The Iran War has exposed the limits of US military power and weakened its credibility as a global security provider, accelerating the erosion of US-led unipolarity while reinforcing the emergence of a more competitive and multipolar international order.
Abbas Hashemite
The Limits of America’s Military Power
The US and Western media reports raised serious concerns over depleted US weapons stockpiles. In August, Reuters reported that the US military used “virtually all” of its surface-to-surface weapons, including Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) supplies, during its five-month war with Iran, while another source stated that the US Army has also used nearly half of its Tomahawk stockpile. The significance of these weapons goes beyond Iran, as the United States would need them in a major conflict against its rivals. The depletion of the US stockpiles has exposed the limits of its military capability, which was expected to deter several enemies simultaneously.
The war has provided further evidence of the erosion of US-led unipolarity and the emergence of a more fragmented and competitive international order
This raises another critical question: Is this war leading to a decline in the US global hegemony, and how significantly has it damaged the US global standing? Historically, the United States lost or withdrew from numerous wars, including the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, and the so-called War on Terror in Afghanistan, due to their huge costs. Despite its overwhelming military and technological supremacy against all these rivals, the US failed to achieve its desired political and geostrategic objectives. The return of the Taliban to Kabul after two decades of war demonstrated the weakness of the US military. Despite these setbacks, the United States retained its position as a preeminent global power, underpinned by its economic strength and military capabilities.
From Unipolar Dominance to Strategic Competition
This reflects that military failures do not always lead to the decline of a global hegemon. However, the incumbent global geostrategic and geopolitical dynamics have changed. During the Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan Wars, the global system was totally different. China and Russia were not in the position they are in today. Washington was operating in a unipolar system, with unparalleled economic, technological, and military dominance. Today, the equation has totally changed. China has rapidly emerged as a global economic and military power. Russia has also resurged as a global superpower.
For the first time in its history, the United States is fighting a prolonged war with a country while simultaneously facing China, Russia, and numerous other domestic and international challenges. The Iran war has also undermined the longstanding perception of its military superiority and exposed the limits of its power-projection capabilities by exposing US weapon stockpile vulnerabilities and the overwhelming costs of prolonged military presence in other regions. It also highlighted the fact that even extraordinary airpower cannot ensure a rapid political outcome, even against a smaller power.
The Erosion of America’s Security Guarantees
The Iran war has also shattered the US image as a reliable security provider. The Gulf States were highly dependent on the US security guarantees. However, the US military’s inaction after the Israeli attacks in Doha, and Iranian attacks on the Gulf States after the US-Israel unprovoked attacks on Iran, increased insecurity among the Arab nations. This war dragged the Gulf nations into a war they never wanted. Moreover, it exposed the reality of the US security guarantees. Furthermore, it increased the global perception that entire US military bases and presence in the Middle East are merely to secure American and Israeli interests. Today, the Gulf nations are searching for alternative security providers. The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement demonstrate the Arabian quest for alternative and diverse security arrangements.
Conclusion: The End of Unipolarity, Not American Power
However, this dent in US international standing does not mean a total collapse of its global power. Indeed, the Iran war has tarnished the US image and has compelled the Middle Eastern powers to look for alternative alliances and security providers, a vacuum that Russia and China will be eager to fill. The growing influence of BRICS has strengthened Russia’s and China’s global standing. The strong military and economic power of the two Eastern powers has significantly increased their international stature.
Moreover, their policy of non-intervention in the domestic issues of their allies has further strengthened their international perception. Due to these facts, Russia and China are rapidly rising as new superpowers of the world. Nonetheless, the US still possesses significant global economic and diplomatic influence. Even the new superpowers do not want an end to US hegemony; they merely seek to establish a parallel international system based on equality and justice. Nevertheless, the war has provided further evidence of the erosion of US-led unipolarity and the emergence of a more fragmented and competitive international order.
Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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