The assassination of the Islamic Republic's supreme leader and the widening US-Israeli war on Iran have put Pakistan in a strategic bind – between public outrage, Saudi ties, and fears of western-border instability.
The Cradle
For Pakistan’s leadership, the unfolding war has created a series of overlapping pressures. Islamabad must contain public anger over its perceived alignment with Washington’s Gaza diplomacy. At the same time, it must navigate the implications of the Pakistan–Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), signed in Riyadh in September last year, which commits both states to treat an attack on either as a shared threat.
These pressures are colliding at a moment of intense regional instability.
Islamabad moves to contain a widening war
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, revealed on 3 March that Islamabad had engaged in urgent diplomacy aimed at preventing a wider Iranian escalation against Saudi Arabia.
This development comes in the wake of relentless missile and drone attacks aimed at US military bases and allied facilities throughout the Persian Gulf. He made this statement during a media briefing at the Foreign Office. He remarked, “The situation in KSA is fairly steady.” Just a few moments earlier, he had made similar remarks while addressing the Senate.
Yet beyond the immediate military escalation, policymakers in Islamabad fear a far larger strategic shift.
If the US-Israeli war on Iran succeeds in forcing regime change in Tehran, Pakistani officials worry it could open the door for deeper cooperation between India and Israel along Pakistan’s sensitive western frontier.
Pakistan’s security establishment has long accused India and Israel of supporting separatist movements in Balochistan, the resource-rich province bordering Iran. The prospect of political collapse in Tehran raises fears that militant networks operating along the Iran–Pakistan border could gain new space to operate.
Speaking to The Cradle, Mushahid Hussain Syed, a former information minister and former chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Defense Committee, warns that such a scenario would fundamentally alter Pakistan’s security environment:
“If, God forbid, there is regime change in Iran, then that would be detrimental to Pakistan’s security given the Indian–Israeli Axis. It would mean that the Israeli border has been moved to Taftan, which would be destabilizing for Pakistan, especially Balochistan, as well as Pakistan's nuclear program.”
Shock and anger in Pakistan’s streets
Pakistan’s ruling clique, consisting mostly of the military brass, did not anticipate the violent reaction from the public, nor did they foresee the public anger over their cozying up to the US Board of Peace for Gaza. In the wake of the martyrdom of Iran's supreme leader, a wave of protests surged through Pakistan, culminating in the loss of at least 26 lives.
“For the people of Pakistan, the martyrdom of Iran's Supreme Leader was a moment of mourning, as he was a brave voice for the oppressed in Kashmir and Palestine, a strong friend and ally of Pakistan, and an ardent admirer of the Poet of the East, Allama Iqbal,” Syed says.
Already perturbed by the rulers' alignment with the US's purported Board of Peace, the populace expressed their discontent in a manner that surprised both the US diplomatic corps and military officials. The actions of vandalizing and attempting to breach or ignite the US diplomatic premises and military buildings reflect a significant level of mistrust among Pakistanis toward their rulers.
During the protest, the frustrated mobs partially burned and ransacked a military building in Gilgit-Baltistan and a US consulate in Karachi. The law and order situation is still precarious in different parts of the country, prompting the Pakistani government to impose a curfew and mobilize military forces to restore order.
Saudi pact and the Iran question
Islamabad has readily invoked the Saudi pact, warning Tehran that it must intervene if Iran continues to attack Saudi commercial installations. Pakistan's top government functionary has made it abundantly clear that the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan mandates Pakistan's support for Riyadh in the event of an assault on its integrity.
Despite Tehran's assertion of non-involvement in the attack on the Saudi oil refinery, there exists a faint possibility that Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia could collectively respond to Tehran's actions. Riyadh meticulously established this defense accord for a specific purpose, fully leveraging it as the kingdom pursues military assistance from Pakistan.
Pakistan currently finds itself engaged in a conflict with Afghanistan and needs to exercise caution in opening multiple fronts.
Dar acknowledged the delicate balancing act during remarks in parliament.
“Keeping that in mind, I immediately sensitized our brothers' Iranian leadership from Saudi Arabia, urging them to ‘please keep that in view.’ They specifically asked me to reassure the Saudis that they should not use their soil for any attack on Iran. I secured and provided those assurances,” he told the lawmakers.
He said that following his intervention, there were minimal attacks against Saudi Arabia and Oman, while activities involving Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain continued unabated.
However, Mushahid believes that, since Islamabad did not seek Saudi support in its war against Afghanistan, a similar approach is expected from Riyadh in the current situation:
“Just as Pakistan didn’t put pressure on Saudi Arabia while waging a war in Afghanistan, neither will Saudi Arabia seek support from Pakistan or drag it into the current confrontation with Iran.”
According to Mushahid, the defense pact primarily targets threats to Saudi Arabia from Israel, not any other Muslim country.
Board of Peace or Board of War
The US-backed “Board of Peace” initiative for Gaza now appears deeply compromised.
Launched in early January as part of Washington’s diplomatic effort to reshape post-war governance in Gaza, the initiative included participation from several Muslim-majority states, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye.
But critics now argue that the diplomatic framework may have masked a broader strategy aimed at weakening Iran’s regional position.
Sajjad Azhar, a senior analyst based in Islamabad, believes the current war reflects a longer-term plan by Washington and Tel Aviv.
“It appears that everything was organized in advance,” Azhar tells The Cradle.
“The Gaza plan, the involvement of key Islamic countries, and the diplomatic coordination suggest a wider strategic framework for reshaping the region.”
According to Azhar, that framework may have sought to isolate both Iran and Afghanistan while dismantling regional networks aligned with Tehran.
“Trump believes that proxies are not a solution to any problem; rather, they complicate issues. Therefore, proxies are being eliminated from all sides,” Azhar says.
He also argues that Washington and Tel Aviv may be seeking to broaden the war by drawing regional powers into the confrontation:
“This appears to be a strategy similar to how Europe drew the US into the Second World War. However, here the objective is to distribute the costs of the war and to secure the entire region’s support against Iran.”
Three casualties of the war
Writing in Pakistan’s Geo News on 3 March, Syed argued that the US-Israeli war against Iran has already produced three major political casualties.
The first is US President Donald Trump.
According to Syed, Trump’s credibility has been damaged by entering a new West Asian war after promising US voters he would avoid further military entanglements.
“It is now no longer ‘America first,’ but ‘Israel first’ for Trump. Even the majority of Americans, almost 75 percent, oppose this war against Iran, according to the latest public opinion polls issued on Monday,” Syed noted.
The second casualty, Syed contends, is the fragile détente that had emerged between Iran and Saudi Arabia in recent years.
Tehran now believes some Persian Gulf states quietly supported the US-Israeli war effort, a perception that has already fueled Iranian retaliation across the region.
The third casualty is Washington’s own diplomatic initiative.
The “Board of Peace,” once presented as the framework for stabilizing Gaza and the wider region, now lies buried beneath the wreckage of the expanding war with Iran.
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