From Asmara to Cairo; Saudi Arabia's Attempt to Build Coalition Against Yemen Remained Fruitless

Saudi Arabia's attempt to create a regional backing against Yemen has faced serious considerations in Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti.

AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Recent developments in Yemen, including the Yemeni armed forces' control over the country's western coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, have confronted the Horn of Africa region with new challenges. Challenges toward which the countries of this region have different approaches, but what has so far appeared evident is Saudi Arabia's failure to mobilize these countries in support of itself.

According to a report by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, among these, Eritrea's position is of particular importance. Osman Saleh, the country's Foreign Minister, announced on September 11 that there is no military solution for involvement in Yemen and called on the Red Sea coastal countries, including Yemen—which he described as a country without a single government controlling its entire territory—to cooperate with one another to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

At the same time, Eritrea's Foreign Ministry accused the UAE of pursuing imperialist policies in the region in cooperation with the Zionist regime and said that Abu Dhabi has taken its commercial interests in the Red Sea beyond limits. Osman Saleh also called on the Red Sea basin countries—considered an indirect reference to Egypt—to be vigilant about Abu Dhabi's strategic objectives of expanding control over Horn of Africa ports and strengthening its presence in this region.

Eritrea's Position and the Importance of Bab al-Mandab

Asmara's position is particularly important because the Yemeni armed forces have expanded their control over islands near the Eritrean coast, including Jabal Zuqar Island. Last year, media, citing analysis of satellite images, suggested the possibility that the UAE and the Zionist regime had built a 2,000-meter runway on this island.

The importance of Eritrea's position also increases given previous reports of cooperation between the Ansarullah movement and Eritrean officials.

Regardless of what Western media claim about Eritrea's connection with Iran and the country's approach to the Tehran-led axis, Asmara's policies—including ending its partnership with Abiy Ahmed's government after the end of the Tigray war in November 2022—have in practice come into conflict with regional and international domination projects led by the UAE and the Zionist regime and with silent American support.

These policies, which emphasize national sovereignty, could turn Eritrea into an important actor in the current dispute between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, especially in one of the most important arenas of this dispute for Eritrea, namely the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Djibouti; Emphasis on Freedom of Navigation

Djibouti also, on September 13, emphasized its clear commitment to the principle of guaranteeing freedom of navigation and the security of international waterways and once again called for a political, comprehensive, and sustainable solution to the Yemen crisis.

Only a few hours after this position, reports were published about the Yemeni armed forces' control over two strategic islands in the Red Sea. A development according to which these forces are only 34 kilometers away from the American base "Camp Lemonnier" in Djibouti, and this base is now within the range of drones and missiles of the Yemeni armed forces.

This base, considered the largest American military base in Africa, is the most important starting point for any possible American military action against Yemen. This is while previous reports by Western media indicated Djibouti's opposition in several cases to the use of "Camp Lemonnier" by American forces to carry out attacks against Yemen.

Simultaneously with the US government's announcement to Saudi Arabia that it currently has no plan for direct intervention against Yemen, reports about America's military role in Djibouti have also increased. A role described as focused on helping defend the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

According to these reports, the arrangements for the presence of American forces, determined by the host country, have imposed restrictions on the mission of these forces and limited their activity to counterterrorism operations. As a result, there is no possibility of opening a direct military confrontation against Yemen from Djibouti's soil.

Such caution on America's part could place Djibouti in a difficult position, because Saudi Arabia has been one of this country's most important allies in recent years.

Bin Salman's Trip to Cairo; Riyadh's Closed Horizon

In such circumstances, the recent trip of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Cairo is also considered a sign of the narrowing of Riyadh's options, especially given Egypt's and Eritrea's considerations about participating in a military war against Yemen.

Cairo's approach in this regard is based on the assessment that creating a permanent crisis center in the southern Red Sea could continue for years, and Saudi Arabia's military capability, even with the support of friendly forces, will not necessarily be able to easily end this dispute in its favor.

Bin Salman's trip to Egypt took place only a few hours after the Saudi Crown Prince held a confidential meeting in Riyadh with a number of senior military commanders at the US Central Command (CENTCOM). This trip was also accompanied by speculation about the existence of a plan for Egypt's participation alongside Saudi Arabia, even in the field of intelligence exchange.

However, it appears that Cairo is pursuing a completely different approach. Although Egypt may also place some limited operational measures on its agenda to satisfy Saudi Arabia.