'Popular sentiment in Pakistan remains sympathetic to Tehran'

Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN - Imran Khan led government in Pakistan has been in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to tide over an economic crisis. It has also approached its allies China and Saudi Arabia for funds, which has however raised a few eyebrows at home. It remains to be seen whether Khan will be able to resuscitate the flailing economy without compromising on country’s independent foreign policy and whether he will be able to strike a delicate balance in relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Farrukh K Pitafi is an Islamabad based senior journalist, political analyst and talk show host. With over 20 years of television and print journalism, he is known for his distinct voice on global and local policy issues. In an interview to Tehran Times, Mr. Pitafi speaks about Pakistan’s economic crisis, and Imran Khan-led government’s foreign policy issues.
Following are the excerpts:
Q. Imran Khan has inherited a flailing economy that needs to be revived with funds. Do you believe Khan will be able to tide through this economic crisis?
A: Pakistan is no stranger to economic crises. We have endured many in the past and have always survived them. This too will pass. But history is no excuse for the lack of progress on the economic front. Two economic powerhouses that sit next to Pakistan, China and India, achieved their success in past few decades right before our eyes. So the country has to take a serious look at what ails its economy.
Immediately after assuming the office of Prime Minister Imran Khan constituted a set of taskforces meant to fix the country’s ailing economy. These taskforces include a taskforce on restructuring of civil service, one on austerity and restructuring of government, another on telecommunication. As the country’s priority is macroeconomic stabilization this is a good call to cut wasteful expenditures. Once that is achieved government can look at long term measures.
So far PM Khan’s cabinet choices, team building and list of priorities gives me hope that he can deliver on economy.
Q. After his second visit to Riyadh since taking over as the PM, Khan said he was sad about the Jamal Khashoggi incident but Pakistan was 'desperate' for funds. How would you decode these words?
A: While Khashoggi incident shook the world, in Pakistan it barely moved the needle. For reasons you have to look at the 17 years of fighting terrorism and the loss it incurred. Over eighty thousand dead, at least a few of whom were journalists. So, the entire country is desensitized to such controversies.
Pakistan’s economic condition, as we have established earlier, is really dire. Hence the country had to look wherever it could get help. When PM Khan chose to go to Saudi Arabia for the second time participants were dropping out of the Riyadh investment conference in solidarity with the slain journalist. But that only meant more visible opening for Pakistan to highlight its economic cause. The country availed the opportunity.
Q. Relations between Pakistan and its new all-weather ally China have improved considerably with CPEC, which has however distanced Washington from Islamabad. How do you view these changing political dynamics?
A: Pakistan-China relationship has and will go from strength to strength. But Washington is displaying a characteristic lack of imagination. This is not the age of cold wars.
If anything, Trump’s surprise victory should have convinced the Washington elite that the traditional paranoid worldview has no place in the realities of our time. That the world belongs to interdependence and collective security. Ergo there is no zero sum game between China and the US.
A hard-learnt lesson for Pakistan is that it should not build one relationship at the cost of another. The country has to take every relationship seriously and on merit. This is a country that managed to defy the western and Arab pressures during Iran-Iraq war and maintained a healthy friendship with Tehran despite being heavily invested in West’s war in Afghanistan against Soviet occupation.
When it comes to two of its closest allies, China and the U.S., Pakistan can maintain a healthy balance between the two and can even function once again as a bridge between them if such a need arises.
Q. U.S. unilateral withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal and diktat to countries to bring Iranian oil imports to zero has drawn angry reactions across the world. What's the popular opinion in Pakistan's intelligentsia circles regarding it and regarding Trump's policies?
A: Popular sentiment remains sympathetic to Tehran. Unity among Muslims and defiance of foreign inflicted suffering in the Muslim countries are some of the ideas that find a lot of traction here. Policies of governments can change but one thing cannot. The hearts of Pakistani citizens and Iranians are one. And I do not exaggerate.
As for intelligentsia, the question is of the paradigm every individual uses to view the world. There are those who are given to realpolitik. And those who think a better world is possible. To the latter, every setback offers a new opportunity.
After the unilateral withdrawal of the U.S., Iran can either wait for the end of Trump’s presidency or renegotiate the deal. The second option might be useful as it may offer some immediate relief to the beautiful people of Iran. But here is one fact of life that does not escape this scribe’s attention. A nation of such brilliance and full of competent people cannot be kept back for long. That is a given.
Q. According to reports, Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project that was shelved by Nawaz Sharif government in 2015 apparently under Saudi pressure will be revived soon. How critical can it be in addressing Pakistan's energy crisis?
A: Pakistan is bound by international law and treaty obligations. Its economic volatility weakens its hand diplomatically and makes it prone to the U.S. pressures. Activation of IP gas pipeline will remain a pipedream till the time one of two things do not materialize – ease of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Pakistan regaining economic autonomy.
Remember Pakistan is faced with mounting Indian propaganda and while New Delhi uses its diplomatic muscle and mysterious influence on Trump and Washington elite, it unleashes its onslaught whenever Islamabad tries to behave proactively. India exploited the name of the then Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline to seek nuclear deal as a concession from the U.S. and conveniently abandoned the project. Nevertheless, in view of waiver given to eight countries including India and China, Pakistan should use diplomacy to find a working solution on IP. The project is of great economic significance to Pakistan.
Q. In the initial few weeks Khan had reaffirmed his commitment to open a new chapter of relations with India but the overtures didn't last too long. What makes India-Pakistan relationship so complex?
A: India is known for its great diplomatic skill, imagination and economic might. Despite that influence sadly a baser instinct has seized control of the policy making apparatus in the country and stymied all imagination.
Right now it is preparing for the next general elections and it seems unlikely that it will be able to reciprocate any overtures from Islamabad. Pakistan waits for the day when the election cycles are over.
As for the complexity of the relationship, many books have been written on the matter and I will not be able to do justice to it in this limited space. Two issues, however stand out: cold war mentality and denial of each other’s identity.
Q. Do you see 'Naya Pakistan' (New Pakistan) taking shape under Imran Khan, the Pakistan envisioned by Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Sir Mohammad Iqbal?
A: Every century has its own dynamics. Pakistan is bound to follow the path laid out by the founder of the nation, Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Sir Mohammad Iqbal being the country’s national poet has special place in people’s imagination.
But as time passes, realities of life and of political world change. Many institutional concepts have changed or evolved since 1947. So the idea is to take the golden principles of the country’s founding fathers and adapt them to present times. Ergo, Naya (new) Pakistan.
The present government has been in power for roughly three months. In this duration what to talk of rebuilding a nation a new house is not finished. So we will have to wait and see. I am very hopeful.

Pakistan PM’s Saudi affair likely to backfire

By Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN - Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia flourished during the previous government headed by Nawaz Sharif, primarily due to his personal business interests in the Kingdom and friendly association with members of the Saudi royal family. Despite the criticism at home, Sharif never missed an opportunity to eulogize the Saudi rulers and support their wrongs.

During Sharif’s tenure as Prime Minister, while Pakistan’s ‘love affair’ with Riyadh blossomed, relations with Tehran plummeted. When the ambitious gas pipeline project was shelved by the Sharif government in 2015 under the Saudi pressure, some experts couldn’t resist the temptation of reading obituary of Iran-Pakistan friendship. It seemed game over.

But the political transition in Islamabad this year rekindled hopes of a new foreign policy taking shape in Islamabad under the populist premier Imran Khan.  

In his victory speech, Khan made it categorically clear that he would like to strengthen ties with allies in the Middle East, including Iran and Saudi Arabia. During his first meeting with the Iranian envoy to Islamabad, Khan reiterated his desire to bolster ties with Tehran and revive important projects that had been put on the backburner by the previous political dispensation, including the gas pipeline.  

Experts termed it a “significant shift” in Pakistan’s foreign policy as his predecessor was seen overtly inclined towards stronger Pakistan-Saudi relations than Pakistan-Iran relations. Writing in The New Arab, Dr. Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui, a fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, said with the exit of Nawaz Sharif, Saudi Arabia had lost a reliable ally who never concealed his affection for the Gulf states in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular “for both personal and strategic reasons.”

It was widely believed that Khan’s approach will be different from Sharif and he will not yield to covert pressures from Washington or Riyadh. At least that is what appeared.
When Khan embarked on his first foreign trip to Saudi Arabia, keeping alive the tradition set by his predecessors, he sought to underscore that Riyadh will remain a priority for Pakistan’s foreign policy. Pertinently, it was President Hasan Rouhani of Iran, not King Salman of Saudi Arabia, who first extended an invitation to him.

But the faith in his leadership or his vision for ‘Naya Pakistan’ (new Pakistan) was not yet dented. The massive army of his followers on Twitter ensured that the public opinion, or at least the opinion of netizens, was firmly in favor of his leadership and policies.

As the country’s fiscal deficit inflated to 6.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017-2018 financial year, Khan panicked. He boarded the plane to Riyadh again, this time to seek funds. To woo the Saudi rulers, Khan said Riyadh had “always stood with Pakistan in difficult times and the Pakistani government and its people highly acknowledge it.”
Speculation had been put to rest. Khan was walking on the footsteps of his predecessor.

Following his second visit to Riyadh, Saudi regime announced $6 billion in financial support to Islamabad. It corresponded with the international outrage over the cold-blooded murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Even as many world leaders boycotted a Saudi investment conference, the so-called ‘Davos in the desert’, over Khashoggi's death, Khan attended the event.

On asked why he attended the conference when many other world leaders had turned down the invitation, Khan said Pakistan was “desperate” for Saudi loans to shore up the flailing economy.

“Unless we get loans from friendly countries or the IMF, we actually won't have in another two or three months enough foreign exchange to service our debts or to pay for our imports. So we're desperate at the moment,” he was quoted saying by the Middle East Eye.

Khan conceded that his immediate foreign policy priority was maintaining good relations with Saudi Arabia despite unprecedented outrage over Khashoggi’s murder by Saudi officials or the outcry over Saudi’s horrendous war crimes in Yemen.

Pakistan, which had previously maintained a neutral stance on Yemen war, might now be forced to support the Saudi onslaught there, some observers fear. If Khan can ignore a reprehensible crime like the killing of Khashoggi because of Saudi petrodollars, it can be expected that he will support the Saudi war crimes in Yemen also, although he has so far resisted doing that.

While Khan has adopted a strong and unwavering stance against the U.S., he seems to have succumbed to the temptation of being subservient to the Saudi kingdom, for funds. That is where he risks losing the goodwill he has earned back in Pakistan and in the international community.

At a time when the world is saying ‘no’ to Saudi Arabia, Khan is part of a tiny minority that is going against the tide. This approach will only isolate Pakistan and it has isolated Riyadh and Washington.

Being subservient to Saudi interests also means that Khan will be forced to toe his predecessor’s line on Iran. If that happens, Islamabad will again be forced to shelve the gas pipeline project, which is being described as critical to Pakistan’s energy requirements.

Khan is walking a tightrope. Wisdom lies in taking informed decisions in the best interests of Pakistan keeping in view long-terms goals. In the cricketing terminology, the cricketer-turned-prime minister could do well by playing the forward defensive shot rather than the mistimed stroke in the air.

Will Imran Khan Succeed In His Endeavours?

By: Kayhan Int’l

  
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan, after taking oath as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan, in his inaugural address on Sunday, called on the rich to start paying taxes and said Pakistan will begin an austerity drive to reduce debt, a campaign he will start by selling the fleet of bulletproof cars of his new office.

He also spoke about revamping the judiciary, reforming the educational and healthcare sectors, campaigning against corruption, devolution of power, providing jobs to youths and building dams to end the water crisis.

His election and his speeches have been keenly followed by the Pakistan’s immediate neighbours, that is, Afghanistan, India, China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran – all four of whom share long boundaries with Pakistan.

To Pakistan’s east is India, which has a 2,912 km border. To its west is Iran, which has a 909 km border with Pakistan. And to its northwest lies Afghanistan, with a shared border of 2,430 km. China is towards the northeast has a 523 km border with Pakistan.

The four said countries, along with other world nations, have congratulated Khan and he in turn has responded by saying that Pakistan will work to have the "best relations” with all its neighbours and hold talks to normalise ties, since without proper interaction, peace is not possible in the region. 

The question arises: How far his hand will be free to have peaceful relations with its neighbours in view of the fact that the security policy of Pakistan is largely determined by its powerful military, not by civilian governments. 

President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Dr. Hassan Rouhani, has extended his sincere congratulations to Prime Minister Imran Khan, expressing Tehran’s readiness to expand ties and cooperation with Islamabad so that the two countries would further improve bilateral relations.

At the centre of Pakistan-Iran relations is energy sector cooperation, particularly the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline worth about $7.5 billion that has remained stalled for years. 

On March 11, 2013, the then presidents of Iran and Pakistan, Dr. Mahmood Ahmadinejad and Asif Ali Zardari respectively, had performed the groundbreaking of IP at the joint border point to deliver 750 million cubic feet of Iranian natural gas per day to Pakistan by January 2015. But later that year when the pro-Saudi Nawaz Sharif took power as prime minister, the project was put off the table due to what his government called fear of international sanctions.

On 25th of February 2014, Pakistan’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Pakistan, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi claimed that if there were no international sanctions the project could be completed within three years.

But when in August 2017 after Sharif’s dismissal by the Judiciary Abbasi became caretaker premier, he did nothing practical in this regard, despite the fact on 14 July 2015 Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US—plus Germany) concluded Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to effectively end the economic sanctions.

It is interesting to see what practical steps Imran Khan will take in this regard, since the pipeline will be of enormous benefits to energy-starved Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called for dialogue with Pakistan in a letter to his newly-elected counterpart as the "only way forward” for peace between the two traditional rivals of the Subcontinent.

Khan for his part has offered an olive branch to India after his election victory last month, proposing talks to resolve the chronic question of divided Kashmir. 

China is firmly entrenched politically and economically in Pakistan, while the government of Afghanistan, a country which is under American occupation, ought to show greater independence in its decisions with Pakistan for solving the border and other outstanding problems including terrorism, since the countries will continue to be neighbours, long after the US retreats from the region.

Let us keep our fingers crossed in view of the winds of change blowing in Pakistan, and see whether Prime Minister Imran Khan succeeds or not in his endeavours, especially since the US is the villain of the piece and could be the main hurdle to regional peace and security.