by Haider Abbas
It is now clear, as it was a foregone conclusion, that there was to be no progress ‘in the call’ Trump had made, as apparently a façade was made that the call was over Russia-Ukraine war, which was not, but in actuality, it was to deter Russia from going ahead to help Iran, after of course when Israel and US are set to attack Iran. It is a daylight fact that Ukraine fight against Russia is only after an unstinted NATO, EU and US support.
This second phase of the coming war between Israel and Iran can happen on any given day. Sergie Lavrov’s visit to KSA is a clear-cut message that Israel ought to be stopped or else the whole Middle-East is soon to get enveloped into the conflict. But, implicitly the visit is also to warn KSA as it is nobody’s guess that KSA will align with USA which by extension is to become a part Israel bloc. Since, KSA is the leader of the pack, all the 22-Arab states are to join Israel against Iran. Here, Iran is to defend itself, which cannot happen until Russia (and China too) comes out openly in support to it. Russia, in order to irk US, has strategically, given recognition to Afghan Taliban government as well.
Perhaps, after the first phase, both US and Israel could not achieve their objectives, which were to first destroy Iran’s nuclear programme and second to kill its supreme leader Ayatullah Khamenie. The new joint-attack is getting delayed as Israel is not able to locate the presence of supreme leader or else attack was to have been already there. There is also a growing speculation that Azerbaijan is to join the war with Israel against Iran. The US Diplomatic Mission has advised to leave Azerbaijan, has informed Eadaily 1. The growing unease between Azerbaijan and Iran can be very easily felt. Iran has sought from Azerbaijan to investigate if its air space was used by Israel to attack Iran and also to come clear of Iran’s President Ibrahim Raisi murder who was killed in a helicopter crash on Azerbaijan-Iran border.
Russia after the phone call made one its biggest attack on Ukraine. Donald Trump, who recently had disgraced Ukraine President Zelenskyy at his Oval office, took a u-turn to call Zelenskky for 40 minutes, in which US has pledged all-out-support to Ukraine. As if there wasn’t such support earlier! But, this is now to make Russia and China to come more closer, as forces opposite to US bloc are now to strengthen Iran and Yemen too. Yemen is engaged into conflict with Israel and US for quite sometime. China, has also openly confirmed that it would never see Russia defeated in Ukraine. Russia and China know it fully well, that if Iran goes down, the next would be Russia and China over Taiwan.
Trump has betrayed probably every aspect of diplomacy. Only months back he was to scrap NATO budget and is now fully on board with NATO to arm Ukraine. It hasn’t been long enough when he called ‘Howdy Modi’, but today wants to impose 500% tariffs on India. Obviously, to punish India to stop buying oil from Russia. His political plank was no new war, stop the ongoing wars, but right now has joined the most pivotal war-mongering machinery in the world.
The body posturing from Iran is getting stiff with every passing day. Iran has already warned this war will be the last war of Israel. Its army chief Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, has cautioned Israel against launching another attack. Iranian retribution will be “paralyzing,” according to Mousavi, and so severe that even the United States might not be able to save Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. What would that mean? It is a clear message that Iran too has been getting inputs from inside Israel about Netanyahu’s locations! There is also a strong probability that unlike earlier, this time, both Russia and China are likely to provide real-time information on Israel, through its satellites. Iran is also fast adapting to China’s search engine baidu instead of google.
US is set to provide its Patriot defence system to Ukraine, which may or for that matter, in all probability make Russia provide its S-400 defence system to Iran too. China’s J-10 C defence system is also to reach Iran all the very soon. Israel main purpose is to kill Khamenie and Iran is to kill Netanyahu, hence, both the nations are now at stake! There are spies of both nations in each country. Iran has caught a number of Israeli agents and so has Israel caught dozens of spies working for Iran, recently elaborated Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
A war, which may trigger the third-world-war is just a trigger away. There is news of a 60 days ceasefire in Gaza as well. Israel has flattened Gaza since October 7, 2023, when Hamas had attacked Israel. Arabs turned-their-eyes away from the ongoing genocide in Gaza. Turkey also did the same. Iran supported Hamas in Gaza to fight Israel. Turkey trained and KSA sponsored Al Jolani takeover of Syria, titled the tide in favour of Israel in Syria, Bashar Al Asad ruled with Russia’s and Iran’s help. Today, it is learnt that Israel is just 10 kms from Syrian capital Damascus, tells News.am 3. What will be the new Middle East is what the outcome of this war would tell.
Haider Abbas is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.
References:
1-https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/07/04/the-us-embassy-asks-its-citizens-to-leave-azerbaijan
2- https://jcpa.org/this-is-how-iran-recruited-dozens-of-israeli-spies/
3- https://news.am/eng/news/892412.html#google_vignette
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