The Mecca Defence Pact: A Watershed Moment in the Geopolitics of the Middle East

A trilateral defence pact recently signed between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan will alter the geopolitics of the Middle East for quite some time to come.

Pranay Kumar Shome

Photo: A. HUSSAIN / EPA / ТASS

In the realm of global politics, hard power plays a prominent role. In a world where anarchy is the norm and survival becomes the de facto rule, joining forces is considered to be an act of bolstering their chances of survival. It also plays a key role in maintaining a balance of power. The Mecca Defence Pact signed between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan is an attempt by the three state actors towards maintaining a balance of power in the turbulent Middle East. Designed to integrate Saudi financial clout, Turkish defence prowess, and Pakistani conventional military strength, the pact has altered the security architecture of the Middle East. In this regard, it becomes essential to analyze the nuances of the pact on different stakeholders in the region.

While the members of the alliance have made it explicit that the pact is not directed at any country or grouping, in the realm of international politics, every small decision is made bearing in mind some geopolitical calculation

Snub to America’s Security Umbrella

Perhaps the biggest raison d’être of the pact is to overcome the uncertainties of America’s increasingly fragile security umbrella. The United States, the so-called “guardian protector” of its allies in the Middle East, was supposed to take care of the interests of its allies. Unfortunately, America’s security assurances have proven hollow in the ongoing Israel-Iran-US war in the Middle East.

Washington’s allies hosting American military bases and other strategic assets have increasingly come under Iranian attacks in the form of drones and missiles throughout the region. The first indicator of this was the brazen Israeli attack on Qatar targeting sections of the Hamas leadership in October 2025. This incident perhaps brought America’s Arab allies out of their slumber and made them realize that it is better to join forces and consolidate their strength at their own expense rather than waiting for the United States to come to their aid. A key part of this reconfiguration of the regional security is the fact that the Arab comrades of America came to the realization that, notwithstanding its deep ties with Israel, America will never be able to control Israel, much less hold Tel Aviv accountable for its illegitimate actions. It is the Israelis who call the shots, not the almighty Uncle Sam!

Hedging against Another Grouping

While the members of the alliance have made it explicit that the pact is not directed at any country or grouping, in the realm of international politics, every small decision is made bearing in mind some geopolitical calculation. In this regard, it is discernible that the pact was made as an attempt to hedge against the I2U2 grouping. Comprising India, Israel, UAE, and the United States, the grouping is both developmental as well as militaristic in its orientation.

In that regard, the Mecca pact can be read as an attempt to maintain a balance of power in the Middle East. According to the theory of defensive realism, international politics is conflictual in nature, but instead of the conflict finding its expression in open confrontation between state actors, they try to enhance their survival by joining forces. While there may or may not be the element of comradeship in the alliance, the concept of interest becomes the overarching concern. Joining forces helps in establishing a balance of power where no single actor or bloc comes to exercise hegemony; the chance of the outbreak of a conflict diminishes, and states can co-exist in equilibrium. In this context, the pact can be portrayed as maintaining such a balance of power. For Türkiye, balancing Israel and the United States is the guiding motive; for Saudi Arabia, it is UAE, and for Pakistan, it is India.

The Maritime Element

Another important aspect of this pact is its unwritten yet important component—reconfiguration of the security architecture in important maritime areas. For Türkiye, it is the Black Sea. This matter assumes significance as Israel, Greece, and Cyprus are working together to project their power in the Mediterranean Sea. For Saudi Arabia, it is the Bab-el-Mandab Strait where the Houthi group—an ally of Iran—has enforced a blockade of the maritime chokepoint and is attacking Saudi Arabia’s strategic energy and military facilities. For Pakistan, it is the Arabian Sea region that has seen increasing naval activity in recent times. In this period of time when a huge portion of global trade passes through maritime chokepoints and given the magnitude of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the stakeholders of the Mecca Defence Pact think it prudent to securitize the strategic maritime waterways in their respective backyards.

Therefore, it is clear that the geopolitics of the Middle East in the coming times will be impacted in a major way through this pact.

Pranay Kumar Shome, a research analyst who is a PhD candidate at Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Bihar, India