Washington may be biting off more than it can chew: escalating over Hormuz could trigger a wider confrontation, undermine U.S. credibility, and expose the limits of American power.
Aleena Im
Speaking at a police academy on Long Island, New York, US President Donald Trump said, “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States. Essentially, that’s what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to.” A wise person would laugh and dismiss this statement, considering it ‘just one of those things that Trump says.’ However, the statement could be signalling something deeper at this critical juncture. The real question that needs to be asked is:
None of the Arab states wants a war with Iran, and their increasing frustration with Trump and his plans is becoming clearer and clearer
Is Washington defending freedom of navigation—or attempting to turn military dominance into territorial ownership?
Why did Trump make this statement?
The Hormuz Strait is, and will remain, under the control of the Iranian military, and there is no way the US military can physically remove Iran from its geographic location. So why did Trump make this absurd statement? One reason could just be Trump’s dour mood at the state of affairs. The other, more dangerous one, is that maybe there are some discussions happening in Washington along these lines. Is Trump discussing a way out with his senior military commanders? Conventional military force is clearly not a viable option, so is the US really considering tactical nuclear weapons? Whatever the way out, Trump’s motivation seems simple: The war must end, one way or the other. Why?
The first reason is that Trump supporters, known as the MAGA (Make America Great Again) base, are rapidly losing faith in him since they firmly believe that the US should not be involved in an external ‘West Asia conflict’.
Secondly, on 3rd November, the crucial midterm elections are taking place in the US, where the new US Congress will be elected. If the majority appears to be Democrats, Trump could face significant difficulties.
Thirdly, Trump signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (IMoU). The problem is that this MoU seems skewed in Iran’s favour and accepts most of the demands of the Iranians. However, this has greatly angered the Americans. The question on everyone’s mind is, ‘Why did President Trump sign an agreement with these conditions? America would never accept defeat’. The public sentiment seems to be the primary reason why Trump restarted the war after the signing of the MoU, and he must feel the need to put all this behind him somehow.
The fourth reason is that Israeli leaders, in particular Netanyahu, are openly stating that even if President Trump stops the war, Israel will not do so.
The fifth reason is that when the US attacked Iran, thanks to Israel’s misdirection, Trump had no clear plan. The US and Israeli leadership assumed that once they took out Iran’s top leadership, they could easily instigate and support a new puppet regime. None of that happened, and conversely, the Iranian response shocked and awed the world. By attacking US military weapons and vessels, the US military bases and infrastructure in the Middle East, and by getting past Israel’s defences, Iran made a statement that echoed across the globe. Ironically, recent official reports show that the US missile and interceptor stocks are now empty.
The sixth reason is a very important one. Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of the US Central Command, is issuing statements that the war must continue. This position coincides with that of the Israeli military. Instead of posting on social media, Admiral Brad should have conveyed this to his senior commander, General Caine. In military terms, this is known as a command breakdown. The top commander of the US military is saying what Trump is not. Moreover, there are reports that the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has been at sea for the last 250 days. It has made only one port call and carries 5000 American troops. There is a lot of distress there since supplies are running low. There are even reports of eight crew members committing suicide. Can we call this a rebellion inside the US military? Something in the US military planning is amiss.
The seventh reason is the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on 8th August, which includes three prominent Muslim countries: Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. American analysts are arguing that it’s like a NATO pact where an attack on one is considered an attack on all. But the reality is that the Mecca pact is operating under the UN charter, and is not a NATO-like alliance. Today there are only three countries; tomorrow the agreement could expand further. So, Trump might want to end the Iran war as quickly as possible to halt this military alliance from further expansion.
The eighth reason could be the ever-increasing Gulf discontent with the US. None of the Arab states wants a war with Iran, and their increasing frustration with Trump and his plans is becoming clearer and clearer.
Last but not least, in January 2025, President Trump stated that a new defence system named Golden Dome will be formed to counter the self-orchestrated Chinese or Russian threats. But the ongoing war with Iran has halted its creation, as funds have been reduced drastically.
Thus, it seems like all these reasons are pushing Trump into a corner, and he is desperately trying to save face and end the war.
Iran’s Response — efiance Meets Defiance
When two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. It comes as no surprise that Tehran has rejected Trump’s assertion. Iran’s representatives maintain that the strait will remain under the sovereign control of Iran and Oman and that territorial claims of America are simply unacceptable.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated, “The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian; this strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command. The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, nor by aircraft carrier, nor by issuing an order, nor by an election speech.”
This position is based on more than military considerations and has to do with the question of national sovereignty and strategic identity. In other words, for Iran, conceding to territorial claims of America means accepting the premise that US superiority gives it the right to change regional geography.
The Strait Too Far — Power Is Not Sovereignty
The wise need to remember that while Trump can try to dominate the Hormuz waterways militarily, he does not have the option to annex the region as a part of the United States because the Strait is not terra nullius that can be claimed by power. The waters of the Strait belong to the territorial seas of Iran and Oman, where the two nations defined their maritime borders in 1974. In essence, Trump’s Hormuz declaration may be intended to project strength, but it risks exposing the limits of American power rather than demonstrating its absoluteness.
Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs
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