The United States and Iran have finally signed a peace deal due to the persistent efforts of regional powers. Nevertheless, several challenges still impede the realization of a sustained regional peace.
Abbas Hashemite
The Peace Framework and the Challenges Ahead
The Arab countries now seem interested in expanding their strategic alliance to other nations, especially Pakistan, Russia, China, India, and Turkey
Iran’s strong retaliation to the US strikes and its uncompromising stance led to a noticeable shift in US President Donald Trump’s aggressive and arrogant tone. However, numerous issues still need to be addressed to establish long-term peace in the region. These challenges include the release of frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of sanctions on Iran, deferred talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, and the future governance of the Hormuz Strait. Moreover, Israel’s refusal to accept this framework and cooperate with the US to establish regional peace and its invasion of Lebanon could jeopardize the peace process.
Pakistan’s Diplomatic Role in Bridging the Divide
Pakistan played a critical role in bringing the sides to the negotiation table. Despite Islamabad’s active diplomatic engagement, the mediation process was beset by multiple challenges and competing interests. However, several countries in the region supported Pakistan in this challenging diplomatic task. In April, Pakistan organized the first round of peace talks, known as the Islamabad Talks. Although no considerable progress was made during this round, it helped to keep the backdoor diplomatic channels open. Gulf nations put significant pressure on President Trump to end this unnecessary war. However, building trust between the adversaries still remains a significant challenge.
Why the United States Failed to Achieve Its Objectives
One of the major impacts of this war is that the world now views the United States as a defeated nation. This war has also weakened its position as a global hegemon. The joint US-Israel Operation Epic Fury fell short of achieving any of its intended objectives. Despite joint attacks and bombings by two of the world’s strongest military powers, killing Iran’s key military and civil leadership and wiping out much of its infrastructure, the operation was not able to coerce Tehran to capitulate. The US naval blockade of the Iranian ports and Trump’s threats of wiping out the whole Persian civilization also proved ineffective.
The key reason for this failure is Trump’s miscalculation about Iran’s resilience. The Trump administration assumed that Iran would prove to be another Venezuela. However, Iran’s strong retaliation and uncompromising stance of its civilian and military leadership forced Trump to sign a framework for peace on Iran’s terms. According to the released details of the framework, the nuclear issue, which the US and Israel used as a justification for their joint attack on Iran, has been deferred to the upcoming diplomatic talks. These developments illustrate that Iran, despite its significant losses, has emerged as a much stronger military and diplomatic power from this conflict. This war has made Tehran a symbol of resistance against Western aggression.
This war has also weakened Trump’s position domestically. His decision to attack Iran has divided his support base; many of his voters are disappointed over his reckless decisions. This war also resulted in increasing global inflation and alienating the US allies, who described it as an illegal war. This war has severely affected the economies of Washington’s European allies. The ending of hostilities in Lebanon is a crucial part of the framework. Therefore, the most significant challenge for President Trump is to prevent Israel from undermining the ongoing peace process. Israel has already intensified its bombing campaign in Lebanon since the announcement of an agreement between Tehran and Washington over the basic framework. Israel has a significant influence on the US establishment. Therefore, this framework can cause significant political damage to Donald Trump.
A New Strategic Landscape in the Middle East
The US-Iran war has also permanently changed the strategic landscape of the Middle East. The Gulf nations have always been highly dependent on the United States for their defense and security. However, the recent Iranian strikes on the Gulf countries have revealed that the US is neither a reliable ally nor a dependable security provider. Therefore, the Arab countries now seem interested in expanding their strategic alliance to other nations, especially Pakistan, Russia, China, India, and Turkey. The framework signed between the two sides has opened a diplomatic channel for peace negotiations. The US has already opened the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure on the global supply chain and economy, and lifted sanctions on Iran. However, for a sustained peace process, both sides will have to overcome several obstacles.
Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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