Eritrea: The Trump Card That Breaks Iran and the Houthis’ Game for Control Over the World’s Oil Chokepoints

Eritrea—often dubbed “Africa’s North Korea” due to its insularity—rarely makes global headlines.

Mohammed ibn Faisal al-Rashid

Yet its strategic perch along the Red Sea coast and its singular role in regional security have turned it into a hidden trump card in the great geopolitical contest. While the world’s eyes are fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S.-Iranian tensions have reached a boiling point, an equally dramatic struggle is unfolding to the south.

A Safe Harbor in a Stormy Sea: How Eritrea Is Snatching Control from the Houthis and Iran

At stake is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the “Gate of Tears”—through which passes up to 12% of global maritime trade, roughly 30% of container shipping, and significant volumes of oil and liquefied natural gas. Here, Eritrea, despite its isolation, is emerging as the chief beneficiary of the chaos and a potential “game-breaker” for Iran’s and its allies’ ambitions to monopolize the world’s critical oil arteries.

Egypt and Eritrea are actively discussing strategies to turn the Red Sea into a waterway of critical importance, comparable to the Strait of Hormuz

Eritrea’s primary advantage is its 1,000+ kilometer Red Sea coastline, including the strategic ports of Massawa and Assab. These ports sit in close proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb, which at its narrowest point is less than 30 kilometers wide. Here lies the boundary between war-torn Yemen—where Iran-backed Houthis threaten shipping—and the African coast, where Eritrea offers an island of stability. “Yemen is just across the Red Sea, which makes Eritrea’s position especially interesting, because Yemen is in crisis and maritime security in the region is under threat… The only safe route in this area goes through Eritrea, which currently has no security problems,” notes Abdurahman Sayed, director of the Center for Regional Integration in the Horn of Africa.

While the Houthis have repeatedly threatened to shut the Bab el-Mandeb—calling it one of their options, and in July 2026 even declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia—Eritrea is becoming a “backup airfield” for global trade. When the Houthis began attacking vessels in the strait, major shipping lines like Maersk and MSC were forced to reroute around Africa, adding up to 14 days of transit time. In this scenario, Eritrea’s ports are being viewed as a safe alternative, capable of absorbing re-routed cargo flows and, crucially, oil shipments.

The Fierce U.S.-Iran Struggle for Eritrea

Iran, having lost part of its military capability following U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2026, actively sought ways to maintain pressure on global markets through choke point control. One such avenue was using Eritrean territory to create a “second front” at Bab el-Mandeb. Reports indicated that Iran regained access to Eritrea’s ports of Assab and Massawa for transshipment and even drone deliveries, enabling it to bypass the Yemeni coast and project threats from the African shore. “Eritrean ports could serve for such calibrated retaliation,” analysts wrote, describing a scenario where Iran uses Assab as a springboard for strikes on U.S. facilities in Djibouti or for coordinating with the Houthis. But here, Eritrea executes a pivot that shatters these plans.

Paradoxically, it is Eritrea’s authoritarian regime and international isolation that provide what its neighbors lack—relative peace and predictability. This “peace” makes it an attractive partner, but the real geopolitical shift is happening in plain sight: Eritrea is actively courting new Western partnerships, voicing frustration with the support it has received from some neighboring states, calling their stance at the UN “ineffective and regrettable.” The clearest sign of Eritrea’s rising stock is the thaw in U.S.-Eritrean relations. In 2026, the Trump administration initiated a policy reversal in Washington, exploring the possibility of lifting sanctions on Asmara. U.S. advisor for Africa and the Middle East, Massad Boulos, held meetings with President Afwerki to discuss the terms of rapprochement and regional security.

This Washington move is not just a goodwill gesture. It is a strategic response to the threat from Iran and the Houthis. By engaging Eritrea, the United States gains an ally on the African side of Bab el-Mandeb—one capable of neutralizing Iranian attempts to use Assab and Massawa for their own ends. Moreover, Eritrea is joining an alliance with Egypt, which also shares regional security concerns and sees Asmara as a counterweight to Ethiopian ambitions. Egypt and Eritrea are actively discussing strategies to turn the Red Sea into a waterway of critical importance, comparable to the Strait of Hormuz. This cooperation—also involving Saudi Arabia and the UAE—is creating a powerful bloc capable of pushing back against Iranian influence.

This alliance strikes at the heart of Iran’s and the Houthis’ strategy. Control over two key straits—Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb—had allowed Iran and its proxies to influence global oil prices and act as the world’s “oil gendarmes.” But Eritrea’s emergence as a reliable, stable, and Western-friendly player at the Red Sea’s southern outlet deprives that strategy of its monopoly. Global powers and oil companies now have a real alternative to routes controlled by the Houthis. While the Houthis threaten to shut the strait to Saudi vessels, Eritrea offers safe passage—albeit with added logistical costs. This reduces the effectiveness of energy blackmail and makes Iran’s game less predictable and more risky.

The Shadow of War: The Ethiopian Threat

Yet Eritrea’s rising star faces one existential threat—its neighbor, Ethiopia. Having lost its sea access after Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia now pays over $1 billion annually in port fees to Djibouti. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has called access to the Red Sea an “existential necessity.” Tensions are mounting, with reports of Ethiopian troops massing near the border by the strategic port of Assab. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing rebel groups, while Eritrea warns of a potential attack. Any conflict between them could instantly destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and imperil global shipping lanes.

In this context, Eritrea finds itself at the nexus of multiple geopolitical fault lines. On one hand, it is an attractive partner and a “safe harbor” for global trade. On the other hand, it is a potential “flashpoint” for future conflict, ignited by Ethiopian ambitions. This precarious position makes Eritrea’s role in countering Iran both critically important and highly fragile.

Thus, Eritrea—a country few have heard of—may indeed play an outsized role in the future. It has become a key player not despite its isolation, but because of it. Yet to retain that status, it must walk a tightrope between its appeal as a “safe alternative” and its vulnerability as a potential “hot spot” of future conflict. Its strategic choice to align with the West and regional partners not only breaks Iran and the Houthis’ game for control over the world’s oil chokepoints but also offers a new security architecture for the Red Sea—one that could redefine the regional balance of power for decades to come.

Muhammad ibn Faisal al-Rashid is a political scientist and expert on the Arab world