Earlier this week, unknown gunmen assassinated Hussein al-Allaq in the Muallemin District of Amarah, the center of Iraq’s Maysan province. Following the killing, while police investigations are still ongoing with no clear results announced, armed clashes erupted in the province between elements loyal to the Sadrist Movement and supporters of the Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq, led by Qais Khazali. Supporters of the Peace Brigades set fire to the office of the head of thet provincial council Mustafa al-Mohamadawi, who is a member of Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq.
Although Muqtada al-Sadr issued a statement calling on his supporters to exercise restraint, their subsequent attack on an Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq office in Amarah reveals a highly volatile environment, primed to ignite.
Given these developments, this assassination is far more than a mere security incident. It stands as a stark warning of attempts to incite an intra-Shiite civil war and fracture the unity of Iraq’s resistance factions. The killing occurred against a backdrop of historical grievances and political-military rivalry between two major Shiite currents, the Sadrist movement and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, linking it to a broader strategic operation with far-reaching aims.
In recent days, media outlets have circulated claims that al-Allaq was a suspect in the 2019 assassination of Wisam al-Aliawi, a commander of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq. This highlights the deep and bloody roots of the conflict, where any spark can reignite long-simmering hostilities. At the time of Aliawi's killing, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq reported that its Maysan office head and his brother were killed in an armed attack on its headquarters. Following the recent assassination, al-Allaq’s family told media that he had moved from Maysan to Basra province 13 years ago and had returned to Maysan only one month before his death.
Approximately one month ago, al-Sadr announced the suspension of activities of the Peace Brigades and the closure of its main offices in Basra and Wasit provinces for six months.
Analysts warn that dragging Shiite factions into street-level score-settling and a cycle of assassinations, given the devastating impact this could have on Iraq’s entire political landscape, especially amid the complexities of forming a new government, may be a scenario scripted abroad by foreign intelligence services, targeting the Iraqi resistance.
Possible goals and the behind-the-scenes actors
The motives and interests of internal factions and external actors opposed to the Iraqi resistance are often discernible in their efforts to exacerbate intra-Shiite conflicts in Iraq.
1. Accelerating the project of disarming resistance groups: Given the popularity of the Public Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the resistance as a whole among the Iraqi public, the plan to disarm these anti-terror group is running into a major political and social obstacle. In recent years and especially during the November parliamentary elections, the US has been pressuring thr government to disarm and dissolve the PMF, which were formed in opposition to ISIS terrorist group in 2014 following a public defense fatwa by grand Shiite cleric Sayyed Ali al-Sistani. The resistance groups are the toughest opposition to the continuation of the American presence in Iraq and sowing division and clashes between them can justify broader security intervention and international pressure for their disarming.
2. Undermining Shiite unity and giving rampancy ground to enemies: Iraq's primary adversaries, especially the US and the Israeli regime, hold a clear strategic interest in undermining Shiite unity and dismantling the country's current, fragile stability.
By destabilizing Iraq, they aim to redirect the resistance's focus from external fronts, particularly the confrontation with the Israeli regime, toward internal sectarian strife. Foreign intelligence services, such as the CIA and Mossad, could fuel these tensions by orchestrating targeted assassinations, pushing rival factions toward direct confrontation.
3. Impacting the political and government formation process: This assassination is coming at a highly critical time in which the political competitions for determining the future Iraqi actors in the government are underway. Stoking a security crisis between effective factions can disrupt the balance of power and shift the course of the government formation on favor of Western-aligned and anti-resistance groups.
Enemy's possible scenario and the internal requirements
There is a strong likelihood that this assassination marks the beginning of a series of provocative operations. The anticipated scenario involves targeting key figures from both sides in an attempt to implant a narrative of retaliation,thereby fully activating a cycle of violence that spirals beyond the control of political leaders.
How can this scenario be thwarted?
1. Forming a joint and trans-partisan committee: A high-level committee must be formed immediately, comprising representatives from the Sadrist Movement, Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq, other PMF factions, and state security agencies like national Intelligence and counter-terrorism forces. Its mandate is to pursue the truth with full transparency, aiming to identify both the perpetrators and the masterminds behind the scenes, not to fall into the trap of broad, accusatory narratives.
2. Emphasis on common enemy: All factions should officially and publicly assert that their main enemy is the Israeli regime and the US project to dominate the region. Any home clashes will only play into the hands of the enemies and endanger major Shiite interests.
3. Leaders must act responsibly: The leaders of both factions must exercise their full authority to prevent any unilateral or retaliatory actions by their supporters and must issue messages that promote unity. Their stature and position must be dedicated to neutralizing the conspiracy, not exacerbating it. Thus far, the reactions and positions of both leaders have been based on managing tensions and preventing the crisis from escalating. Despite the burning of his movement's office in Maysan province, Qais al-Khazali stated he will refrain from of any intervention that threatens civil peace in the province. He emphasized resolving the matter through the judicial system to avoid the tensions being capitalize on by "those who fish in troubled waters."
4. Media revelations: Following the discovery of evidence, the identity and objectives of the perpetrators and their potential foreign backers must be presented to the Iraqi and global public with solid documentation. This disclosure would neutralize the conspiracy and bring transparency to the political arena.
Conclusion
Assassination of al-Allaq is a classic false flag operation aimed at dealing a blow to the Iraqi resistance factions. Success or failure of this plot is contingent not on its designers but on the Shiite leaders who are expected to prescribe internal cohesion and act wisely and vigilantly. Surviving this dangerous turn without further bloodshed takes a collective will for transforming the weak point into a strong point through security cooperation and cherishing the common goals.
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