By Professor Abdullahi Danladi
As Ashura approaches, a familiar question hangs over many cities and towns across Nigeria.
Will this year's processions proceed peacefully and without interference, or will Nigerians once again witness scenes that have become all too familiar over the years?
This is not a question born of paranoia. Neither is it the product of rumor or speculation. It is a question rooted in history.
For many participants in Ashura processions, anticipation of the commemoration is often accompanied by another anticipation—the anticipation of how the security agencies and sometimes their hired thugs will react.
Will they behave as professional institutions charged with protecting citizens exercising their constitutional rights?
Or will they once again view a religious procession through the lens of suspicion, confrontation, and excessive force?
The answer remains unknown. But the question itself tells an important story about the state of religious freedom and civil liberties in contemporary Nigeria.
In most societies, the approach of a religious event is accompanied by preparations for worship, reflection, and remembrance. In Nigeria, however, many participants in Ashura processions often find themselves discussing routes, security concerns, possible restrictions, and contingency plans. This reality alone should concern every citizen who values human life and freedom.
The tragedy is that this anxiety did not emerge from nowhere.
Over the years, various Ashura processions, Arba'een marches, Quds Day events, and other religious gatherings have experienced varying degrees of confrontation with security agencies. The details differ from one incident to another, but the cumulative effect has been the creation of a perception that certain religious gatherings are treated not as lawful assemblies of citizens but as security threats requiring extraordinary responses.
Whether that perception is entirely justified or not is beside the point.
The fact that it exists should be a matter of serious reflection for a democratic society.
A state confident in its legitimacy does not fear peaceful citizens walking through the streets carrying banners and expressing their beliefs. A mature democracy does not regard every gathering as a potential battlefield. Professional security institutions do not measure success by the force they deploy but by the peace they preserve.
This year's Quds Day commemoration offered an important lesson.
In the days preceding the event, tensions were high. Many expected the worst. There was apprehension in numerous quarters. Yet the anticipated confrontations largely failed to materialize. The processions took place. Participants marched. Speeches were delivered. People returned home.
Society did not collapse.
Public order did not disappear.
The state did not lose its authority.
Life continued.
The lesson should have been obvious.
Sometimes the most effective exercise of power is restraint.
Sometimes the greatest demonstration of strength is the refusal to use force.
Sometimes peace emerges not because weapons are deployed but because they remain unused.
The silence of the gun often speaks more eloquently than its discharge.
As Ashura approaches, security agencies face a choice.
They can continue to approach religious processions with the mindset of confrontation, thereby reinforcing years of mistrust and suspicion.
Or they can demonstrate that they have evolved beyond old habits and outdated assumptions.
They can show Nigerians that professionalism has replaced reflexive hostility.
They can prove that constitutional rights are not privileges granted at the convenience of authorities but guarantees protected by law.
Most importantly, they can demonstrate that they understand a fundamental principle of democratic governance: citizens exercising their lawful rights are not enemies of the state.
It is worth remembering that Ashura is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria.
It is not an underground activity.
It is not a surprise event.
It is not an unfamiliar occurrence.
Its significance is deeply rooted in the religious convictions of those who commemorate it. Participants do not gather because of temporary political grievances. They gather because they believe that remembering Imam Husayn is a religious and moral obligation.
History has repeatedly demonstrated that convictions of this nature cannot be extinguished through intimidation.
Indeed, one of the enduring lessons of Karbala itself is that force can suppress bodies but cannot suppress ideas.
This is precisely why the annual commemorations continue despite every challenge they have faced.
The processions will take place because Ashura is not dependent upon official approval, political convenience, or public popularity. It is sustained by faith, memory, and conviction.
The real question therefore is not whether the processions will occur.
They will.
The real question is whether the state will rise to the occasion.
Will security agencies finally break with a history that has generated controversy and criticism?
Will they conduct themselves in a manner befitting institutions operating within a constitutional democracy?
Will they recognize that the preservation of peace requires wisdom, patience, and professionalism?
Or will they once again create avoidable tensions around an event that should be allowed to proceed peacefully?
These are legitimate questions.
They are questions that many Nigerians are asking.
They are questions that the coming days will answer.
Ashura itself teaches that every generation is tested.
Individuals are tested.
Communities are tested.
Institutions are tested.
Perhaps this Ashura is also a test for the Nigerian state.
A test of its commitment to constitutional rights.
A test of its democratic maturity.
A test of the professionalism of its security institutions.
A test of whether it has learned anything from the controversies of previous years.
The participants already know what they will do.
They will commemorate Ashura.
The uncertainty lies elsewhere.
The nation now waits to see whether those entrusted with maintaining peace will actually choose peace.
History will record the answer.
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