The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader has plunged the Islamic Republic into mourning and war, but the revolutionary state he led for nearly four decades is already mobilizing to defend itself and choose his successor.
The Cradle
News of his martyrdom, along with that of several members of his family, was released less than 24 hours later. Shock spread across the country within minutes. Half an hour after the official announcement at 4:00 am local time, crowds poured into the streets, mosques, and shrines across Iran.
Black-clad mourners gathered in cities and towns nationwide. They cried, chanted, beat their chests, and filled public squares to grieve the leader who had guided their country through embargoes, economic warfare, assassination campaigns, and open confrontation with Washington and Tel Aviv for 37 years.
The 86-year-old ayatollah was far more than a political authority. As the leader of the Islamic Republic, he held ultimate authority over war, peace, and the direction of the state. Yet he was also a theologian, a faqih, and a marja al-taqlid (source of emulation) followed by tens of millions of Shia Muslims across Iran and far beyond its borders.
His religious influence stretched across Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Jammu and Kashmir, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. It also reached millions of Shias in Nigeria and even Sunni Muslims who supported his steadfast opposition to the occupation state and the US-led order in West Asia.
With Khamenei removed from Iran’s political stage, the question immediately surfaced: who will replace him, and can any successor carry the authority accumulated during nearly four decades of leadership?
How Iran’s succession system works
The Islamic Republic has confronted this moment before.
The founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, died on 3 June 1989. Even as mourning ceremonies were underway, the Assembly of Experts – the Majlis-e Khobregan-e Rahbari – convened the next day.
On 4 June, the 88-member clerical body selected a reluctant Ali Hosseini Khamenei as acting supreme leader of the Islamic Republic.
Article 107 of the Iranian constitution assigns this responsibility to the Assembly of Experts, a chamber of Shia and Sunni scholars and jurists. Its mandate is sweeping. Members elect the leader, supervise his performance, and retain the authority to dismiss him if he fails to meet the requirements of the position.
After the constitutional referendum of July 1989 removed the requirement that the leader be a marja, the Assembly of Experts reconvened in August and formally confirmed Khamenei as the permanent supreme leader with 60 of 64 votes.
Following Khamenei’s assassination, attention immediately turned again to the Assembly of Experts. Observers expected an emergency meeting to determine the next supreme leader.
But events unfolded differently.
Iranian armed forces had already begun missile and drone operations against Israeli targets and US military assets across West Asia. In the middle of that confrontation, Tehran announced that an interim leadership council would assume the responsibilities of the leader until the Assembly elects a successor.
The interim leadership council
Article 111 of the Constitution lays out the mechanism for such a situation. If the leader dies, resigns, or is removed, the Assembly of Experts must select a replacement. Until that decision is made, a temporary leadership body takes over the functions of the office.
The article describes this body clearly:
“Until the new Leader is introduced, a shura consisting of the President, the Judiciary Chief, and one of the fuqaha of the Shura-ye Negahban [The Guardian Council] selected by the Expediency Council, shall provisionally assume all of the duties of the Leader.”
That council has now been formed.
It consists of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a jurist drawn from the Guardian Council. The body has already held two sessions.
At first glance, the formation of this council might appear routine. Yet the presence of the relatively lesser-known cleric Arafi has drawn considerable attention inside Iran’s political circles.
The rise of Alireza Arafi
Born in 1959 in the city of Meybod in Yazd province, Alireza Arafi comes from a long-established clerical family. He studied philosophy, mathematics, and Islamic sciences in the hawza (seminary) of Qom, eventually attaining the rank of ayatollah.
Arafi first rose to national prominence in 2008 when Khamenei appointed him head of Al-Mustafa International University, a major global religious institution that trains Shia and Sunni students from dozens of countries. He remained in that position until 2018.
During his tenure, the university expanded its international presence. Graduates of the institution later entered religious, political, and administrative positions in several countries.
Arafi has also delivered sermons during Friday prayers in the holy city of Qom since 2015. In 2016, Khamenei appointed him director of Iran’s seminary system, placing him in charge of religious schools across the country.
In that role, he oversaw both Shia and Sunni seminaries. Observers note that reforms to teaching methods and curriculum modernization accelerated during his tenure.
Arafi has also served for seven years as one of the six jurists of the Guardian Council. Four years ago, the people of Qom elected him as their representative in the Assembly of Experts.
In 2022, he traveled to the Vatican and met the late Pope Francis during a visit aimed at expanding interfaith dialogue.
The fact that Arafi was appointed to several positions by the late leader of the Islamic Republic and eventually introduced as the only jurist in the 3-member leadership Council reflected the extent of trust Khamenei had put in him.
That background has led some observers to speculate that Arafi could emerge as a leading candidate to become the third leader of the Islamic Republic.
Mourning, war, and a waiting nation
As the one of the highest-ranking mujtahids, a marja taqlid, Khamenei was a senior religious authority whose rulings guided millions of followers in matters of faith.
Nearly two-dozen were killed by Pakistani security forces as well as American guards protecting the US consular offices in Lahore and Karachi when angry protesters stormed the buildings.
Shia leaders in occupied Jammu and Kashmir declared 40 days of mourning in honor of the Iranian leader. Similar protests were reported near the US embassy in Baghdad, Iraq.
Inside Iran, the Assembly of Experts has not yet announced a specific timeline for selecting the next leader. Still, some officials signal that the process will not drag on.
According to Ayatollah Muallemi, “Political leanings have nothing to do with the election of the next leader, and a brave, courageous faqih will be voted to prioritize the interests of the country.”
Speculation about possible candidates is already spreading. Alongside Arafi, names frequently mentioned include Sayyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, as well as clerics Mohammad Mehdi Mir-Baqeri, Mohammad Reza Modarresi Yazdi, and Mohsen Araki.
Yet the decision will unfold while Iran is locked in open confrontation with the US and Israel across the Persian Gulf and occupied Palestine.
The war has already expanded across the Gulf region. Iranian ballistic missiles have struck US military installations in Iraq’s Kurdistan region as well as bases in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Iranian drone, ballistic, and hypersonic strikes have also hit military sites, infrastructure, and government facilities across occupied Palestine.
The coffins of US service members have returned home, and US President Donald Trump is still threatening Iran “with force never seen before.” Iranian cities and towns are under constant bombardment.
Despite that pressure, nightly gatherings continue across Iran during the holy month of Ramadan.
Mourners assemble in the main squares of Tehran and other cities. They grieve their assassinated leader. They chant. They pledge loyalty to the Islamic Republic and whoever emerges as its next leader.
One woman speaking to The Cradle expresses the mood on the streets:
“Yes, we are still chanting Allahu Akbar, Khamenei Rahbar [God is Great and Khamenei is the leader], but we will follow and obey anyone who will be our next leader, too.”
For many Iranians, the message is simple. The assassination removed a leader but has not shaken the Islamic Republic itself.
No comments:
Post a Comment