A Change of Heart about War against Iran?

Vladimir Platov

An unfriendly relationship between Tehran and Moscow in the past years was to the benefit of the United States because Iran was the only deterrent that prevented Russia from getting a foothold in the Middle East, which would have threatened U.S. interests in the region. However, recently the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran have fostered closer ties in Syria. And as a result, not only did Russia increase its presence in the region but also, together with Iran, began pushing the USA out of there. Hence, Washington made a decision to crush Iran once and for all, as the latter had become a direct threat to the security of Israel (a U.S. stronghold in the Middle East).

Several years ago, the United States seriously considered attacking Iran even without any attempts by American politicians to put together some sort of a coalition to do so. While planning the onslaught without any “outside” help, the USA relied on the superiority of its the military and technological spheres, especially on that of its air force.

However, after the drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities in September, the confrontation between the United States and Iran entered another stage. Although Yemeni Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the strike and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Tehran for the attack, President of the United States Donald Trump chose a more cautious stance. He stated that, aside from armed conflict, there were a number of other ways of exerting pressure on Iran. “There are many options. And there’s the ultimate option, and there are options that are a lot less than that,” the U.S. President told journalists in California in September. “I’m saying “the ultimate option,” meaning go in — war. No, I’m not talking about — I’m not talking about that ultimate option. No,” he added.

The Pentagon also expressed its opposition to the latest military adventure for obvious reasons. After all, it will not be the politicians from the banks of the Potomac River who will then have to extricate the United States from a bloody mess that well known forces in the USA, Israel and, last but not least, Saudi Arabia so wish to create. It is very clear to its leadership that in recent years Iran has managed to reequip its forces with quality armaments, thereby significantly increasing its military capabilities. The nation has been particularly successful at designing its own surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs), and has also become an undisputed leader in the unmanned aerial vehicle sector. Russia has helped Iran improve its defense capabilities by, among other means, supplying it with S-300 PMU2 SAMs. As a result, Iran’s ability to defend its airspace has increased significantly. And in the opinion of a number of foreign military experts, any aggressors that attempt to strike against Iran may incur serious losses. And as many of us know, any American casualties are completely unacceptable for the U.S. army, and particularly for its air force. According to the World Military Strength Rankings, Iran is number 14, that is, above Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, Australia and Canada, and, in the last two years, it has moved up seven places. In addition, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (NEDAJA) is in fourth place in the world based on its might. It has 398 combatant ships, including 34 submarines, thus its capabilities are only somewhat less than those of the United States Navy.

This is why Donald Trump’s current stance is radically different from that in 2017, when he (less than 3 months into his presidency) ordered air strikes against Syria only 2 days after chemical attacks, allegedly ordered by Bashar Assad, and deliberately staged events organized by paid provocateurs from the White Helmets.

The fact that Donald Trump has changed his position on Iran may also stem from the decision taken by the President (who is usually impulsive) to exercise more caution on account of the start of the presidential election campaign. While promoting his “America First” policy (which had already helped him win in 2016), Donald Trump wrote in his Twitter feed that the Unites States ought to end its “stupid endless wars” in Syria and send the troops back home. He has also expressed similar views about other conflicts that the USA had initiated. The President has stressed that the war in Iraq was a waste of money; that it was high time the U.S. forces were withdrawn from Afghanistan, and that other nations needed to compensate Washington for the expenditures associated with stationing its troops abroad, from South Korea to Germany.

In the last few days, the U.S. President has had a similar anti-war epiphany with regards to Iran, despite continued attempts to ramp up tensions between the United States and Iran and even calls for armed retaliation by Israel, Saudi Arabia and Donald Trump’s closest circle in Washington. Undoubtedly, the latter includes, first and foremost, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Vice President Mike Pence, the Senior Advisor to the U.S. President and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as well as a number of leaders in the Middle Eastern region (including Benjamin Netanyahu, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud, and Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi), who are all desperately trying to get Donald Trump to fall into the Iranian trap.

And up until now, such calls had been heeded by the American ruling elite with its aggressive and expansionist policy based not so much on the instinct of self-preservation and the need to overcome the threat posed by Iran, but more on the desire to completely dominate all of Eurasia (where 75% of the global population reside and most of world’s riches are located). And as a result of U.S military adventures there, formerly powerful armed forces of Iraq, Libya and a number of other nations in the region had been destroyed, with only one substantial army remaining (i.e. in Iran) that is capable of putting up some resistance to the United States.

This is why, in the current climate, Donald Trump has indicated that he does not support an armed conflict against Iran with its unpredictable consequences. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani even stated that the U.S. President had proposed lifting all the sanctions against Iran during his meetings with European leaders on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly session in New York. And during the October hearing of the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said that the United States was prepared to hold negotiations with Iran and meet with representatives of its leadership without any pre-conditions.

Following Washington’s lead, Saudi Arabia began to pivot towards Iran. During an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) at the beginning of October, Iranian Government Spokesman Ali Rabiei confirmed that Iran’s leadership had received a message from Riyadh, and tactfully added that Tehran would welcome Saudi Arabia’s overtures towards peace. And at the end of September, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud surprised Americans by talking about Iran and its allies without any signs of aggression and even, at times, in a friendly manner during an interview with the CBS network.

And while Saudi Arabia is searching for intermediaries who could pass on a request to start peace negotiations to Iran, the Arab Emirates (a neighbor, a friend and an ally to the Kingdom) is re-establishing communication channels with the Mullah’s regime behind the scenes. Egyptian media outlet NoonPost has reported about the secret visits by UAE Sheikhs to Tehran and murky deals concluded there.

So Iran really is not Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya. Hence fittingly, Prime Minister of Pakistan, taking Iran’s military might into account, recently expressed his doubts about whether the West fully comprehended the consequences of the conflict with Iran or not, and issued a stark warning that there would not be a repeat of the “Iraqi scenario” there. It is, therefore, highly risky to start a war against the Islamic Republic of Iran even for the United States.

Vladimir Platov, an expert on the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Trump warns U.S. 'may have to get in wars'

The president specifically threatens to hit Iran "like they've never been hit before" if the regime provokes Washington.

By Quint Forgey

October 22, 2019 "Information Clearing House" -  President Donald Trump on Monday offered a confusing description of his foreign policy priorities as commander in chief — insisting that he is working to bring home American soldiers, while warning the U.S. may soon enter into new military conflicts.

“I'm trying to get out of wars. We may have to get in wars, too. OK? We may have to get in wars,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

“We're better prepared than we've ever been,” he continued. “If Iran does something, they'll be hit like they've never been hit before. I mean, we have things that we're looking at.”

The remarks from the president come as his administration confronts escalating tensions across the Middle East and navigates new troop movements in the region.

Trump in recent days has sought to promote a temporary cease-fire agreement Vice President Mike Pence negotiated last week with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, aimed at halting the slaughter of U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters in Syria by Turkish forces.

Meanwhile, Trump’s directive to withdraw the last American service members from Syria has forced congressional lawmakers and Pentagon officials to reckon with the threat of a potential resurgence by Islamic State militants.

The more than 700 evacuated U.S. soldiers will be relocated to western Iraq, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Saturday, although new media reports indicate Trump is considering keeping a few hundred soldiers in northeastern Syria to counter advances by Syrian and Russian forces into the country's lucrative oil fields.

Esper also announced earlier this month that the administration would be deploying another wave of troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the kingdom from Iran’s regime, despite Trump’s campaign trail pledge to halt U.S. involvement in “endless wars.”

A wild theory about Trump is a sign of natural despair and desperation

By Martin Love

NORTH CAROLINA - Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term and (insha’a Allah) last term as U.S. President and by most sane accounts he’s been a looming disaster so far -- a disaster that remains mostly prospective because of things already done and decided and which await some kind of unpleasant denouement.

The U.S. economy is doing well, relative to most others, and unemployment is low even if most jobs are menial and most Americans are eyeballs deep in debt. But this is almost certainly because of a dump of $trillions in printed money in to the economy and nearly zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve Bank. This was supposed to be “temporary” and the Fed was supposed to “normalize” policy…but found last autumn it cannot when asset prices plummeted. This Fed’s latest action is akin to keeping a sick patient alive with daily injections of high-grade heroin. Somewhere down the road the entire monetary system will likely crash and have to be replaced with something new. The entire world will be suffering a depression in the transition.

Trump has warped U.S. foreign policy more than any recent President, trashing agreements and treaties right and left (such as the JCPOA and the INF and the Paris Accords on climate). The Trump administration has given green lights to apartheid Israel to do as it pleases, and also to the Saudis. It has sanctioned and threatened allies and alleged foes alike over a host of issues. It is going for overt regime change and resource theft in Venezuela and has largely supported right-wing dictators, not proponents of democracy, everywhere.

The accounts of malfeasance and ill-advised moves could run for pages, and to boot, Trump is a proven liar, a con artist, a tax cheat, a womanizer of the worst kind, a poor businessman, a real estate grifter and a slob (all by his own admission intended or not) and he probably ought to be in prison, but oddly enough his “base” of support in the U.S. happens to be evangelical Christians (and far right wing lunatics and white supremacists) who, in truth, are anything but “Christian” and give the entire “faith” a bad name. As horrified as many Democrats are by Trump, they lack credibility but for a few brave, outstanding voices in Congress that include Rep. Ilhan Omar and 2020 Presidential candidate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.

The Democratic Party leaders may be just as corrupted as the Republicans under Trump, and Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Speaker, claims any attempt to impeach Trump is misguided because Trump is “not worth the effort”. This of course makes no sense at all, for if Trump is worthless, then he surely ought to be impeached as fast as possible.

Never before in the history of the United States has the country been in such potentially dire straits longer term, been governed so badly, and had such senseless and destructive and baldly desperate foreign policies – ones based on greed, hubris, insecurity, paranoia, xenophobia and, worst of all, abysmal ignorance. Countries seem to get the governments and leaders they deserve. The U.S. is a glaring example of this, it seems.

But is there something else afoot with Trump?

One indication of how desperate some relatively thoughtful Americans are for good news and positive directions (who are outside of government) is that they think Trump is far more of a master tactician – which is unlikely although the presumption is based on some reasonable policy postures he had during his campaign for the While House in 2016.

It has been anyway put forth that Trump has figured out that the sole way to “Make America Great Again”, assuming it ever was, is to disentangle from perpetual wars that have done nothing for U.S. security, have virtually bankrupted the country, bolstered a useless system of costly alliances and demonized Russia, which is not an enemy of the U.S.

However, Trump, the theory goes, realized he could do little to change any of this because the notion that the U.S. is “indispensable” and “exceptional” has been so deeply embedded in government and has prevailed against all rational odds particularly overseas. Thus, he has, the theory advances, had to adopt a back-door approach to force change by OFFENDING just about everyone on the planet to force them to unilaterally disengage from the U.S. (One example of Trump offense among others is his recent demand that allies pay for the maintenance of U.S. troops and “protection” on their own soil.)

But still, nothing has really happened yet.

America’s European allies have not yet quit the U.S., but are charting some mildly independent courses including a clear aversion to Trump’s and the Zionists’ and Saudis’ dreams of attacking Iran. And the JCPOA remains alive and the signatories (aside from the U.S.) seem to be honoring it if not doing everything they can to ensure their trade with Iran is not eliminated by U.S. sanctions. (This despite Mike Pence’s exhortation to U.S. allies to quit the JCPOA in Warsaw, which fell flat.) And no one has so far pulled out of useless NATO, too. Thus, what has occurred so far is only that some obvious cracks are growing between U.S. and allies and according to some theorists, this is a SUCCESS for Trump’s alleged schemes to reorder and reorient U.S. priorities more to domestic problems and concerns.

At any rate, desperation even for those who want to believe in positive change (and that Trump is not insane) has become as thick as polar ice, and this is natural, too. But anyone who thinks Donald Trump really understands what he is doing, and has some wildly complicated master plan to impose or transform some decent campaign promises he made in 2016 into real policy, is sadly mistaken. Any President who chooses Mike Pompeo or John Bolton or Elliott Abrams for top positions, all three of them despicable sadists, can’t possibly be thinking of anything but their own survival and the deployment of brute force.