Showing posts with label Hossein Mousavian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hossein Mousavian. Show all posts

Monday, July 08, 2019

Iran didn’t ask for this crisis, but it won’t stand for Trump’s bullying

Ramping up uranium enrichment was an inevitable response to US moves. A resolution is possible if the president changes course

**Hossein Mousavian is a former member of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team

The Arak reactor, which the Iranian government says will
be restored to its original design.


London, July 8, IRNA- Iran's ex-diplomat and former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian in an article wrote that ramping up uranium enrichment was an inevitable response to US moves, saying a resolution is possible if the president changes course.
He noted that in May 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was designed to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and had been agreed on after 12 years of exhaustive negotiations.
The US began to impose new economic and political sanctions, targeting not just various sectors of the Iranian economy, but the state’s most influential entities and actors. The imposition of these sanctions has virtually killed off the possibility of diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis and will have political consequences for not just Iran and the US, but the whole region. The current situation is extremely fraught, with Iran responding to aggressive actions by increasing its level of uranium enrichment.
The reemergence of hostility between Iran and the US – after a period of detente under Barack Obama – is one of the most urgent challenges to peace and security in the Middle East. And yet Trump’s belligerent policies have all but blocked conventional channels of diplomacy.
For one thing, cooperation requires dialogue between the countries’ respective military establishments in the region. US Central Command (Centcom) and Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps’ Quds force are both responsible for their countries’ extraterritorial operations. The IRGC’s designation as a terrorist organization – and Iran’s reciprocation against Centcom – has ended the possibility of negotiation between these two extremely influential state entities.
Next, in an unprecedentedly aggressive action, the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Iran’s ultimate source of authority according to its constitution, namely the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. Just as in the US the president has the authority to determine the general trajectory of foreign policy, the Supreme Leader in Iran is the one who sets the foreign policy of that country. Let’s not forget it was the supreme leader who allowed direct negotiation with the US over the nuclear issue in the first place. By sanctioning Ayatollah Khamenei, Trump has effectively killed off any chance of diplomatic rapprochement so long as he is in office. And it is not only the political leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei that is relevant here; he is also a religious scholar with millions of Shia Muslim followers – not just in Iran, but Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Bahrain and elsewhere.
In addition, last week, the treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said the Trump administration was looking to levy penalties against Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who trained in the US and is one of the most distinguished career diplomats in Iran’s recent history. Zarif has been compared to the popular prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who nationalized Iran’s oil industry and was deposed in 1953 in a coup organised by Britain and the US. Sanctioning Zarif is a mistake if the US ever wants to reengage with Iran, because he is in charge of the diplomatic channels that would be necessary to resolve this crisis. As Wendy Sherman, who led the US negotiating team in the talks that led to the 2015 accord, put it: “I can’t think of anything that makes less sense than sanctioning a key person who might actually be helpful if there is ever a dialogue with the US.”
Donald Trump with a signed executive order to increase
sanctions on Iran: ‘Deploying phony, rhetorical offers of talks
at the same time as imposing devastating sanctions will not
make Iran yield.’

The Iran nuclear deal is the most comprehensive agreement in the history of non-proliferation. As part of it, Iran accepted the most intrusive transparency measures and stringent limits on a nuclear programme ever demanded of a non-proliferation treaty member. What is more, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently judged that Iran was in full compliance with the terms and conditions of the JCPOA.
But where Iran has kept its end of the bargain, it has been rewarded with sanctions and additional pressure, and the benefits Iran was supposed to receive have been suddenly snatched away. The Trump administration made a decision to undermine the diplomatic legacy of Obama, but it may not have fully understood that in doing so it would also be obliterating any possibility of brokering its own diplomatic solution.
Trump has consistently offered to talk to Iranian officials, but his actions have been by far the most belligerent since the 1979 revolution. Deploying these phony, rhetorical offers of talks at the same time as imposing devastating sanctions is not a strategy that will make Iran yield.
Iran warned world powers in advance that if the other parties failed to meet their commitments, it would begin to reduce its obligations under the JCPOA. As a first step, over the past few days, it exceeded the 300kg limit on its uranium stockpiles. It has now also announced it will enrich uranium above the 3.67% limit specified by the deal. In addition, the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, has told his cabinet that the Arak reactor will be restored to its original design which, it was claimed, would be able to produce plutonium. It is crucial to note that this is the first time Iran has contravened the JCPOA. Ever since the Trump administration withdrew last year, Iran has been patiently waiting for the other parties involved in the nuclear agreement to honour their commitments, but the only outcome was the intensifying of pressures and sanctions. Iran cannot be expected to fully comply with the deal when others are failing to meet their obligations.
Trump single-handedly undid 12 years of intensive negotiations between Iran and world powers by withdrawing from the nuclear deal. He chose the dangerous path of hostile policies and actions and has increased the likelihood of yet another disastrous conflict in the Middle East. He does appear to recognise that a military confrontation with Iran would be catastrophic in every possible way. But he should also realise the fact that Iran will never give in to bullying.
If Trump genuinely wants to resolve this unnecessary, self-imposed crisis, he needs to make a swift strategic turnaround, one that would allow both countries to save face. Only then would credible diplomacy become possible once more.

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Expert: ME crisis not to be solved without regional powers' cooperation

Expert: ME crisis not to be solved without regional powers' cooperation


Tehran, May 31, IRNA - Iran's ex-diplomat and former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian wrote in article that various crises have put the Middle East in the worst conditions and the region's problems will not be resolved without regional powers' cooperation.
Terrorism is a menace in the Middle East so great that without collective efforts by all—and I stress—all state actors, it cannot be eradicated. The barrel of the gun is not the only means by which one can hope to eliminate terrorism; full-fledged cooperation by regional powers such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Iraq is needed to combat the threat, Mousavian wrote in his article which was released by 'The Cairo Review of Global Affairs'.
The full text of Mousavian's article is as follows:
There is copious academic research on why the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is mired in ethnic and sectarian violence. However, the specific question of what workable models can be presented that would not only be effective in ending conflicts but also bring sustainable peace to the region has not been tackled as of yet. What is needed in this discussion on peace and stability is a look back at historic examples of conflict resolution in the region, and an application today of what worked before. Asking which models can be presented to resolve conflicts in the MENA region naturally presupposes having some ideas as to what roles the more powerful regional actors such as Iran can play to assist in resolving the crises.
Of course, there are other powerful actors in the Middle East besides Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, which are actively involved in many crises and conflicts. However, a detailed discussion of Iran’s role is crucial because some Arab neighbors and Western powers have accused Iran of intervening in conflicts where the end result is negative for locals on the ground. In order to dispel myths about Iranian foreign policies and look for an effective way in which Iran can participate in peace-building projects, I will draw upon historical incidents of state-led violence and subsequent military invasions by the United States and coalition forces, and examine what lessons can be learned from those older experiences. Finally, I will apply a test model—which I call an “end-state” solution model that is structured around being a win-win path forward for all parties involved in negotiations—of how Iran can contribute to conflict resolution in the MENA region.
Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa take different forms and dimensions. From the longstanding Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, Saddam Hussein’s invasions of Iran and Kuwait, and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq to the emergence of terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra Front, and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the MENA region has been home to prolonged conflicts for much of the past seventy years. The current political climate in the region, which is animated by a culture of violence, behooves us as analysts and researchers to think about viable models of conflict resolution.
Let this be clear right at the outset that so far, the multi-state organizations in the region such as the Arab League and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC), once seen as appropriate instruments to resolve conflicts, have utterly failed to address those problems, including and most important of all: the rise and spread of terrorist organizations. Terrorism is a menace in the Middle East so great that without collective efforts by all—and I stress—all state actors, it cannot be eradicated. The barrel of the gun is not the only means by which one can hope to eliminate terrorism; full-fledged cooperation by regional powers such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Iraq is needed to combat the threat. If a regional power like Saudi Arabia funds and arms such groups—as unfortunately has been the case—while other regional powers like Iran and Iraq combat the most dangerous terrorist groups such as the Islamic State, the Middle East will never achieve peace and stability. Every country then, particularly the more influential ones, must participate in resolving conflicts in the Middle East. What is needed is a historical presentation of the dynamics of the region with a view toward how regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia can foster peace.
Iran’s Post-1979 Role and Interventions in the Middle East
Following 1979, Iran asserted its independence, projecting its power regardless of what the then-Cold War superpowers (the United States and the Soviet Union) wanted. Iran’s history with the United States in particular created a new climate of contest with America and U.S.-backed states across the region. The reasons for Iran’s diplomatic rise post-1979 are numerous, but some of the most important are connected to the collective memory of Islamic Republic leaders about U.S. actions in Iran. These actions were the Central Intelligence Agency’s ousting of the democratically elected government of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 and the undermining of Iran’s sovereignty during the Shah’s reign. Leadership in Tehran had more proof of American antipathy following 1979, when the United States supported Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi invasion of Iran and use of weapons of mass destruction against Iranians from 1980 to 1988, and held a forty-year-long, ill-advised policy of regime change in Iran.
These factors heavily influenced decision-making processes in Iran’s foreign policy in the post-1979 revolution era. For Iranians, it is not easy to forget the magnitude of death and destruction inflicted on Iran during Saddam’s invasion. During the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq enjoyed support from both Cold War blocks: the USSR-led communist nations and the U.S.-led capitalist countries. As a consequence of Saddam Hussein’s war of aggression, Iran suffered from massive destruction of physical capital (bridges, roads, schools, hospitals, etc.) as well as
human capital of about a million deaths and casualties.
Iran was the first country to condemn Saddam’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait and stood by Kuwait even though, along with other GCC members, Kuwait assisted Saddam Hussein with billions of dollars during Iraq’s war with Iran.
On that note, in my capacity as Iran’s ambassador to Germany (1990–1997), I was appointed by the late President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as his special envoy to meet then-Crown Prince Abdullah Al-Saud to build cooperative relations between the two states. Al-Saud and I had multiple rounds of private meetings along with President Rafsanjani’s son, Mehdi Hashemi-Rafsanjani, in Casablanca and Jeddah. The strategy of Iranian–Saudi friendship worked well, and shortly thereafter the relationship improved drastically. In effect, by dispatching me as his special envoy to meet with the Crown Prince Abdullah, President Rafsanjani conveyed the message to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf that Iran was willing to forgive—but not forget—the harm that they caused to Iran by their blind support of the brutal dictator Saddam Hussein. The zenith of the détente was when Iran signed a security agreement with Saudi Arabia in 1999—a rapid leap toward improving bilateral relationships that did not even occur during the Shah’s regime.
Due to American opposition to Iran’s efforts to develop peaceful nuclear technology, the nuclear talks between Iran and the EU3 (Germany, France, and the UK) failed in 2005. This failure precipitated the rise of conservative Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who won the presidential election in 2005. After a period of détente during the presidency of reformist Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005), Ahmadinejad’s new antagonistic rhetoric escalated tensions between Iran and the West and Western allies including Saudi Arabia.
By 2013, when the moderate President Hassan Rouhani came to power in Tehran, the first thing to which he committed himself was a platform of constructive dialogue with the outside world. He demonstrated his commitment to opening Iran by forging a nuclear deal with world powers, improving relations with the West, and calling upon the Arab neighbors—including Saudi Arabia—to heal past wounds. Indeed, once President Rouhani entered office, in one of his earliest press conferences he called Saudi Arabia “a friend and a brother". Yet, despite the change in Iran’s formerly bellicose foreign policy, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have escalated dramatically in recent years. Saudi Arabia’s execution of popular Shia cleric Nimr Al-Nimr and the subsequent attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran by radical rogue elements led to a severing of diplomatic relations between the two states in January 2016.
We see that over the course of the past thirty years, Iran has attempted numerous times to resolve issues of concern to both the United States and the influential countries in the region, namely Saudi Arabia, through dialogue and collaboration. Many of those attempts have been either scuttled by the United States or left without a proper response. In what follows, I will examine the numerous gestures of goodwill that Iran demonstrated which, had they been embraced by the United States and U.S. allies, could have determined a different trajectory for the region, one in which collaboration would have prevailed.
Iran’s Gestures of Goodwill

Historically, despite the fact that the United States and other international and regional powers supported Saddam’s war on Iran, Tehran made four important gestures of goodwill toward the United States.
First, in the course of the Lebanon hostage crisis (1982–1989), in which American and Western nationals were kept as hostages at different times, Iran played a significant role in their release. President Rafsanjani’s personal archives and documents that are now publicly available have revealed some important dimensions to the efforts that Iran made to release the hostages based on humanitarian grounds.
President Rafsanjani delegated three individuals to coordinate these efforts. Mahmoud Vaezi (who currently serves as the chief of staff for President Rouhani) and myself in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were delegated the responsibility of facilitating and coordinating the efforts that would lead to the hostages’ release and safe arrival in their home countries. The current Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who at that time was Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations, was delegated the responsibility of coordinating the efforts of their release. Yet despite our best efforts, Tehran never got a positive response from Washington for this help. In a private meeting in mid-1989, Rafsanjani told me that a favorable U.S. response to our gestures could have resulted in possibilities for rapprochement.
Second, the enormous logistical support that Iran extended to the United States to dismantle and topple the Taliban in Afghanistan was ignored or even met with the appellation of Iran being part of President George W. Bush’s “axis of evil.” Iran’s foreign policy entered a new phase with the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. For the first time in two decades of hostilities, Iran’s interests in the region seemed to converge with those of the United States, as both countries found defeating the Taliban to be a common goal that would serve their joint interests. In 1998, the Taliban forces in Afghanistan seized the Iranian consulate in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif and killed at least eight diplomats. Hence, shortly following the September 11 terrorist attacks, despite the fact that Iran was against the U.S. war on Afghanistan, the ground for cooperation between Iran and the United States on various security matters could have been fecund indeed. As Ryan C. Crocker, former American ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, describes in his meeting with an Iranian official in an article he wrote for the New York Times, “Immediately after 9/11, while serving in the State Department, I sat down with Iranian diplomats to discuss the next steps in Afghanistan. Back then, we had a common enemy, the Taliban and its Al-Qaeda associates, and both governments thought it was worth exploring whether we could cooperate. The Iranians were constructive, pragmatic and focused, at one point they even produced an extremely valuable map showing the Taliban’s order of battle just before American military action began.”
After one of the Supreme National Security meetings in late September 2011, Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Army, told me, “I suspected that the U.S. request for our help might have been a tactical move and not intended to lead to long-term cooperation. However, I also viewed Iran’s assistance as a no-lose proposition. If the United States were sincere we would help them topple our archenemy and Al-Qaeda, an extremist terrorist group that threatened our security, the region, and the international community. Then broader cooperation would be possible.”
The third example of American leadership ignoring gestures on Iran’s part was in 2003, when the George W. Bush administration decided to attack Iraq. As the former secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, I was aware of a case in which Iran sent a message through a mediator to the White House warning that a military invasion of Iraq would be a mistake and that Bush should not commit his administration to pursuing such a course of action. Also, then-President Khatami said in an interview on an official presidential trip to India, “While we recommend Iraq to abide by all UN resolutions, at the same time, we would condemn any military action and war against it (Iraq). We hope that the crisis would be solved peacefully.”
Iran offered cooperation with the United States to help resolve the Iraq issue peacefully, yet we opposed a full-fledged American invasion of Iraqi territory despite the fact that a removal of Saddam’s regime would have been a boon to Tehran. Right after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, major Iraqi resistance groups that had fought alongside the Iranian army during the eight-year war of aggression (1980-1988), such as the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Badr Brigades, and the Daawa party, left Iran to cooperate with the United States to build new political, military, and security structures for Iraq after Saddam. Indeed, the United States could not manage post-Saddam developments without the support and cooperation of these groups. However, after the new constitution and the presidential and parliamentary elections, Washington decided to isolate Iran’s role in Iraq, which turned the climate of cooperation into an unhealthy rivalry between the United States and Iran.
Fourth, regarding Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, which was one of the world’s most successful diplomatic efforts to resolve a potential confrontation, the United States again reneged on its promises. In other writings, I have emphasized that after years of intensive and technical negotiations, Iran and leading powers forged the most comprehensive nuclear deal that the nonproliferation world had ever seen. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a deal based not on trust, but on rigorous regimes of inspections and verification.
The 2015 deal addressed the main concern of the international community: that Iran’s nuclear program would always remain exclusively peaceful. The UN Security Council ratified the nuclear deal on July 20, 2015 with Resolution 2231. Over the past four years, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly reported that Iran continues to remain in full compliance with the nuclear deal. When the Donald Trump administration came into power in 2017, it was initially frustrated that it could not easily get rid of the nuclear deal with Iran. Finally in May 2018, President Trump and his advisors decided to violate the resolution endorsed by the UN Security Council, dismissing the UN body as the world’s supreme rule-enforcing and adjudicating entity.
The Trump administration’s violation of the JCPOA was a slap in the face to any attempts to reduce tensions between Iran and the United States and to resolve global security issues through diplomatic means. In this vein, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in April 2015, “Now, this [nuclear negotiations] is a new experience. If the other side [the United States] sets aside its bad behavior, this will become a new experience for us, one that will tell us that, well, we can also negotiate with them about other issues. But, if they repeat the same behavior and take the wrong path, it [the negotiations] will only reinforce our past experience.”
Hence, the failure of the Trump administration to implement the JCPOA reinforced the longstanding pessimism that existed among Iranians regarding the trustworthiness of the United States as a negotiating partner. Had the American leadership succeeded in upholding its side of the bargain indicated in the JCPOA, there could have been grounds for a better diplomatic trajectory between the two nations, not just in bilateral relations, but in collective efforts to resolve other important issues in the region (terrorism and conflict resolution in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, to name a few). This consistent failure of the United States to abide by what it has committed itself to has convinced Iran that agreements with the Americans are essentially precarious, and that the lifespan of a deal is likely no longer than the term of the U.S. president making the deal. After the end of the Barack Obama administration, the incoming Trump administration has clearly not been bound to any agreement made by its predecessor.
Roots of the Saudi–Iran Division
Ever since the negotiations for a comprehensive nuclear deal started in 2013, Saudi Arabia joined Israel as a voice of opposition to an agreement between Iran and the West. Saudi Arabia, as the most influential member of the PGCC, viewed the nuclear deal as a permit for Iran to wreak havoc in the region. Signs of Saudi frustration were evident. From uniting diplomatically with Israel against a nuclear deal to oversupplying oil to the world market to keep prices low, almost all Saudi actions in recent years are connected to the kingdom’s fears of losing its regional stature in proportion to Iran’s growing regional influence.
Analysts and political observers both from the region and abroad view this growing Saudi–Iranian conflict through various lenses. They often argue that the Saudis are pushed to contend with Iran because of economic and demographic disparities Riyadh feels it has with regards to Iran. For example, pundits point to the fact that Iran has a young and highly educated population of 80 million people, while Saudi Arabia has a population of over 30 million people with almost 9 million foreigners (mostly South Asian workers who occupy various sectors in the economy such as services, energy, and construction). Analysts also discuss the economic gap between the two neighbors as a reason for their geopolitical tension. While Iran and Saudi Arabia are both oil producers, the former has enormous industrial sectors in textiles, garments, chemicals, petrochemicals, steel, auto, high-tech, and electronics which the latter, with the exception of but one or two of these fields, lacks. Many theorized that once the nuclear deal was sealed and the international sanctions removed, more resources would be made available to Iran to continue projecting its power in the region.
Rather than engage with Tehran in regional cooperation, Riyadh has continuously tried to undermine the role of Iran in the region, but the kingdom’s attempts to do so have failed. The Saudis backed the anti-Syrian March 14th Alliance in Lebanon only to see Iran’s ally Hezbollah remain a powerful force in Lebanese politics. The Saudis were also hapless to contain Iran’s role in Iraq. These failures, however, provide further incentive for the Saudis to be obsessed with Iran as a competitor.
More recently, with the rise of a generation of young state-incumbents led most notably by Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), who was appointed as the crown prince of Saudi Arabia in 2017, the kingdom is at risk of becoming a pariah state. This young generation of state managers seems interested in perpetuating tensions and promoting an aggressive foreign policy toward Iran—largely to divert domestic and international attention from the real threats, namely Saudi-backed extremism. However, some mistakes by MBS such as the Yemen war, taking Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri hostage, and the Khashoggi affair are homemade and not related to Iran.
All told, the Saudis have failed to realize that the fear of losing regional standing cannot be mitigated by provoking sectarian confrontation. Now with the increasing number of conflicts in the region, particularly the Syrian civil war, more regional actors have acquired visibility such as Russia, Turkey, and Egypt. This multiplicity of involvements by state actors further invites a new model of conflict resolution in the region, in which Iran can play a part.
The “End-State” Model for Conflict Resolution
Presenting a general model of conflict resolution in the region is crucial, because the Middle East has seen a meteoric rise in the number of violent conflicts over the past twenty years. The enormity and urgency of such conflicts behooves us to think about viable models of conflict resolution that could bring sustainable peace to the region.
It must be emphasized that parties involved in negotiating a broad Middle East peace must know the “end-state” of a final deal. They should steer away from having competing political objectives. In this vein, the success of the Iran nuclear deal sheds enormous light on the conditional background needed for negotiations to resolve the Yemeni, Gazan, Syrian, and Libyan crises. Were it not for the negotiating parties involved in the JCPOA first agreeing on the “end-state of the process,” achieving a deal would not have been possible. In the context of the Iran nuclear deal, the bottom-line for Iran was the respect for a peaceful nuclear program including uranium enrichment. The bottom-line for the Western powers was no nuclear bomb in Iran. The Iran deal’s success depended on both sides being clear, transparent, and compatible.
Moving forward, regional and world powers should suspend competing objectives during the process of negotiations. All parties involved in a Middle East regional conflict must achieve a baseline agreement prior to the implementation process. One of the main reasons that the Syrian peace talks in Geneva failed is that the United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian government, and the armed rebels had competing objectives, even after preliminary agreements were reached on the principles of a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Therefore, the end-state of the negotiation process with respect to the conflicts in the region must be clearly and transparently identified. Once the partners involved in negotiations have identified each party’s end-state objectives, the negotiation process can start in good faith. As demonstrated in this model, the negotiation process overlaps with certain political steps, each of them equally important to facilitate conflict resolution. Respect for the territorial integrity of the country troubled by conflict and collective violence reduction are crucial.
Surprisingly enough, there are political analysts that see partition as the main solution to conflict in the region. For instance, in an article published by the Yale Global, analysts suggest that partition of Syria along racial, ethnic, and religious lines is the only way to gain a resolution to the conflict. However, this is a faulty premise. Partition on those grounds in Syria and other flash-points in the Middle East will only give rise to more conflict and political opportunism for separationist groups whose interests do not necessarily align with those of the people.
Part of the reason why conflicts break out is because minority rights are not handled properly. A crucial factor in the process of negotiation is that parties involved should not dictate the nature of the negotiations according to their preferences. Other important political steps are free and fair elections and the drafting of new constitutions, which result in executive and legislative branches based on democratic principles and rights for minorities.
After agreeing on the principles of the “end state,” parties need a plan of action. The first stepping-stone would be a ceasefire. Once the ceasefire is in place, then a national dialogue must start to formulate the principles needed to reach a long-term peace. Humanitarian assistance is of course essential, since ordinary people become the most vulnerable in a conflict.
As alluded to earlier, a group of world and regional powers can play a role in bringing about peace in the region, yet cannot themselves alone be the final deciders. This is because countries often have conflicting and overlapping interests that may induce them to put the sustainability of region-wide peace at risk. As such, ultimately the UN Security Council must step in and be the final arbiter for the coordination and supervision of peace. Once a functioning and inclusive transitional bureaucracy is set in place through a free and fair election supervised by the UN, foreign aid should be made available as “investment funds” to reconstruct the areas of wartime destruction. This rebuilding process is familiar to the United States and the UN, as both gave huge post-war funds during the long history of aid-giving after World War II.
A final element crucial to facilitating the success of the negotiation process would be a shift away from pernicious zero-sum calculations. This idea that winning must necessitate a loss by the other side kills the chance for a mutual victory and the establishment of a lasting peace. The Yemeni conflict in this case is the most telling. While analysts believe that bringing the Houthis to the negotiation table may increase in the likelihood of a political settlement, the Trump administration has backed the Saudis’ zero-sum approach. This approach assumes that a Saudi-led military victory in Yemen will mark a defeat for Iran, while a political solution or settlement with the Houthis will constitute a triumph for Tehran. Yet, were the United States and Saudi Arabia open to a win-win scenario in Yemen in which the Houthis, Saudis, and Iranians all gained their objectives, a long-term peace in the country would be a real possibility.
Win-Win Models and Lose-Lose Models

Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program failed from 2003 to 2013. After ten years of negotiations, Iran and the regional world powers had a breakthrough when they agreed on an end-state which would be workable for both sides. They signed the Joint Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program on November 24, 2013. This document was short—only four pages—but it showed the shape of an end-state resolution, and was a roadmap that led to the world powers and Iran agreeing on the final 159-page JCPOA agreement.
The international community used the same approach with Afghanistan. In the Bonn conference in 2001, regional and international powers agreed on the following principles for a future Afghanistan: national reconciliation; independence; national sovereignty; territorial integrity; free elections; national unity; broad representation in an interim arrangement of all segments; and broad-based, gender-sensitive, multi-ethnic and fully representative governance prior to the establishment of permanent institutions in the country. Yet the reasons for the failure of the 2001 Afghanistan roadmap were threefold. First, the United States undermined the principle of power-sharing with its emphasis on eliminating the Taliban at all costs. Clearly, we in Tehran wanted to remove the Taliban from power as well, but we would have been open to a negotiated settlement in which the Taliban leadership joined the new power-sharing governing system in Kabul in a non-leading role. With the support of regional powers, mainly Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the Taliban had been a major player in Afghanistan after the end of the USSR’s occupation in 1989, a fact that the United States did not respect in 2001. Second, there was a lack of cooperation among Bonn conference attendee nations in collectively fighting terrorism in Afghanistan. Third, the American strategy of exclusive dominance in Afghanistan undermined the interests of other regional and international powers such as Russia and Iran. Therefore, the Bush administration did away with an indispensable part of crisis management in preserving the integrity and unity of the country, and the United States missed a chance to collectively cooperate with Russia and Iran to combat and eradicate Al-Qaeda terrorism in Afghanistan.
In looking at peace process failures in post-Saddam Iraq, it is instructive to see how power sharing, free elections, and the rights of minorities were not successfully integrated by the United States and the newly formed Iraqi government. The United States disregarded the importance of sharing the process with major regional and international powers, once again trying to go it alone. With U.S. support, the Nouri Al-Maliki government undermined the rights of the Sunni minority, while major regional and international powers did not contend with terrorism across Iraq. Finally, while the United States dismantled the military and security apparatus that would have led to increased security in the country, Israel and Saudi Arabia covertly supported the establishment of a semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north.
End-State Model as the Way Forward
The outlined “end-state” solution model would be a more effective path toward larger efforts in bringing about sustainable peace in the region. Regional multi-state organizations such as the Arab League and the GCC have consistently failed to promote peace in the region. Their lack of success suggests that a solution must be found elsewhere. Ultimately, inclusive regional security and cooperation among regional powers, regional organizations, and actors on the ground, with the support of world powers through the Security Council, is imperative for the creation and maintenance of sustainable peace and security in the Middle East.
Fundamentally, all parties involved must first identify an end-state of the negotiation process. Next, all the parties need to reach a consensus on the compatibility of their various political objectives. Finally, everyone with a seat at the table must not reduce the talks to a zero-sum political game in which a winner-takes-all mentality settles in over the participants. These three factors are extremely important to facilitate the desired outcome: putting an end to the civil wars and conflicts.
This model is useful in almost every conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, because it encompasses concrete steps toward addressing the demands of all social and political forces involved. In such endeavors, no organization in the world enjoys such high levels of authority and respect as the UN Security Council. Iran has played a constructive role in two cases of UN-led crisis management: the 2001 Bonn conference and the Iranian nuclear program negotiations. Iran now seems ready to be a positive actor in the region. Yet, this willingness to initiate and participate in collective efforts on the part of Iranian leadership still depends on the actions of other influential regional (Saudi Arabia and Turkey) and international (the United States and the European Union) powers.
There is no way out of crises without the political will to cooperate in good faith based on rational choices. No single regional or international power can manage such a complex diplomatic and international quagmire. We need a workable model to realize win-win, face-saving solutions. A realistic and non¬discriminatory model, coupled with multilateralism and collective cooperation by regional and world powers, is imperative for crisis management in the Middle East.
*Hossein Mousavian is Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University and a former spokesman for Iran's nuclear negotiators. 

Friday, March 08, 2019

How Trump can forge a new path towards diplomacy with Iran

By: Hossein Mousavian*

Tehran, March 7, IRNA - Iranian ex-diplomat and former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian in an article revealed the way US President Donald Trump can forge a fresh way in diplomacy towards Iran.

'Even if Washington and Tehran want to remain eternal enemies, at least they could refrain from insulting each other's people, history and culture,' Mousavian said.

The full text of Mousavian’s article that originally appeared in middleeasteye.net is as follows:

In a statement issued on February 20, more than 50 pro-diplomacy organizations representing millions of American voters urged US policymakers to respect the Iran nuclear deal, which verifiably blocks Iran’s pathway to a nuclear weapon, supports good-faith diplomacy and opposes war with Iran. 

Earlier last month, as millions of Iranians rallied to mark the 40th anniversary of the 1979 revolution that ended 2,500 years of monarchy in Iran, US President Donald Trump tweeted in Persian and English: “40 years of corruption. 40 years of repression. 40 years of terror. The regime in Iran has produced only #40YearsofFailure. The long-suffering Iranian people deserve a much brighter future.” 

In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted: “#40YearsofFailure to accept that Iranians will never return to submission. #40YearsofFailure to adjust US policy to reality. #40YearsofFailure to destabilize Iran through blood & treasure.”

Nuclear fallout

Both Iranian and US leaders concur that Washington has imposed the most biting sanctions ever on Tehran. It bears noting, however, that with the exception of a brief period from 2013 to 2016, when Tehran and Washington negotiated at the highest levels to resolve one of their most complicated disagreements - the nuclear issue - the US policy towards Iran has been constantly focused on economic sanctions, pressure and regime change. 

The question remains whether Trump wants to continue on this ineffective and costly path, or pursue a new approach with Iran to break decades of deadlock in their bilateral relations. “Change and our attitude will change,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said. Trump could, in fact, end decades of US-Iran animosity by adopting a five-pronged strategy.

Even if Washington and Tehran want to remain eternal enemies, at least they could refrain from insulting each other’s people, history and culture.

First is intention. Washington must convey to Tehran its intention to abandon its regime-change policy, something that is only attainable if Washington shows its sincerity through both words and actions. Empty words followed up by hostile actions would only demonstrate Washington’s disingenuousness and lack of seriousness, likely leading to the opposite of the intended results. 

Second is language. The US has always talked down to Iran, employing disrespectful and offensive language towards the country, calling it a “pariah state” and adding it to the “axis of evil”. To be fair, Iran has used the same derogatory language in reference to the US, which it brands as the “Great Satan”.

Even if Washington and Tehran want to remain eternal enemies, at least they could refrain from insulting each other’s people, history and culture. Ayatollah Khamenei recently clarified that Iranians would chant “Death to America” as long as Washington's hostile policies continued, but noted that the slogan is directed at US leaders, not the American nation.

Diplomatic approach

Third is approach. A termination of hostilities will be impossible as long as Washington thinks it can coerce Iran into submission. A diplomatic approach must replace the threat of war and coercive policies - but diplomacy is not about issuing maximalist demands to a sovereign state and expecting total capitulation.

Fourth is having a pragmatic plan of action. A number of reports by US think tanks have recommended a “grand bargain, big for big” approach, but this is not realistic. A more practical approach is to begin with “small for small” measures.

The existing mistrust between Iran and the US runs deep, and Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal has only exacerbated the situation. Therefore, the more realistic path forward involves smaller confidence-building steps, such as Iran-US cooperation on counter-narcotic and anti-piracy operations.

Fifth is the end state. Washington and Tehran will only enter such a roadmap if they can see the end state. During nuclear negotiations, the end state for the US was to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon; for Iran, it was 'nuclear rights' under the non-proliferation treaty and the lifting of sanctions. Negotiating for the mere purpose of negotiating is not in the interests of either country.

Resolving the current animosities between Iran and the US can be based on non-intervention and a joint respect for sovereignty. There can also be win-win solutions for some of the ongoing practical issues, such as a fair regional arrangement for conventional and unconventional weapons in the Middle East. 

Sustainable peace

While Iran has voluntarily limited the range of its ballistic missiles to 2,000 kilometres, Israel and Saudi Arabia both possess missiles with more than double that range. And while Israel is the only country in the Middle East with a nuclear weapons arsenal, Iran - which does not have any nuclear weapons - is under pressure and biting sanctions. 

Repeated UN resolutions have called for establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones in the Middle East. The implementation of UN resolutions, without double standards, will open the path towards sustainable peace, potentially resolving many of the disputes between Tehran and Washington.

A day after Trump’s hostile remarks about Iran during his State of the Union address, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran was ready to establish 'friendly relations' with the US if it apologised for past wrongs.

A change in relations is possible, but it requires patience and the right approach. A real change - a big change - would take many years, requiring both sides to embrace the obligations and opportunities that come under the banner of peace. 

*Hossein Mousavian is Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University and a former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators.

Tuesday, February 05, 2019

US has used every possible coercion policy against Iran - and it failed

By: Hossein Mousavian*

Tehran, Jan 30, IRNA - Iranian ex-diplomat and former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian in an article said all the possible coercion policies adopted by the US against Iran have been defeated.

'Over the next two years, this battle will have tremendous effects on the region - but there will be no winner until all concerned parties shift from confrontation to cooperation,' Mousavian said.

The full text of Mousavian’s article that originally appeared in middleeasteye.net is as follows:

Shortly after Secretary of the State Mike Pompeo embarked on a Middle East tour to mobilise US allies to “confront” Iran, his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, tweeted that “whenever/wherever US interferes, chaos, repression & resentment follow”. 

From overthrowing the democratically elected government of the late prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953, to continuously supporting authoritarian states, to waging wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, all US interventions have led to the destruction of physical capital and democratic institutions, collateral damage, political instability, displacement and the empowerment of autocratic rulers. 

Where direct military intervention may not be a viable solution, as seems to be the case with Iran, imposing illegal sanctions has been a convenient strategy for the US to exert power and project its hegemony. 'America’s economic sanctions against the regime are the strongest in history, and will keep getting tougher until Iran starts behaving like a normal country,” Pompeo recently said in Cairo.
US coercion policy

From Carter to Reagan, and Bush to Obama, US presidents have long viewed sanctions as an effective means of achieving political gains with respect to Iran. Short of full-fledged military action, the US has deployed every possible coercion policy against Iran - but thus far, it has failed. 

In US President Donald Trump’s era, however, these pernicious policies are being pursued most comprehensively and aggressively. A clique of notorious warmongers, including Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, have taken key policymaking positions in the Trump administration.

Representing the most radical and conservative factions of the American polity, they have mobilised all their resources not just to put pressure on the Iranian government, but also to possibly overthrow it. 

The US focus is now on garnering further international support to confront Iran. It will host an international summit next month to promote stability and freedom in the Middle East, focusing on Iran’s regional influence. “We’ll bring together dozens of countries from all around the world,” Pompeo said in announcing the 13-14 February event in Poland.

Moreover, top US officials and their Arab allies in the region, along with Israel, hold regular meetings to hatch plots against Iran. This new strategy has economic, political and military dimensions. From violating the terms and conditions of the Iran nuclear deal, to impeding Iran’s European and Asian trade partners, the US has become the flag-bearer of an economic war against Iran. 
Israel’s role

On the military side of this strategy, Israel has vowed to take action if necessary. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said Trump was “acting against Iran at the economic level, and we here in Israel are acting against Iran at the military level”. This is only part of Netanyahu’s warmongering strategy: he also invoked God to destroy the Iranian government. 

Despite these collective effort to “contain” Iran’s regional role, recent developments in the region have seemed to favour Iran, Russia and Turkey. The US and its allies waged wars in Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, with very mixed results.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah played a key role in the establishment of a cabinet in 2016 headed by Saad Hariri and in the appointment of Hezbollah ally Michel Aoun as president. 

In Syria, Russian and Iranian support for the Syrian government undermined the US regime-change strategy and played a decisive role in preventing the country’s collapse.

In Iraq, Tehran came to Baghdad’s aid to manage a military force in the form of the 120,000-strong Popular Mobilisation Units to liberate Iraqi lands occupied by the Islamic State group (IS). In Yemen, the US and Saudi Arabia are bogged down in a costly war. 

As analyst Jonathan Spyer said, “So far, the Iranians have effectively won in Lebanon, are winning in Syria and Iraq, and are bleeding the Saudis in Yemen.'

Iran has been doing its best to minimise the deleterious effects of the US sanctions. Evading sanctions is an art that Iran has perfected, as Zarif said. Still, there is no doubt that the sanctions have been effectively hitting the Iranian economy.

Iran’s Achilles heel comprises the US sanctions, the US-Saudi-Israeli alliance and its confrontational strategy, and domestic economic problems, such as inflation, corruption, unemployment and political factionalism, which undermine Iran’s internal social cohesion.
Internal divisions

Containing the current political factionalism and social polarisation will be difficult, given upcoming Iranian parliamentary and presidential elections in the next two years, which may further divide the country’s social and political forces. 

Meanwhile, the US domestic Achilles heel, as noted by Andy Surabian, the Republican strategist and former special assistant to Trump, is “that the next two years are going to be nonstop political war”.

On foreign policy, the major US weakness is its strategy of unilateralism, undermining international treaties, losing traditional allies and investing in palaces in the Middle East rather than nations. Pompeo's Cairo speech 'praised dictators and ignored the aspirations of ordinary people. But give the secretary of state this: he was honest,” noted an analysis in Bloomberg. 

In short, the US-Iran duelling over next two years will have tremendous impacts on the region’s political trajectory. In the end, there will be no winner unless all parties divert from confrontation to cooperation. 

*Hossein Mousavian is Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University and a former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators. 

Monday, January 28, 2019

Trump has undone the years of progress in US-Iran relations achieved under Obama

By: Hossein Mousavian*

Tehran, Jan 26, IRNA - Iranian ex-diplomat and former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian in an article reviewd the US President Donald Trump's acts to nullify the progress which had been made in Iran-US ties during the Ex-US President Barack Obama.

The US President Trump announced on May 8, 2018 the withdrawal from the JCPOA, which was condemned by other parties to the 2015 agreement and their emphasis to stay in the landmark international deal.

Earlier, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini said, “We are working, as a Union of 28 member states and with the rest of the international community, to preserve a nuclear agreement that has so far been implemented in full, as certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 13 consecutive reports.'

This is while earlier, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi criticized the European Union for delay in implementation of the SPV following the US exit from Iran nuclear deal, saying that the country deems EU responsible for not implementing the mechanism.

The full text of Mousavian’s article that originally appeared in blogs.lse.ac.uk is as follows:

Nearly four years ago, the US, along with five other countries agreed to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for the curtailment of the country’s nuclear programs. While this agreement helped thaw US-Iranian relations during the Obama administration, President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal has seen a massive decline in engagement between the two countries and a return to old animosities, writes Ambassador Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Younes Mahmoudieh.

Three years ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had met its nuclear related commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed between with China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany in July 2015. The announcement triggered the lifting of sanctions based on UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

The Iran nuclear deal is the most comprehensive agreement in the history of nonproliferation, a clear triumph for diplomacy and represents the most important security agreement since the signing of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF) Treaty between Washington and Moscow during the twilight years of the Cold War. No doubt, US president Obama played a key role on this achievement.

Why Obama was important to US-Iran relations

In the context of Iran-US relations after the 1979 revolution, the Obama administration was an exception in both its approach and subsequent successes regarding Iran, and thus deserves to be examined carefully. During this period, in addition to other world powers, Iran’s direct bilateral communication and negotiations with the United States were at an all-time high. Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s frequent meetings and cordial relationship was something unprecedented between the longtime rival nations.

As far back as November 2007, then Senator Obama called for negotiations with Iran as part of his presidential campaign, a sign of that he was willing to engage with the Islamic Republic directly, without any preconditions. His administration made attempts in its first term but faced two serious hurdling blocks: a very hardline adversary in President Ahmadinejad as well as domestic division in the White House.

The American government was neither united nor coordinated in its Iran policy at first; serious differences existed between the White House and the State Department. Dennis Ross of the National Security Council, a prominent Israel advocate, was skeptical of a multilateral engagement policy with Iran and often clashed with seasoned diplomat William J. Burns, a moderate who had served in the State Department under both Republican and Democratic administrations. Ross stepped down from his post in the Obama administration in November of 2011; Deputy Secretary of State Burns was subsequently tasked with leading the American team in secret talks with Iran.

During the Ahmadinejad presidency and President Obama’s first term (2008-2012), world powers became united in their approach towards Iran. It was a unique moment where China and Russia supported US-EU initiatives to pressure Iran, imposing six UNSC resolutions against the Islamic Republic. American sanctions during this period were said to be truly the most damaging and harmful because of the cohesiveness and coordination of the US and its allies. No American allies dared to openly defy President Obama, much less form a coalition designed to subvert his policies. The US achieved global consensus on its Iran policy. Maximum international pressure was exerted. Nevertheless, the first direct US-Iran negotiations at the level of deputy foreign minister began in 2012, in the last year of Ahmadinejad’s presidency.

The road to the JCPOA

In 2013, President Rouhani took the helm of the Iranian government with his moderate foreign policy approach and a promise to end sanctions. His foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, a US-educated diplomat, was nominated to lead his country into nuclear negotiations with world powers. For the first time in over three decades of US-Iran relations since the 1979 revolution, there existed a positive, coherent team on both sides willing to engage in reciprocity measures founded on mutual respect. Secretary of State John Kerry led the American team in the international negotiations while Robert Malley headed the Middle East desk of the National Security Council; William Burns and Wendy Sherman played critical roles for the US as well. The presence of united and moderate teams in both Iran and the United States yielded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, a diplomatic triumph applauded by the international community.

The Obama period can be characterized by historic firsts in US- Iran policy. First, following the deal, President Obama remained dedicated to implementing American commitments outlined in the agreement, although primary US sanctions remained his main obstacle. Long-standing financial disputes between the two countries were partially resolved during this period, including a $1.7 billion payment made to Iran.

Second, the American president declined pressures by Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt to attack Iran and in an interview with The Atlantic, Obama outlined power-sharing incentives for Iran and Saudi Arabia rather than unilateral dominance of the Middle East, thus avoiding war.

Third, successful negotiations between US-Iran security officials culminated in a prisoner swap: five Americans were released in Iran in exchange for seven Iranians freed by the United States. Improved relations and direct ministerial contact also resulted in the swift release of US sailors after having entered Iranian territorial waters in January of 2016.

Finally, rhetoric softened and concessions were made; in his address to the UN general assembly in 2013, President Obama committed to not pursuing regime change in Iran but rather seeking relations founded upon “mutual interests and mutual respect.” The US president also recognized Ayatollah Khamenei’s fatwa banning weapons of mass destruction, and respected Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear enrichment (becoming the first US president to ever do so).

President Obama also acknowledged that Iranians were victims of chemical weapons during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War and admitted to the US role in overthrowing Iran’s first democratically elected government in 1953.

This unprecedented success was only possible due to political will on both sides to uphold their commitments and a genuine desire for cooperation. President Obama defied both domestic and foreign war hawks. He stood up to the constant threats and intimidation from Tel Aviv and Riyadh and exerted maximum effort in implementing the nuclear deal. His measures were a step forward towards establishing trust. Iran, in turn, fulfilled all of its commitments as confirmed by the IAEA and began to engage with world powers on a variety of issues.

These policies were followed by concrete diplomatic breakthroughs, a direct result of the “engagement policy”. The United States and Iran were able to resolve their differences in a fundamentally new way.
A new Iran policy under President Trump

The stark contrast in policies and results between the Obama and Trump presidencies could not be more pronounced, even from the outset. President Trump began his presidential election campaign with belligerent rhetoric, threatening to rip up the multilateral agreement “to shreds”, calling it the “worst deal in history.”

After his electoral victory, his administration isolated itself by subsequently withdrawing from the JCPOA; a clear violation of UNSC resolution 2231, which the US had sponsored. Trump failed to convince the other signatories to abandon the nuclear deal and rejected international consensus that endorsed the JCPOA, leading to US isolation.

Following encouragement by Israel and Saudi Arabia, the United States, under President Trump, resorted to illegal, unilateral pressures: barring Iranian civilian’s access to humanitarian goods including food, life-saving medicine, and civil aviation equipment. Sanctions were also re-imposed on Iranian carpets, pistachios, handicrafts and other goods. The symbolic $25 billion Boeing deal with Iran was also cancelled in May 2018, and this past November, National Security Advisor John Bolton announced, “Iran will be squeezed ‘until the pips squeak.’ ”

In his September 2018 address to the UN General Assembly (UNGA), Trump chose to heap praise upon North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un (who he had previously referred to as “rocket man”) while making the most provocative statements ever made by a US president regarding Iran at the UNGA. All high-level and formal negotiations with Iran were terminated including negotiations between security institutions.

Looking more widely, the United States has strengthened its alliance with Saudi Arabia and has been complicit in the Saudi bombardment of Yemen while selling the Kingdom $110 billion in American arms. The US also initiated the creation of an “Arab NATO” which has exacerbated ethnic rivalries and Sunni-Shia tensions in order to eliminate Iranian influence from the region. An increasingly hostile Riyadh, Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi triangle was formed to confront Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman was quoted saying, “We will work so that it becomes a battle for them in Iran” while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video threatening Iran at a nuclear facility.

Military action is not off the table either: this month, National Security Advisor John Bolton asked the Pentagon for military plans to strike Iran and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly announced that US President Donald Trump “is acting against Iran at the economic level and we here in Israel are acting against Iran at the military level.”

With the arrival of the Trump administration, US-Iran policy was transformed from one of “interaction” to “hostile confrontation” overnight. Conversely, world powers are currently exploring ways to save the JCPOA without the United States, counteract American sanctions, and have rejected the hawkish rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. The EU has threatened to distance itself from the US and for the first time in history establish its own “European Payment System” undermining the US dollar. The current EU project, the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), is designed to encourage trade with Iran and effectively bypass American sanctions. Countries, under the banner of the Group of 77 at the United Nations, have [also] voiced support for” the deal. The remaining JCPOA signatories are endeavoring to maintain their commitment to the agreement and support for Iran.

If world powers manage to preserve the JCPOA without the United States, this would have an enormous impact on the promotion of multilateralism in the face of US unilateralism in regional and international issues. ‘After observing twenty months of Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East, we have to conclude that it has needlessly escalated conflicts, inflicted collective punishment on tens of millions of people for no good reason, damaged US interests and our national reputation, and made our government complicit in numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity. One can call the administration’s policies successful only in the sense that they are “successfully” inflicting unnecessary suffering and death on people in many different parts of the region’, wrote Daniel Larison a contributing editor at The American Conservative in October 2018.

Trump has relied on Riyadh and Tel Aviv to undermine Iran in the region and create an axis of power tasked with destroying the nuclear deal. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 12 preconditions for negotiations with Iran further demonstrate a fundamental difference in approach as compared to the Obama administration. These preconditions are tantamount to complete submission by Iran to the United States and international humiliation. Efforts to bring Iran to its knees have isolated the Trump administration and unified world powers in their resistance towards US policies regarding Iran.
Tehran disengages in the face of Trump

The Obama-Trump presidencies diverge completely in terms of Iran. President Obama favored multilateralism while President Trump acts unilaterally. President Obama avoided sensitivities and focused diplomatic efforts on common ground. President Trump has chosen insult and slander. The US, under President Obama, maintained a respect for international law and negotiations whereas President Trump has rejected international institutions and the rule of law (the ICJ, the UN, the P4+1, and the IAEA). The Obama administration was in favor of better Saudi-Iran relations and regional cooperation. Trump is fueling Tehran-Riyadh tensions and has encouraged sectarianism, arms races, and regional division. President Obama acknowledged past US mistakes in regard to Iran. President Trump seems hell-bent on regime change and support for Iran’s enemies, no matter the cost: Several prominent members of the Trump administration have met with and voiced support for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MeK) terrorist organization, a group infamous for its support of Saddam Hussein and its history of suicide bombings and assassinations carried out in Iran.

In short, the US knows how to create wars and impose sanctions but is incapable of genuine diplomacy to resolve animosities with Iran. This policy of threats, bullying and intimidation has failed in the past and will not work in the future. Cooperation and dialogue provide results. Iran has been calling for “mutual respect” for decades. “Axis of evil” rhetoric simply fails every-time, especially concerning Iran. Nevertheless, President Obama was far from soft on Iran. His sanctions and policies in the first term of his presidency were the most hostile and unwelcome, yet they failed to achieve results. It was his tact and his willingness to put aside differences that led to concrete progress.

Although Tehran was not willing to engage with the Obama administration beyond the nuclear issue, tensions decreased dramatically during his presidency. However, following Trump’s Iran policy, Tehran has rejected every offer by the Trump administration to approach the negotiating table. Why? Appearances matter. A country with a proud history of civilization and resistance will not succumb to the language of threat, bullying and humiliation. “Good faith begets good faith.” President Obama understood this, and these are the magic words President Trump needs to understand in order to manage US-Iran relations after four decades of hostility.

*Hossein Mousavian is a Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University and a former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators. His book, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir, was published in 2012 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His latest book, Iran and the United States: An Insider’s view on the Failed Past and the Road to Peace was released in May 2014.

*Hossein Mousavian is a Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University and a former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators.