Bin Salman will step down: Hossein Askari

By Javad Heirannia

TEHRAN – Professor Hossein Askari, an expert on Saudi Arabia who also teaches international business at the George Washington University, believes that with no doubt Mohammad bin Salman, ordered Khashoggi kidnapping, murder and disposal of the body. “I don’t believe that MBS can survive,” Hossein Askari, who served as special advisor to Saudi finance minister, tells the Tehran Times.

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: What new facts are there in the Khashoggi tragedy?

A: Erdogan has released some of the tapes surrounding what happened to Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate to the U.S., UK and Saudi Arabia among others. These tapes purportedly confirm the murder and dismemberment of Khashoggi. I say some of the tapes because we don’t know what he has and what he has released.

Q: Is there any evidence in the tapes or anywhere else connecting Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) to Khashoggi’s murder?

A: This is a red herring. Let me tell you why and with no doubt in my mind, Mohammad bin Salman, or MBS, ordered this kidnapping, murder and disposal of the body. Such actions are not carried out unless ordered from the top. MBS is today the effective top man. This is the way Saudi Arabia works. There is no doubt about this. The U.S. knows it. The UK knows it. The hypocrisies of all these leaders is unbelievable. Let me repeat, MBS the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia ordered this horrific act and its every detail. 

Q: What are the inconsistencies in Saudi Arabia’s story of what happened to Khashoggi?

A: Where is the body? If the Saudis gave the body to a ‘collaborator’, where is the collaborator? Why did the Saudis send in a ‘cleaning’ crew? And above all, the Saudis have spewed out lie after lie. Even Trump, who is not exactly regarded as a man of truth, has said that the Saudis have engaged in a very bad cover up.

Q: What does Erdogan say he wants from Saudi Arabia?

A: There are a number of things that Erdogan has demanded. He wants the 15 or 18 people involved in this murder extradited to Turkey to stand trial. He wants the name of the so-called collaborator in Turkey that Saudi Arabia keeps alluding to. He wants Khashoggi’s body to further confirm what happened. But nothing. And given all these lies, how can anyone be expected to believe in the investigation that MBS is supposedly conducting?

Q: Will the Saudis comply with Erdogan’s demands?  

A: No. MBS cannot risk even letting one of the 15 or 18 and the Saudi Consul in Turkey who was a witness to it all leave Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future. Why? Because they could tell all. This is one of the reasons supporting the assertion that MBS ordered every detail. If he had not, he would let them speak and tell all. He has to now keep all of the perpetrators in Saudi Arabia. There is no collaborator in Turkey so he cannot produce him or her. And as for Khashoggi’s body, I believe that it was cut up and dissolved in acid. Why else would they send it such a cleaning crew?

Q: What is Erdogan’s game? What does he really want?

A: Erdogan is playing a chess game. First he wants the U.S. to lift any and all sanctions on Turkey. He wants to extract a number of concessions from Trump for Turkey, including the military aircraft that he wants. And also he wants the U.S. to pressure a change in Saudi policies. That is to lift the embargo on Qatar, a Turkey ally. And to pressure Saudi Arabia to rescind most of its demands on Qatar. He wants to pressure Saudi Arabia directly and indirectly through the U.S. to be more accommodating towards the Muslim Brotherhood and reform in the Middle East and North Africa. Erdogan wants Saudi Arabia to change its regional policies and to give financial support to Turkey. 
Erdogan wants to become the leader of the Muslim World. He wants to expose Saudi duplicity, injustice, corruption and ultimately its illegitimacy as the self-declared leader of the Muslim World. In this quest to become the leader of the Muslim World, Erdogan has to be careful. He cannot be accommodating towards the U.S. and to Saudi Arabia and in the process alienate Muslims around the world. So he cannot compromise too much and forget his stated quest for justice and transparency.

Q: How will this affair end? Will MBS stay in power? Will the Qatar embargo end? Will Turkey get Saudi financing? Will U.S. support for Saudi Arabia be curtailed?

A: I don’t believe that MBS can survive. How can the Al-Sauds pretend to be upholders of the Islamic faith? The custodian of the two holy mosques? Their only claim to legitimacy is religion. Yes, they have freely taken from the country’s treasury to finance their lavish lifestyles but now under MBS they are being stripped naked of even more serious crimes—murder of a journalist, genocide in Yemen, the kidnapping of the Prime Minister of Lebanon, wholesale torture of political opponents, lies to the world and on and on. How can MBS be respected by any foreign leader and especially in the Muslim World? They must all be bought but Saudi Arabia does not have enough money! It is too embarrassing for Saudi Arabia and for all Muslims. The best that the rulers of Arabia can do is to at least replace MBS for 2 or 3 years until this whole affair has receded in the minds of all. And then bring him back.
Yes, the Qatar embargo will end within the next few months. This is a minimum concession that Saudi Arabia has to make. 

Yes, the U.S. will have to walk back its over the top support for MBS and the Al-Sauds. But who knows what Kushner will do behind the scenes?”

Q: What does this tragedy say about the future of Saudi Arabia and the Muslim World?

A: Reform. Saudi Arabia will be nudged into more meaningful reforms than allowing women to drive. Muslims worldwide will be demanding representative governance, transparency, better policies and social and economic progress from their rulers. Khashoggi’s death may turn out to be the spark for much-needed reform in the Muslim World, and especially in Saudi Arabia.

THE AFTERMATH OF JAMAL KHASHOGGI: RAMIFICATIONS OF ROYAL PSYCHOPATHY

ABUKAR ARMAN

On October 2nd, Jamal Khashoggi walked into the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul and never walked out.  

The scope of the conspiracy, the magnitude of the savagery, the imbecility of the cover-up, and the subsequent cheap royal mea culpa were all appalling. Jamal Khashoggi’s death was a premeditated murder. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insisted that this criminal act transgressed against both Turkey-Saudi relations and all diplomatic norms, and that this could not simply be swept under the rug. He demanded that the criminals must be handed over to Turkey, and in a recent OpEd, stated that the murder order came from thehighest level of the Saudi government.   

THE MBS EFFECT

Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) is a deformer disguised as a reformer. Since actual political or religious reform was never in his nor in the royal family’s interest, he instituted feeble changes in the Kingdom related to driving and attending recreational public events tailored to temporarily win the hearts and minds of the Saudi youth.

MBS’ obsession with power and his determination to consolidate political and economic power under his command by any ruthless means necessary was apparent to some objective observers in the Middle East and the West, who sounded the alarm early on.

The warnings began when he took over virtually all key ministries, when he claimed he would fight corruption with arbitrary arrests and Mafia-style shakedowns, when he started a mass execution of Saudi Shi’ites—publically executing 47 Shia activists and clerics on the same day, when he arrested the Prime Minister of Lebanon and forced him to resign while visiting Riyadh, when he put a blockade on Qatar and recklessly tried toinvade it, and certainly when he turned Yemen into a hell on earth.

Source/Shutterstock

Within that context, some may consider the barbaric murder of Jamal Khashoggi as the straw that broke the camel’s back, while others, especially among many Muslims around the world, consider this an unfolding prophecy. Islam teaches that committing flagrant oppression and those who shamelessly dishonor their parents are tormented in this world before they are tormented in the hereafter. The Crown Prince has demonstratedboth qualities.  

But the Crown Prince does have his own defenders. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt have called on President Donald Trump, urging him to save MBS from this public disgrace because he is an indispensable strategic partner.      

WHAT LED TO KHASHOGGI’S MARTYRDOM?

Jamal Khashoggi had ten qualities that MBS and his blind cohorts considered grave threats.

He was widely known and respected in the Arab world and was rapidly gaining fame in the West. He had a keen awareness of regional challenges and geopolitical dynamics that clashed with Saudi Arabia’s national interest. He was an insider who knew the strengths and weaknesses of all the royal players. He supported the Arab Spring and argued that it never died and that another wave was imminent – little did he know that he was destined to become the Bouazizi of that second wave. He propagated that freedom of speech and expression is a God-given right and when a ruler resorts to tyranny it is an Islamic obligation to counsel him, and when necessary, publically call him out. He opposed the thinly-veiled campaign of Saudi Arabia to demonize Turkey and Qatar. He was against the arbitrary arrests used to silence certain prominent figures in the country. He was a genuine patriot who loved his country and rejected the idea of being portrayed as part of the political opposition or as foreign nation’s mouthpiece. He was against Israel’s illegal unilateral decision to take all of Jerusalem as its capital city and Saudi Arabia’s silent consent on the matter. And, more importantly, he was critical of MBS’ repressive modus operandi, haphazard economic reform, and self-destructive foreign policy, especially with the catastrophic war in Yemen.

FUTURE OF SAUDI/US RELATIONS

The current US administration has a poor record of protecting the freedom of expression, human rights, and the rule of law. It also favors MBS’ decision to abandon the Palestinian aspiration for statehood and to deal directly with Jarod Kushner on Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ (or peace process hogwash). The US has strategically kept the Kingdom without a US Ambassador since 2017.  

Source/Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead

Granted, Trump will continue fighting hard for a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia. But when American Senators are openly expressing their discontent and supporting protests regarding this mortal fiasco and how that could irreversibly damage America’s global credibility, when one of Saudi Arabia’s biggest supporters in the Senate, Senator Lindsey Graham, publically declares “I am going to sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia”, when the global public opinion is in unison in their condemnation and outrage, when international investors boycott Saudi Arabia’s hyped Desert Davos conference, and when the Editorial Board of media powerhouses such as Washington Post calls the kingdom an “outlaw regime”, it should be obvious that resistance is simply futile.

Saudi Arabia will have to choose between becoming like the ‘smiling Hajjaj’—the most ruthless mass murderer in Islamic history—and the upholding the stability of the Kingdom.  

IMPACT ON TURKEY’S STATUS IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD

Turkey has performed exceptionally well on the world stage. Every day that passed has confirmed the sophistication of its intelligence apparatus, diplomatic temperament, and respect for international rule of law.

Mindful of the dynamics, Turkey restrained itself throughout this international ordeal and gave Saudi Arabia enough space and time to confess and penalize those who associated with the assassination. Turkey did not want to come across as an apolitical exploiter, eager to discredit the Kingdom or stain its image.

The time is ripe for launching a campaign of internal healing and restoration in Turkey as well. Erdogan should free the thousands who were imprisoned during ‘the purge”, or during the state of emergency after the failed coup. As documented by various human rights groups, these prisoners include journalists and other civilians whose only guilt is one of association. And, unfathomable as it may seem, extending an amnesty to his nemesis, Fethullah Gulen, whom he wanted extradited for treason, might be another deed for Erdogan to accomplish to further uphold his image.  

Source/Wikipedia

CAN THE MONARCHY SURVIVE THIS MADNESS?

MBS’ bloody ventures have thrown Saudi Arabia down a slippery slope, and that will ultimately create a vacuum within the Sunni world leadership, with more ramifications to follow.

This barbaric killing that crossed all international diplomatic norms will also impact the kingdom’s relationship with the West, especially with the US, UK and France – their largest weapons suppliers and their main logistical support.

Unfortunately, the monarchy’s top leadership is underestimating the magnitude of the gathering clouds in the same way that it underestimated the capacity of the Turkish government.

Saudi Arabia must commit itself to launching a profound reform program that starts with the sidelining of MBS followed by the ending of the war in Yemen, dropping the Shia crescent and Muslim Brotherhood two-headed boogieman nonsense, and empowering its local Shia community. Granted, there will be some who will fight tooth and nail to keep status quo, especially those who believe that scrutinizing the monarchy is equivalent to questioning the custodianship of the two Holy Mosques.

So far, a number of official denials made by the Saudis were, in one way or another, refuted. And each time, the Saudis came back humiliated and forced to accept the Turkish account. Yet the cover up continues, and the Turkish authorities and Khashoggi’s family are yet to find the victim’s body for forensic tests and burial. There is still no closure.

As various objective minds have suggested in one way or another, the best way to get to the bottom of what happened, how it happened, and under whose orders this horrific assassination was carried out, is for UN Security Council to mandate an international tribunal to conduct a transparent investigation.

Every delay and every attempt made to dodge culpability will only push Saudi Arabia closer to a breaking point.

Khashoggi Case to Result in Bin Salman’s Overthrow: Analyst

By

 IFP Editorial Staff

 

A senior political analyst says the recent murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul will probably lead to the overthrow of the Kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a compromise between the US and its regional allies.

Seyyed Hossein Mousavian, a senior fellow at Princeton University and a former Iranian diplomat, maintains that Saudi Arabia was forced by the White House to admit that Khashoggi had been killed in its consulate in Turkey as the US was under huge international pressure over its ally’s crime.

Seyyed Hossein Mousavian

According to Mousavian, the US will not sacrifice its lucrative business with Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi case, but will finally have to accept the removal of the ambitious crown prince as a compromise.

Mousavian made the comments in a recent interview with Khabar Online news agency, the full text of which follows:

Q: What is your analysis of Khashoggi’s death? Some believe that the murder was intentional and carried out with the main goal of tarnishing Saudi Arabia’s face in the world.

A: It’s not a correct hypothesis. The mainstream media and reliable sources in the US and Europe have no doubt that a team of Saudi commandos had been dispatched by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Istanbul to carry out the murder. It is not clear yet whether or not the order of Khashoggi murder was issued earlier or not. There is a possibility that the team was assigned to merely kidnap Khashoggi but he was killed in clashes with the team’s members. Then the team may have decided hurriedly to dismember his dead body with or without coordination with Riyadh and left Istanbul immediately.

Q: How do you see Saudi Arabia’s confusion in dealing with the case?

A: Saudi Arabia confirmed Khashoggi’s murder for three reasons. First, the Turkish government had key information on the murder and was not ready to bargain over it because this could seriously damage its political and security reputation.

Second, the Washington Post daily was determined to unveil the hands behind the murder and to this end, it had the support of other mainstream media like the New York Times and CNN.

Third, the Turkish intelligence and security apparatus began to leak the details of the murder gradually through Aljazeera TV channel and a number of leading Turkish media. Aljazeera played a key role in provoking the world’s public opinion against Saudi Arabia. Through this scenario, Qatar took a heavy revenge against Saudi Arabia over its isolation plot. Finally, the pressures on the White House forced Trump to send his Secretary of State to Riyadh to urge Saudi officials to accept responsibility for Khashoggi’s murder and vow to punish the perpetrators.

Q: How do you see the future of the US-Saudi relations? Can the US impose sanctions on its regional ally?

A: It goes without saying that the Khashoggi case could hamper the two sides’ relations but they won’t ever sacrifice the ties for such a case. Of course, if Washington comes under pressure, it would sacrifice bin Salman to its own interests but it would never abandon Saudi Arabia as its ally in the region.

Q: How do you assess Turkey’s role in the case? Is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trying to gain concessions over the case? Shall we say that the US is using Turkey as a proxy to handle the case?

A: Unlike previous cases, Erdogan has dealt with Khashoggi’s murder deliberately. He was angry with bin Salman and Trump. Now he has punished them severely by focusing on the case. But the more sensitive section of the case is still untold. Ankara has information that confirms bin Salman’s complicity in the case. If Ankara keeps disseminating information on the case, Washington will have no way but to topple bin Salman. Otherwise, it has to give big concessions to Turkey.

Q: What is your idea about the international reactions particularly those of Arab states as well as the silence of many others?

A: The Arab world is a dead and useless world and we shouldn’t expect anything considerable from them. Most of the Arab states not only remained silent towards the US decision to relocate its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem-al-Quds but also cooperated with Tel Aviv behind the curtain.

Q: How can Iran take advantage of the current political situation in the region? As we know, Russia has stepped into the fray to drag Saudi Arabia into its court against the US. What is your analysis about the issue?

A: Iran has reacted deliberately. If Iran had rushed to show reactions against Riyadh, the western media would point the finger of blame at our country instead of Saudi Arabia. They would also revive all the accusations they had levelled against us over the past four decades. Today, the Israeli lobby groups in the US are highly active to alleviate Washington’s pressure on Saudi Arabia under this pretext that Iran will gain benefit if Saudi Arabia comes under pressure. I think the fate of bin Salman is at the hand of Washington. Tehran and Moscow will have no say in this issue.

Q: How do you see the future of this international controversy? How can it be ended?

A: This is not just a murder. The earlier mistakes by bin Salman like his war on Yemen, taking Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri as hostage, putting sanctions on Qatar and arresting tens of Saudi prince have cast doubt on his ability to serve as the Saudi king. Now, the murder of Khashoggi serves as putting a match to a barrel of gunpowder. Khashoggi was one of the main contributors of Washington Post and his murder shocked the world. So, all mainstream media in the US and the world have been mobilized to overthrow bin Salman.

This comes as the US national interests require that Saudi Arabia remains its main ally. So, the issue has become more complicated. It seems that, at the end of the day, bin Salman may be toppled and the US won’t go further.