By Dr. Mahdi Zolfaghari
TEHRAN - A review of Donald Trump’s recent statements on the social network Truth Social reveals a profound paradox in his mindset ahead of the next election race. While public opinion and credible polling data, including the results of the DDHQ Institute, which shows his average approval rating at around 44.1 percent, paint a realistic picture of his situation, Trump has locked himself into a purported and unrealistic approval rating of 64 percent.
This huge gap between claim and reality is rooted in his inability to accept negative signals from the political environment. Trump attributes this glaring discrepancy directly to “public opinion engineering” and the purposeful manipulation of polls by his rival. He is trying to portray the current situation as “much hotter” than it is, drawing on the achievements of his presidency—including strengthening the border, curbing inflation, bolstering the military, and his supposedly “superb” economic performance.
This approach is a clear attempt to create a parallel narrative in which any contrary data is simply a conspiracy. However, political reality presents him with more serious challenges.
The impressive victories of Democrats in the 2025 midterm elections, especially at the local and state levels, are a major wake-up call for the Trump campaign. On the other hand, the numerous legal cases, especially those related to the Epstein affair and the accusations against his inner circle, are putting additional psychological pressure on him.
As he heads into 2024, Trump remains focused on his core promises, including bringing prices back down, implementing a massive deportation of illegal immigrants, and immediately reversing the policies of the Biden administration. The key issue is the Republican Party itself. Reports suggest growing disarray and quiet rebellions within the party’s core.
His feuds with influential figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene suggest that his continued leadership is becoming a structural challenge. Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove sums it up well: The American political community is fed up with Trump’s “revenge-driven campaigns and scurrilous rhetoric.” Rove theorizes that Trump has convinced himself that he no longer needs to defend complex policy agendas; All he has to do is beat the drum that he is the “greatest, best, most amazing” leader in history, and people will automatically accept this superiority. This one-sided “talk therapy” stands in stark contrast to the nightmare of November 2026, where the reality of the ballot box will reveal his true popularity.
Mahdi Zolfaghari is an Associate Professor of Asian Studies at Allameh Tabataba’i University
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