In the three days since the start of the Russian military operation on Ukrainian soil, the Russians have been able to make considerable progress, and there has been no sign of Western military support for Kiev, leaving observers and analysts with little speculations about a mentionable Ukrainian resistance to the Russian advances. According to Russian media, Russian armored vehicles have arrived to northern suburbs of the capital Kiev.
Meanwhile, what looks very important is getting an understanding of the Russian goals behind the operation in Ukraine and Putin's dreams.
Historical humiliation of Russia
Certainly, Ukraine crisis cannot be separated from the historical and now widespread tensions between Russia and the US-led Western world. In fact, on the one hand, the Ukrainian crisis should be considered part of the larger puzzle of the West-Russia confrontation in Eastern Europe, and on the other hand, this crisis is not limited to recent developments and the Russian-Western conflict over Ukraine but its roots should be sought in historical humiliation the Russians experienced after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and it remained in their historical memory as a tragic defeat by the West because its reduced them from an international superpower to a third world country.
In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, when a pro-Western government came to power in Russia, its people experienced difficult economic conditions. Actually, like most of newly born republics, Russia entered the post-Soviet era in a state of serious disorder and economic chaos. In 1991 alone, GDP fell by about one-sixth, and the budget deficit was about a quarter of GDP. Price control policies on most commodities led to their scarcity. Until 1991, only a handful of essential items were available in retail stores. The entire distribution system was on the verge of collapse. Soviet industry, once one of the largest in the world, crashed. Meanwhile, US administrations even refrained from supporting Russia's pro-Western government and went so far as to undermine Russian military and political power.
Understanding the effects of this historic humiliation in Putin's way of designing his policies, especially over the past decade, for restoring Russia's military and economic power and international position, and also for confronting the US-led interventionist and unilateralist policies of geopolitical rivalries around the world is essential and the first step to an analysis of the Russian operation.
Madeleine Albright, the US Secretary of State from 1997 to 2001, in an article published by the New York Times wrote that "in early 2000, I became the first senior U.S. official to meet with Vladimir Putin in his new capacity as acting president of Russia. We in the Clinton administration did not know much about him at the time…. He claimed to understand why the Berlin Wall had to fall but had not expected the whole Soviet Union to collapse. Putin is embarrassed by what happened to his country and determined to restore its greatness.”
Waiting for zero hour
The sense of historical humiliation of Russians and individuals like Putin caused by Russia's defeat from the West over the past two decades, along with NATO efforts to expand eastward and tighten the siege of Moscow, solidified the Kremlin leaders' determination to confront the West with full force and prevent a repeat of the defeat. The Western push to put strains on Russia through NATO expansion in Eastern Europe and even the establishment of US military bases in the Russian backyard in Central Asia virtually undermined the position of pro-Western political forces in Russia and boosted the Putin-held view of the need to restore Russian power to counter Western hegemony. The campaign against Ukraine could open a window to realization of taking revenge on the West for collapse of the Soviet Union. In other words, Putin has always been seeking a way to reverse the Soviet defeat.
But the reason why Putin chose this specific time for his campaign in Ukraine is the downturn in the US economic, political, and military power and the gap in the both sides of the Atlantic. Repeated confessions by the American politicians and strategists to the start of the decline of the country and the inability to continue the role of the international police, along with the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the escalation of internal crises in American society, made Putin think that the current time is exceptional to fully destroy NATO expansion project through a massive military action.
Russian goals and Ukraine future scenarios
A lighting operation made the Russian forces reach the capital Kiev within three days, leaving no doubt that it could fall any moment. This quick progress, meeting massive criticism from the West, can give rise to some scenarios : The first scenario is a complete military occupation of Ukraine. This scenario, however, seems very unlikely given Russia's position, but Putin intends to completely destroy Ukraine's military and nuclear capabilities in any way possible, leaving it without threats to Russia and unable to decide on NATO membership in the future.
The second scenario can be based on Russian military action to ensure the full independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and forcing away threats and military action by Kiev. Under this scenario, the strategic goal of conducting military operations in Ukraine is to send a strong and ultimate message to Eastern European countries that intend to join NATO, as well as to NATO for its efforts to stretch to Russia's borders. On Saturday, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova issued a warning to Sweden and Finsld, both close to Russia, for possible accession to the NATO.
"Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries," she warned adding: "Clearly [the] accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, which is first and foremost a military alliance, would have serious military-political repercussions that would demand a response from our country."
Apparently, the separation of two regions from Ukraine's territory as a punitive measure against Kiev makes Russia's threats and warnings to the countries of Eastern Europe quite real and with realization possibility.
The third scenario is Luhansk and Donetsk joining of Russia after a referendum like what happened in Crimea Peninsula in 2014 in which 96 percent of people voted in favor of Russian Federation membership. With a large part of their population Russian-speaking, Luhansk and Donetsk have the potential to repeat Crimea scenario.
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