Political Earthquake in Turkey: Does Erdoğan Have a Way Back?

The arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and one of the most prominent opposition figures in Turkey, has pushed the country's political developments into a critical phase. While some analysts see this move as an attempt to eliminate rivals and secure victory in the upcoming elections, others believe it could fuel public discontent and backfire on the government.

Nournews: The arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul's mayor and Erdoğan’s strongest rival in the next presidential elections, has sparked widespread anger among opposition supporters and civil activists. Reports indicate an increase in street protests in Istanbul and Ankara, prompting security forces to intensify their presence across various parts of these cities. This incident comes amid growing public dissatisfaction with Turkey’s economic conditions, including the depreciation of the lira and rising inflation.

On the other hand, domestic analysts argue that Erdoğan is attempting to reshape the political landscape in his favor. Murat Yetkin, a political analyst on Turkish affairs, believes this move could backfire, as the memory of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) defeat in the 2019 Istanbul elections remains fresh in people's minds. Berk Esen, a professor at Sabancı University, has also warned that such actions might strengthen the unity among opposition parties and increase voter turnout in the next elections.

However, some analysts believe that this situation might boost Erdoğan’s support among his nationalist base. At a time when Erdoğan heavily relies on nationalism and national security rhetoric, part of society may perceive this action as a sign of the government’s firmness against "internal threats."

International Reactions: Rising Pressure on Turkey

İmamoğlu’s arrest has not only sparked reactions within Turkey but has also raised serious concerns internationally. The United States and the European Union have condemned the move, calling it a sign of the shrinking democratic space in Turkey. The U.S. State Department issued a statement warning that such actions could weaken Turkey’s democratic institutions and negatively impact Ankara’s relations with the West.

The European Union has also expressed concern over Turkey’s crackdown on opposition figures, stating that such actions could further complicate Turkey’s EU membership negotiations. Euronews has reported that the European Parliament will soon hold an emergency session to discuss Turkey’s situation.

Regional reactions have varied. Qatar, which maintains close ties with Erdoğan’s government, has taken a cautious stance and refrained from interfering in Turkey’s internal affairs. In contrast, some Arab countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia—both of which have had complicated relations with Turkey in recent years—have seized the opportunity to criticize Erdoğan and his policies.

Future Prospects: Continued Crisis or Political Shift?

The arrest of İmamoğlu has raised many questions about Turkey’s political future. Will Erdoğan succeed in eliminating his rivals and paving the way for his victory in the next elections, or will this move trigger a wave of protests that will be difficult to control?

Analysts believe that ongoing protests and international reactions could put Erdoğan under greater pressure. If demonstrations intensify and public support for the opposition grows, there is a possibility of a political shift in Turkey. On the other hand, if the government manages to suppress the protests and maintain security control, Erdoğan may be able to retain power and further sideline his opponents.

İmamoğlu’s arrest can be seen as one of Erdoğan’s most significant political tests. Although the Turkish government attempts to justify the move legally, the reality is that the opposition now has a powerful rallying cause. Erdoğan, who has previously used judicial measures to curb dissent, now faces a different challenge, as İmamoğlu, a widely popular figure, could emerge as a symbol of resistance. The future of this crisis will depend on the scale of public protests, the response of security forces, and the level of international pressure.