Showing posts with label US war on Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US war on Iran. Show all posts

Friday, June 28, 2019

Trump Vs. Trump On Iran

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by John Feffer
The ongoing conflict with Iran showcases all the reasons why Donald Trump remains a hit with his base.
First of all, the guy tells a ripping yarn. While critics of U.S. policy drone on about complex agreements with opaque acronyms, Trump boils down the problem to a TV episode with a ticking clock. The bad guys shot down a U.S. drone. The good guys prepare to strike back. But the greatest president of all decides at the last moment — with only ten minutes to spare — to take his finger off the trigger and save the day. Or, at least, that’s how The Donald tells it.
Trump also presents himself as all things to all people. He threatened Iran with war. But he also promised to restart negotiations with the country. He opposed the nuclear agreement that the Obama administration, among others, patiently negotiated. But he offered (however implausibly) to put a better one in its place. He decided to rescind his authorization of airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure. But he also went ahead with cyberattacks and additional economic sanctions, all of which add up to a war with Iran in everything but name.
What should ordinarily be a defect — Trump’s rapid oscillation in positions — becomes a virtue in this era of instantaneous news. The country hangs on the man’s every tweet. Which Trump will emerge the winner in the battle among the president’s many avatars: Killer Trump, Dealmaker Trump, Madman Trump, Joker Trump? The man keeps you guessing, which is an indispensable element in this age of infotainment.
In the end, Trump has successfully made politics all about himself. It’s not just that he has asserted executive privilege over the legislative branch. It’s not even that he’s ignored the advice of his cabinet and concentrated decision-making power in his own hands.
It’s worse than that.
When it comes down to a potential war with Iran — or one with North Korea or Venezuela or China — even Trump’s opponents are left rooting for…Trump. They hope that, in the end, the better angels — or at least the more opportunistic ones — of the president’s nature will prevail over the lesser angels of John Bolton and Mike Pompeo.
The only person who can stop Trump, in other words, is Trump. This is not democratic politics. This is the politics of the man on the white horse, of the caudillo, of the generalissimo.
It’s bad enough that Trump dominates politics. He also dominates the political imagination.
The Triumph of Conflict
Barack Obama is an intellectual. Even when he waxed martial, he did so in an intellectual way, like when he supported the just war doctrine in his Nobel Peace Prize address. Obama was judicious to a fault. He went back and forth on issues as he weighed the various pros and cons. He didn’t push ahead with a program unless he thought it had a very good chance of success and widespread support.
Trump is another creature altogether. He doesn’t think through problems. He thinks around them. He keeps the nation updated on the various unformed ideas in his head on a regular basis. The result of this process is endless conflict. There’s the conflict of positions inside Trump. But there are also the conflicts that Trump generates with everyone around him — the appointees that he’s always on the verge of firing, the institutions of government, large swaths of the American population, a variety of international institutions, and virtually every major country of the world.
In the same way that Marx turned Hegel on his head, Trump has turned Marx on his head. The president wages class struggle virtually every minute against his enemies, which are essentially the 99 percent (of the United States and of the world).
Of course, there’s another way of looking at this triumph of conflict. For all his invocations of a golden age of the past, Donald Trump is actually a Futurist.
Consider, for example, these lines from the Futurist manifesto, written by the poet Filippo Tommaso Marinetti:
We want to glorify war — the only cure for the world — militarism, patriotism, the destructive gesture of the anarchists, the beautiful ideas which kill, and contempt for woman… Beauty exists only in struggle. There is no masterpiece that has not an aggressive character. Poetry must be a violent assault on the forces of the unknown, to force them to bow before man.
Trump might have a personal aversion to military conflict. He opted out of the Vietnam War. He once claimed, to Howard Stern, that having sex with lots of women, and risking sexually transmitted diseases, was somehow more courageous than going into battle. He has occasionally voiced skepticism about U.S. military engagements overseas, such as the Iraq War.
But the man pursues all sorts of other wars. He has declared war on undocumented Americans. He is battling Congress over various investigations (and, occasionally, legislation as well). He has declared trade wars against allies and adversaries alike. He continues to struggle against Hillary Clinton, however ludicrous that might seem.
And, of course, he has bombed Syria (twice), considered air strikes against Iran and North Korea, contemplated military action against Venezuela, and blocked congressional efforts to end U.S. military support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen.
Like his Futurist forebears, Trump is aggressive, misogynistic, hyper-patriotic. Governance, for him, is a violent assault on the forces of the unknown in order to force them to bow before none other than Trump himself. As Marinetti once wrote about art in his manifesto, Trump approaches politics as if it were “nothing but violence, cruelty, and injustice.”
Marinetti penned his Futurist manifesto in 1909. His movement applauded Italy’s entry into World War I. The Futurists who survived that war would eventually rally around the political figure who best embodied the movement’s fascination with militarism, masculinity, and modernity. In their support for Benito Mussolini, the Futurists morphed into fascists.
There but for the grace of America’s remaining democratic institutions goes Trump.
Countering Trump
Fact-checking Donald Trump is truly a Herculean effort: as in the Augean stables, there’s always more bullshit to deal with. And the fact-checkers are largely preaching to the converted. Itemizing all of Trump’s mischaracterizations of Iran, for instance, is like pointing out all the ways that Star Trek departs from the rules of verisimilitude. Fans don’t care. And everyone else doesn’t listen.
Nor is it possible to out-Trump Trump. He can’t be outshouted. He can’t be out-insulted. He can’t be shamed into doing anything, for he lacks shame, and he can’t be goaded either, since he bristles at any attempt to push him in one direction or another.
Some world leaders have opted for flattery. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, for instance, has gone out of his way to praise Trump’s leadership, statesmanship, and all-around sagacity. That hasn’t prevented the U.S. president from squeezing South Korea hard on trade and the financial contributions that Seoul makes to the maintenance of U.S. troops on the Korean peninsula. And Trump hasn’t pulled off an agreement with North Korea yet. So, flattery will only get you so far.
What’s left, for those who can’t stomach flattery, is storytelling.
Trump, remember, tells a compelling story. Those who want to prevent a war with Iran have to tell a better story, without technical terms, without acronyms, without the usual inside-the-Beltway vocabulary. Such a story should do an end run around Trump’s reduction of politics to what’s going on inside his own head — by not mentioning Trump at all.
It’s also not a story about Iran. A deep vein of suspicion runs through the American public about the country that held U.S. hostages for 444 days four decades ago. As with North Korea, most Americans simply don’t care about the fate of Iranians.
Rather, this must be a story of what has made America (occasionally) great — Nixon shaking hands with Mao, Reagan shaking hands with Gorbachev, George W. Bush setting up an AIDS relief program in Africa, Republican senators (other than John McCain) supporting rapprochement with Vietnam. It’s the story that puts a Republican face on diplomacy. It’s a story and a set of visuals that should attract support from precisely the base that speaks to Trump. It’s a story that would not look out of place as a PSA on Fox News.
To prevent a war with Iran, you can’t fight Trump’s fire and fury with an equal but opposite fire and fury. But you can just possibly win with a ripping yarn about peace.
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JOHN FEFFER

John Feffer is the the editor of LobeLog and the director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies. He is also the author, most recently, of Aftershock: A Journey into Eastern Europe's Broken Dreams (Zed Books). He is also the author of the dystopian novel Splinterlands (Dispatch Books) and its soon-to-be-released sequel Frostlands. He is a former Open Society fellow, PanTech fellow, and Scoville fellow, and his articles have appeared in The New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Review of Books, Salon, and many other publications.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Will American Belligerence Against Iran lead to War?

The empire is at its old game of aggression again and the stakes have been getting higher since the JCPOA was shredded by Donald Trump in 2018 and a lot more higher since the US led Warsaw Conference was held in February 2019 in Warsaw, Poland in which US secretary of state and Iran hawk Mike Pompeo said that the purpose of the conference was to focus on “Iran’s influence and terrorism in the region”. Due to objections from several European nations to form a global coalition, the Conference morphed into the basis for the Arab-Israeli pact against Iran. The Arab coalition of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt are expected to assist and fund the war.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) known as the Iran nuclear deal, is an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program reached in July 2015, between Iran, the five permanent members (P5) of the UN Security Council + Germany. It was hailed as a landmark nuclear agreement under the watch of Barack Obama. However, since it’s inception Israel has been criticizing it as not going far enough and has managed to convince Trump that Iran must be militarily and economically stripped to the bare bones. Trump relented.
Israel, a small country with massive geopolitical ambitions with an arsenal of nuclear bombs and high-tech missiles has been clamoring for several years that Iran is the biggest threat to its survival since America removed the Iraq threat in 2003. Israel seeks global political, geographic and economic hegemony for itself through an American primacy that has been shaped by an economic system that is fully controlled by a neo-conservative platform for over a century. The system is based on a dominant currency, the US dollar, the Federal Reserve banking, United Nations, IMF and World Bank.
Thanks to the system, America has emerged as a mighty aggressive, war machine during the past two World Wars, in Far East Asia, S. America, Africa and the Middle East. During the past hundred years the only country that has managed to defeat America was Vietnam supported by the Communist system of the Soviet Union and China but lamentably America is still unwilling to learn from its mistake puffed up by the arrogance that its cold war policies ended the Soviet Union and that, by its current economic policies of trade tariffs, China will eventually meet the same fate as the Soviet Union.
Israel and the Saudi, Egyptian and UAE Arabs at their best are cowardly and atrocious nations that only, without shame, kill unarmed and defenseless men, women and children in Palestine, Gaza and Yemen.
The twenty first century is shaping out to be different than the past century where the old geopolitical players were weak. Russia has emerged different than an economically weakened Soviet Union by its failure in Afghanistan. China was a far inferior economic power only a couple decades ago but has emerged as one equal to or superior than the USA. In the context of then and now, the world order is slipping from the American control but neither America nor Israel are accepting this fact.
While anticipating for several years that both America and Israel are planning a war against it, Iran has taken the measures for protecting itself against the aggression and no longer a nation that can be easily defeated. Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, or an Arab country splintered by tribalism and ruled by corrupt and weak leadership. It not only possesses a strong military, navy and missiles and battleground hardened in Iraq and Syria but it is also strategically located in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf overlooking the strategic Strait of Hormuz and by virtue of its proxy Houthis in Yemen, Iran is also able to control the strategic Bab-al-Mandab (door of tears) at the exit of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Hopefully Israel has also not forgotten the lesson Iran’s proxy Hezbollah taught Israel during 35 days in July 2006. Iran and Russia have also collaborated and stalemated the US in Syria during 2011-2018.
For one Trump may have miscalculated Iran’s capability for defending itself against aggression. Moreover, he had hoped that by shredding the JCPOA, Iran would agree to re-negotiate more stringent nuclear and missile regime limitations and that by oil sanctions it would economically strangulate Iran. Thus far Iran has resisted. Iran’s foreign minister Javid Zarif had aptly stated “while Iran has mastered the art of playing chess, the Americans are just learning to play the game of draughts”.
So far, Trump and his Iran hawks John Bolton and Mike Pompeo have failed in all their efforts to placate Iran. Whether it has been the threat of USS Abraham Lincoln’s presence in the area, the downing of the American hawk drone by Iran, the “cocked and loaded threat on Iran”, Japan’s Shinzo Abe’s recent efforts to bring Iran to the American table or the suspicious attacks on the oil tankers in Fujairah and Gulf of Oman, Iran is not being intimidated by America.
Will America blink or will it be Iran? Though Trump relented to hawks he is now trapped between the proverbial rock and a hard place – the choice between two unsatisfactory choices. While Trump is politically gibbering that he does not want war with Iran, it seems that war is the choice being thrust upon him. Given the circumstances, it is highly unlikely that Iran will blink.
Trump and Netanyahu are only playing out the game in the hope that Iran can be intimidated to come to the negotiating table or failing which the aggression will start with a major operation against Iran. The accusations are only a prelude. It literally seems that Iran is inviting the US, Israel and the Arab coalition for a showdown. Will they take on the challenge? If they do, they’re damned with an Armageddon in the region and if they don’t, they’re damned as “the empire that failed”. Certainly, Iran does not seem to be bluffing. It holds three aces.
Having failed to muster global support from allies at the Warsaw Conference and more than unlikely from the United Nations, America can only hope to gain support from China by offering it a trade deal in exchange or from Russia by some business deal. Whatever, Israel will, in frustration, force a war against Iran in collusion with Arab coalition support knowing well that America will have no choice but to get involved.
The reader of this article would be interested in Mr. Munir Akram’s opinion “War with Iran” published in the Dawn of June 23, 2019 in which his closing remarks are “Over the past 40 years, several ‘independent’ Muslim states have been progressively attacked, subverted and neutralised: Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan. If Iran is militarily and economically destroyed, who is next? https://www.dawn.com/news/1489907/war-with-iran
Gulam Asgar Mitha is currently retired in Calgary, Canada having worked as a project, process and technical safety engineer in Canada, USA, Libya, France, Pakistan and Kuwait. He was born in Mumbai soon after partition immigrated with family in 1951 to Karachi. After schooling proceeded to USA for further studies and obtained Bachelors degree in Chemical Engineering and Masters in Economics.