The American-Israeli aggression against Iran, which broke out on 28 February, is drastically reshaping not only the configuration of power in the Persian Gulf but also worldwide.
Mohammed Amer
The British magazine The Economist could not resist quoting Beijing’s thesis about the current state of America’s decline: “A group of scholars in Beijing published a report expressing their gratitude to President Trump in unmistakably sarcastic terms — thanking him for alienating America’s traditional allies, for showing the world that China is more reliable and stable, for placing economic pressure on China and thereby pushing it through towards innovation, and above all, for ‘revealing America in its imperial twilight, an exhausted and hypocritical power in decline’.”
The American administration committed a strategic miscalculation. It fundamentally misunderstood Iran — a great civilisation with a 5,000-year history, a profound culture, and a deeply rooted sense of national resilience and pride
As The New York Times observed, the attack on Iran was not merely a bad idea but a pivotal point in the decline of the American empire. The newspaper compared the process to Britain’s decline a century ago: deindustrialisation, overextension, and complacency.
Many observers and commentators suppose that the war against Iran will most likely end with an American retreat. The US-Israeli war plan was conceived as a decapitating strike against Iran and was presented to President Trump by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Mossad director Barnea. The idea was that a joint American-Israeli bombing campaign would weaken the structure of the Iranian regime to such an extent that it would collapse, providing for the United States and Israel installing a compliant government in Tehran.
Trump appears to have believed that Iran would follow in the footsteps of Venezuela. The operation in Venezuela in January 2026 overthrew President Nicolás Maduro, enabling Washington to secure a pliant government. In Iran, however, events unfolded in a different way. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps restored its internal command structure and expanded its role within the national security system. The Supreme Leader retained his position, religious circles rallied around him, and the population united in opposition to foreign attack.
The American administration committed a strategic miscalculation. It fundamentally misunderstood Iran — a great civilisation with a 5,000-year history, a profound culture, and a deeply rooted sense of national resilience and pride. American leaders underestimated Iran’s technological maturity, despite its world-class expertise in engineering and mathematics. The country has developed its own industrial base, including ballistic missiles and a domestic drone industry.
In the words of the Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera, this was neither a war of necessity nor a war of choice; it was a war of whim. The United States sought to preserve a form of global dominance it no longer possesses, while Israel attempted to establish a regional hegemony it will never attain. The likely outcome of the conflict will be a return to something close to the pre-war situation, although Iran will gain operational control over the Strait of Hormuz, while the long-term American military presence there will be substantially reduced.
Confrontation Exacerbates Both in America and Across the Globe
Many American newspapers are advancing the argument that Trump is attempting to create an imperial-style administration in which he intends to act without regard for either the Constitution or Congress. This view has also been echoed in parts of the press across the Global South. On 1 May, the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat published a piece noting that “former reality television participant Donald Trump has never been known for his modesty” and that in recent days he has begun speaking of himself as a figure possessing unprecedented historical power, even describing himself as “the most powerful man ever to have lived”.
The growing cooperation between liberal globalists within the United States and beyond is creating a new situation for Trump himself. Should the Republican Party suffer the anticipated defeat in the forthcoming elections on 3 November, he may face not only continual impeachment proceedings, but also other efforts aimed at removing him from office.
Nevertheless, Trump has established a reputation as a passionate and resilient fighter. Despite harsh attacks from his Democratic opponents, he remains highly confident and repeatedly insists that the inconveniences currently faced by Americans — particularly rising petrol prices — will be eliminated immediately after the ending of the Gulf conflict, with prices returning to pre-war levels. He also intends to proceed with his visit to Beijing scheduled for 13–15 May, hoping that his meeting with Xi Jinping will help produce a mutually acceptable resolution to the conflict with Iran. American newspapers have pointed out that Russian President Putin is expected to visit Beijing shortly after Trump.
Trump is closely monitoring movements on the American stock exchange, where share prices continue to rise. Energy corporations are among the principal beneficiaries, as the United States remains the world’s largest exporter of energy resources, while the price of Brent crude remains around 100 dollars per barrel. Demand for shares in defence industry companies has also increased, since the Gulf conflict has required expanded production of shells, missiles, and other military equipment.
Trump is reportedly seeking to combine celebrations of his eightieth birthday with commemorations marking the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, while energetically pursuing efforts to immortalize his own name.
Although the American leader’s approval ratings have declined to a certain extent in the wake of the Gulf conflict, his supporters and the Republican Party remain loyal to him. In this regard, Trump’s opponents drew attention to a joking remark he made at a conference on 4 May dedicated to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, when he suggested that he would “leave office, perhaps in eight or nine years”.
It should also be noted that opponents of the American leader frequently speculate that, should forecasts for the midterm elections on 3 November this year prove unfavourable for the Republican Party, Trump might seek to postpone them under some pretext. They also argue that, in 2028, he could make an attempt to amend the Constitution in order to seek a third presidential term, health permitting.
Mohammed Amer is a Syrian publicist and expert on current issues in global and regional politics
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