Erdogan’s team is likely betting that public outrage over Imamoglu’s arrest will eventually fade and the economy will recover before the country next goes to the polls
Ragip Soylu
For months, Turkish journalists had been hearing rumours of an ongoing inquiry into Imamoglu, with speculation that his removal from office was imminent.
However, many - including myself - did not believe that the Turkish government would take such a bold step.
Imamoglu, who won the mayoral election just a year ago with 51 percent of the vote, is widely seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival.
On Monday, Imamoglu was officially nominated by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) as its candidate for the next presidential election, which is still three years away.
His arrest marks a turning point, signalling that beyond the corruption allegations, anyone who opposes Erdogan could face imprisonment.
While corruption is widely acknowledged in Turkey as a longstanding issue at both the local and central government level, the selective targeting of opposition politicians suggests that the government’s true goal is not justice but rather the restructuring of the opposition itself.
Many view this move as a new threshold in Erdogan’s grip on power.
Imamoglu has described the charges he faces as 'politically motivated' and called his arrest 'a black stain on our democracy'
Imamoglu has described the charges he faces as “politically motivated” and called his arrest “a black stain on our democracy”.
The opposition has condemned it as a "civil coup" and an attempt to change the political order. Internationally, publications like The Economist now refer to Turkey as a "naked autocracy”.
The economic consequences have been severe. The Istanbul Stock Exchange plunged 16 percent in three days last week, while the Central Bank was forced to spend over $20bn to stabilise the lira.
Turkish financial regulators have scrambled to implement new market rules in an attempt to prevent further selloffs, as investor confidence in the government has been deeply shaken by this unexpected move.
Why did Erdogan take this step now?
A number of recent developments have created conditions that emboldened Erdogan to launch this new crackdown on the opposition.
Favourable foreign policy context
International dynamics currently work in Erdogan’s favour.
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has adopted a nationalist, right-wing approach that largely disregards democratic values.
The initial response from the Trump administration to Imamoglu’s arrest was indifferent, with officials stating that it was "Turkey’s domestic issue" and not of concern to the US.
Europe, facing uncertainty due to Trump’s evolving relationship with Russia - particularly his potential normalisation of ties at Ukraine’s expense - sees Turkey as a crucial player in the western security architecture.
This geopolitical necessity has made European powers hesitant to confront Erdogan aggressively.
Turkey’s military success in Syria has also strengthened Erdogan’s regional influence and bolstered his domestic popularity.
With no significant external pressure - especially in the absence of figures like former US President Joe Biden, who previously challenged Erdogan within Nato - he appears to have a free hand to act as he pleases.
A divided opposition
The opposition coalition that helped Imamoglu rise to power is now showing signs of fragmentation.
One of Imamoglu’s key sources of support was Kurdish voters, particularly through his alliance with the pro-Kurdish Dem Party.
However, recent talks between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the government suggest that Dem has been hesitant to fully back him.
While Imamoglu’s supporters gathered in protest near Istanbul’s city hall, Dem members instead participated in their grand Nowruz celebrations in the city, signalling a reluctance to engage in direct confrontation with the government.
The outcome of the PKK negotiations remains uncertain, particularly regarding jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s potential call for disarmament - an issue still awaiting a definitive response from the organisation.
Time is on Erdogan's side
With three years remaining until the next elections, Erdogan’s team is likely betting that the economic damage can be repaired before voters go to the polls. Public outrage over Imamoglu’s arrest will eventually fade as daily life returns to normal.
Erdogan’s team is likely betting that the economic damage can be repaired before voters go to the polls. Public outrage over Imamoglu’s arrest will eventually fade
His broader strategy to weaken and reshape the opposition will be completed before the next major political test.
The CHP also faces additional dangers.
A court case is currently underway seeking to remove CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel and dissolve the party’s board over allegations of election fraud. The case claims that Ozel secured his position through bribery of party delegates.
In an effort to prevent the court from appointing a government trustee to the party, Ozel has called for an emergency party convention within 15 days.
Meanwhile, there is still a possibility that the government could appoint a trustee to the Istanbul Municipality if the terror-related charges against Imamoglu lead to a formal indictment.
To sum up, Erdogan is discrediting and undermining the opposition which won the local elections in 2024 so he can go to another presidential election with a stronger hand.
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