The Islamabad Memorandum may have opened a diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran, but its future remains fragile. Deep mistrust, conflicting narratives, and Israel’s exclusion cast serious doubt on its durability, raising the possibility that it will prove to be only a temporary pause rather than a lasting peace framework.
Israel is already playing its part to disrupt the negotiations by attacking Lebanon and pressuring the Trump administration
A recent development, however, shows some signs of positivity as Pakistan has accelerated its pace of diplomacy. As per the official reports and statements, the understanding that has been reached between the two warring parties through mediation by Pakistan – being commonly referred to as the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” (IMoU) – has been signed by Iran and the US electronically, with an additional signature by Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif as mediator. Direct talks will be held between Iran and the US on the 19th of June, and as per current reports, the MoU will give the parties 60 days to chalk out a final ‘binding’ agreement.
However, the more pressing issue is not the durability of the MoU in the long term, but whether the parties even agree on what the memorandum contains. Each party is interpreting its clauses using their own lenses, which might eventually end up scrapping the peace deal all together.
Islamabad at the Epicentre of Diplomacy
In early 2025, when Israel was pressuring the US to attack Iran, President Trump issued a statement stating that the Pakistanis “know Iran very well, better than most.” Since the war started, Pakistan has been continuously trying to mediate between the US and Iran, and fortunately, both countries commended and supported Pakistan’s mediation efforts. Since Pakistan has been making efforts to appease and placate Trump and his administration, the country is in Trump’s good books. Likewise, Pakistan’s close and brotherly relations with Iran and its long-standing communication channels have also helped get Iran’s support and diplomatic cooperation. To protect its 900 km long border with Iran, save both countries from making irreversible mistakes and costing human lives, and revive its past position of eminence in global diplomacy, Pakistan has worked tirelessly to present itself as a credible, neutral, and impartial mediator.
What is the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding?
A few days back, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif tweeted that “a final and agreed text” of the peace accord between Iran and the US has been agreed upon, with the next steps yet to be ironed out. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed between Iran and the US has currently marked the official end to the ongoing conflict in all spheres, from Lebanon to Iran, paving the way for further negotiations on sanctions, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and regional security.
Two rounds of negotiations were planned. The first round entailed the signing of the MOU, and the other negotiation round pertains to the final agreement. According to reports, the time duration allocated for stage two negotiations is 60 days, but it might take longer depending on how well negotiations are moving along. As the trust deficit remains key on both sides, two stages of negotiations were vital to eradicate the imminent threat of heavy military intervention.
Inside the MoU: Key Provisions
As per CNN’s report, the following provisions have been announced:
- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
- Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
- Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
- The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
- Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
- The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, the US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurance, transportation, etc.
- The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
- After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
- The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
Will the MoU stand?
Despite the fact that America’s Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian have signed the memorandum electronically, uncertainty still looms. This is because the entire situation is too confusing, with different political personalities giving contrasting statements. The first challenge in this regard is the contradictory interpretations of the MoU. President Trump has claimed that Iran has agreed to ‘NO nuclear weapons,’ while Iranian officials are continuously denying these reports.
Lebanon represents Iran’s red line. “The conclusion of the war will be announced on all fronts, including Lebanon,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. However, Israel is going on the offensive in Lebanon despite the pressure from the Trump administration. According to reports coming out of Israeli media, Netanyahu has told President Trump that Israel is not committed to the Lebanon ceasefire stipulation in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) negotiated between the United States and Iran. Unusually enough, Trump has warned his staunchest ally from derailing peace in the Middle East, saying that “Israel would have been blown up a long time ago, had I not gotten involved,” and that “without the United States, there would be no Israel”.
He also warned Israel’s prime minister to “be more responsible” on Lebanon. He went on to say that, “Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long, and too many people are being killed. You don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you’re looking for somebody. Because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses. And they’re not all Hezbollah, I can tell you. They should have been able to do the job faster. It just goes on forever. And when that happens, it throws a negative light on the big deal, and that’s the deal with Iran.”
This sudden rift between the US and Israel could potentially antagonize Israel even more, causing them to launch more offensives against Iran and Lebanon, since they are not a part of any peace deal. Moreover, it is highly unlikely that the US will use force to stop Israel’s actions, so the strength behind Trump’s statements remains to be seen. Moreover, when reports started circulating about funding for Iran, Trump stated that the U.S. is “not investing 10 cents” and that he has not asked Arab allies to invest in any such fund. He also warned Iran that the memorandum of understanding is not final and “if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.” These statements show the confusion around and the fragility of this MoU from the get-go.
In addition, Iran has also denied US claims about the Strait of Hormuz reaching pre-war levels during the negotiations. Araghchi stated that “the Strait of Hormuz will not be managed in the same way as it was before under Iran’s plans. Iran and Oman have authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is discussing how to regulate maritime traffic through the strait with partners like Oman and China. Over the Hormuz Strait, our weapon will endure forever. Tolls would not be levied by Iran, but service charges would.”
These interpretations raise another issue: there exists no consensus about the topographic and strategic limits covered by the memorandum.
Tactical Deal or Strategic Transformation?
Aside from considerations of strategy, the longevity of the memorandum rests on the constancy of its interpretation within different political discourses. No one can claim that the enmity between the two has ended or even reduced. The US has targeted civilians, bombed school children, and killed the top Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader. Would Iran trust such people? It remains to be seen.
On the other hand, this could be the Trump administration’s strategy to strike a temporary and tactical peace deal with Iran, and the 60-day negotiation period could be exploited. For Trump, the upcoming midterm elections are extremely critical, given the dissatisfaction within the US political circles over Iran. Therefore, by signing a memorandum with Iran, Trump could project his victory and secure his vote bank. And what will happen after this? Strikes could restart, with Israel potentially ready, restocked, and waiting.
Conclusion
“You cannot shake hands with a clenched fist” (Indira Gandhi)
An ironclad peace deal seems like a pipe dream at this point. Although a monumental memorandum has been signed, conflicting statements from both sides are shaking up the situation. Although Pakistan’s mediation is paving the way for some peace settlements, the memorandum’s fragility can’t be ignored. Israel is already playing its part to disrupt the negotiations by attacking Lebanon and pressuring the Trump administration. If the US actually wants to end the war, Israel must be forced to back down, and the US must prove its sincerity by removing Iranian sanctions. The alternative is dire: rising fuel prices, global supply chain disasters, and worst of all, huge losses of human life.
Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs
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