Showing posts with label military provocation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label military provocation. Show all posts

Saturday, July 06, 2019

Rather Dangerous US Manoeuvres Around Iran

740
The US-Iranian front has recently seen lightning speed developments that keep spreading over an ever increasing number of regions, Presidents and Prime Ministers of many countries, as well as the leaders of various institutions, foundations and companies. International media provide various kinds of comment, articles, essays, hypotheses and forecasts that have literally flooded newspapers, magazines, radio and TV. Everyman can hardly cope with this information overdose and finds it difficult to make anything out in the subtleties of the foreign policy the White House is carrying out at the moment where rules can hardly be found.

Let us try to get at least a general idea of what is going on in the Persian Gulf. Let us begin with outlining the basics of Donald Trump’s policy. In the course of his electoral campaign, he provided a clear picture of his stance on Iran that secured at least several dozens of thousands of votes for him: the deal ex-president Barack Obama had made with the Iranian ayatollahs did not prove very expedient for the American people, which is why he would put an end to it and then, as soon as Tehran finds itself kneeling, he would make a new deal which would be fully advantageous for the US.

Donald Trump kept the first part of his promise and, with pomp and circumstance, abandoned the international nuclear deal with Tehran, which by the way had been signed not only by the US, but also by a number of European countries. However, he encountered a minor problem: how does one get Tehran to make a new deal on the conditions the US wants? And it was here that Mr. Trump failed to take one fact into consideration: Iran is a sovereign state, a member state of many international organizations. The Iranians are entitled to have their own pride, dignity and love of freedom which prevents them from appeasing the whims of such an inconsistent President and acquiescing to the US requests.
In this case, Donald Trump, minding the coming elections and a possible decline of his prestige, cannot break his promises. What is he to do? As is his habit, the President began by imposing unlawful sanctions on the Iranians trying to smother them with famine and the deficit of basic medicine and cutting-edge medical equipment. And after he failed, he resorted to the threats of using force as he kept sending more troops to the region. At the same time, aided by his Arab allies, he organized a number of provocations, such as tanker explosions in the Persian Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman. Finally, a state-of-the-art drone and a reconnaissance plane were sent to Iran’s air domain. It is clear that, having deliberately sent its troops to death (as the White House expected the Iranian antiaircraft to shoot them down), Washington D.C. was going to use this terrible and bloody provocation against Iran. The loss of the 35 reconnaissance plane crew members would have shaken the whole American nation and provided Donald Trump with a lawful pretext to launch any kind of attack on Iran, including a possible nuclear strike. The verisimilitude of such deliberation is proved by the fact that the US President did indeed order to attack Iran, but later cancelled the order.

As for the possible death of millions of civilians, the agents provocateurs failed to take it into consideration, as they had done before. It would suffice to remember the atomic bombing of the civilians of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the wide use of internationally outlawed chemicals (defoliants) in the whole territory of Vietnam, the use of depleted uranium shell heads in Iraq, the use of chemical weapons against the civilians of Al-Fallujah (Iraq) who dared to oppose the US occupants, 70% of whom were Iraqi women raped by the US fighters for democracy. This list can go on forever if we mention numerous other instances that took place in many countries of Latin America, Africa, Asia and Europe where the US conquerors left their traces.

Any sane person reading these lines would surely ask themselves: how is all this possible in our modern age? Is it some wild version of the Middle Ages when women used to be burnt at the stake, when rack and other instruments of torture were used to make a person captured by the Holy Inquisition confess that he was indeed a devil worshipper, a sorcerer, etc. However, if one knows a thing or two about the history of the US that finds itself in the backyard of the global civilization and moral development, it comes as no surprise.

The Mayflower ship that pulled in to the American shore on November 21, 1620 brought some 102 Pilgrims who later founded a new colony that later became the United States of America. However, the descendants of those Pilgrims account for less than 1% of the country’s population. And who were the others? At the time, European states trying to purge their lands of criminals would send convicts of all kinds to the American colony: murderers, thugs, rapists, thieves and other crooks.

One cannot help feeling that certain US establishment officials inherited these ill genetic qualities of their forefathers, which proceeded to shape their personalities and behaviour. This explains the urge to intimidate the rest of the world, to sack, to unlawfully capture other people’s property, and if they fail, then to destroy these others, just as their forefathers did with the Indian population, the lawful owner of the American land. Do you think they are ashamed of the instance when blankets contaminated with chickenpox were given to the Indians which resulted in the deaths of men, women and children? No, they are not only reluctant to pay compensation to their descendants, but also designing biological and other kinds of deadly weapons that would serve to kill millions of innocent lives.

True, for the moment, the White House is trying to show small concessions to Iran by conducting some kind of secret talks that are allegedly underway in the Oman Sultanate and Kuwait. Just like those medieval plunderers who, after failing to vanquish the guards of a rich caravan, would retreat to the desert with new forays in mind.

But why not have open talks, rather than secret ones, if they do not serve some malignant purpose?

The US call for parley are a ruse to make our country lay down her arms, said ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran and the Islamic Revolution. “Talks are a ruse to get what they want. They say: lay down your arms so that I could treat you any which way I like. Is that talks?” said Khamenei. At the same time, the Iranian leader emphasised that the US authorities treat the Iranians unfairly by imposing harsh sanctions against them.

Are talks feasible? Not at the moment. However, Donald Trump has to hurry, the elections are due soon and he must be very successful in order to make a strong impression on the electorate. As for Iran, it has seen decades of barbaric sanctions since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, so if it has to tolerate them a bit longer, it will, but it would hardly ever bow and scrape before Washington DC.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

Saturday, June 29, 2019

USA Once Again on its Favorite Path Towards War Against Iran

Viktor Mikhin

8112

The latest events pertaining to Iran are very much reminiscent of those transpiring in Europe right before the Fist World War. Tensions were high, all the nations were ready for the ‘big fight’ and were simply waiting for an excuse to start it. And then the opportune moment arrived when a 19-year old Bosnian Serb, Gavrilo Princip, who was a member of a terrorist organization, assassinated the heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, and his morganatic wife, Sophie Chotek, on 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo.

In this case, the trigger for the attack on Iran was meant to be a provocative violation of this nation’s airspace by an American drone and a reconnaissance aircraft with 35 servicemen on board following the unmanned aerial vehicle. The unfortunate fate that had awaited them (i.e. being shot down by Iranian air defense systems) was supposed to signal the start of an aerial attack by U.S. forces on Iran, involving a heavy deployment of modern missiles and possibly low-yield nuclear weapons. These plans were already at the Pentagon, and in order to justify their execution, an American spokesperson was prepared to give a pre-prepared speech at just the right time during a United Nations Security Council emergency session. These were the plans concocted in Washington that did not come to fruition.

The Iranian leadership behaved in a much more rational and cautious manner than the US command and Donald Trump’s cronies. The Iranian air defense systems only shot down the drone and not the military aircraft with people on board. After all no one starts a war over a heap of metal when there have been no human casualties. Just recall the events in Sarajevo.

The Commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, stated that Iran chose not to shoot down the U.S. aircraft that was following the unmanned aerial vehicle.  “Along with the US drone, there was also an American P-8 plane with 35 people on board. This plane also entered our airspace and we could have targeted it, but we did not because our purpose behind shooting down the American drone was to give a warning to terrorist American forces,” said Amir Ali Hajizadeh.  He added that the Iranian military had sent two “warnings” to the American unmanned aerial vehicle before it was shot down.

We would like to remind our readers that on 3 July 1988, an Airbus A300B2-203 passenger plane (commercial flight IR655, operated by Iran Air), flying from Tehran via Bandar Abbas to Dubai over the Persian Gulf, was unceremoniously shot down by a surface-to-air missile, fired from USS Vincennes (a guided missile cruiser of the United States Navy), 7 minutes after he had left Bandar Abbas. American servicemen had not sent any warnings, they were simply having some fun on the missile cruiser. Recently, Iranians could have chosen to follow in U.S. footsteps and brought down the American aircraft with ease, but instead Tehran made a decision not to shoot down the American reconnaissance airplane that had violated their air space.

This time around, Donald Trump’s and his adviser’s plans to start a war against Iran were postponed for a later date, but most certainly not abandoned. It is also important to mention that there is a fierce debate over policy towards Iran in the United States right now. The so-called ‘B-team’, which includes the National Security Advisor of the United States, John R. Bolton, a number of leaders in the Middle Eastern region (including Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi) as well as the Senior Advisor to the U. S. President and the latter’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has been desperately trying to get Donald Trump to fall into the Iranian trap. But being an experienced businessman, the President clearly understands that his power does not lie in the deployment of military forces. Plus the Iranian adventure would not be a walk in the park. As in an event of a war, Donald Trump’s ‘die hard fans’, the democrats, are bound to start the impeachment process against him. Hence the predicament that the U.S. President finds himself in: he is willing to apply non-stop pressure on his partners but not engage in military operations.

Evidence to this includes rather vague factual statements, publicized by the well-informed Reuters News Agency, that say Donald Trump had sent a message, via Oman, to Iran warning Tehran about the impending attacks against it, and giving its leadership a ‘limited’ amount of time to respond. The American President said that he preferred negotiations to war in his ‘letter’. “Reports that a message was passed last night to the Iranians via an Omani back channel are completely false. These reports are pure Iranian propaganda,” stated Morgan Ortagus, the Spokesperson for the United States Department of State. Kayvan Khosravi, the Spokesman of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, also denied that Tehran had received such a message.

Arguably, this is the first time that Washington and Tehran have been able to agree on something. And the speed with which both sides repudiated the statement, made by the Reuters News Agency, only lends credence to the story that such a message had actually been sent by Donald Trump. After all, the adage does say ‘there is no smoke without fire’.
The possibility of a war between the United States and Iran is becoming more real, and Donald Trump’s allies will continue with their attempts to depict Iran as a threat, as was the case with Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. “A US war with Iran looms. Don’t for one second think that it is justified,” writes Owen Jones, a Guardian columnist, who is well-versed on this particular subject.  According to the political commentator, “We must not fall into step with their prefab bloodlust. We know how the story goes. The decision for war is made long in advance.”

However, there is another aspect to this story. Clearly, the leader of the largest super-power in the world has not been making empty threats, but still they should not be perceived at face value, since they are an integral part of national as well as foreign policies of the United States. The White House has issued such threats on numerous occasions before against Russia, the PRC, the DPRK and other countries but usually such words have not translated into action. Donald Trump prefers to only frighten his partners on the world stage, but so far he has not been tempted to engage in military action. However, there may come a time when the President’s advisers and cronies will manage to create such an environment that Donald Trump has no other recourse but to resort to the use of force (against his will and better judgement).

Seemingly, this must have been the aim of sending the drone and the U.S. reconnaissance aircraft to Iranian airspace. Still, this time around Iranians saw through the devious scheme and only shot down the American drone. It is quite clear that it is impossible to start a military conflict over one unmanned aerial vehicle. Thankfully, the war has been avoided this time around.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
https://journal-neo.org/2019/06/27/usa-once-again-on-its-favorite-path-towards-war-against-iran/