The 12-Day War and Iran’s Missile Capability
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “The military developments in recent years, especially after October 7th and specifically the 12-day war of the Israeli regime against Iran, as well as the attack this regime launched against Qatar, demonstrated that Iran’s missile technology is not only a strategic heritage but also the main pillar of our country’s national security.” He added: “No power in the region possesses the ability to compensate for or replace Iran’s ballistic and drone capabilities, and therefore any weakening or negotiation to limit it will be a direct weakening of Iran’s national security.”
The university professor explained: “Based on real and not hypothetical threats, Iran has sought to enhance its missile capability. The precision of pinpoint missiles, diverse ranges, mobile launch systems, and the ability to penetrate defense shields are achievements that have transformed Iran from an actor under pressure into a deterrent power.” Bakhshayesh Ardestani added: “The fact that Iranian missiles were able to destroy sensitive targets in the 12-day war and practically called into question the effectiveness of the Israeli regime’s multilayered air defense was a turning point in the region’s military equations.” He emphasized: “No independent country negotiates about its defensive and deterrent tools after such a success.”
The analyst explained: “Iran’s operational capability relies on a collection of short-range, medium-range, and long-range ballistic missiles, new-generation cruise missiles, and an extensive drone network. This structure, alongside indigenous air defense systems, has created a combination that makes confronting it impossible for Iran’s enemies.” Ardestani stated: “Today, Iran’s missile doctrine is not only part of its deterrent capability but also part of the security identity of the Islamic Republic of Iran and should not be weakened.”
Bakhshayesh Ardestani continued: “The Israeli regime’s view of Iran’s missile capability is entirely one of fear. They are well aware that the regional military balance is shifting in favor of Iran, and this shift is irreversible.” He added: “For many years, the Israeli regime heavily relied on systems like Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow, but the doctrine of decisive response in Operation True Promise 3 showed that these systems are only effective against limited threats, not against multilayered missile capability.” He added: “These very operational failures have led the Hebrew-Arab axis to increase diplomatic and media pressure to limit Iran’s missile capability, but the reality is that the motivation of these countries is not concern for regional security but rather their inability to establish military balance with Iran.”
The analyst noted: “Today, some regional countries, influenced by the Zionist lobby, are trying to constrain Iran within the framework of a new agreement, but this is merely an unattainable dream. None of these countries in practice can confront Iran’s missile power, and the increase in diplomatic pressure is merely a cover for their military weakness.” He explained: “In the 12-day war, the Israeli regime realized for the first time that Iran’s missile capability, beyond its defensive aspect, is a tool for changing the rules of the game; a tool that forces the enemy to consider Iran’s response capability in its political decisions.”
The university professor further stated: “Under these circumstances, the increased pressure from America and Europe for Iran to enter missile negotiations is not only devoid of legal backing but is also politically bankrupt. The world after the recent war clearly saw that Iran is not an adventurist country but rather a country that neutralizes the direct aggression of the Israeli regime with a precise and calculated response.” He concluded: “Iran’s missile doctrine is fundamentally for deterrence, and any aggressor country will quickly pay the price for its action. Therefore, this doctrine should be strengthened, not limited.”
The Impossibility of Bargaining Over Iran’s Missile Capability
He said, “One of the most significant mistakes of the West is thinking that Iran might bargain over its missile capability. This thinking is completely baseless after the direct experience of the Israeli regime’s aggression and the 12-day war.” He added: “Iran never ties its security to limiting agreements.”
He explained: “In the attack that the Israeli regime carried out against Qatar and in the recent war against Iran, everyone saw that Iran, relying on its missile and drone capability, was able to respond with astonishing precision. This fact made it clear to everyone that Iran must increase its defensive capability more than ever before.”
Bakhshayesh Ardestani stated: “For years, the West has been trying to turn Iran into a disarmed country so that the Israeli regime’s hand would be free for any aggression, but that era is over. Now the West itself knows that without Iran’s missiles, there will be no real balance in the region.” He noted: “In the face of international pressures, Iran must have a clear, transparent, and consistent strategy. This strategy has only one message: Iran’s defensive capability is not negotiable.”
He added, “In recent years, Iran has shown in practice that it is a calculable and predictable power. This means any hostile action against Iran will be met with a proportionate and precise response. This is the same sustainable and real deterrence that must be maintained and strengthened with force.”
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