The world welcomes 2026 with intensified geopolitical and geo-economic tensions and persistent conflicts.
Taut Bataut
On the other hand, the new Eastern superpowers, Russia and China, will have a greater role and power on the global stage. Nonetheless, volatility and instability will be the defining factors of the international landscape. In addition, the world would see a sharp rise in multipolarity, with middle powers playing an unprecedentedly increasing influence in shaping global geopolitics. Given the ongoing international events, the world will see a surge in shifting alliances, increasing unpredictability, and eroding regulations – leading to an unprecedented shift in the international geopolitical landscape
This demonstrates that the world in 2026 will be more volatile and unstable than it is in the year 2025
These geopolitical shifts will be determined by developments in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the trajectory of US-China relations and the global response to President Trump’s protectionist policies. In 2025, global norms have faced a severe backlash due to US President Donald Trump’s repeated disruptive policies. Other global powers are also showing a similar disregard for these international norms. Hence, a “no-rules world” will become increasingly evident in the year 2026. Control Risks, a London-based consultancy firm, has also predicted in its report that globally established rules will break down or fade in the coming year. Consequently, international alliances will become more transactional, defined primarily by national interests rather than values.
Intensifying Hard Power Politics and the Resurgence of a New Cold War
Another major trend that the world will see in the year 2026 is the further increase in the use of hard power by powerful states to pursue their interests. This is evident in the preference of the powerful countries to follow economic and military coercion rather than diplomacy and dialogue to influence the policies of other states. In this modern era of conflict, the use of force and defiance of international law has become a new global norm. Israeli war crimes in Gaza, attacks on Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iran, and Qatar, the EU’s provocation of Russia through Ukraine, US bombardment of Iran and its continuous attacks on Venezuelan ships – in violation of international law and human rights — and the India-Pakistan war indicate the rising use of hard power around the world. This suggests that the fraying international order will further deteriorate.
The world is currently perceived as facing a new Cold War between the US-led Western alliance and the China-Russia-led Eastern bloc. This trend will continue to persist in the coming year. Although President Trump is portraying himself as a deal breaker. His recently announced National Security Strategy (NSS) is also part of his deal-breaking approach, as he has diverged from the conventional US approach towards Russia and the EU. He apparently seeks to establish cordial relations with Russia and has demonstrated his desire to rid the United States of the burden of EU security. However, the deep-rooted influence of the Israeli and European lobbies in the US establishment will not let President Trump materialize this ambition. Therefore, the world is likely to continue to witness an intensified Cold War in the coming year, as all three superpowers will decide global dynamics in their sphere of influence.
The trade war between China and the United States will also continue to dominate global markets. The US President’s tariff offensive against China deteriorated the already-struggling relations between the two sides in 2025. However, President Trump has repeatedly indicated that he seeks a deal with China. The two sides signed a deal in October 2025. However, the core issues that drive tensions between Washington and Beijing persist, making the deal harder to deliver for a peaceful year ahead. China has significant leverage over the United States due to its monopoly on rare earth minerals. This leverage led to its successful pushback against Trump’s trade offensive against China. Moreover, Beijing is currently the largest trading partner of 70 nations and is widely recognized as a reliable and stable ally, unlike Donald Trump. Therefore, Washington would face severe economic backlash from China if President Trump continued to pursue protectionist policies against China and its other trade allies.
Middle East Volatility and the Expanding Influence of Middle Powers
The situation in the Middle East is also unstable. Although President Trump and some Muslim leaders have celebrated the so-called 20-point peace plan for Gaza. However, the situation on the ground in the Middle East is quite contrary. Israel has violated the ceasefire more than 738 times since October 10. People around the world, especially in the Middle East, are not happy about this peace plan. This will not only increase complications for the US President but will also lead to political unrest in the Muslim countries, especially those contributing troops to the International Stabilization Force. This demonstrates that the world in 2026 will be more volatile and unstable than it is in the year 2025. All these circumstances will provide middle powers with more influence and power in the coming year. The United States, China, and Russia will have to increase their influence over these states to gain strategic leverage over the others.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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