Strategic Shift in Global Politics

Editor

The G7 summit is a gathering of Western rulers where decisions about how to manage the world’s affairs to benefit the West are made. Last year’s summit in Canada ended in disarray when US President Donald Trump walked out in a huff. A year, however, is a long time in politics. At this year’s summit in Biarritz, France, Trump was put in his place: he is not the master of the world.

This was most clearly demonstrated by the surprise arrival of Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the G7 meeting at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron. Trump was informed once Dr. Zarif was there, a fact Trump had to meekly accept. It also reflected the strategic rift between the EU and US. This is not only the result of Trump’s reckless and simplistic policies but also due to Iran’s calculated and bold moves.

Dr. Zarif brought some proposals relating to the nuclear deal. The G7 leaders held detailed discussions about them. Then they updated the Iranian foreign minister “in order to keep closing the gap… on the conditions with which we could de-escalate the tensions and create breathing space for negotiations,” according to a spokesperson of the French presidency.

The Europeans held discussions with Iran by keeping the US at bay. This indicates that EU leaders are beginning to realize they must go it alone. This is a major blow to the US. It does not mean that Washington will cease to have influence over the EU’s interactions with Islamic Iran, but Washington will no longer be able to dictate.

There is need to focus on the future of the nuclear deal after Zarif’s visit. Continuation of the nuclear treaty provides Iran and the EU with political space. Both sides wish to capitalize on it. At the moment, this benefits all sides. The Europeans can “legitimately” pretend they don’t want to destroy the only functioning Islamic governing system and Iran can pretend that its nuclear agreement means the possibility of a wider regional settlement with NATO powers. This situation is unlikely to change until the next US presidential elections. Trump has got the US into a diplomatic trap; he cannot go back to the original deal without losing face. Thus, it seems likely the Europeans will keep the nuclear deal alive by offering limited economic concessions to Iran.

The Europeans’ primary concern is what happens if Trump is re-elected, a possibility that cannot be dismissed. If re-elected, Trump’s second term will be a lot more reckless. An egotistical maniac and an ignoramus to boot, in charge of a powerful country with no plan for strategic issues means a powder keg waiting to explode.

The EU’s workable agreements will also face sabotage by US puppets in the Arabian Peninsula. The autocratic regimes in the Persian Gulf do not realize how strongly the American public dislikes Trump and most importantly the US governing institutions; they have placed all their eggs in one basket. Controlling the illegitimate Gulf regimes is not a problem in the long run but they can still do tactical damage, mainly by escalating tensions in the region through their proxies and indulging in vile sectarian propaganda. The erratic policies of the Persian Gulf potentates can be effectively contained by Tehran and Ankara forming a practical working relationship. This is already taking place but both Turkey and Iran need to focus more on issues they agree on rather than some of their differences. This procedure of alliance building also needs to be backed by bold political moves against US-backed autocracies in the Persian Gulf.

Iran will continue to be a major regional player without whose consent the EU cannot develop constructive policies in the Muslim East. The Europeans are interested in maintaining the deal for their own long-term political and economic goals in the Muslim East. Tehran fully realizes this and will assess every step of contact with the EU through a long-term prism. It appears that the EU has met its match in the Muslim East, a chess player whose sights are fixed on long-term goals.

It is also interesting to note that while Dr. Zarif is under US sanctions, he arrived at the G7 meeting and Trump could not do a damn thing about it.

Why G7 Is No Longer Relevant

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TEHRAN (FNA)- G7 leaders are free to meet in Biarritz, France for the 45th G7 Summit, but the grouping is losing relevance by the day.

This is certainly not because almost every single G7 leader attending the summit is in some kind of trouble, whether it's economic, political or simply health-related. Nor is it because the grouping is becoming economically insignificant. After all, it still represents 40 percent of the global economic output and incorporate some of the world’s most innovative industrial powerhouses.

The lack of legitimacy isn't the culprit as the grouping has never been trying to be globally representative or come up with binding resolutions that have to be implemented multilaterally by countries that do not sit at the table. So, what's the problem with the G7? It is the value erosion that is causing the seemingly irreversible decline of the G7.

The G7 process was first established in the mid-1970s in the wake of the economic recessions caused by the 1973 oil crisis and the infamous Nixon shock. Besides coordinating economic policies to assist in each other’s economic recovery efforts, the G7 grouping more fundamentally sees itself as a community of like-minded countries that uphold such supposedly universal values as liberal democracy, peace and stability, and economic prosperity and sustainable development. The very “like-mindedness” on those values is the glue that has been holding G7 countries together for the past decades. But the degree of “like-mindedness” among G7 members is quickly dissipating in recent years.

Under President Trump, the United States is slipping towards an illiberal democracy. The erratic US president governs with a dictatorial leadership style, advances the alternative fact campaign that suppresses truth and press freedom, and makes repeated, humiliating speeches or running comments deeply hurting ethnic minorities, females, religious groups and foreign leaders in the name of making America great again.

Across the Atlantic in the UK, Boris Johnson with his signature divisive politics and the reckless “do-or-die” attitude towards Brexit on October 31 is making the country a tyranny of (52 percent) majority. The political rights and economic appeal of the 48 percent of the British population who voted to remain in the European Union are being appallingly trashed. And the sort of sensible center-ground politics that we normally associate with a liberal democracy is dying in the UK.

How about peace and stability? Indeed, G7 members, notably France, Germany, the UK and the European Union, played an instrumental role in brokering the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal.

It is hard to overstate the importance of the JCPOA for the sake of global security. But Trump pulled the US out of the deal in May 2018 and unilaterally imposed sanctions on Iran despite the opposition shown by the other signatories, including its close G7 allies. The withdrawal caused internal cleavage within G7 as the European Union had to announce countermeasures - at least in words - to preserve the integrity of the agreement.

And finally, in relation to economics and trade, the G7 is no longer the go-to forum to handle global economic affairs. The Group of 20, thanks to the participation of a wider collection of systemically important economies, is replacing G7 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation.

There are enormous trade tensions between G7 members as well. Without exaggeration, the United States and the European Union are literally on the brink of a full-blown trade war that mirrors the on-going Sino-American trade conflicts.

Trump has earlier slapped national security tariffs on 

European iron and steel exports and is threatening Europe's auto and aeroplane industries with renewed stiff punitive tariffs. Trump is also publicly flirting with Johnson about the prospect of striking a post-Brexit bilateral US-UK trade deal at the expense of the interest of the European Union in the Brexit negotiations.

Meanwhile, the bullying Trump administration has inserted into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement a blatantly shameful anti-China article against the sovereign will of Canada which eyes a separate trade deal with China, and is imposing upon Japan a lopsided Trade Agreement on Goods that would force Tokyo to asymmetrically open up its auto and agricultural industries to American businesses.

The last G7 Summit held in Canada was believed to be the lowest point in the history of G7. This judgement could soon be a false statement after Biarritz. With heightened tensions plaguing the cohesion of G7 in the absence of unwavering commitments the common values that ideologically brought them together in the first place, there should be deep rethink if the bloc still has its place on the stage of world politics.

Rifts Emerge Between Trump and Western Allies at G7 Summit

French President Emmanuel Macron and President Donald Trump participate in a G-7 Working Session on the Global Economy, Foreign Policy, and Security Affairs the G-7 summit in Biarritz, France August 25, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump insisted on Sunday that he was getting along well with leaders at a G7 summit in France, but rifts emerged with his Western allies on issues ranging from his trade war with China to Iran, North Korea and Russia.

The G7 gathering is taking place against a backdrop of worries about a global economic downturn and coincides with an era of international disunity across an array of matters.

“Before I arrived in France, the Fake and Disgusting News was saying that relations with the 6 others countries in the G-7 are very tense, and that the two days of meetings will be a disaster,” Trump wrote on Twitter shortly before meeting new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

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“Well, we are having very good meetings, the Leaders are getting along very well, and our Country, economically, is doing great - the talk of the world!”

Tensions were quickly on show, however, as the first full day of talks between the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States got underway in the Basque coast resort of Biarritz in southwest France.

Before leaving Washington Trump stepped up his tariff war with Beijing in a battle between the world’s two largest economies that has spooked financial markets, and called on U.S. companies to move out of China.

Britain’s Johnson voiced concern on Saturday about creeping protectionism and said those who support tariffs “are at risk of incurring the blame for the downturn in the global economy”. Sitting across from Trump on Sunday, he said: “We’re in favor of trade peace on the whole, and dialing it down if we can.”

Asked if he was being pressed by allies to relent in his standoff with China, Trump said: “I think they respect the trade war.”

“NICHE ISSUES”

Underlining the multilateral discord even before the summit got underway, Trump threatened the meeting’s host, saying Washington would tax French wine “like they’ve never seen before” unless Paris dropped a digital tax on U.S. technology companies.

Leaping into the fray, European Council President Donald Tusk, who takes part in the G7 discussions, warned the EU would respond “in-kind” if Trump acted on his threat.

“This may be the last moment to restore our political community,” Tusk told reporters on Saturday, giving a bleak assessment of Western relations.

Looking to broaden the scope of the debate, French President Emmanuel Macron has invited several African leaders to discuss problems facing their continent, while leaders from India, Australia, Chile and Spain are due to attend a dinner on Sunday where the focus will be on the environment and other issues.

However, senior U.S. officials accused Macron of looking “to fracture the G7” by focusing on “niche issues” rather than major global concerns.

France denied this, pointing to Sunday’s initial session covering the economy, trade and security - areas that used to draw easy consensus but are now sources of great friction.

Trump upended last year’s G7 meeting in Canada, walking out early and disassociating himself from the final communique.

DIFFERENCES OVER IRAN, NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA

In Biarritz, Trump appeared to brush aside French efforts to mediate with Iran, saying that while he was happy for Macron to reach out to Tehran to defuse tensions he would carry on with his own initiatives.

European leaders have struggled to tamp down the brewing confrontation between Iran and the United States since Trump pulled his country out of Iran’s internationally brokered 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions on the Iranian economy.

France said G7 leaders had agreed that Macron should hold talks and pass on messages to Iran. However, Trump, who has pushed a maximum pressure policy on Iran, distanced himself from the proposal, saying he had not even discussed it.

Trump also appeared at odds with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe over the seriousness of North Korea’s series of short-range missile launches.

Trump, who prizes his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, told reporters the launches did not violate an agreement and were in line with what others were doing. Abe, standing beside him, said they breached U.N. resolutions.

The missile launches have complicated attempts to restart talks between U.S. and North Korean negotiators over the future of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

There was also disagreement in Biarritz over Trump’s calls for Russia to be readmitted to the group of advanced economies.

Johnson said G7 leaders had a “lively” discussion about Russia and Trump, asked if his case for Moscow to be brought back into the fold had made headway, said it was a “work in progress”.

At the start of the day, Trump said Britain would have a major trade deal with Washington after it leaves the European Union. Asked what his advice on Brexit was for Johnson, he replied: “He needs no advice, he is the right man for the job”.

While the transatlantic rift is the starkest, there are also deep divisions within the European camp, with Johnson making his G7 debut at a time when he is struggling to persuade EU capitals to renegotiate Britain’s exit from the bloc, which Johnson has said will happen on Oct. 31 come what may.

Macron added to the internal EU strains by unexpectedly threatening on Friday to block an EU trade deal with a group of South American states over Brazil’s handling of fires that are ravaging the Amazon rainforest.

Germany and Britain both voiced deep concern about the fires, but said shooting down the ambitious Mercosur trade accord would not help save the Amazon.