic provinces of Iraq have been destroyed by ISIS. Beside ISIS destruction, the Americans under the excuse of fighting ISIS reduced to rubble many areas in Nineveh, Salahaddin, and Anbar provinces, making them uninhabitable for years. I visited them in person.”

Another big issue at home is the unemployment, according to the Iranian expert. The oil sales income is only enough to pay the salaries of the state workers and armed forces personnel. So, the government’s hands to create jobs along with the pursuing rebuilding projects will be tied. If it seeks to borrow money from the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, then it should meet the tough demands of the creditors. This, in turn, will lead to further reliance on abroad.

“So the government has to rely on home achievements of the fight against corruption and also expand cooperation with its strategic neighbor, Iran. Partnership with Tehran in areas like oil, gas, and electricity production, and technology transfer will be useful to Iraq. Baghdad apparently saw the fruits of anti-terror cooperation with Iran. But Saudi Arabia is an origin of terrorism. Turkey still occupies parts of Iraqi territories. Syria is itself in need of help amid the devastating war against terrorism. And the US, as another partnership choice, seeks to dominate Iraq and loot its oil.”

Yet another challenge the new government is facing is the American military presence. Now some 7,000 American troops are present in Iraq, which is contrary to the security pact between the two countries, signed in 2008 that was aimed at training the Iraqi army and helping it reorganize.

“The question for the Iraqis is that what these 7,000 troops under the guise of military advisors are doing in Iraq. Was this approved by the parliament, or is it a secret agreement between al-Abadi (former premier) and Washington? The US has under construction its biggest consulate in the world in Erbil, with a size of 24 hectares.”

Mr Afqahi also commented on the future of relations between Baghdad and the Kurds under Abdul Mahdi. He noted that this issue is related to the autonomous region’s demands from the central government. Masoud Barzani, the former president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, has recently called on Baghdad to hand back Kirkuk to the Kurds. “Certainly, neither the parliament nor the al-Hashd Al-Sha'abi [Arabic name for Popular Mobilization Forces] will allow Abdul Mahdi to return the oil-rich Kirkuk to Barzani to sell its oil to Israel and Turkey.”

Mr Afqahi also pointed to the foreign challenges of the new government. The first challenge, he said, is the American influence in Iraq's political, military, cultural, and financial areas, despite the fact that this year’s election indicated a sharp decline in the US sway in Iraq, which can be labeled a decline from strategic to tactical level. Abdul Mahdi and Salih's relationship with Washington will never be submissive as was that of Barzani and Osama al-Nujaifi, former parliament speaker. “Another foreign challenge is the Turkish military presence in Bashiqa region in northern Iraq,” he continued.

Afqahi also addressed the chances of victory over the challenges ahead, saying it depends on the makeup of the cabinet, genuine anti-corruption fight, and the popular and clergy help. He said the new PM should make priorities. First, he should solve the main problems like unemployment and meet the people’s basic needs. This will win him people’s support which is necessary for dealing with heavier problems. “Empty slogans only dangerously infuriate people,” the pundit concluded.