By Mohamad Hammoud
Recognition, UAE influence and emerging security considerations are reshaping the Horn of Africa.
For more than thirty years, the boundary separating Somalia and Somaliland existed in political ambiguity—a de facto line with no international recognition. That changed on December 26, 2025, when “Israel” became the first United Nations member state to formally recognize Somaliland. The decision marked a sharp strategic shift, driven not by principles of self-determination but by security calculations. Tel Aviv sought a permanent military and intelligence foothold at one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, the Bab El-Mandeb.
Strategic Calculations Behind the Move
The recognition followed months of discreet diplomacy and intelligence coordination, according to The National. “Israel” aimed to secure over 460 miles of Somaliland coastline along the Gulf of Aden, bypassing the contested waters of Yemen, where Houthi forces have increasingly affected commercial shipping. Reports in Al Majalla described the move as a political cover for a broader security arrangement, including the potential establishment of a major military installation near Berbera or Zeila. Radar, surveillance and electronic systems stationed there would allow real-time monitoring of drone and missile activity, projecting power into the southern Red Sea while protecting shipping routes to “Eilat”.
The UAE’s Strategic Role
While “Israel” provided recognition, the United Arab Emirates had long laid the groundwork. Abu Dhabi’s engagement in Somaliland and Puntland predates the announcement and has often sidestepped Mogadishu. According to Africa Intelligence, the UAE has cultivated these regions as reliable partners, upgrading ports and airports while embedding its commercial and security interests along the Red Sea corridor. The expansion of Berbera port, presented as development, serves dual purposes: reinforcing Emirati maritime ambitions while providing infrastructure compatible with “Israeli” security needs. Brown Land News reported in mid-2025 that Somali airports, such as Bosaso, were used to support regional security operations. In effect, Somaliland became both a strategic partner and a platform for projecting influence in the Horn of Africa.
The Yemeni Response
The announcement immediately drew a sharp reaction from Yemen. On December 28, 2025, Ansarullah leader Sayyed Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi declared that any “Israeli” presence in Somaliland would constitute a legitimate military target. He framed recognition as an aggressive act aimed at fragmenting the region and warned that facilities in Berbera or Hargeisa would be treated as extensions of occupation. As Ynetnews reported, the Ansarullah pledged support for Somalia’s federal government, positioning themselves as defenders of Somali sovereignty and signaling that the Red Sea conflict now extended across the Bab El-Mandeb. A single strike on a coastal installation could escalate tensions across multiple theaters.
Who Bears the Cost
The benefits of recognition are narrowly concentrated, but the implications are widely distributed. Somalia’s federal government is the primary affected party, as unilateral secession challenges Mogadishu’s authority and the African Union's long-upheld principle of territorial integrity.
Somaliland, though gaining diplomatic validation, assumes responsibilities tied to strategic significance. Ports and airstrips previously promoted for development now carry strategic significance, embedding the region in broader security considerations. Neighboring states, including Djibouti and Eritrea, must adjust security postures as the Bab El-Mandeb becomes increasingly central. Global shipping faces potential cost and routing implications along a corridor that carries roughly 12% of world commerce. Regional actors influence the operational environment, creating a complex strategic landscape.
Strategic Realignment
The strategic calculus also reshapes regional alliances. UAE investment aligns with “Israeli” security goals, creating a functional partnership that prioritizes control of maritime corridors and regional influence. For “Israel,” Somaliland serves as a forward-operating platform; for the UAE, a logistical and commercial hub. Local stability is affected by broader strategic priorities. Western powers have maintained a cautious posture, reflecting the selective application of territorial principles. While Mogadishu registers concerns, the West continues to rely on “Israeli” and Emirati security cooperation, implicitly permitting strategic recalibration.
Somaliland as a Strategic Frontline
By exerting influence in the Gulf of Aden, “Israel” has expanded the geography of its strategic operations, while the UAE consolidates its influence over a key maritime corridor. Somaliland is no longer peripheral; it represents a frontline in a regional contest over trade, intelligence, and military access. The Horn of Africa now occupies a central position in Middle Eastern strategic calculations—its significance measured in evolving security dynamics rather than formal recognition ceremonies.
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