Will Turkey attack the Kurds in eastern Euphrates?

By Ramin Hossein Abadian

TEHRAN - The eastern Euphrates, which is under the control of the U.S. allies, has taken the attention of most regional actors in Syria. 

The region has the largest and most important oil fields, particularly al-Omar filed, which before 2011 produced around 300 barrels of oil per day.

Al-Raqqah, alone, has 70 percent of Syria’s water resources, not to mention its fertile land for agricultural products. The area accounts for one-third of Syria’s fertile land and plays a big role in Syrian food and economy. 

Al-Raqqah, also called Raqqa, is a city in Syria located on the northeast bank of the Euphrates River, about 160 kilometres east of Aleppo. It is located 40 kilometres east of the Tabqa Dam, Syria's largest dam. 

The area also contains 90 percent of Syria’s gas and oil revenue and over half of the country’s wheat and cotton. Deir ez-Zor province, in eastern Euphrates, is the second most prominent Syrian province in terms of area (about 33,000 square kilometers). Most of the Syrian oil production comes from these areas, and it also is the richest source of Syria's gas. 

After the Syrian army defeated terrorists in various parts of the country, especially on the outskirts of Damascus and in the south, and made advances in the depths of As-Suwayda, two regions are still not in the control of the Syrian government. One is the province of Idlib that based on Putin and Erdogan agreement it is kept a weapons-free area, despite the attacks carried out on the Syrian army's positions there by the terrorists. Some Syrian military experts, including the Brigadier General Hamdan believe that the Syrian army will soon embrace Idlib too. 

General Hamdan said, “Terrorist activities that resulted in the deaths of 18 Syrian soldiers and the failure of other players to subside terrorism have put a halt to the ceasefire in Idlib. Thus, the final operation by the Syrian army is approaching fast.

Syrian army, as we have repeatedly said, continues on the path of self-restraint, but it seems the purpose of the moves is to bring all parties to war in Idlib, be it with a political reason, for exploiting the military movements of the Syrian army politically or with the aim of targeting more Syrian army personnel, militarily.  

The goal of the Russian moves in the next few weeks before the coming New Year is to gain more international support for the region in bringing an end to the daily activities of terrorists.  And that is only possible when everyone takes responsibility for their own action. In a clearer sense, provokers must be put in a bottleneck and pushed aside. 

The U.S., the greatest supporter of terrorism, is the only actor that gets benefit from terrorist acts in Idlib, and therefore is seeking to defeat the military victories of the Syrian army and the political achievements of Damascus.”

Syrian actors’ view of eastern Euphrates 

The other area, out of the Syrian army’s control, is the eastern Euphrates that all actors of the Syrian affairs are keeping an eye on. This region has its own story. The other day, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish President warned the U.S. and said “no one can turn Turkey into their own backyard.”

Turkey's Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who was attending Halifax International Security Forum in Canada, expressed indignation at photos showing U.S. troops dining with Kurdish militants near the Turkish border in Syria and said, “We expect U.S. to stop cooperation with the YPG terror group as promised.”

“These photos have found wide coverage in our media and disturbed our people. They tarnished the image of the U.S. and its army... for the Turkish public. It is unacceptable for the U.S. to provide arms and ammunition by plane and trucks to the YPG terrorist group even when Daesh has been neutralized to a large extent. We will not allow the formation of a terrorist corridor on our southern border,” Akar said.

It seems that north-east of Syria, where the U.S.-backed Kurds are present, will face new developments, as Ankara has threatened to intervene in the area, and Damascus has announced to send the Syrian forces to east of Euphrates after the liberation of Idlib. 

The Syrian newspaper Al-Watan has quotes the Syrian opposition as saying, “Turkey intends to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, in Tel Avia, located on the southern border of Turkey, where these Kurds are supported by the U.S.”

Turkey has told armed groups in Idlib, and in the western and northern Aleppo that they are ready to move to the east of Euphrates to confront the Kurdish forces who are in control of the area. Erdogan is seeking an invasion of Kobai as a starting point for moving to other parts of eastern Euphrates to dominate the border areas in the second phase.

In October, the Turkish army struck Kurdish positions in eastern Euphrates, coinciding with the statement made by Turkish President Erdogan on the determination of his country to overcome Kurdish forces in eastern Euphrates.
This is while the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, SDF, in northern Syria also stepped in and patrol the area which invited Erdogan criticism, saying that that joint U.S.-Kurdish patrols just over the Turkish border with Syria were unacceptable and that he expected U.S. President Donald Trump to stop them. 

Iran-Syria-Russia axis 

Meanwhile, Damascus considers the military presence of the U.S. and Turkey illegitimate in the country. The Syrian army has announced that the next step will be eastern Euphrates after the liberation of Idlib. If the area east of the Euphrates were not given to the Syrian government, this will led to the confrontation between the Syrian army and U.S.-backed.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. “We're going to deal with it by two options: the first one we started now opening doors for negotiations, because the majority of them [SDF] are Syrians. If not, we're going to resort ... to liberating those areas by force”, Assad said.

Moscow, on the other hand, considers the U.S. actions in eastern Euphrates to be an attempt to create a region separate from Syria, and considers it unacceptable. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Oct. 12, 2018: “In eastern Euphrates, the situation is such that there are inevitable actions. And the United States seeks to exploit this land through its Syrian allies, in particular the Kurds, to create a region similar to that of the country.”

But Iran has consistently stated that the presence of the United States is in the eastern Euphrates as an occupation. Iran's President Hassan Rouhani during the Tehran summit saw the post-Idlib phase against the Syrian army as the U.S. forces in the east of Euphrates.

Tehran summit to neutralize US regional coalition: Expert

Tehran, Sept 7, IRNA - An international affairs expert says the Tehran summit of the presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey can neutralize the coalition formed in the region against Iran's regional policies and carry a message that Iran is not alone in Syria.

Morteza Makki, an expert on international affairs said the tripartite summit of the heads of state of Iran, Russia and Turkey, is the third of its kind to be held within the framework of the Astana process to coordinate efforts aimed at restoring security and stability to Syria.

Unlike previous round of talks held in various cities of the world over the past few years which failed to end the Syria crisis, the negotiations held in Astana with participation of three guarantor states - Iran, Russia and Turkey- have so far helped the process of establishing peace in Syria.

The summit assumes extra importance given the fact that the Syrian province of Idleb, as the last region controlled by the terrorist organizations, has come under siege and countdown has started for its liberation.

Considering that efforts are underway to minimize civilian casualties during operations to liberate the province, it is important for the three guarantor states to make last coordination to ensure that peace process would enter its final stage and this issue tops the agenda of the Tehran summit meet.

Makki maintained 'Syria issue is not the sole axis of Tehran talks. The three countries of Iran, Russia and Turkey have numerous points in common the most important of which is that all three states have been sanctioned by the United States. The trio will try to minimize the impacts of sanctions through trilateral cooperation.'

He said the trend of cooperation among the three countries is of importance because by devising a financial mechanism they can somehow decrease the impacts of the sanctions. 

On Iran's role in eliminating terrorism in the region, Makki said the three countries through their coalition have taken strides in the fight against terrorism and in restoring stability to the region to the dismay of the Arab-US coalition. They have also prevented Baghdad and Damascus from falling into the hands of Daesh terrorists. This was a victory for Tehran and a big disappointment for them.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey are to gather together in Tehran Friday for exchange of views on the process of fighting terrorism and establishing security in Syria.