This short-sighted strategy of miscalculation can only lead to a greater disaster for Iranians and the region as a whole
Abdelkader Abderrahmane
Defying international law and putting their own interests before those of the region’s population, the two nations claim to be motivated by the need to halt Tehran’s nuclear programme.
The reality is diametrically opposite. As a nuclear power, Iran would present a counterweight to US and Israeli military hegemony in the region, and a stronger voice of the Global South at the United Nations - a prospect that is unacceptable to Washington and Tel Aviv.
The pretext for the joint attack on Iran fell apart almost instantly.
Omani mediators have confirmed that Iran was willing to accept dramatic curbs on its nuclear programme, to the point that it would never have enough material to create a bomb.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi told CBS News that Iran’s existing stockpiles of enriched uranium would be “blended to the lowest level possible” and converted into fuel, a shift that would be “irreversible”.
Iran was also willing to grant inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency “full access” to its nuclear sites to verify the terms of the agreement, Albusaidi said.
'Historic mistake'
Furthermore, a nuclear deal signed in 2015 between Tehran and world powers was designed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from this accord in 2018. He was likely convinced to do so by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who denounced the nuclear deal as a “historic mistake”.
It is also important to look at the other drivers behind the current conflict - especially the fact that Washington has always wanted Iran to be one of its satellites in the Middle East region.
The 1953 US-British coup against Iran’s then-prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh - who was perceived as too close to the Soviets - cemented the rule of the western-backed shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled until the 1979 revolution.
Israel and the US are pursuing geopolitical and economic hegemony at the expense of the peoples of the region
The shah was a perfect ally for the US and Israel, compliant and protective of western interests. But his installation fomented deep resentment among the Iranian people, leading to the revolt 47 years ago.
The revolution led to a U-turn in Iran’s foreign policy, especially vis-a-vis Washington and Tel Aviv.
The dramatic assault on the American embassy in Tehran in November 1979, and the hostage-taking of dozens of Americans until their release in January 1981, is doubtless on the mind of Trump and his advisers today, as they remain eager to take revenge for this decades-old humiliation.
Beyond their profound animosity towards the current Iranian leadership, another key driver of the conflict is Iran’s vast oil reserves - the third-largest in the world. Controlling these resources would also enable the US-Israeli axis to increasingly cut China out of the equation.
Weakest link
Indeed, China and Russia are the other key factors in this ongoing campaign against Iran. Alongside North Korea, the three nations form the new “axis of evil” that must be dismantled, in the view of Washington and its allies.
China closely cooperates with Iran, having become its largest buyer of oil, and it has also supplied the country with attack drones, as reported by Middle East Eye.
For its part, Iran has provided Russia with drones in its ongoing war against Ukraine - a matter of great concern for western nations.
But the US and Israel knew that it would be far too dangerous and destabilising to attack China or Russia directly, so they opted to target this axis via its weakest link, Iran - thus enabling them to weaken this tripartite alliance at a lower financial and military cost.
In a similar vein, before Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was abducted by US forces, Beijing was a major buyer of the country’s oil. China was subsequently cut off, as Trump forced Caracas closer to Washington. His plan to dry up Iran’s oil exports to China would follow the same pattern.
For Israel, weakening Iran and achieving regime change is central to its strategy of remaining the sole regional military superpower. This plan also entails keeping Arab Gulf states as close partners, if not allies. Once again, Israel and the US are pursuing geopolitical and economic hegemony at the expense of the peoples of the region.
Yet this short-sighted strategy of revenge and miscalculation can only lead to a greater disaster for Iranians and the region as a whole. Iraq stands as a clear example: two decades since the US-led invasion, the country remains unstable, its population still struggling to recover from long-lasting wounds.
With regards to Iran, history shows that it would be a major mistake to believe that a civilisation dating back millenia will indefinitely bow to external pressure. The backlash will be painful - and this all comes at the cost of the next generation.
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