The current war can be examined from various dimensions and it raises many questions about why this war started, the goals of Europe and the role they have defined for themselves in this crisis, the goals of the United States to encourage Russia and Ukraine, the goals of Russia and so on. But there is another important question, and that is how the crisis in Ukraine will affect West Asia and North Africa?
The fact is that the Ukraine crisis has a very serious impact on developments in West Asia. In the economic dimension, with the increase in energy prices, considering that Russia is one of the largest oil and gas exporters in the world, and currently with the cessation of its export cycle, the world economy, which has suffered very severe damage from the the pandemic, can not withstand this severe blow again. That is the main reason why Middle East oil is becoming more important. Iran's oil has been largely removed from the world's oil basket for years due to US sanctions, and countries like Saudi Arabia have made up for the deficit caused by Iran's absence. The question is, will Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries in the region be able to replace Russian oil? In this case, they should increase their oil production and exports and at the same time not allow the price to increase.
Saudi Arabia is not in a suitable position because of its interference in regional crises, such as supporting terrorists in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, as well as the 7-year war with Yemen. The Saudi government is facing a very heavy budget deficit, and an increase in oil prices can somehow save it from the problems caused by the budget deficit. On the other hand, increasing production requires investment in oil production infrastructure, which in the current situation seems unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be able to enter this field. Therefore, it must be said that Saudi Arabia is not able to play a role in this area in line with the will of the United States and the West as in the past. Other Persian Gulf Arab regimes are no exception.
Accordingly, the world must prepare itself for a heavy increase in energy prices, which basically begs the question of whether the world economy can tolerate it. Another option is to refer to Iran and create an opportunity for Iranian oil to enter world markets. That is, either the lifting of sanctions on Iran in the framework of the Vienna talks or the West's neglect in this area, which in both cases will mean the West retreating from Iran and increasing Iran's economic power and increasing Iran's position and influence in the region and the world.
Russia's invasion to Ukraine and the sheer inaction of Western governments, despite all the promises they have made to the Ukrainian government, also send an important message to regional regimes in West Asia that tying their security to the West is wrong and the West is in crisis. Therefore, it seems that they should reconsider their coalitions and alliances. Especially since the United States has been forced to leave the region, and the main reason for leaving is the pressure of the resistance axis. Accordingly, confronting the axis of resistance and increasing tensions with it, and adopting policies that make the axis of resistance sensitive and concerned, should be excluded from the field of choices.
The Zionist regime is also one of the most concerned actors in the region of the Ukraine war. Israel is a regime established by the Western colonial movement and has always had its needed material, political and military support. Accordingly, it is inevitable to align with the West in its choices. The United States and the European Union have taken a stand against Russia in the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, the Zionist regime has had to align itself with them. Because his life still depends on the West.
The Zionist regime is now worried about the consequences of the positions taken against Russia. Especially in relation to settlements, and especially in relation to Syria, which could increase the cost of Israeli aggression against Syria. This is an issue that could strengthen the Assad government as well as the resistance in Syria.
Responding to the question why the United States has been so passive in the face of Russia's invasion to Ukraine, experts attribute the decline in its global standing to four decades of confrontation with Iran. After the Islamic Revolution and the establishment of the Islamic system, Iran has always faced American hostilities, but due to the revolutionary spirit and the Ashura culture of Iranian society, it has never fallen short of the United States, and Iran has taken actions in line with its national interests. It began with the capture of the US embassy in Iran and continued with clashes with US forces during the eight-year war with the Ba'athists in Iraq, the arrest of US sailors, the targeting a $ 200 million Triton drone and the largest US military base in the region, Ayn al Asad in western Iraq. As the Washington Post has pointed out in an analysis, the US mistake was the confrontation with Iran, and this confrontation has led the United States to lose its hegemony in the world. Accordingly, given the aggressive and belligerent behavior of the United States throughout history, the United States is now in a special situation where it has lost the power of risk to engage in new wars, and it must be said that this was a favor from Iran to the world.
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